About the Authors
Pascal Quiry holds the BNP Paribas Chair in Finance at HEC Paris and he is a founder of an investment fund which specialises in investing in start-ups and unlisted SMEs. He is a former managing director in the M&A division of BNP Paribas where he was in charge of deals execution.
Yann Le Fur is head of the Corporate Finance Group of Natixis Americas after working as an investment banker for a number of years, notably with Schroders, Citi and Mediobanca and as an M&A director for Alstom.
Pierre Vernimmen, who died in 1996, was both an M&A dealmaker (he advised Louis Vuitton on its merger with Moët Hennessy to create LVMH, the world luxury goods leader) and a finance teacher at HEC Paris. His book Finance d’Entreprise was, and still is, the top-selling financial textbook in French-speaking countries and is the forebear of Corporate Finance: Theory and Practice.
Preface
This book aims to cover the full scope of corporate finance as it is practised today worldwide.
A way of thinking about finance
We are very pleased with the success of the first five editions of the book. It has encouraged us to retain the approach in order to explain corporate finance to students and professionals. There are four key features that distinguish this book from the many other corporate finance textbooks available on the market today:
- Our strong belief that financial analysis is part of corporate finance. Pierre Vernimmen, who was mentor and partner to some of us in the practice of corporate finance, understood very early on that a good financial manager must first be able to analyse a company’s economic, financial and strategic situation, and then value it, while at the same time mastering the conceptual underpinnings of all financial decisions.
- Corporate Finance is neither a theoretical textbook nor a practical workbook. It is a book in which theory and practice are constantly set off against each other, in the same way as in our daily practice as investors at Monestier capital and Natixis, as board members of several listed and unlisted companies, and as teachers notably at HEC Paris business school.
- Emphasis is placed on concepts intended to give you an understanding of situations, rather than on techniques, which tend to shift and change over time. We confess to believing that the former will still be valid in 20 years’ time, whereas the latter will, for the most part, be long forgotten!
- Financial concepts are international, but they are much easier to grasp when they are set in a familiar context. We have tried to give examples and statistics from all around the world to illustrate the concepts.
The five sections
This book starts with an introductory chapter reiterating the idea that corporate financiers are the bridge between the economy and the realm of finance. Increasingly, they must play the role of marketing managers and negotiators. Their products are financial securities that represent rights to the firm’s cash flows. Their customers are bankers and investors. A good financial manager listens to customers and sells them good products at high prices. A good financial manager always thinks in terms of value rather than costs or earnings.
Section I goes over the basics of financial analysis, i.e. understanding the company based on a detailed analysis of its financial statements. We are amazed at the extent to which large numbers of investors neglected this approach during the latest stock market euphoria. When share prices everywhere are rising, why stick to a rigorous approach? For one thing, to avoid being caught in the crash that inevitably follows.
The return to reason has also returned financial analysis to its rightful place as a cornerstone of economic decision-making. To perform financial analysis, you must first understand the firm’s basic financial mechanics (Chapters 2). Next you must master the basic techniques of accounting, including accounting principles, consolidation techniques and certain complexities (Chapters 6), based on international (IFRS) standards now mandatory in over 80 countries, including the EU (for listed companies), Australia, South Africa and accepted by the SEC for US listing. In order to make things easier for the newcomer to finance, we have structured the presentation of financial analysis itself around its guiding principle: in the long run, a company can survive only if it is solvent and creates value for its shareholders. To do so, it must generate wealth (Chapters 9 and 10), invest (Chapter 11), finance its investments (Chapter 12) and generate a sufficient return (Chapter 13). The illustrative financial analysis of the Italian appliance manufacturer Indesit will guide you throughout this section of the book.
Section II reviews the basic theoretical knowledge you will need to make an assessment of the value of the firm. Here again, the emphasis is on reasoning, which in many cases will become automatic (Chapters 15): efficient capital markets, the time value of money, the price of risk, volatility, arbitrage, return, portfolio theory, present value and future value, market risk, beta, etc. Then we review the major types of financial securities: equity, debt and options, for the purposes of valuation, along with the techniques for issuing and placing them (Chapters 20).
Section III, is devoted to value, to its theoretical foundations and to its computation. Value is the focus of any financier, both its measure and the way it is shared. Over the medium term, creating value is, most of the time, the first aim of managers (Chapters 26).
In Section IV, “Corporate financial policies”, we analyse each financial decision in terms of:
- value in the context of the theory of efficient capital markets;
- balance of power between owners and managers, shareholders and debtholders (agency theory);
- communication (signal theory).
Such decisions include choosing a capital structure, investment decisions, cost of capital, dividend policy, share repurchases, capital increases, hybrid security issues, etc.
In this section, we draw your attention to today’s obsession with earnings per share, return on equity and other measures whose underlying basis we have a tendency to forget and which may, in some cases, be only distantly related to value creation. We have devoted considerable space to the use of options (as a technique or a type of reasoning) in each financial decision (Chapter 32).
When you start reading Section V, “Financial management”, you will be ready to examine and take the remaining decisions: how to create and finance a start-up, how to organise a company’s equity capital and its governance, buying and selling companies, mergers, demergers, LBOs, bankruptcy and restructuring (Chapter 40). Lastly, this section presents working capital management, cash management, the management of the firm’s financial risks and its operational real estate assets (Chapter 49).
Last but not least, the epilogue addresses the question of the links between finance and strategy.
Suggestions for the reader
To make sure that you get the most out of your book, each chapter ends with a summary and a series of problems and questions (over 800 with the solutions provided). We’ve used the last page of the book to provide a crib sheet (the nearly 1,000 pages of this book summarised on one page!). For those interested in exploring the topics in greater depth, there is an end-of-chapter bibliography and suggestions for further reading, covering fundamental research papers, articles in the press, published books and websites. A large number of graphs and tables (over 100!) have been included in the body of the text and these can be used for comparative analyses. Finally, there is a fully comprehensive index.
An Internet site with huge and diversified content
www.vernimmen.com provides free access to tools (formulas, tables, statistics, lexicons, glossaries); resources that supplement the book (articles, prospectuses of financial transactions, financial figures for over 16,000 European, North American and emerging countries, listed companies, thesis topics, thematic links, a list of must-have books for your bookshelf, an Excel file providing detailed solutions to all of the problems set in the book); plus problems, case studies and quizzes for testing and improving your knowledge. There is a letterbox for your questions to the authors (we reply within 72 hours, unless, of course, you manage to stump us!). There are questions and answers and much more. The site has its own internal search engine, and new services are added regularly.
A teachers’ area provides teachers with free access to case studies, slides and an Instructor’s Manual, which gives advice and ideas on how to teach all of the topics discussed in the book.
A free monthly newsletter on corporate finance
Since (unfortunately) we can’t bring out a new edition of this book every month, we have set up the Vernimmen.com Newsletter, which is sent out free of charge to subscribers via the web. It contains:
- A conceptual look at topical corporate finance problems (e.g. accounting for operating and capital leases, financially managing during a deflation phase).
- Statistics and tables that you are likely to find useful in the day-to-day practice of corporate finance (e.g. corporate income tax rates, debt ratios in LBOs).
- A critical review of a financial research paper with a concrete dimension (e.g. the real effect of corporate cash, why don’t US issuers demand European fees for their IPOs?).
- A question left on the vernimmen.com site by a visitor plus a response (e.g. Why do successful groups have such a low debt level? What is an assimilation clause?).
- A catch up of our last posts on LinkedIn and Facebook.
Subscribe to www.vernimmen.com and become one of the many readers of the Vernimmen.com Newsletter.
And lastly a LinkedIn and Facebook page
We publish daily comments on financial news that we deem to be of interest, answer questions from web-users and publish finance- and business-related quotes. These could come in useful when preparing for a job interview or serve as food for thought for those of you wanting to take time out and think about what’s going on in the corporate and financial world.
Many thanks
- To Maurizio Dallocchio and Antonio Salvi, our co-authors of the previous editions (whose many hectic activities have led them to be unable to participate in the current work).
- To Patrice Carlean-Jones, Matthew Cush, Anthony de Rauville, Sandra Dupouy, Robert Killingsworth, Franck Megel, François Meunier, Pascale Mourvillier, John Olds, Françoise Quiry, Pierre Quiry, Gita Roux, Steven Sklar, Marc Vermeulen, Julie Watremez and students of the HEC Paris for their help in improving the manuscript since its inception.
- To Gemma Valler and Purvi Patel, our editors, to Elaine Bingham, Manikandan Kuppan and for their help to improve the manuscript.
- To Altimir Perrody, the vernimmen.com webmaster.
- Our colleagues at Natixis New York and HEC, in particular Blaise Allaz, Olivier Bossard, Lily Cheung, Paul Monange, Michael Moravec, Yohan Quere, Alessandra Rey and Robert White.
- Thanks to the BNP Paribas Chair in Corporate Finance at HEC Paris for its support.
- And last but not least to Françoise and Anne-Valérie; our children Paul, Claire, Pierre, Philippe, Soazic, Solène and Aymeric and our many friends who have had to endure our endless absences over the last years, and of course Catherine Vernimmen and her children for their everlasting and kind support.
We hope that you will gain as much enjoyment from your copy of this book – whether you are a new student of corporate finance or are using it to revise and hone your financial skills – as we have had in editing this edition and in expanding the services and products that go with it.
We wish you well in your studies!
Paris, New York, December 2021
Pascal Quiry Yann Le Fur
Frequently used symbols
$A^N_k$ | Annuity factor for N years and an interest rate of k |
ABCP | Asset-Backed Commercial Paper |
ADR | American Depositary Receipt |
AGM | Annual General Meeting |
APT | Arbitrage Pricing Theory |
APV | Adjusted Present Value |
BIMBO | Buy-In Management Buy-Out |
BV | Book Value |
BV/S | Book Value per Share |
CAGR | Compound Annual Growth Rate |
Capex | Capital Expenditures |
CAPM | Capital Asset Pricing Model |
CB | Convertible Bond |
CD | Certificate of Deposit |
CE | Capital Employed |
CFROI | Cash Flow Return On Investment |
COV | Covariance |
CVR | Contingent Value Right |
D | Debt, net financial and banking debt |
d | Payout ratio |
DCF | Discounted Cash Flows |
DDM | Dividend Discount Model |
DECS | Debt Exchangeable for Common Stock; Dividend Enhanced Convertible Securities |
Div | Dividend |
DPS | Dividend Per Share |
EBIT | Earnings Before Interest and Taxes |
EBITDA | Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortisation |
ECP | European Commercial Paper |
EGM | Extraordinary General Meeting |
EMTN | Euro Medium-Term Note |
ENPV | Expanded Net Present Value |
EONIA | Euro OverNight Index Average |
EPS | Earnings Per Share |
E(r) | Expected return |
ESOP | Employee Stock Ownership Programme |
Euribor | Euro Interbank Offered Rate |
EV | Enterprise Value |
EVA | Economic Value Added |
f | Forward rate |
F | Cash flow |
FA | Fixed Assets |
FASB | Financial Accounting Standards Board |
FC | Fixed Costs |
FCF | Free Cash Flow |
FCFE | Free Cash Flow to Equity |
FCFF | Free Cash Flow to Firm |
FE | Financial Expenses |
FIFO | First In, First Out |
FRA | Forward Rate Agreement |
g | Growth rate |
GAAP | Generally Accepted Accounting Principles |
GDR | Global Depositary Receipt |
i | After-tax cost of debt |
IAS | International Accounting Standards |
IASB | International Accounting Standards Board |
IFRS | International Financial Reporting Standard |
IPO | Initial Public Offering |
IRR | Internal Rate of Return |
IRS | Interest Rate Swap |
IT | Income Taxes |
k | Cost of capital, discount rate |
kD | Cost of debt |
kE | Cost of equity |
K | Option strike price |
LBO | Leveraged Buyout |
LBU | Leveraged Build-Up |
L/C | Letter of Credit |
LIBOR | London Interbank Offered Rate |
LIFO | Last In, First Out |
LMBO | Leveraged Management Buyout |
ln | Naperian logarithm |
LOI | Letter Of Intent |
m | Contribution margin |
MOU | Memorandum Of Understanding |
MTN | Medium-Term Notes |
MVA | Market Value Added |
n | Years, periods |
N | Number of years |
N(d) | Cumulative standard normal distribution |
NA | Not Available |
NAV | Net Asset Value |
NM | Not Meaningful |
NOPAT | Net Operating Profit After Tax |
NPV | Net Present Value |
OTC | Over The Counter |
P | Price |
PBO | Projected Benefit Obligation |
PBR | Price-to-Book Ratio |
PBT | Profit Before Tax |
P/E ratio | Price/Earnings ratio |
PEPs | Personal Equity Plans |
PERCS | Preferred Equity Redemption Cumulative Stock |
PSR | Price-to-Sales Ratio |
P-to-P | Public-to-Private |
PV | Present Value |
PVI | Present Value Index |
QIB | Qualified Institutional Buyer |
r | Rate of return, interest rate |
rF | Risk-free rate |
rM | Expected return of the market |
RNAV | Restated Net Asset Value |
ROA | Return On Assets |
ROCE | Return On Capital Employed |
ROE | Return On Equity |
ROI | Return On Investment |
RWA | Risk-Weighted Assessment |
S | Sales |
SEC | Securities and Exchange Commission |
SEO | Seasoned Equity Offering |
SPV | Special Purpose Vehicle |
STEP | Short-Term European Paper |
t | Time |
T | Time remaining until maturity |
Tc | Corporate tax rate |
TSR | Total Shareholder Return |
UCITS | Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities |
V | Value |
VD | Value of Debt |
VE | Value of Equity |
V(r) | Variance of return |
VAT | Value Added Tax |
VC | Variable Cost |
WACC | Weighted Average Cost of Capital |
WC | Working Capital |
y | Yield to maturity |
YTM | Yield To Maturity |
Z | Scoring function |
ZBA | Zero Balance Account |
β or βE | Beta coefficient for a share or an equity instrument |
βA | Beta coefficient for an asset or unlevered beta |
βD | Beta coefficient of a debt instrument |
σ(r) | Standard deviation of return |
ρ(A, B) | Correlation coefficient of return between shares A and B |
Chapter 1. TOWARDS A GREEN, RESPONSIBLE AND SUSTAINABLE CORPORATE FINANCE
Trailer for a changing world…
The primary role of the financial manager is to ensure that their company has a sufficient supply of capital.
The financial manager or CFO (chief financial officer) is at the crossroads of the real economy, with its industries and services, and the world of finance, with its various financial markets and structures.
They also have two other roles: that of a controller of the risks and commitments made by the company, thereby ensuring its sustainability; and that of a strategist, which can make them invaluable to the executive.
The financial manager operates in an environment that is undergoing irreversible change due to growing environmental, social and governance concerns within the company. This change is naturally and durably affecting corporate finance, strongly since 2017–2018, and at a speed that has accelerated considerably in 2020–2021.
We believe that this development in corporate finance is so important that we will discuss it in the first three sections of this introductory chapter, before returning to the functions of the CFO, who has a part to play in the area of energy and social transition.
Section 1.1 AN UNPRECEDENTED CHANGE UNDERWAY
The years between 2015 and 2020 saw an irreversible upswing in concern for the environment, social responsibility and sustainability in finance, and in particular in corporate finance, to such an extent that we predict, in a slightly pretentious way, that corporate finance will in the future be green, responsible and sustainable, or it will not be at all!
1/ SOME EMBLEMATIC FACTS
Here are some recent facts, among others, which illustrate this acceleration in ecological, social and sustainable awareness in the financial world:
- Financial analysts from the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world, Norway’s oil fund, which manages around €1,133bn, are now accompanied by environmental, social and governance (ESG) analysts when they hold meetings with managers of any of the 9,123 companies in which the fund is a shareholder or is considering becoming one;
- Danone (in 2020) and Kering are now presenting new financial tools (decarbonised earnings per share for Danone and environmental income statement for Kering) to measure the impact of the group on carbon emission or environment;
- In 2018, the CEO of Blackrock – the largest asset manager in the world with close to €7,400bn in assets under management – wrote in the annual letter to the CEOs of major groups worldwide in which Blackrock has invested money:
- “Society is demanding that companies, both public and private, serve a social purpose. To prosper over time, every company must not only deliver financial performance, but also show how it makes a positive contribution to society. Companies must benefit all of their stakeholders, including shareholders, employees, customers, and the communities in which they operate”.
- As early as 2016, Larry Finck wrote in his annual letter to the CEOs: “Over the long term, environmental, social and governance issues – from climate change to diversity and including board efficiency – have real and quantifiable financial impacts.”
- In March 2018, the European Commission published its “strategy to bring the financial system to support the European Union’s climate and sustainable development agenda”, which will involve:
- “– establishing a common language for sustainable finance, i.e. a unified EU classification system – or taxonomy – to define what is sustainable and identify areas where sustainable investment can make the biggest impact;
- – creating EU labels for green financial products on the basis of this EU classification system: this will allow investors to easily identify investments that comply with green or low-carbon criteria;
- – clarifying the duty of asset managers and institutional investors to take sustainability into account in the investment process and enhance disclosure requirements;
- – requiring insurance and investment firms to advise clients on the basis of their preferences on sustainability;
- – incorporating sustainability in prudential requirements: banks and insurance companies are an important source of external finance for the European economy. The Commission will explore the feasibility of recalibrating capital requirements for banks (the so-called green supporting factor) for sustainable investments, when it is justified from a risk perspective, while ensuring that financial stability is safeguarded;
- – enhancing transparency in corporate reporting: we propose to revise the guidelines on non-financial information to further align them with the recommendations of the Financial Stability Board’s Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD).”
- In 2019, a large European bank, Natixis, introduced a voluntary mechanism for the internal allocation of prudential capital, which lowers the cost of financing with a positive impact on the environment, to the detriment of financing with a negative impact, thus increasing its cost. Moreover, it directs its commitments towards actors with a positive approach in this area.
2/ OLD OR RECENT ROOTS
We may well wonder why this is happening now and not five or ten years ago, or in four to five years’ time. It’s difficult to say. Like all groundswell movements, it started as the result of several factors, has been developing gradually and slowly over time and now that has gained momentum, it’s shaking up the whole system.
Environmental urgency is another factor: the depletion of the earth’s resources, which may well turn out to be a surmountable problem given human ingenuity, and global warming, which it is to be feared may well be a problem that we have underestimated.
It is undeniable that the 2007–2008 financial crisis had a major impact on how we see the world, probably more so than any other financial crisis, apart from the 1929 crisis. It naturally impacted on the way finance directors exercise financial management.1 It also had a major impact on the general public who discovered that a financial product, sub-primes,2 involved getting clients to borrow more than what was reasonable while getting others to take on the risk in order to get rich at their expense, with no regard for the consequences. This is now seen as morally unacceptable. Never again.
Finally, a disenchantment with ideologies and the growing difficulties that governments are experiencing in maintaining their traditional post-World War II roles of protector and distributor of resources, mean that individuals are now seeking meaning in what they spend most of their lives doing, which is working. Young people in particular want a mission in life and not a job, a mentor rather than a boss, and they want to make an impact and see meaning in what they do. Today, a lot more is expected from companies than in the past. More and more corporate people think that the company has a purpose and that it contributes to the common interest.
Without being cynical, we should also not overlook the phenomenon of lemming behaviour which is something we’re very familiar with in the world of finance. Companies seem to be competing against each other in the increasingly ambitious ESG statements that they put out. This is not cause for complaint, but now they’re going to have to deliver.
Section 1.2 A DECISIVE IMPETUS FROM INVESTORS
What concrete forms does all this take?
Among investors, concerns about socially responsible investment (SRI) first arose in the 18th century in religious communities (Quakers, Methodists), which forbade their members from investing in companies that produced weapons, alcohol or tobacco.
Environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria have emerged to enable investors wishing to work towards this goal to select the companies they consider to be the most virtuous in these areas. They constitute the three pillars of extra-financial analysis that complement the financial analysis of the accounts that we present in Section I of this book:
- The environmental criterion covers the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, the recycling of waste, the management of scarce resources (raw materials, water, etc.) and the prevention of environmental risks.
- The social criterion takes into account accident prevention, staff training, respect for employee rights, employment of disabled people, management of the subcontracting chain, and more generally the quality of social dialogue.
- The governance criterion mainly covers the independence of the board of directors, the company’s management structure, the transparency of executive compensation, the fight against corruption, and the increase in the number of women on the board of directors and the executive committee. It is detailed in Chapter 43.
Around $30,700bn is managed around the world using ESG criteria,3 i.e. a third of all financial assets under management but 49% in Europe, which is leading the world in this field. The strategies implemented are more or less intense: the Best in Class strategy advocates investing within a sector in the best performing companies from an ESG point of view; the Best Effort strategy is less radical in its selection because it includes more broadly the companies with the best ESG progress. The norm-based screening strategy sets minimum ESG standards for a company to be included in a portfolio.
Some investors wish to go further and have developed SRI (socially responsible investment) defined as “an investment that aims to achieve a social and environmental impact by financing companies and public entities that contribute to sustainable development regardless of their sector of activity. By influencing the governance and behaviour of stakeholders, SRI encourages a responsible economy.”4
In the field of unlisted investments, impact funds aim to generate a positive social and environmental impact in addition to a financial return. The remuneration of their managers is linked to the achievement of predetermined non-financial objectives.
In Section 8.2, 4/, we maintain that from a strictly financial point of view, the most important men and women in a company are its shareholders. SRI is an illustration of this as by overweighting or underweighting certain companies in their portfolios (or even totally eliminating them) investors, like other stakeholders, exercise media and financial pressure on these companies, making them more expensive to finance, leading in the long run to a reduction in their activities.
In May 2021, Engine No. 1 – a small American investment fund with a 0.02% stake in ExxonMobil (market capitalisation of €200bn) – succeeded in rallying the majority of the American oil company’s shareholders to elect as directors three people who wanted ExxonMobil to initiate its energy transition, as opposed to three other candidates who were in favour of the status quo and who were supported by the management.
Although there have long been doubts about the compatibility of responsible investment with financial performance, a number of empirical studies have shown that SRI funds achieve identical or better performances than conventional funds. A Russel Investment5 study shows that asset managers that create the most value already have a large number of stocks that comply with ESG criteria in their portfolios.
Section 1.3 BUSINESS BEHAVIOUR AND THEIR FINANCING ARE GRADUALLY CHANGING
Under pressure from investors and society in general, companies are becoming aware of their corporate social responsibility (CSR), defined, for example, by the European Union as: “The voluntary integration of social and environmental concerns by companies into their business activities and their relations with their stakeholders. Being socially responsible means not only fully complying with applicable legal obligations, but also going beyond them and investing ‘more’ in human capital, the environment and stakeholder relations.”
1/ THE EMERGENCE OF GREEN AND RESPONSIBLE FINANCING
When it comes to financing of companies, volumes of green or sustainable financing are still marginal at this stage, but have increased sharply. Today we get green bonds (Section 20.4), green loans (Section 21.2) and social bonds (Section 20.4).
Green bonds are conventional bonds in terms of their financial flows so the innovation here is not financial! Their green status stems from the issuer’s undertaking to use the funds for investing or spending that is positive for the environment (as defined by the company, which is generally assisted by an independent firm). Social bonds finance socially responsible projects.
Monitoring spending and allocating a source of financing to a particular use requires a specific type of organisation that financial departments are not accustomed to. And it has a cost, borne by companies as long as investors are not prepared to pay more for green bonds than for conventional bonds.
Standards for green, social and more generally responsible bonds are established by the ICMA,6 which publishes the Green Bonds Principles and Social Bonds Principles. This is important as investors rely on these standards in order to demonstrate that their investments are SRI compliant and that these bonds are eligible for inclusion in their funds or their asset portfolios dedicated to such investments.
Companies have another financial tool they can use for ESG policy implementation: green or responsible revolving credit facilities (RCFs7). Unlike bonds, these facilities do not require funds to be used for ESG projects (this would be complicated as for large groups, these facilities are mostly back-up undrawn credit lines). Their ESG aspect comes from the fact that their cost (and thus the banks’ remuneration) depends on the company achieving ESG goals. The relevance of these goals is initially validated by an independent agency and is subject to monitoring while the credit facility is active. We note that these products entail an ESG cost both for the company and the bank financing it! At this stage, the variability of the credit margin, which is dependent on whether the ESG goals are achieved or not, is still only a few basis points.
Notwithstanding the above, ESG-type financing products are also used to mobilise employees internally given that ESG goals become more concrete since failing to achieve them results in a (small) financial penalty and has a psychological impact that is certainly not negligible.
2/ ESG STANDARDS ARE NOT YET STABILISED
This development has brought its own problems. How do we go about assessing, rating and ranking companies on the basis of ESG criteria? What are the most relevant criteria and for whom are they relevant? Clearly, assessments should be sector-based as an agri-food business will not face the same ESG challenges as a power generating company. Agencies that rate companies on the basis of their ESG policies (Vigeo Eiris, Cicero and Sustainalytics) are emerging, the traditional rating agencies and audit firms are also seeking to get in on the act as are the certification agencies (Bureau Veritas, SGS) while standards (ISO) will soon be developed.
One of the problems that companies are having to face remains the lack of a uniform and dynamic method for selecting these criteria. New criteria are continually arising (sometimes in response to the latest trends or because new controversies have emerged) and companies are having to be agile if they want to hang onto their ratings or certifications.
One of the problems raised by green or social bonds is that funds raised must be used for ESG investments. This means they are easy to issue for very capital-intensive businesses (energy, real estate, etc.), but much trickier for knowledge-based industries (what sort of investment by an advertising agency could be classified as green or social?) So, in today’s world, these companies are unable to make use of this tool even if they happen to have impeccable ESG credentials.
This highlights the difference between the holistic and the targeted project approach to ESG. The former is clearly more ambitious but difficult to measure, standardise and grasp for anyone outside the company. There is the fear that companies may indulge in communication one-upmanship and greenwashing without taking any real action, all in the interests of political correctness. The latter approach is more concrete for investors, but involves a risk of financing companies that generally do not have very impressive ESG ambitions and only communicate on a few projects.
3/ A TOUGH CONSTRAINT
But let’s not deceive ourselves. This is most definitely not just a passing trend to which homage should be paid for a short time, before returning to the way we used to do things in the good (or rather bad) old days!
The good news is that the long-term view doesn’t seem to be exclusively focused on financial performance. From the point of view of companies, the Boston Consulting Group8 shows that, out of a sample of 343 groups in 5 sectors, companies with a high ESG score have higher margins than others. The direction of causality still needs to be determined. The fact that companies with higher ethical standards are more attractive to employees is one explanation. Other explanations also highlight better risk management as a result of ESG issues being factored in and the creation of opportunities. As an example, ArcelorMittal has announced that a new technology for treating gas produced by its Gand plant will enable it to transform gas into bio-ethanol that it will be able to sell.
Section 1.4 THE THREE ROLES OF THE FINANCIAL MANAGER
While the primary role of the corporate financial manager is to be responsible for the provision of capital to the company, they also have a role in monitoring profitability and risk, which ensures sustainability, and the ESG commitments made to the investors who finance the company. The best of them are also strategists.
1/ THE FINANCIAL MANAGER IS FIRST AND FOREMOST A SALESPERSON AND A NEGOTIATOR
(a) The financial manager’s job is not only to “buy” financial resources …
Financial managers are traditionally perceived as buyers of capital. They negotiate with a variety of investors – bankers, shareholders, bond investors – to obtain funds at the lowest possible cost.
Transactions that take place on the capital markets are made up of the following elements:
- a commodity: money;
- a price: the interest rate in the case of debt; dividends and capital gains in the case of equities.
In the traditional view, financial managers re responsible for the company’s financial procurement. Their job is to minimise the price of the commodity to be purchased, i.e. the cost of the funds they raise.
We have no intention of contesting this view of the world. It is obvious and is confirmed every day, in particular in the following types of negotiations:
- between corporate treasurers and bankers, regarding interest rates and value dates applied to bank balances (see Chapter 50);
- between CFOs and financial market intermediaries, where negotiation focuses on the commissions paid to arrangers of financial transactions (see Chapter 25).
(b) … but also to sell financial securities
That said, let’s now take a look at the financial manager’s job from a different angle:
- they are not a buyer but a seller;
- their aim is not to reduce the cost of the raw material they buy but to maximise a selling price;
- they practise their art not on the capital markets, but on the market for financial instruments, be they loans, bonds, shares, etc.
We are not changing the world here; we are merely looking at the same market from another point of view:
- the supply of financial securities corresponds to the demand for capital;
- the demand for financial securities corresponds to the supply of capital;
- the price, the point at which the supply and demand for financial securities are in equilibrium, is therefore the value of security. In contrast, the equilibrium price in the traditional view is considered to be the interest rate, or the cost of funds.
We can summarise these two ways of looking at the same capital market in the following table:
Analysis/Approach | Financial approach: financial manager as seller | Traditional approach: financial manager as purchaser |
---|---|---|
Market | Securities | Capital |
Supply | Issuers | Investors |
Demand | Investors | Issuers |
Price | Value of security | Interest rate |
Depending on your point of view, i.e. traditional or financial, supply and demand are reversed, as follows:
- when the cost of money – the interest rate, for example – rises, demand for funds is greater than supply. In other words, the supply of financial securities is greater than the demand for financial securities, and the value of the securities falls;
- conversely, when the cost of money falls, the supply of funds is greater than demand. In other words, the demand for financial instruments is greater than their supply and the value of the securities rises.
For two practical reasons, one minor and one major, we prefer to present the financial manager as a seller of financial securities.
The minor reason is that viewing the financial manager as a salesperson trying to sell their products at the highest price casts their role in a different light. As the merchant does not want to sell low-quality products but products that respond to the needs of their customers, so the financial manager must understand and satisfy the needs of their capital suppliers without putting the company or its other capital suppliers at a disadvantage. The financial manager must sell high-quality products at high prices but can also repackage the product to better meet investor expectations. Indeed, financial markets are subject to fashion: in one period convertible bonds (see Chapter 24) can be easily placed; in another period it will be syndicated loans (see Chapter 21) that investors will welcome.
The more important reason is that when a financial manager applies the traditional approach of minimising the cost of the company’s financing too strictly, erroneous decisions may easily follow. The traditional approach can make the financial manager short-sighted, tempting them to take decisions that emphasise the short term to the detriment of the long term.
For instance, choosing between a capital increase, a bank loan and a bond issue with lowest cost as the only criterion reflects flawed reasoning. Why? Because suppliers of capital, i.e. the buyers of the corresponding instruments, do not all face the same level of risk.
The cost of two sources of financing can be compared only when the suppliers of the funds incur the same level of risk.
All too often we have seen managers or treasurers assume excessive risk when choosing a source of financing because they have based their decision on a single criterion: the respective cost of the different sources of funds. For example:
- increasing short-term debt on the pretext that short-term interest rates are lower than long-term rates can be a serious mistake;
- granting a mortgage in return for a slight decrease in the interest rate on a loan can be very harmful for the future;
- increasing debt systematically on the sole pretext that debt costs less than equity capital jeopardises the company’s prospects for long-term survival.
We will develop this theme further throughout the third part of this book, but we would like to warn you now of the pitfalls of faulty financial reasoning. The most dangerous thing a financial manager can say is, “It doesn’t cost anything.” This sentence should be banished and replaced with the following question: “What is the impact of this action on value?”
(c) Most importantly, the financial manager is a negotiator …
But what exactly is our financial manager selling? Or, put another way: how can the value of the financial security be determined?
From a practical standpoint, the financial manager “sells” management’s reputation for integrity, its expertise, the quality of the company’s assets, its overall financial health, its ability to generate a certain level of profitability over a given period and its commitment to more or less restrictive legal terms. Note that the quality of assets will be particularly important in the case of a loan tied to and often secured by specific assets, while overall financial health will dominate when financing is not tied to specific assets.
Theoretically, the financial manager sells expected future cash flows that can derive only from the company’s business operations.
A company cannot distribute more cash flow to its providers of funds than its business generates. A money-losing company pays its creditors only at the expense of its shareholders. When a company with sub-par profitability pays a dividend, it jeopardises its financial health.
The financial manager’s role is to transform the company’s commercial and industrial business assets and commitments into financial assets and commitments.
In so doing, they spread the expected cash flows among many different investor groups: banks, financial investors, family shareholders, individual investors, etc.
Financial investors then turn these flows into negotiable instruments traded on an open market, which values the instruments in relation to other opportunities available on the market.
Underlying the securities is the market’s evaluation of the company. A company considered to be poorly managed will see investors vote with their feet. Yields on the company’s securities will rise to prohibitive levels and prices on them will fall. Financial difficulties, if not already present, will soon follow. Financial managers must therefore keep the market convinced at all times of the quality of their company, because that is what backs up the securities it issues!
The different financial partners hold a portion of the value of the company. This diversity gives rise to yet another job for the financial manager: to adroitly steer the company through the distribution of the overall value of the company.
Like any dealmaker, the financial manager has something to sell, but must also:
- assess the company’s overall financial situation;
- understand the motivations of the various participants;
- analyse the relative powers of the parties involved.
2/ THE FINANCIAL MANAGER IS ALSO A CONTROLLER
(a) Of profitability as a guarantee of sustainability
The financial investors who buy the company’s securities do so not out of altruism, but because they hope to realise a certain rate of return on their investment, in the form of interest, dividends and/or capital gains. In other words, in return for entrusting the company with their money via their purchase of the company’s securities, they require a minimum return on their investment.
The financial manager must therefore analyse the different investment projects proposed by operational people and explain to colleagues that some should not be undertaken because they are not profitable enough compared to the return investors are looking for. In short, financial managers sometimes have to be “party-poopers”. They are indirectly the spokesperson of the financial investment community.
Consequently, the financial manager must make sure that over the medium term the company makes investments with returns at least equal to the rate of return expected by the company’s providers of capital. If so, all is well. If not, if the company is consistently falling short of this goal, then it will destroy value, turning what was worth 100 into 90, or 80. This is corporate purgatory. On the other hand, if the profitability of its investments consistently exceeds investor demands, transforming 100 into 120 or more, then the company deserves the kudos it will get. But it should also remain humble. With technological progress and deregulation advancing apace, repeat performances are becoming more and more challenging.
If the profitability over several years of the company’s operating assets is not at least equal to the return looked for by investors, then the financial manager should discuss how to improve the situation with operational people.
(b) Of risks run by the company
Fluctuations in interest rates, currencies and the prices of raw materials are so great that financial risks are as important as industrial risks. Consider a Swiss company that buys copper in the world market, then processes it and sells it in Switzerland and abroad.
Its performance depends not only on the price of copper but also on the exchange rate of the US dollar versus the Swiss franc, because it uses the dollar to make purchases abroad and receives payment in dollars for international sales. Lastly, interest rate fluctuations have an impact on the company’s financial flows. A multi-headed dragon!
The company must manage its specific interest rate and exchange rate risks because doing nothing can also have serious consequences (see Chapter 51).
Take an example of an economy with no derivative markets. A corporate treasurer anticipating a decline in long-term interest rates and whose company has long-term debt has no choice but to borrow short term, invest the proceeds long term, wait for interest rates to decline, pay off the short-term loans and borrow again. You will have no trouble understanding that this strategy has its limits. The balance sheet becomes inflated, intermediation costs rise, and so on. Derivative markets enable the treasurer to manage this long-term interest rate risk without touching the company’s balance sheet.
Generally, the CFO is responsible for the identification, the assessment and the management of risks for the firm. This includes not only currency and interest rate risks but also liquidity and counterparty risk. Recent years have shown that a CFO with strong know-how in such matters is highly appreciated.
(c) Of ESG commitments made by the company
As the spokesperson within the company for the investors who finance it, the role of the CFO is also to guarantee the sincerity of the ESG commitments made and their respect over time, because sincerity creates trust. And without trust, there is no funding.
3/ THE FINANCIAL MANAGER IS ALSO A STRATEGIST
The corporate financier is also a strategist who, because they constantly assess the risk and profitability of the company’s activities, and therefore, as we shall see, their value, is in a position to suggest a review of their scope. The company will thus be able to sell to better placed third parties, assets on which it is unable over time to generate the required rate of return in view of their risks, in order to concentrate on the best performing divisions that can be developed through acquisitions.
We are far from the CFOs of the sixties who were mainly top-of-the-class accountants! Nowadays they are required not only to perfectly master accounting and finance, but also to be gifted in marketing and negotiation, not to mention tax and legal issues, risk management, and to be able managers of their teams. The best of them also have a strategic way of thinking, and their intimate knowledge of the company and its human resources allows them to be serious candidates for the top job. As an illustration, the current CEOs of Siemens, Danone, Expedia, Sony and Tata Consulting are all former CFOs of their companies.
* * *
We’re going to leave you with these appetisers in the hope that you are now hungry for more. But beware of taking the principles briefly presented here and skipping directly to Section III of the book. If you are looking for high finance and get-rich-quick schemes, this book is definitely not for you. The menu we propose is as follows:
- First, an understanding of the firm, i.e. the source of all the cash flows that are the subject of our analysis (Section I: Financial analysis).
- Then an appreciation of markets, because it is they who are constantly valuing the firm (Section II: Investors and markets).
- Then an understanding of how value is created and how it is measured (Section III: Value).
- Followed by the major financial decisions of the firm, viewed in the light of both market theory, organisational and behavioural theories (Section IV: Corporate financial policies).
- Finally, if you persevere through the foregoing, you will get to taste the dessert, as Section V: Financial management presents several practical, current topics in financial engineering and management.
SUMMARY
QUESTIONS
ANSWERS
BIBLIOGRAPHY
NOTES
- 1 See Chapter 39.
- 2 For our young readers, see the Vernimmen.com Newsletter, 28, 7–8, November 2007 or the film The Big Short.
- 3 2018 Global Sustainable Investment Review.
- 4 AFG, the French Association of Financial Management, grouping of professionals managing portfolios on behalf of third parties, and the Forum for Socially Responsible Investment.
- 5 Are ESG tilts consistent with value creation in Europe? January 2015.
- 6 International Capital Markets Association.
- 7 See Section 21.2.
- 8 Total societal impact, a new lens for strategy, October 2017.
**Section I. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
****PART ONE. FUNDAMENTAL CONCEPTS IN FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
The following six chapters provide a gradual introduction to the foundations of financial analysis. They examine the concepts of cash flow, earnings, capital employed and invested capital, and look at the ways in which these concepts are linked.
They are fundamental for readers who have only a vague knowledge of the business world and basic accounting techniques. In this case, our advice is to read them and reread them before going further.
Chapter 2. CASH FLOW
Let’s work from A to Z (unless it turns out to be Z to A!)
Let’s begin our understanding of the business by analysing the cash flows that pre-exist any accounting or management system.
Section 2.1 CLASSIFYING COMPANY CASH FLOWS
Let’s consider, for example, the monthly account statement that individual customers receive from their bank. It is presented as a series of lines showing the various inflows and outflows of money on precise dates and the type of transaction (debit card payment or cash withdrawal, for instance).
Our first step is to trace the rationale for each of the entries on the statement, which could be everyday purchases, payment of a salary, automatic transfers, internet subscriptions, loan repayments or the receipt of bond interests, to mention a few examples.
The corresponding task for a financial manager is to reclassify company cash flows by category to draw up a cash flow document that can be used to:
- analyse past trends in cash flow (the document put together is generally known as a cash flow statement1); or
- project future trends in cash flow, over a shorter or longer period (the document needed is a cash flow budget or plan).
With this goal in mind, we will now demonstrate that cash flows can be classified into one of the following processes:
- Activities that form part of the industrial and commercial life of a company:
- operating cycle;
- investment cycle.
- Financing activities to fund these cycles:
- the debt cycle;
- the equity cycle.
Section 2.2 OPERATING AND INVESTMENT CYCLES
1/ THE IMPORTANCE OF THE OPERATING CYCLE
Let’s take the example of a greengrocer, Mr G, who is “cashing up” one evening. What does he find? First, he sees how much he spent in cash at the wholesale market in the morning and then the cash proceeds from fruit and vegetable sales during the day. If we assume that the greengrocer sold all the produce he bought in the morning at a mark-up, then the balance of receipts and payments for the day will be a cash surplus.
Unfortunately, things are usually more complicated in practice. It’s rare that all the goods bought in the morning are sold by the evening, especially in the case of a manufacturing business.
A company processes raw materials as part of an operating cycle, the length of which varies tremendously, from a day in the newspaper sector to seven years in the cognac sector. There is, then, a time lag between purchases of raw materials and the sale of the corresponding finished goods.
This time lag is not the only complicating factor. It is unusual for companies to buy and sell in cash. Usually, their suppliers grant them extended payment periods, and they can in turn grant their customers extended payment periods. The money received during the day does not necessarily come from sales made on the same day.
As a result of customer credit,2 supplier credit3 and the time it takes to manufacture and sell products or services, the operating cycle of each and every company spans a certain period, leading to timing differences between operating outflows and the corresponding operating inflows.
Each business has its own operating cycle of a certain length that, from a cash flow standpoint, may lead to positive or negative cash flows at different times. Operating outflows and inflows from different cycles are analysed by period, e.g. by month or by year. The balance of these flows is called operating cash flow. Operating cash flow reflects the cash flows generated by operations during a given period.
In concrete terms, operating cash flow represents the cash flow generated by the company’s operations. Returning to our initial example of an individual looking at his bank statement, it represents the difference between the receipts and normal outgoings, such as food, electricity and rent.
Naturally, unless there is a major timing difference caused by some unusual circumstances (start-up period of a business, very strong growth, very strong seasonal fluctuations), the balance of operating receipts and payments should be positive.
Readers with accounting knowledge will note that operating cash flow is independent of any accounting policies, which makes sense since it relates only to cash flows. More specifically:
- neither the company’s depreciation and provisioning policy,
- nor its inventory valuation method,
- nor the techniques used to defer costs over several periods have any impact on the figure.
However, the concept is affected by decisions about how to classify payments between investment and operating outlays, as we will now examine more closely.
2/ INVESTMENT AND OPERATING OUTFLOWS
Let’s return to the example of our greengrocer, who now decides to add frozen food to his business.
The operating cycle will no longer be the same. The greengrocer may, for instance, begin receiving deliveries once a week only and will therefore have to run much larger inventories. Admittedly, the impact of the longer operating cycle due to much larger inventories may be offset by larger credit from his suppliers. The key point here is to recognise that the operating cycle will change.
The operating cycle is different for each business and, generally speaking, the more sophisticated the end product, the longer the operating cycle.
But most importantly, before he can start up this new activity, our greengrocer needs to invest in a chest freezer.
What difference is there between this investment and operating outlays?
The outlay on the chest freezer seems to be a prerequisite. It forms the basis for a new activity, the success of which is unknown. It appears to carry higher risks and will be beneficial only if overall operating cash flow generated by the greengrocer increases. Lastly, investments are carried out from a long-term perspective and have a longer life than that of the operating cycle. Indeed, they last for several operating cycles, even if they do not last forever given the fast pace of technological progress.
This justifies the distinction, from a cash flow perspective, between operating and investment outflows.
Normal outflows, from an individual’s perspective, differ from an investment outflow in that they afford enjoyment, whereas investment represents abstinence. As we will see, this type of decision represents one of the vital underpinnings of finance. Only the very puritanically minded would take more pleasure from buying a microwave than from spending the same amount of money at a restaurant! Only one of these choices can be an investment and the other an ordinary outflow. So, what purpose do investments serve? Investment is worthwhile only if the decision to forego normal spending, which gives instant pleasure, will subsequently lead to greater gratification.
This is the definition of the return on investment (be it industrial or financial) from a cash flow standpoint. We will use this definition throughout this book.
The impact of investment outlays is spread over several operating cycles. Financially, capital expenditures are worthwhile only if inflows generated thanks to these expenditures exceed the outflows by an amount yielding at least the return on investment expected by the investor.
Note also that a company may sell some assets in which it has invested in the past. For instance, our greengrocer may decide after several years to trade in his freezer for a larger model. The proceeds would also be part of the investment cycle.
3/ FREE CASH FLOW
Before-tax free cash flow is defined as the difference between operating cash flow and capital expenditure net of fixed asset disposals.
As we shall see in Sections II and III of this book, free cash flow can be calculated before or after tax. It also forms the basis for the most important valuation technique. Operating cash flow is a concept that depends on how expenditure is classified between operating and investment outlays. Since this distinction is not always clear-cut, operating cash flow is not widely used in practice, with free cash flow being far more popular. If free cash flow turns negative, then additional financial resources will have to be raised to cover the company’s cash flow requirements.
Section 2.3 FINANCIAL RESOURCES
The operating and investment cycles give rise to a timing difference in cash flows. Employees and suppliers have to be paid before customers settle up. Likewise, investments have to be completed before they generate any receipts. Naturally, this cash flow deficit needs to be filled. This is the role of financial resources.
The purpose of financial resources is simple: they must cover the shortfalls resulting from these timing differences by providing the company with sufficient funds to balance its cash flow.
These financial resources are provided by investors: shareholders, debtholders, lenders, etc. These financial resources are not provided with “no strings attached”. In return for providing the funds, investors expect to be subsequently rewarded by receiving dividends or interest payments, registering capital gains, etc. This can happen only if the operating and investment cycles generate positive cash flows.
To the extent that the financial investors have made the investment and operating activities possible, they expect to receive, in various different forms, their fair share of the surplus cash flows generated by these cycles.
At its most basic, the principle would be to finance these treasury shortfalls solely using capital that incurs the risk of the business. Such capital is known as shareholders’ equity. This type of financial resource forms the cornerstone of the entire financial system. Its importance is such that shareholders providing it are granted decision-making powers and control over the business in various different ways. From a cash flow standpoint, the equity cycle comprises inflows from capital increases and outflows in the form of dividend payments to the shareholders.
Like individuals, a business may decide to ask lenders rather than shareholders to help it cover a cash flow shortage. Bankers will lend funds only after they have carefully analysed the company’s financial health. They want to be nearly certain of being repaid and do not want exposure to the company’s business risk. These cash flow shortages may be short term or long term, but lenders do not want to take on business risk. The capital they provide represents the company’s debt capital.
The debt cycle is the following: the business arranges borrowings in return for a commitment to repay the capital and make interest payments regardless of trends in its operating and investment cycles. These undertakings represent firm commitments, ensuring that the lender is certain of recovering its funds provided that the commitments are met. Debt can finance:
- the investment cycle, with the increase in future net receipts set to cover capital repayments and interest payments on borrowings; and
- the operating cycle, with credit making it possible to bring forward certain inflows or to defer certain outflows.
From a cash flow standpoint, the life of a business comprises an operating and an investment cycle, leading to a positive or negative free cash flow. If free cash flow is negative, then the financing cycle covers the funding shortfall. But free cash flow cannot be forever negative: sooner or later investors must get a return and/or get repaid, and they can only get a return and/or get repaid by a positive free cash flow.
The risk incurred by the lender is that this commitment will not be met. Theoretically speaking, debt may be regarded as an advance on future cash flows generated by the investments made and guaranteed by the company’s shareholders’ equity.
Although a business needs to raise funds to finance investments, it may also find, at a given point in time, that it has a cash surplus, i.e. the funds available exceed cash requirements.
These investments are generally realised with a view to ensuring the possibility of a very quick exit without any risk of losses.
Although at first sight short-term financial investments (marketable securities) may be regarded as investments since they generate a rate of return, we advise readers to consider them instead as the opposite of debt. As we will see, company treasurers often have to raise additional debt even if at the same time the company holds short-term investments without speculating in any way.
Debt and short-term financial investments or marketable securities should not be considered independently of each other, but as inextricably linked. We suggest that readers reason in terms of debt net of short-term financial investments and financial expense net of financial income.
Putting all the individual pieces together, we arrive at the following simplified cash flow statement, with the balance reflecting the net decrease in the company’s debt during a given period:
SIMPLIFIED CASH FLOW STATEMENT
n – 2 | n – 1 | n | |
---|---|---|---|
Operating receipts − Operating payments | |||
= Operating cash flow | |||
− Capital expenditure + Fixed asset disposals | |||
= Free cash flow before tax | |||
− Financial expense net of financial income − Corporate income tax + Proceeds from share issue − Dividends paid | |||
= Net decrease in debt | |||
With: Repayments of borrowings − New bank and other borrowings + Change in marketable securities + Change in cash and cash equivalents | |||
= Net decrease in debt |
This short chapter is seminal and the reader who is discovering the notions it contains for the first time should not hesitate to read it twice in order to grasp them fully.
SUMMARY
QUESTIONS
EXERCISES
ANSWERS
BIBLIOGRAPHY
NOTES
Chapter 3. EARNINGS
Time to put our accounting hat on!
Following our analysis of company cash flows, it is time to consider the issue of how a company creates wealth. In this chapter, we are going to study the income statement to show how the various cycles of a company create wealth.
Section 3.1 ADDITIONS TO WEALTH AND DEDUCTIONS FROM WEALTH
What would your spontaneous answer be to the following questions?
- Does purchasing an apartment make you richer or poorer?
- Would your answer change if you were to buy the apartment on credit?
There can be no doubt as to the correct answer. Provided that you pay the market price for the apartment, your wealth is not affected whether or not you buy it on credit. Our experience as teachers has shown us that students often confuse cash and wealth.
Consequently, we advise readers to train their minds by analysing the impact of all transactions in terms of cash flows and wealth impacts.
For instance, when you buy an apartment, you become neither richer nor poorer, but your cash decreases. Arranging a loan makes you no richer or poorer than you were before (you owe the money), but your cash has increased. If a fire destroys your house and it was not insured, you are worse off, but your cash position has not changed, since you have not spent any money.
Raising debt is tantamount to increasing your financial resources and commitments at the same time. As a result, it has no impact on your net worth. Buying an apartment for cash results in a change in the nature of your assets (reduction in cash, increase in real estate assets), without any change in net worth. The possible examples are endless. Spending money does not necessarily make you poorer. Likewise, receiving money does not necessarily make you richer.
The job of listing all the items that positively or negatively affect a company’s wealth is performed by the income statement,1 which shows all the additions to wealth (revenues) and all the deductions from wealth (charges or expenses or costs). The fundamental aim of all businesses is to increase wealth. Additions to wealth cannot be achieved without some deductions from wealth. In sum, earnings represent the difference between additions to and deductions from wealth.
Since the rationale behind the income statement is not the same as for a cash flow statement, some cash flows do not appear on the income statement (those that neither generate nor destroy wealth). Likewise, some revenues and costs are not shown on the cash flow statement (because they have no impact on the company’s cash position).
1/ EARNINGS AND THE OPERATING CYCLE
The operating cycle forms the basis of the company’s wealth. It consists of both:
- additions to wealth (products and services sold, i.e. products and services whose worth is recognised in the market); and
- deductions from wealth (consumption of raw materials or goods for resale, use of labour, use of external services such as transportation, taxes and other duties).
The very essence of a business is to increase wealth by means of its operating cycle.
It may be described as gross insofar as it covers just the operating cycle and is calculated before non-cash expenses such as depreciation and amortisation, and before interest and taxes.
2/ EARNINGS AND THE INVESTING CYCLE
(a) Principles
Investing activities do not appear directly on the income statement. In a wealth-oriented approach, an investment represents a use of funds that retains some value.
That said, the value of investments may change over time:
(b) Accounting for a decrease in the value of fixed assets
The decrease in value of a fixed asset due to its use by the company is accounted for by means of depreciation and amortisation.3
Impairment losses or write-downs on fixed assets recognise the loss in value of an asset not related to its day-to-day use, i.e. the unforeseen diminution in the value of:
- an intangible asset (goodwill, patents, etc.);
- a tangible asset (property, plant and equipment);
- an investment in a subsidiary.
3/ THE DISTINCTION BETWEEN OPERATING COSTS AND FIXED ASSETS
Although we are easily able to define investment from a cash flow perspective, we recognise that our approach goes against the grain of the traditional presentation of these matters, especially as far as those familiar with accounting are concerned:
- Whatever is consumed as part of the operating cycle to create something new belongs to the operating cycle. Without wishing to philosophise, we note that the act of creation always entails some form of destruction.
- Whatever is used without being destroyed directly, thus retaining its value, belongs to the investment cycle. This represents an immutable asset or, in accounting terms, a fixed asset (a “non-current asset” in IFRS terminology).
For instance, to make bread, a baker uses flour, salt, yeast and water, all of which form part of the end product. The process also entails labour, which has a value only insofar as it transforms the raw material into the end product. At the same time, the baker also needs a bread oven, which is absolutely essential for the production process, but is not destroyed by it. Though this oven may experience wear and tear, it will be used many times over.
This is the major distinction that can be drawn between operating costs and fixed assets. It may look deceptively straightforward, but in practice is no clearer than the distinction between investment and operating outlays. For instance, does an advertising campaign represent a charge linked solely to one period with no impact on any other? Or does it represent the creation of an asset (a brand)?
4/ THE COMPANY’S OPERATING PROFIT
From EBITDA, which is linked to the operating cycle, we deduct non-cash costs, which comprise depreciation and amortisation and impairment losses or write-downs on fixed assets.
This gives us operating income or operating profit or EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes), which reflects the increase in wealth generated by the company’s industrial and commercial activities.
The term “operating” contrasts with the term “financial”, reflecting the distinction between the real world and the realms of finance. Indeed, operating income is the product of the company’s industrial and commercial activities before its financing operations are taken into account. Operating profit or EBIT may also be called operating income, trading profit or operating result.
5/ EARNINGS AND THE FINANCING CYCLE
(a) Debt capital
Repayments of borrowings do not constitute costs but, as their name suggests, merely repayments.
Just as common sense tells us that securing a loan does not increase wealth, neither does repaying a borrowing represent a charge.
We emphasise this point because our experience tells us that many mistakes are made in this area.
Conversely, we should note that the interest payments made on borrowings lead to a decrease in the wealth of the company and thus represent an expense for the company. As a result, they are shown on the income statement.
Similarly, when a company invests cash in financial products (money market funds, interest-bearing accounts), the interest received is recognised as financial income. The difference between financial income and financial expense is called net financial expense/(income).
The difference between operating profit and net financial expense is called profit before tax and non-recurring items.4
(b) Shareholders’ equity
From a cash flow standpoint, shareholders’ equity is formed through issuance of shares minus outflows in the form of dividends or share buy-backs. These cash inflows give rise to ownership rights over the company. The income statement measures the creation of wealth by the company; it therefore naturally ends with the net earnings (also called net profit). Whether the net earnings are paid in dividends or not is a simple choice of cash position made by the shareholder.
If we take a step back, we see that net earnings and financial interest are based on the same principle of distributing the wealth created by the company. Likewise, income tax represents earnings paid to the state in spite of the fact that it does not contribute any funds to the company.
6/ RECURRENT AND NON-RECURRENT ITEMS: EXTRAORDINARY AND EXCEPTIONAL ITEMS, DISCONTINUED OPERATIONS
We have now considered all the operations of a business that may be allocated to the operating, investing and financing cycles of a company. That said, it is not hard to imagine the difficulties involved in classifying the financial consequences of certain extraordinary events, such as losses incurred as a result of earthquakes, other natural disasters or the expropriation of assets by a government.
They are not expected to occur frequently or regularly and are beyond the control of a company’s management – hence, the idea of creating a separate catch-all category for precisely such extraordinary items.
We will see in Chapter 9 that the distinction between non-recurring and recurring items is a difficult and subjective distinction, all the more so as accounting standards do little to help us.
Among the many different types of exceptional events, we will briefly focus on asset disposals. Investing forms an integral part of the industrial and commercial activities of businesses. But the best-laid plans may fail, while others may lead down a strategic impasse.
Put another way, disinvesting is also a key part of an entrepreneur’s activities. It generates exceptional “asset disposal” inflows on the cash flow statement and capital gains and losses on the income statement, which may appear under exceptional items or not. It is for the analyst to decide whether these gains and losses are recurring, and thus part of the operations; or not, and then constitute non-recurring items. More generally, some non-recurring items have a cash impact, some have none (goodwill depreciation, for example).
By definition, it is easier to analyse and forecast profit before tax and non-recurrent items than net income or net profit, which is calculated after the impact of non-recurrent items and tax.
7/ NET INCOME
Net income measures the creation or destruction of wealth during the fiscal year. Net income is a wealth indicator, not a cash indicator. It incorporates wealth-destructive items like depreciation, which are non-cash items, and most of the time it does not show increases in value, which are only recorded when they are realised through asset sales.
Section 3.2 DIFFERENT INCOME STATEMENT FORMATS
Two main formats of income statement are frequently used, which differ in the way they present revenues and expenses related to the operating and investment cycles. They may be presented either:
- by function,5 i.e. according to the way revenues and costs are used in the operating and investing cycle. This shows the cost of goods sold, selling and marketing costs, research and development costs and general and administrative costs; or
- by nature,6 i.e. by type of expenditure or revenue, which shows the change in inventories of finished goods and in work in progress (closing minus opening inventory), purchases of and changes in inventories of goods for resale and raw materials (closing minus opening inventory), other external costs, personnel expenses, taxes and other duties, depreciation and amortisation.
Presentation | China | France | Germany | India | Italy | Japan | Morocco | Russia | Switzerland | UK | US | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
By nature | 0% | 23% | 30% | 100% | 66% | 10% | 100% | 21% | 27% | 10% | 0% | |
By function | 92% | 53% | 67% | 0% | 27% | 90% | 0% | 75% | 66% | 90% | 60% | |
Other | 8% | 23% | 3% | 0% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 7% | 0% | 40% |
Source: 2020 annual reports from the top 30 listed non-financial groups in each country
The by-nature presentation predominates to a great extent in Italy, India and Morocco. In the US, the by-function presentation is largely predominant.7
Whereas in the past, France, Germany and Switzerland tended to use systematically the by-nature or by-function format, the current situation is less clear-cut. Moreover, a new presentation is making some headway; it is mainly a by-function format but depreciation and amortisation are not included in the cost of goods sold, in selling and marketing costs or research and development costs, but are isolated on a separate line.
The two different income statement formats can be summarised by the following diagram:
1/ THE BY-FUNCTION INCOME STATEMENT FORMAT
This presentation is based on a management accounting approach, in which costs are allocated to the main corporate functions:
Function | Corresponding cost |
---|---|
Production | Cost of sales, or cost of goods sold |
Commercial | Selling and marketing costs |
Research and development | Research and development costs |
Administration | General and administrative costs |
As a result, personnel expense is allocated to each of these four categories (or three where selling, general and administrative costs are pooled into a single category), depending on whether an individual employee works in production, sales, research or administration. Likewise, depreciation expense for a tangible fixed asset is accounted for under cost of goods sold if it relates to production machinery, to selling and marketing costs if it concerns a car used by the sales team, to research and development costs if it relates to laboratory equipment, or to general and administrative costs in the case of the accounting department’s computers, for example.
The underlying principle is very simple indeed. This format clearly shows that operating profit is the difference between sales and the cost of sales irrespective of their nature (i.e. production, sales, research and development, administration).
On the other hand, it does not differentiate between the operating and investment processes, since depreciation and amortisation is not shown directly on the income statement (it is split up between the four main corporate functions), obliging analysts to track down the information in the cash flow statement or in the notes to the accounts.
2/ THE BY-NATURE INCOME STATEMENT FORMAT
The by-nature format is simple to apply, even for small companies, because no allocation of expenses is required. It offers a more detailed breakdown of costs.
Naturally, as in the previous approach, operating profit is still the difference between sales and the cost of sales.
In this format, costs are recognised as they are incurred rather than when the corresponding items are used. Showing on the income statement all purchases made and all invoices sent to customers during the same period would not be comparing like with like.
A business may transfer to inventory some of the purchases made during a given year. The transfer of these purchases to inventory does not destroy any wealth. Instead, it represents the formation of an asset, albeit probably a temporary one, but one that has real value at a given point in time. Secondly, some of the end products produced by the company may not be sold during the year and yet the corresponding costs appear on the income statement.
To compare like with like, it is necessary to:
- eliminate changes in inventories of raw materials and goods for resale from purchases to get raw materials and goods for resale that were used rather than simply purchased;
- add changes in the inventory of finished products and work in progress back to sales. As a result, the income statement shows production rather than just sales.
The by-nature format shows the amount spent on production for the period and not the total expenses under the accruals convention. It has the logical disadvantage that it seems to imply that changes in inventory are a revenue or an expense in their own right, which they are not. They are only an adjustment to purchases to obtain relevant costs.
Exercise 1 will help readers get to grips with the concept of changes in inventories of finished goods and work in progress.
To sum up, there are two different income statement formats:
- the by-nature format, which is focused on production, in which all the costs incurred during a given period are recorded. This amount then needs to be adjusted (for changes in inventories) so that it may be compared with products sold during the period;
- the by-function format, which is built directly in terms of the cost price of goods or services sold.
Either way, it is worth noting that EBITDA depends heavily on the inventory valuation methods used by the business. This emphasises the appeal of the by-nature format, which shows inventory changes on a separate line of the income statement and thus clearly indicates their order of magnitude.
Like operating cash flow, EBITDA is not influenced by the valuation methods applied to tangible and intangible fixed assets or the taxation system.
SUMMARY
QUESTIONS
EXERCISES
ANSWERS
BIBLIOGRAPHY
NOTES
- 1 Also called a Profit and Loss statement or P&L account.
- 2 But IFRS have created some exceptions to this principle that we will see in Chapters 6 and 7.
- 3 Amortisation is sometimes used instead of depreciation, particularly in the context of intangible assets.
- 4 Or non-recurrent items.
- 5 Also called by-destination income statement.
- 6 Also called by-category income statement.
- 7 The US airline companies are an exception as most of them use the by-nature income statement.
Chapter 4. CAPITAL EMPLOYED AND INVESTED CAPITAL
The end-of-period snapshot
So far in our analysis, we have looked at inflows and outflows, or revenues and costs during a given period. We will now temporarily set aside this dynamic approach and place ourselves at the end of the period (rather than considering changes over a given period) and analyse the balances outstanding.
For instance, in addition to changes in net debt over a period, we also need to analyse net debt at a given point in time. Likewise, we will study here the wealth that has been accumulated up to a given point in time, rather than that generated over a period.
The balance represents a snapshot of the cumulative inflows and outflows previously generated by the business.
To summarise, we can make the following connections:
- an inflow or outflow represents a change in “stock”, i.e. in the balance outstanding;
- a “stock” is the sum of inflows and outflows since a given date (when the business started up) through to a given point in time. For instance, at any moment, shareholders’ equity is equal to the sum of capital increases (net of capital decreases) by shareholders and annual net income for past years not distributed in the form of dividends plus the original share capital.
Section 4.1 THE BALANCE SHEET: DEFINITIONS AND CONCEPTS
The purpose of a balance sheet is to list all the assets of a business and all of its financial resources at a given point in time.
1/ MAIN ITEMS ON A BALANCE SHEET
Assets on the balance sheet comprise:
- fixed assets,1 i.e. everything required for the operating cycle that is not destroyed as part of it. These items retain some value (any loss in their value is accounted for through depreciation, amortisation and impairment losses). A distinction is drawn between tangible fixed assets (land, buildings, machinery, etc.),2intangible fixed assets (brands, patents, software, goodwill, etc.) and investments. When a business holds shares in another company (in the long term), they are accounted for under investments;
- inventories and trade receivables, i.e. temporary assets created as part of the operating cycle;
- lastly, marketable securities and cash that belong to the company and are thus assets.
Inventories, receivables,3 marketable securities and cash represent the current assets, a term reflecting the fact that these assets tend to “turn over” during the operating cycle.
Resources on the balance sheet comprise:
- capital provided by shareholders, plus retained earnings, known as shareholders’ equity;
- borrowings of any kind that the business may have arranged, e.g. bank loans, supplier credits, etc., known as liabilities.
THE BALANCE SHEET
SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY | |
FIXED ASSETS | |
(or NON-CURRENT ASSETS) | |
LIABILITIES | |
CURRENT ASSETS |
By definition, a company’s assets and resources must be exactly equal. This is the fundamental principle of double-entry accounting. When an item is purchased, it is either capitalised or expensed. If it is capitalised, it will appear on the asset side of the balance sheet, and if expensed, it will lead to a reduction in earnings and thus shareholders’ equity. The double-entry for this purchase is either a reduction in cash (i.e. a decrease in an asset) or a commitment (i.e. a liability) to the vendor (i.e. an increase in a liability). According to the algebra of accounting, assets and resources (equity and liabilities) always carry the opposite sign, so the equilibrium of the balance sheet is always maintained.
It is European practice to classify assets starting with fixed assets and to end with cash,4 whereas it is North American and Japanese practice to start with cash. The same is true for the equity and liabilities side of the balance sheet: Europeans start with equity, whereas North Americans and Japanese end with it.
A “horizontal” format is common in continental Europe, with assets on the left and resources on the right. In the UK, the more common format is a “vertical” one, starting from fixed assets plus current assets and deducting liabilities to end up with equity. These are only choices of presentation.
2/ TWO WAYS OF ANALYSING THE BALANCE SHEET
A balance sheet can be analysed either from a capital-employed perspective or from a solvency-and-liquidity perspective.
In the capital-employed analysis, the balance sheet shows all the uses of funds for the company’s operating cycle and analyses the origin of its sources of funds.
A capital-employed analysis of the balance sheet serves three main purposes:
- to illustrate how a company finances its operating assets (see Chapter 12);
- to compute the rate of return either on capital employed or on equity (see Chapter 13); and
- as a first step to valuing the equity of a company as a going concern (see Chapter 31).
In a solvency-and-liquidity analysis, a business is regarded as a set of assets and liabilities, the difference between them representing the book value of the equity provided by shareholders. From this perspective, the balance sheet lists everything that a company owns and everything that it owes.
A solvency-and-liquidity analysis of the balance sheet serves three purposes:
- to measure the solvency of a company (see Chapter 14);
- to measure the liquidity of a company (see Chapter 12); and
- as a first step to valuing its equity in a bankruptcy scenario.
Section 4.2 A CAPITAL-EMPLOYED ANALYSIS OF THE BALANCE SHEET
To gain a firm understanding of the capital-employed analysis of the balance sheet, we believe it is best approached in the same way as the analysis in the previous chapter, except that here we will be considering “stocks” rather than inflows and outflows.
More specifically, in a capital-employed analysis, a balance sheet is divided into the following main headings.
1/ FIXED ASSETS, ALSO CALLED NON-CURRENT ASSETS
These represent all the investments carried out by the business, based on our financial and accounting definition. In IFRS and US GAAP it would also include operating lease right of use assets.
It is helpful to distinguish wherever possible between operating assets and non-operating assets that have nothing to do with the company’s business activities, e.g. land, buildings and subsidiaries active in significantly different or non-core businesses. Non-operating assets can thus be excluded from the company’s capital employed. By isolating non-operating assets, we can assess the resources the company may be able to call upon in hard times (i.e. through the disposal of non-operating assets).
The difference between operating and non-operating assets can be subtle in certain circumstances. For instance, how should a company’s head office on Bond Street or on the Champs-Elysées be classified? Probably under operating assets for a fashion house or a car manufacturer, but under non-operating assets for an engineering or construction group which has no business reason to be on Bond Street (unlike Burberry).
2/ OPERATING WORKING CAPITAL
Operating working capital is the difference between uses of funds and sources of funds linked to the daily operations of a company.
Uses of funds comprise all the operating costs incurred but not yet used or sold (i.e. inventories) and all sales that have not yet been paid for (trade receivables).
Sources of funds comprise all charges incurred but not yet paid for (trade payables, social security and tax payables), as well as operating revenues from products that have not yet been delivered (advance payments on orders).
The net balance of operating uses and sources of funds is called the working capital.
If uses of funds exceed sources of funds, the balance is positive and working capital needs to be financed. This is the most frequent case. If negative, it represents a source of funds generated by the operating cycle. This is a nice – but rare – situation!
It is described as “working capital” because the figure reflects the cash required to cover financing shortfalls arising from day-to-day operations.
Sometimes working capital is defined as current assets minus current liabilities. This definition corresponds to our working capital definition + marketable securities and net cash – short-term financial and banking borrowings. We think that this is an improper definition of working capital as it mixes items from the operating cycle (inventories, receivables, payables) and items from the financing cycle (marketable securities, net cash and short-term bank and financial borrowings). You may also find in some documents expressions such as “working capital needs” or “requirements in working capital”. These are synonyms for working capital.
Operating working capital comprises the following accounting entries:
Only the normal amount of operating sources of funds is included in calculations of operating working capital. Unusually long payment periods granted by suppliers should not be included as a component of normal operating working capital.
Where it is permanent, the abnormal portion should be treated as a source of cash, with the suppliers thus being considered as playing the role of the company’s banker.
Inventories of raw materials and goods for resale should be included only at their normal amount. Under no circumstances should an unusually large figure for inventories of raw materials and goods for resale be included in the calculation of operating working capital.
Where appropriate, the excess portion of inventories or the amount considered as inventory held for speculative purposes can be treated as a high-risk short-term investment.
Working capital is totally independent of the methods used to value fixed assets, depreciation, amortisation and impairment losses on fixed assets. However, it is influenced by:
- inventory valuation methods;
- deferred income and cost over one or more years (accruals);
- the company’s provisioning policy for current assets and operating liabilities and costs.
As we shall see in Chapter 5, working capital represents a key principle of financial analysis.
3/ NON-OPERATING WORKING CAPITAL
Although we have considered the timing differences between inflows and outflows that arise during the operating cycle, we have, until now, always assumed that capital expenditures are paid for when purchased and that non-recurring costs are paid for when they are recognised in the income statement. Naturally, there may be timing differences here, giving rise to what is known as non-operating working capital.
Non-operating working capital, which is not a very robust concept from a theoretical perspective, is hard to predict and to analyse because it depends on individual transactions, unlike operating working capital, which is recurring.
In practice, non-operating working capital is a catch-all category for items that cannot be classified anywhere else. It includes amounts due on fixed assets, extraordinary items, etc.
4/ CAPITAL EMPLOYED
Capital employed is the sum of a company’s fixed assets and its working capital (i.e. operating and non-operating working capital). It is therefore equal to the sum of the net amounts devoted by a business to both the operating and investing cycles. It is also known as operating assets.
Capital employed is financed by two main types of funds: shareholders’ equity and net debt, sometimes grouped together under the heading of invested capital.
5/ FINANCIAL RESOURCES OR INVESTED CAPITAL
Capital employed is financed by two financial resources: shareholders’ equity and net debt.
Shareholders’ equity comprises capital provided by shareholders when the company is initially formed and at subsequent capital increases, as well as capital left at the company’s disposal in the form of earnings transferred to the reserves.
The company’s gross debt comprises debt financing, irrespective of its maturity, i.e. medium- and long-term (various borrowings due in more than one year that have not yet been repaid), and short-term bank or financial borrowings (portion of long-term borrowings due in less than one year, discounted notes, bank overdrafts, etc.) to which IFRS and US GAAP add operating lease liabilities. A company’s net debt goes further by deducting cash and equivalents (e.g. petty cash and bank accounts) and marketable securities, which are the opposite of debt (the company lending money to banks or financial markets), that could be used to partially or totally reduce the gross debt. It is also called net financial position.
Net debt, or net financial position, can thus be calculated as follows:
A company’s net debt can be either positive or negative. If it is negative, the company is said to have net cash.
In the previous paragraphs, we looked at the key accounting items, but some are a bit more complex to allocate (pensions, accruals, etc.) and we will develop these in Chapter 7.
From a capital-employed standpoint, a company balance sheet can be analysed as follows, with the example of the ArcelorMittal group, the world steel leader. This balance sheet will be used in future chapters.
BALANCE SHEET FOR ARCELORMITTAL
in $m | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goodwill | 5,651 | 5,737 | 5,728 | 5,432 | 4,312 | |
+ | Other intangible fixed assets | 49 | – | – | – | – |
+ | Tangible fixed assets | 34,782 | 36,971 | 35,638 | 35,104 | 29,807 |
+ | Equity in associated companies | 4,297 | 5,084 | 4,906 | 6,529 | 6,817 |
+ | Other non-current assets | 2,538 | 3,884 | 6,326 | 2,420 | 4,462 |
= | NON-CURRENT ASSETS (FIXED ASSETS) | 47,317 | 51,676 | 52,598 | 49,485 | 45,398 |
Inventories | 14,734 | 17,986 | 20,744 | 17,296 | 12,328 | |
+ | Trade receivables | 7,682 | 8,888 | 9,412 | 8,005 | 6,872 |
+ | Other operating receivables | 1,665 | 1,931 | 2,834 | 2,756 | 2,281 |
− | Trade payables | 11,633 | 13,428 | 13,981 | 12,614 | 11,525 |
− | Other operating payables | 4,597 | 5,197 | 6,307 | 5,804 | 5,596 |
= | OPERATING WORKING CAPITAL (1) | 7,851 | 10,180 | 12,702 | 9,639 | 4,360 |
Non-operating receivables | 4,329 | |||||
− | Non-operating payables | 2,087 | 2,575 | 5,014 | 4,993 | 5,884 |
= | NON-OPERATING WORKING CAPITAL (2) | (2,087) | (2,575) | (5,014) | (4,993) | (1,555) |
= | WORKING CAPITAL (1+2) | 5,764 | 7,605 | 7,688 | 4,646 | 2,805 |
CAPITAL EMPLOYED = NON-CURRENT ASSETS + WORKING CAPITAL | 53,081 | 59,281 | 60,286 | 54,131 | 48,203 | |
= | SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY GROUP SHARE | 30,135 | 38,790 | 42,086 | 38,521 | 38,280 |
+ | Minority interests in consolidated subsidiaries | 2,190 | 2,066 | 2,022 | 1,962 | 1,957 |
– | Deferred tax assets | 5,837 | 7,055 | 8,287 | 8,680 | 7,866 |
+ | Deferred tax liabilities | 2,529 | 2,684 | 2,374 | 2,331 | 1,832 |
= | TOTAL GROUP EQUITY | 29,017 | 36,485 | 38,195 | 34,134 | 34,203 |
Medium- and long-term borrowings and liabilities | 11,789 | 10,143 | 9,316 | 10,344 | 9,000 | |
+ | Bank overdrafts and short-term borrowings | 6,593 | 7,809 | 8,147 | 7,305 | 6,307 |
− | Cash and equivalents, marketable securities | 2,615 | 2,786 | 2,354 | 4,995 | 5,963 |
+ | Pensions liabilities | 8,297 | 7,630 | 6,982 | 7,343 | 4,656 |
= | NET DEBT | 24,064 | 22,796 | 22,091 | 19,997 | 14,000 |
INVESTED CAPITAL = (GROUP EQUITY + NET DEBT) = CAPITAL EMPLOYED | 53,081 | 59,281 | 60,286 | 54,131 | 48,203 |
Items specific to consolidated accounts are highlighted in blue and will be described in detail in Chapter 6.
Section 4.3 A SOLVENCY-AND-LIQUIDITY ANALYSIS OF THE BALANCE SHEET
The solvency-and-liquidity analysis of the balance sheet, which presents a statement of what is owned and what is owed by the company at the end of the year, can be used:
- by shareholders to list everything that the company owns and owes, bearing in mind that these amounts may need to be revalued;
- by creditors looking to assess the risk associated with loans granted to the company. In a capitalist system, shareholders’ equity is the ultimate guarantee in the event of liquidation since the claims of creditors are met before those of shareholders.
Hence the importance attached to a solvency-and-liquidity analysis of the balance sheet in traditional financial analysis. As we shall see in detail in Chapters 12 and 14, it may be analysed from either a liquidity or a solvency perspective.
1/ BALANCE SHEET LIQUIDITY
A classification of the balance sheet items needs to be carried out prior to the liquidity analysis. Liabilities are classified in the order in which they fall due for repayment. Since balance sheets are published annually, a distinction between the short term and the long term turns on whether a liability is due in less than or more than one year. Accordingly, liabilities are classified into those due in the short term (less than one year), in the medium and long term (more than one year) and those that are not due for repayment.
Likewise, what the company owns can also be classified by duration as follows:
- assets that will have disappeared from the balance sheet by the following year, which comprise current assets in the vast majority of cases;
- assets that will still appear on the balance sheet the following year, which comprise fixed assets in the vast majority of cases.
From a liquidity perspective, we classify liabilities by their due date, investments by their maturity date and assets as follows:
Accordingly, they comprise (unless the operating cycle is unusually long) inventories and trade receivables.
Balance sheet liquidity therefore derives from the fact that the turnover of assets (i.e. the speed at which they are monetised within the operating cycle) is faster than the turnover of liabilities (i.e. when they fall due). The maturity schedule of liabilities is known in advance because it is defined contractually. However, the liquidity of current assets is unpredictable (risk of sales flops or inventory write-downs, etc.). Consequently, the clearly defined maturity structure of a company’s liabilities contrasts with the unpredictable liquidity of its assets.
Therefore, short-term creditors will take into account differences between a company’s asset liquidity and its liability structure. They will require the company to maintain current assets at a level exceeding that of short-term liabilities to provide a margin of safety. Hence the sacrosanct rule in finance that each and every company must have assets due to be monetised in less than one year at least equal to its liabilities falling due within one year.
2/ SOLVENCY
In accounting terms, a company may be regarded as insolvent once its shareholders’ equity turns negative. This means that it owes more than it owns.
Sometimes, the word solvency is used in a broader sense, meaning the ability of a company to repay its debts as they become due (see Chapter 12).
3/ NET ASSET VALUE OR THE BOOK VALUE OF SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY
This is a solvency-oriented concept that attempts to compute the funds invested by shareholders by valuing the company as the difference between its assets and its liabilities. Net asset value is an accounting and, in some instances, tax-related term, rather than a financial one.
The book value of shareholders’ equity is equal to everything a company owns less everything it already owes or may owe. Financiers often talk about net asset value, which leads to confusion among non-specialists, who can construe them as total assets net of depreciation, amortisation and impairment losses.
Book value of equity is thus equal to the sum of:
When a company is sold, the buyer will be keen to adopt an even stricter approach:
- by factoring in contingent liabilities (that do not appear on the balance sheet);
- by excluding worthless assets, i.e. of zero value. This very often applies to some intangible assets (see Chapter 7).
SUMMARY
QUESTIONS
EXERCISE
ANSWERS
BIBLIOGRAPHY
NOTES
Chapter 5. WALKING THROUGH FROM EARNINGS TO CASH FLOW
Or how to move mountains together!
Chapter 2 showed the structure of the cash flow statement, which brings together all the receipts and payments recorded during a given period and determines the change in net debt position.
Chapter 3 covered the structure of the income statement, which summarises all the revenues and charges during a period.
It may appear that these two radically different approaches have nothing in common. But common sense tells us that a rich woman will sooner or later have cash in her pocket, while a poor woman is likely to be strapped for cash – unless she should make her fortune along the way.
Although the complex workings of a business lead to differences between profits and cash, they converge at some point or another.
First of all, we will examine revenues and costs from a cash flow standpoint. Based on this analysis, we will establish a link between changes in wealth (earnings) and the change in net debt that bridges the two approaches.
We recommend that readers get to grips with this chapter, because understanding the transition from earnings to the change in net debt represents a key step in comprehending the financial workings of a business.
Section 5.1 ANALYSIS OF EARNINGS FROM A CASH FLOW PERSPECTIVE
This section is included merely for explanatory and conceptual purposes. Even so, it is vital to understand the basic financial workings of a company.
1/ OPERATING REVENUES
Operating receipts should correspond to sales for the same period, but they differ because:
- customers may be granted a payment period; and/or
- payments of invoices from the previous period may be received during the current period.
As a result, operating receipts are equal to sales only if sales are immediately paid in cash. Otherwise, they generate a change in trade receivables.
− | Increase in trade receivables | |||
Sales for the period | or | = | Operating receipts | |
+ | Reduction in trade receivables |
2/ CHANGES IN INVENTORIES OF FINISHED GOODS AND WORK IN PROGRESS
As we have already seen in by-nature income statements, the difference between production and sales is adjusted for through changes in inventories of finished goods and work in progress.1 But this is merely an accounting entry, to deduct from operating costs those costs that do not correspond to products sold. It has no impact from a cash standpoint.2 As a result, changes in inventories need to be reversed in a cash flow analysis.
3/ OPERATING COSTS
Operating costs differ from operating payments in the same way as operating revenues differ from operating receipts. Operating payments are the same as operating costs for a given period only when adjusted for:
- timing differences arising from the company’s payment terms (credit granted by its suppliers, etc.);
- the fact that some purchases are not used during the same period. The difference between purchases made and purchases used is adjusted for through change in inventories of raw materials.
These timing differences give rise to:
- changes in trade payables in the first case;
- discrepancies between raw materials used and purchases made, which are equal to change in inventories of raw materials and goods for resale.
The total amount of the timing differences between operating revenues and costs and between operating receipts and payments can thus be summarised as follows for by-nature and by-function income statements:
BY-NATURE INCOME STATEMENT | DIFFERENCE | CASH FLOW STATEMENT |
---|---|---|
Net sales | − Change in trade receivables (deferred payment) | = Operating receipts |
+ Changes in inventories of finished goods and work in progress | − Changes in inventories of finished goods and work in progress (deferred charges) | |
− Operating costs except depreciation, amortisation and impairment losses | − Change in trade payables (deferred payments) | = − Operating payments |
− Change in inventories of raw materials and goods for resale (deferred charges) | ||
= | = | = |
= EBITDA | − Change in operating working capital | = Operating cash flows |
BY-FUNCTION INCOME STATEMENT | DIFFERENCE | CASH FLOW STATEMENT |
---|---|---|
Net sales | − Change in trade receivables (deferred payment) + Change in trade payables (deferred payments) | = Operating receipts |
− Operating costs except depreciation, amortisation and impairment losses | − Change in inventories of finished goods, work in progress, raw materials and goods for resale (deferred changes) | = − Operating payments |
= EBITDA | − Change in operating working capital | = Operating cash flows |
Astute readers will have noticed that the items in the central column of the above table are the components of the change in operating working capital between two periods, as defined in Chapter 4.
Over a given period, the change in operating working capital represents a need for, or a source of, financing.
If positive, it represents a financing requirement and we refer to an increase in operating working capital. If negative, it represents a source of funds and we refer to a reduction in operating working capital.
The change in working capital merely represents a straightforward timing difference between the balance of operating cash flows (operating cash flow) and the wealth created by the operating cycle (EBITDA). As we shall see, it is important to remember that timing differences may not necessarily be small, of limited importance, short or negligible in any way.
4/ CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
Capital expenditures3 lead to a change in what the company owns without any immediate increase or decrease in its wealth. Consequently, they are not shown directly on the income statement. Conversely, capital expenditures have a direct impact on the cash flow statement.
A company’s capital expenditure process leads to both cash outflows that do not diminish its wealth at all and the accounting recognition of impairment in the purchased assets through depreciation and amortisation that does not reflect any cash outflows.
Accordingly, there is no direct link between cash flow and net income for the capital expenditure process, as we knew already.
5/ FINANCING
Financing is, by its very nature, a cycle that is specific to inflows and outflows. Sources of financing (new borrowings, capital increases, etc.) do not appear on the income statement, which shows only the remuneration paid on some of these resources, i.e. interest on borrowings but not dividends on equity.
Outflows representing a return on sources of financing may be analysed as either costs (i.e. interest) or a distribution of wealth created by the company among its equity capital providers (i.e. dividends).
To keep things simple, assuming that there are no timing differences between the recognition of a cost and the corresponding cash outflow, a distinction needs to be drawn between:
- interest payments on debt financing (financial expense) and income tax, which affect the company’s cash position and its earnings;
- the payments made to equity capital providers (dividends), which affects the company’s cash position and earnings transferred to reserves;
- new borrowings and repayment of borrowings, capital increases and share buy-backs,4 which affect its cash position, but have no impact on earnings.
Lastly, corporate income tax represents a charge that appears on the income statement and a cash payment to the state which, though it may not provide any financing to the company, provides it with a range of free services and entitlements, e.g. police, education, roads, etc. Corporate income tax is not always paid as soon as it becomes a cost, thus creating another time lag between a cost and its payment (similar to a variation in working capital).
We can now finish off our table and walk through from earnings to decrease in net debt:
FROM THE INCOME STATEMENT… TO THE CASH FLOW STATEMENT
INCOME STATEMENT | DIFFERENCE | CASH FLOW STATEMENT | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | − | Change in operating working capital | = | − | Operating cash flow | |
− | Capital expenditure | = | − | Capital expenditure | ||
+ | Disposals | = | + | Disposals | ||
− | Depreciation, amortisation and impairment losses on fixed assets | + | Depreciation, amortisation and impairment losses on fixed assets (non-cash charges) | |||
= | EBIT (operating profit) | = | Free cash flow before tax | |||
− | Financial expense net of financial income | − | Financial expense net of financial income | |||
− | Corporate income tax | − | = | − | Corporate income tax | |
+ | Proceeds from share issues | = | + | Proceeds from share issues | ||
– | Share buy-backs | – | Share buy-backs | |||
– | Dividends paid | = | – | Dividends paid | ||
= | Net income (net earnings) | + | Column total | = | Decrease in net debt |
Section 5.2 CASH FLOW STATEMENT
The same table enables us to move in the opposite direction and thus account for the decrease in net debt based on the income statement. To do so, we simply need to add back all the movements shown in the central column to net profit.
The following reasoning may help our attempt to classify the various line items that enable us to make the transition from net income to decrease in net debt.
Net income should normally turn up in “cash at hand”. That said, we also need to add back certain non-cash costs (depreciation, amortisation and impairment losses on fixed assets) that were deducted on the way down the income statement but have no cash impact, to arrive at what is known as cash flow.
Cash flow will appear in “cash at hand” only once the timing differences related to the operating cycle as measured by change in operating working capital have been taken into account.
Lastly, the investing and financing cycles give rise to uses and sources of funds that have no immediate impact on net income.
1/ FROM NET INCOME TO CASH FLOW
As we have just seen, depreciation, amortisation, impairment losses on fixed assets and provisions are non-cash costs that have no impact on a company’s cash position. From a cash flow standpoint, they are no different from net income.
These two items form the company’s cash flow, which accountants allocate between net income on the one hand and depreciation, amortisation and impairment losses on the other hand, according to the relevant accounting and tax legislation.
The simplicity of the cash flow statement shown in Chapter 2 was probably evident to our readers, but it would not fail to shock traditional accountants, who would find it hard to accept that financial expense should be placed on a par with repayments of borrowings. Raising debt to pay financial expense is not the same as replacing one debt with another. The former makes the company poorer, whereas the latter constitutes liability management.
As a result, traditionalists have managed to establish the concept of cash flow. We need to point out that we would advise computing cash flow before any capital gains (or losses) on asset disposals and before non-recurring items, simply because they are non-recurrent items. Cash flow is only relevant in a cash flow statement if it is not made artificially volatile by inclusion of non-recurring items.
Cash flow is not as pure a concept as EBITDA. That said, a direct link may be established between these two concepts by deriving cash flow from the income statement using the top-down method:
or the bottom-up method:
* So as not to take them into account in the computation of cash flow as they are already included in net income.
Cash flow is influenced by the same accounting policies as EBITDA. Likewise, it is not affected by the accounting policies applied to tangible and intangible fixed assets.
Note that the calculation method differs slightly for consolidated accounts,5 since the contribution to consolidated net profit made by equity-accounted income is replaced by the dividend payment received. This is attributable to the fact that the parent company does not actually receive the earnings of an associate company since it does not control it, but merely receives a dividend.
Furthermore, cash flow is calculated at group level without taking into account minority interests. This seems logical, since the parent company has control of and allocates the cash flows of its fully-consolidated subsidiaries even if they are not fully owned. In the cash flow statement, minority interests in the controlled subsidiaries are reflected only through the dividend payments that they receive.
Lastly, readers should beware of cash flow as there are nearly as many definitions of cash flow as there are companies in the world!
The preceding definition is widely used, but frequently free cash flows, cash flow from operating activities and operating cash flow are simply called “cash flow” by some professionals. So, it is safest to check which cash flow they are talking about.
2/ FROM CASH FLOW TO CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES
In Chapter 2 we introduced the concept of cash flow from operating activities, which is not the same as cash flow.
To go from cash flow to cash flow from operating activities, we need to adjust for the timing differences in cash flows linked to the operating cycle.
This gives us the following equation:
Note that the term “operating activities” is used here in a fairly broad sense, since it includes financial expense and corporate income tax.
3/ OTHER MOVEMENTS IN CASH
We have now isolated the movements in cash deriving from the operating cycle, so we can proceed to allocate the other movements to the investment and financing cycles.
The investment cycle includes:
- capital expenditures (acquisitions of tangible and intangible assets);
- disposals of fixed assets, i.e. the price at which fixed assets are sold and not any capital gains or losses (which do not represent cash flows);
- changes in long-term investments (i.e. financial assets).
Where appropriate, we may also factor in the impact of timing differences in cash flows generated by this cycle, notably non-operating working capital (e.g. amount owed to a supplier of a fixed asset).
The financing cycle includes:
- capital increases in cash, the payment of dividends (i.e. payment out of the previous year’s net profit) and share buy-backs;
- change in net debt resulting from the repayment of (short-, medium- and long-term) borrowings, new borrowings, changes in marketable securities (short-term investments) and changes in cash and equivalents.
This brings us back to the cash flow statement in Chapter 2, but using the indirect method, which starts with net income and classifies cash flows by cycle (i.e. operating, investing or financing activities; see next page).
In practice, most companies publish a cash flow statement that starts with net income and moves down to changes in “cash and equivalents” or change in “cash”, a poorly defined concept since certain companies include marketable securities while others deduct bank overdrafts and short-term borrowings.
Net debt reflects the level of indebtedness of a company much better than cash and cash equivalents or than cash and cash equivalents minus short-term borrowings, since the latter are only a portion of the debt position of a company. On the one hand, one can infer relevant conclusions from changes in the net debt position of a company. On the other hand, changes in cash and cash equivalents are rarely relevant as it is so easy to increase cash on the balance sheet at the closing date: simply get into long-term debt and put the proceeds in a bank account! Cash on the balance sheet has increased but net debt is still the same.
CASH FLOW STATEMENT FOR ARCELORMITTAL ($M)
2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OPERATING ACTIVITIES | ||||||
Net income | 1,734 | 4,575 | 5,330 | (2,391) | (578) | |
+ | Depreciation, amortisation and impairment losses on fixed assets | 2,721 | 2,768 | 2,799 | 2,969 | 2,894 |
+ | Other non-cash items | 50 | (1,263) | (3,173) | 2,720 | (132) |
= | CASH FLOW | 4,505 | 6,080 | 4,956 | 3,298 | 2,184 |
− | Change in working capital | 1,000 | 1,841 | 83 | (3,042) | (1,841) |
= | CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES (A) | 3,505 | 4,239 | 4,873 | 6,340 | 4,025 |
INVESTING ACTIVITIES | ||||||
Capital expenditure | 2,444 | 2,819 | 3,305 | 3,772 | 2,578 | |
− | Disposal of fixed assets | 119 | 22 | 26 | 468 | 237 |
+ | Acquisition of financial assets | – | 77 | 744 | 838 | – |
− | Disposal of financial assets | 1,182 | 44 | 301 | 318 | 3,017 |
= | CASH FLOW FROM INVESTING ACTIVITIES (B) | (1,143) | (2,830) | (3,722) | (3,824) | 676 |
= | FREE CASH FLOW AFTER FINANCIAL EXPENSE (A – B) | 2,362 | 1,409 | 1,151 | 2,516 | 4,701 |
FINANCING ACTIVITIES | ||||||
Proceeds from share issues (C) | 3,115 | – | (226) | (90) | 1,477 | |
Dividends paid (D) | 61 | 141 | 220 | 332 | 181 | |
A − B + C − D = DECREASE/(INCREASE) IN NET DEBT | 5,416 | 1,268 | 705 | 2,094 | 5,997 | |
Decrease in net debt can be broken down as follows: | ||||||
Repayment of short-, medium- and long-term borrowings | 8,429 | 4,363 | 3,669 | 5,110 | 5,782 | |
− | New short-, medium- and long-term borrowings | 1,526 | 3,266 | 2,532 | 5,657 | 753 |
+ | Change in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities (short-term investments) | (1,487) | 171 | (432) | 2,641 | 968 |
= | DECREASE/(INCREASE) IN NET DEBT | 5,416 | 1,268 | 705 | 2,094 | 5,997 |
However, it is easy to deduct the change in cash available and cash equivalents from the change in indebtedness:
2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A − B + C − D = DECREASE/(INCREASE) IN NET DEBT | 5,416 | 1,268 | 705 | 2,094 | 5,997 | |
– | Repayment of short-, medium- and long-term borrowings | 8,429 | 4,363 | 3,669 | 5,110 | 5,782 |
+ | New short-, medium- and long-term borrowings | 1,526 | 3,266 | 2,532 | 5,657 | 753 |
= | Change in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities (short-term investments) | (1,487) | 171 | (432) | 2,641 | 968 |
SUMMARY
QUESTIONS
EXERCISE
ANSWERS
BIBLIOGRAPHY
NOTES
- 1 This adjustment is not necessary in by-function income statements, as explained in Chapter 3.
- 2 In accounting parlance, this is known as a “closing entry”.
- 3 Or investments in fixed assets.
- 4 When a company buys back some of its shares from some of its shareholders. For more details, see Chapter 37.
- 5 For details on consolidated accounts, see Chapter 6.
Chapter 6. GETTING TO GRIPS WITH CONSOLIDATED ACCOUNTS
A group-building exercise
This chapter deals with the basic aspects of consolidation that should be understood by anyone interested in corporate finance.
An analysis of the accounting documents of each individual company belonging to a group does not serve as a very accurate or useful guide to the economic health of the whole group. The accounts of a company reflect the other companies that it controls only through the book value of its shareholdings (revalued or written down, where appropriate) and the size of the dividends that it receives.
The goal of this chapter is to familiarise readers with the problems arising from consolidation. Consequently, we present an example-based guide to the main aspects of consolidation in order to facilitate analysis of consolidated accounts.
Section 6.1 CONSOLIDATION METHODS
Any firm that controls other companies exclusively should prepare consolidated accounts and a management report for the group.1
Consolidated accounts must be certified by the statutory auditors and, together with the group’s management report, made available to shareholders, debtholders and all other parties with a vested interest in the company.
Listed European companies have been required to use IFRS2 accounting principles for their consolidated financial statements since 2005 and groups from most other countries have been required or allowed to use these accounting standards since then.
The companies to be included in the preparation of consolidated accounts form what is known as the scope of consolidation. The scope of consolidation comprises:
- the parent company;
- the companies in which the parent company has a material influence (which is assumed when the parent company holds at least 20% of the voting rights).
However, a subsidiary should not be consolidated when its parent loses the power to govern its financial and operating policies, for example when the subsidiary becomes subject to the control of a government, a court or an administration. Such subsidiaries should be accounted for at fair market value.
For instance, let us consider a company with a subsidiary that appears on its balance sheet with an amount of 20. Consolidation entails replacing the historical cost of 20 with all or some of the assets, liabilities and equity of the company being consolidated.
There are two methods of consolidation which are used, depending on the strength of the parent company’s control or influence over its subsidiary:
Type of relationship | Type of company | Consolidation method |
---|---|---|
Control | Subsidiary | Full consolidation3 |
Significant influence | Associate | Equity method |
We will now examine each of these two methods in terms of its impact on sales, net profit and shareholders’ equity.
1/ FULL CONSOLIDATION
The accounts of a subsidiary are fully consolidated if the latter is controlled by its parent. Control is defined as the ability to direct the strategic financing and operating policies of an entity so as to access benefits. It is presumed to exist when the parent company:
- holds, directly or indirectly, over 50% of the voting rights in its subsidiary;
- holds, directly or indirectly, less than 50% of the voting rights but has power over more than 50% of the voting rights by virtue of an agreement with other investors;
- has power to govern the financial and operating policies of the subsidiary under a statute or an agreement;
- has power to cast the majority of votes at meetings of the board of directors; or
- has power to appoint or remove the majority of the members of the board.
The criterion of exclusive control is the key factor under IFRS standards. It can encompass companies in which only a minority is held (or even no shares at all!) provided the subsidiary is deemed to be controlled by the parent company.
As its name suggests, full consolidation consists of transferring all the subsidiary’s assets, liabilities and equity to the parent company’s balance sheet and all the revenues and costs to the parent company’s income statement.
The assets, liabilities and equity thus replace the investments held by the parent company, which therefore disappear from its balance sheet.
That said, when the subsidiary is not controlled exclusively by the parent company, the claims of the other “minority” shareholders on the subsidiary’s equity and net income also need to be shown on the consolidated balance sheet and income statement of the group.
Assuming there is no difference between the book value of the parent’s investment in the subsidiary and the share of the book value of the subsidiary’s equity,4 full consolidation works as follows.
- On the balance sheet:
- the historical cost amount of the shares in the consolidated subsidiary held by the parent is eliminated from the parent company’s balance sheet and the same amount is deducted from the parent company‘s reserves;
- the subsidiary’s assets and liabilities are added item by item to the parent company’s balance sheet;
- the subsidiary’s equity (including net income) is then allocated between the interests of the parent company, which is added to its reserves, and those of minority investors in the subsidiary (if the parent company does not hold 100% of the capital), called minority interests, which is added on an individualised line of shareholders’ equity below the group’s share of shareholders’ equity.
- On the income statement, all the subsidiary’s revenues and charges are added item by item to the parent company’s income statement. The subsidiary’s net income is then broken down into:
- the portion attributable to the parent company, which is added to the parent company’s net income to create the line net income attributable to shareholders or group share net income;
- the portion attributable to third-party investors, which is shown on a separate line of the income statement under the heading “minority interests”.
From a solvency standpoint, minority interests certainly represent shareholders’ equity. But from a valuation standpoint, they add no value to the group since minority interests represent shareholders’ equity and net profit attributable to third parties and not to shareholders of the parent company.
To illustrate the full consolidation method, consider the following example assuming that the parent company owns 75% of the subsidiary company.
The original non-consolidated balance sheets are as follows:
Parent company’s balance sheet | Subsidiary’s balance sheet | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Investment in the subsidiary5 | 15 | Shareholders’ equity | 70 | Assets | 28 | Shareholders’ equity | 20 | |||
Other assets | 57 | Liabilities | 2 | Liabilities | 8 |
In this scenario, the consolidated balance sheet would be as follows:
Consolidated balance sheet | |||
---|---|---|---|
Investment in the subsidiary (15 − 15) | 0 | Shareholders’ equity (70 –15 + 20) | 75 |
Assets (57 + 28) | 85 | Liabilities (2 + 8) | 10 |
Or, in an alternative form:
Consolidated balance sheet | |||
---|---|---|---|
Assets | 85 | Shareholders’ equity group share (75 − 5) | 70 |
Minority interests (20 × 25%) | 5 | ||
Liabilities | 10 |
Group assets and liabilities thus correspond to the sum of the assets and liabilities of the parent company and those of its subsidiary. Group equity is equal to the equity of the parent company increased by the share of the subsidiary’s net income not paid out as dividends since the parent company started consolidating this subsidiary. Minority interests correspond to the share of minority shareholders in the equity and net income of the subsidiary.
The original income statements are as follows:
Parent company’s income statement | Subsidiary’s income statement | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Costs | 80 | Net sales | 100 | Costs | 30 | Net sales | 38 | ||||
Net income | 20 | Net income | 8 |
In this scenario, the consolidated income statement would be as follows:
Consolidated income statement | |||
---|---|---|---|
Costs (80 + 30) | 110 | Net sales (100 + 38) | 138 |
Net income (20 + 8) | 28 |
Or, in a more detailed form:
Consolidated income statement | |||
---|---|---|---|
Costs | 110 | Net sales | 138 |
Net income: | |||
Group share | 26 | ||
Minority interest (8 × 25%) | 2 |
Right up until the penultimate line of the income statement, financial analysis assumes that the parent company owns 100% of the subsidiary.
2/ EQUITY METHOD OF ACCOUNTING
When the parent company exercises significant influence over the operating and financial policy of its associate, the latter is accounted for under the equity method. Significant influence over the operating and financial policy of a company is assumed when the parent holds, directly or indirectly, at least 20% of the voting rights. Significant influence may be reflected by participation on the executive and supervisory bodies, participation in strategic decisions, the existence of major intercompany links, exchanges of management personnel and a relationship of dependence from a technical standpoint.
Most companies that were consolidated under the proportionate method are now consolidated under the equity method, since the former method has been banned by IFRS.
Equity accounting consists of replacing the carrying amount of the shares held in an associate (also known as an equity affiliate or associated undertaking) with the corresponding portion of the associate’s shareholders’ equity (including net income).
This method is purely financial. Both the group’s investments and aggregate profit are thus reassessed on an annual basis. Accordingly, the IASB regards equity accounting as being more of a valuation method than a method of consolidation.
From a technical standpoint, equity accounting takes place as follows:
- the historical cost of shares held in the associate is subtracted from the parent company’s investments and replaced by the share attributable to the parent company in the associate’s shareholders’ equity including net income for the year;
- the carrying value of the associate’s shares is subtracted from the parent company’s reserves, to which is added the share in the associate’s shareholders’ equity, excluding the associate’s income attributable to the parent company;
- the portion of the associate’s net income attributable to the parent company is added to its net income on the balance sheet and the income statement.
The equity method of accounting therefore leads to an increase each year in the carrying amount of the shareholding on the consolidated balance sheet, by an amount equal to its share of the net income transferred to reserves by the associate.
However, from a solvency standpoint, this method does not provide any clue to the group’s risk exposure and liabilities (debts, guarantees given, etc.) vis-à-vis its associate. The implication is that the group’s risk exposure is restricted to the value of its shareholding.
To illustrate the equity method of accounting, let us consider the following example based on the assumption that the parent company owns 20% of its associate:
The non-consolidated balance sheets are as follows:
Parent company’s balance sheet | Associate’s balance sheet | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Investment in the associate | 5 | Shareholders’ equity | 60 | Assets | 45 | Shareholders’ equity | 35 | ||||
Other assets | 57 | Liabilities | 2 | Liabilities | 10 |
In this scenario, the consolidated balance sheet would be as follows:
Consolidated balance sheet | |||
---|---|---|---|
Investment in the associate (5 − 5 + 20% × 35) | 7 | Shareholders’ equity (60 – 5 + 7) | 62 |
Other assets | 57 | Liabilities | 2 |
The non-consolidated income statements are as follows:
Parent company’s income statement | Associate’s income statement | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Costs | 80 | Net sales | 100 | Costs | 30 | Net sales | 35 | ||||
Net income | 20 | Net income | 5 |
In this scenario, the consolidated income statement would be as follows:
Consolidated income statement | |||
---|---|---|---|
Costs | 80 | Net sales | 100 |
Net income (20 + 5 × 20%) | 21 | Minority interest (5 × 20%) | 1 |
Section 6.2 CONSOLIDATION-RELATED ISSUES
1/ SCOPE OF CONSOLIDATION
The scope of consolidation, i.e. the companies to be consolidated, is determined using the rules we presented in Section 6.1. To determine the scope of consolidation, one needs to establish the level of control exercised by the parent company over each of the companies in which it owns shares.
(a) Level of control and ownership level
The level of control6 measures the strength of direct or indirect dependence that exists between the parent company and its subsidiaries, joint ventures or associates. Although control is assessed in a broader way in IFRS (see page 72), the percentage of voting rights that the parent company controls (what we call here “level of control”) will be a key indication to determine whether the subsidiary is controlled or significantly influenced.
To calculate the level of control, we must look at the percentage of voting rights held by all group companies in the subsidiary provided that the group companies are controlled directly or indirectly by the parent company.
Control is assumed when the percentage of voting rights held is 50% or higher or when a situation of de facto control exists at each link in the chain.
It is important not to confuse the level of control with the level of ownership. Generally speaking, these two concepts are different. The ownership level7 is used to calculate the parent company’s claims on its subsidiaries, joint ventures or associates. It reflects the proportion of their capital held directly or indirectly by the parent company. It is a financial concept, unlike the level of control, which is a power-related concept.
The ownership level is the sum of the product of the direct and indirect percentage stakes held by the parent company in a given company. The ownership level differs from the level of control, which considers only the controlled subsidiaries.
Consider the following example:
A controls 60% of B, B controls 70% of D, so A controls 70% of D. D and B are therefore considered as controlled and thus fully consolidated by A. But A does not own 70%, but 42% of D (i.e. 60% × 70%). The ownership level of A over D is then 42%: only 42% of D’s net income is attributable to A.
Since C owns just 10% of E, C will not consolidate E. Neither will D as it only owns 15% of E. But since A controls 20% of C, A will account for C under the equity method and will show 20% of C’s net income in its income statement.
The ownership level of A over E is 20% × 10% + 60% × 70% × 15% = 8.3%. The percentage of control of A over E is 15%.
How the ownership level is used varies from one consolidation method to another:
- with full consolidation, the ownership level is used only to allocate the subsidiary’s reserves and net income between the parent company and minority interests in the subsidiary;
- with the equity method of accounting, the ownership level is used to determine the portion of the subsidiary’s shareholders’ equity and net income attributable to the parent company.
(b) Changes in the scope of consolidation
It is important to analyse the scope of consolidation, especially with regard to what has changed and what is excluded. Indeed, a decision not to consolidate a company means concealing its losses, its shareholders’ equity as well as the amount of its liabilities.
Using the equity method for consolidating a subsidiary, which should in fact be fully consolidated, allows one to avoid showing its debts in the group’s consolidated balance sheet.
Certain techniques can be used to remove subsidiaries still controlled by the parent company from the scope of consolidation. These techniques have been developed to make certain consolidated accounts look more attractive. These techniques frequently involve a special-purpose vehicle (SPV). The SPV is a separate legal entity created specially to handle a venture on behalf of a company. In many cases, from a legal standpoint the SPV belongs to banks or to investors rather than to the company. That said, the company must consolidate the SPV if it controls it, even without owning a single of its shares, as explained in the first paragraph of Section 6.1. These rules make it very difficult to use this type of scheme under IFRS or US GAAP.
Changes in the scope of consolidation require the preparation of pro forma financial statements. Pro forma statements enable analysts to compare the company’s performances on a consistent basis. In these pro forma statements, the company restate past accounts to make them comparable with the current scope of consolidation.
2/ GOODWILL
It is very unusual for one company to acquire another for exactly its book value.
Generally speaking, there is a difference between the acquisition price, which may be paid in cash or in shares, and the portion of the target company’s shareholders’ equity attributable to the parent company. In most cases, this difference is positive as the price paid exceeds the target’s book value.
(a) What does this difference represent?
In other words, why should a company agree to pay out more for another company than its book value? There are several possible explanations:
- the assets recorded on the acquired company’s balance sheet are worth more than their carrying cost. This situation may result from the prudence principle, which means that unrealised capital losses have to be taken into account, but not unrealised capital gains;
- it is perfectly conceivable that assets such as patents, licences and market shares that the company has accumulated over the years without wishing to, or even being able to, account for them, may not appear on the balance sheet. This situation is especially true if the company is highly profitable;
- the merger between the two companies may create synergies, either in the form of cost reductions and/or revenue enhancement. The buyer is likely to partly reflect them in the price offered to the seller;
- the buyer may be ready to pay a high price for a target just to prevent a new player from buying it, entering the market and putting the current level of the buyer’s profitability under pressure;
- finally, the buyer may quite simply have overpaid for the deal.
(b) How is goodwill accounted for?
When first consolidated, the assets of the new subsidiary or joint venture are valued at their fair value and are recorded on the group’s balance sheet in these amounts. Intangible assets of the acquired company in particular are valued, even if they aren’t recognised on its balance sheet: brands concerned, patents, software, emissions permits or landing rights, customer lists, etc. Accordingly, the equity capital of the newly consolidated company will be revalued.
The difference between the price paid by the parent company for its shares in the acquired company and the parent company’s share in the revalued equity of the acquired company is called goodwill. It appears on the asset side of the new group’s balance sheet as intangible assets.
For associates recently accounted for under the equity method of accounting, goodwill is calculated extra-accountably since their assets and liabilities are not included in the consolidated balance sheet. They are then added to other goodwill.
Under IFRS and US GAAP, goodwill is assessed each year to verify whether its value is at least equal to its net book value as shown on the group’s balance sheet. This assessment is called an impairment test. If the market value of goodwill is below its book value, then goodwill is written down to its fair market value and a corresponding impairment loss is recorded in the income statement.8 This impairment loss cannot be reversed in the future.
To illustrate the purchase method, let’s analyse now how LVMH accounted for the acquisition of the luxury hotels group, Belmond, in 2019.
Prior to the acquisition, LVMH’s balance sheet (in billions of EUR) can be summarised as follows:
Intangible assets | 31.0 | Shareholders’ equity | 34.0 |
Other fixed assets | 17.8 | Net debt | 18.9 |
Working capital | 7.2 | Deferred tax | 3.1 |
While Belmond’s balance sheet (in billions of EUR) was as follows:
Intangible assets | 0 | Shareholders’ equity | 0.3 |
Other fixed assets | 1.1 | Provisions | 0.6 |
Working capital | −0.1 | Net debt | 0.1 |
LVMH acquired 100% of Belmond for €2.3bn paid for in cash. Therefore, LVMH paid €2bn9 more than Belmond equity. This amount is not equal to goodwill, as LVMH proceeded to a revaluation of assets and liabilities of Belmond as follows:
| +€0.1bn |
| +€1.2bn |
| +€0.1bn |
+€0.4bn | |
| +€0.0bn |
Total adjustments amount to €1.0bn (–0.1 + 1.2 + 0.1 – 0.4 – 0.3). Consequently, the amount of goodwill created was €2.0bn – €1.0bn = €1.0bn. The simplified balance sheet of the combined entity was therefore as follows:
Intangible assets | 31.0 + 0 + 0.1 = 31.1 | Shareholders’ equity | 34.0 |
Goodwill | 1.1 | Net debt | 18.9 + 0.6 + 0.0 + 2.3 = 21.8 |
Other fixed assets | 17.8 + 1.1 + 1.2 = 20.1 | Deferred tax | 3.1 + 0.1 + 0.4 = 3.6 |
Working capital | 7.2 – 0.1 + 0.1 = 7.2 |
Finally, transactions may give rise to negative goodwill under certain circumstances. Under IFRS, negative goodwill is immediately recognised as a profit in the income statement of the new group.
(c) How should financial analysts treat goodwill?
From a financial standpoint, it is sensible to regard goodwill as an asset like any other, which may suffer sudden falls in value that need to be recognised by means of an impairment charge. We advise our readers to treat impairment charges as non-recurring items and to exclude them for the computation of returns (see Chapter 13) or earnings per share (see Chapter 22).
Can it be argued that goodwill impairment losses do not reflect any decrease in the company’s wealth because there is no outflow of cash? We do not think so.
Granted, goodwill impairment losses are a non-cash item, but it would be wrong to say that only decisions giving rise to cash flows affect a company’s value. For instance, setting a maximum limit on voting rights or attributing 10 voting rights to certain categories of shares does not have any cash impact, but definitely reduces the value of the excluded shares.
Recognising the impairment of goodwill related to a past acquisition is tantamount to admitting that the price paid was too high. But what if the acquisition was paid for in shares? This makes no difference whatsoever, irrespective of whether the buyer’s shares were overvalued at the same time.
Had the company carried out a share issue rather than overpaying for an acquisition, it would have been able to capitalise on its lofty share price to the great benefit of existing shareholders. The cash raised through the share issue would have been used to make acquisitions at much more reasonable prices once the wave of euphoria had subsided.
It is essential to remember that shareholders in a company which pays for a deal in shares suffer dilution in their interest. They accept this dilution because they take the view that the size of the cake will grow at a faster rate (e.g. by 30%) than the number of guests invited to the party (e.g. by over 25%). Should it transpire that the cake grows at merely 10% rather than the expected 30% because the purchased assets prove to be worth less than anticipated, then the number of guests at the party will unfortunately stay the same. Accordingly, the size of each guest’s slice of the cake falls by 12% (110 / 125 − 1), so shareholders’ wealth has certainly diminished.
(d) How should financial analysts treat “adjusted income”?
Some groups (particularly in the pharmaceutical sector) like Pfizer or Sanofi, following an acquisition, publish an “adjusted income” to neutralise the P&L impact of the revaluation of assets and liabilities of its newly acquired subsidiary. Naturally, a P&L account is drawn up under normal standards, but it carries an audited table showing the impact of the switch to adjusted income on operating income and net income.
As a matter of fact, by virtue of the revaluation of the target’s inventories to their market value, the normal process of selling the inventories generates no profit. So how relevant will the P&L be in the first year after the merger? This issue becomes critical only when the production cycle is very long and therefore the revaluation of inventories (and potentially research and development capitalised) is material.
We believe that for those specific cases, groups are right to show this adjusted P&L.
Section 6.3 TECHNICAL ASPECTS OF CONSOLIDATION
1/ HARMONISING ACCOUNTING DATA
Since consolidation consists of aggregating accounts, give or take some adjustments, it is important to ensure that the accounting data used are consistent, i.e. based on the same principles.
Usually, the valuation methods used in individual company accounts are determined by accounting or tax issues specific to each subsidiary, especially when some of them are located outside the group’s home country. This is particularly true for provisions, depreciation and amortisation, fixed assets, inventories and work in progress, deferred charges and shareholders’ equity.
These differences need to be eliminated upon consolidation. This process is facilitated by the fact that most of the time consolidated accounts are not prepared to calculate taxable income, so groups may disregard the prevailing tax regulations.
Prior to consolidation, the consolidating company needs to restate the accounts of the to-be-consolidated companies. The consolidating company applies the same valuation principles and makes adjustments for the impact of the valuation differences that are justified on tax grounds, e.g. tax-regulated provisions, accelerated depreciation for tax purposes and so on.
2/ ELIMINATING INTRA-GROUP TRANSACTIONS
Contrary to the simplified vision we presented in Section 6.1, consolidation entails more than the mere aggregation of accounts. Before the consolidation process as such can begin, intra-group transactions and their impact on net income have to be eliminated from the accounts of both the parent company and its consolidated companies.
Assume, for instance, that the parent company has sold to subsidiaries products at cost plus a margin. An entirely fictitious gain would show up in the group’s accounts if the relevant products were merely held in stock by the subsidiaries rather than being sold on to third parties. Naturally, this fictitious gain, which would be a distortion of reality, needs to be eliminated.
Intra-group transactions to be eliminated upon consolidation can be broken down into two categories:
- Those that are very significant because they affect consolidated net income. It is therefore vital for such transactions to be reversed. The goal is to avoid showing the same profit twice in two different years. The reversal of these transactions upon consolidation leads primarily to the elimination of:
- intra-group profits included in inventories;
- capital gains arising on the transfer or contribution of investments;
- dividends received from consolidated companies;
- impairment losses on intra-group loans or investments; and
- tax on intra-group profits.
- Those that are not fundamental because they have no impact on consolidated net income or those affecting the assets or liabilities of the consolidated entities. These transactions are eliminated through netting, so as to show the real level of the group’s debt. They include:
- parent-to-subsidiary loans (advances to the subsidiary) and vice versa;
- interest paid by the parent company to the consolidated companies (financial income of the latter) and vice versa.
3/ TRANSLATING THE ACCOUNTS OF FOREIGN SUBSIDIARIES
(a) The problem
The translation of the accounts of foreign companies is a tricky issue because of exchange rate fluctuations and the difference between inflation rates, which may distort the picture provided by company accounts.
For instance, a parent company located in the Eurozone may own a subsidiary in a country with a soft currency.11
Using year-end exchange rates to convert the assets of its subsidiary into the parent company’s currency understates their value. From an economic standpoint, all the assets do not suffer depreciation proportional to that of the subsidiary’s home currency.
On the one hand, fixed assets are protected to some extent. Inflation means that it would cost more in the subsidiary’s local currency to replace them after the devaluation in the currency than before. All in all, the inflation and devaluation phenomena may actually offset each other, so the value of the subsidiary’s fixed assets in the parent company’s currency is roughly stable. On the other hand, inventories (usually), receivables and liabilities (irrespective of their maturity) denominated in the devalued currency all depreciate in tandem with the currency.
If the subsidiary is located in a country with a hard currency (i.e. a stronger one than that of the parent company), then the situation is similar but the implications are reversed.
To present an accurate image of developments in the foreign subsidiary’s situation, it is necessary to take into account:
- the impact on the consolidated accounts of the translation of the subsidiary’s currency into the parent company’s currency;
- the adjustment that would stem from translation of the foreign subsidiary’s fixed assets into the local currency.
(b) Methods
Several methods may be used at the same time to translate different items in the balance sheet and income statement of foreign subsidiaries, giving rise to currency translation differences.
The most frequently used method is called the closing rate method: all assets and liabilities are translated at the closing rate, which is the rate of exchange at the balance sheet date.12 Revenues and charges on the income statement are translated at the average rate over the fiscal year.13 Currency translation differences are recorded under shareholders’ equity, with a distinction being made between the group’s share and that attributable to minority investors. This translation method is used under IFRS and it is relatively comparable to the US standard.
The temporal method consists of translating:
- monetary items (i.e. cash and sums receivable or payable denominated in the foreign company’s currency and determined in advance) at the closing rate;
- non-monetary items (fixed assets and the corresponding depreciation and amortisation,14 inventories, prepayments, shareholders’ equity, investments, etc.) at the exchange rate at the date to which the historical cost or valuation pertains (i.e. the exchange rate on the day on which the asset or liability was acquired or contracted);
- revenues and charges on the income statement theoretically at the exchange rate prevailing on the transaction date. In practice, however, they are usually translated at an average exchange rate for the period.
Under the temporal method, the difference between the net income on the balance sheet and that on the income statement is recorded on the income statement under foreign exchange gains and losses.
(c) Translating the accounts of subsidiaries located in hyperinflationary countries
A hyperinflationary country is one where inflation is both chronic and out of control. In such circumstances, the previous methods are not suitable for translating the effects of inflation into the accounts.
Hence the use of a specific method based on restatements made by applying a general price index. Elements such as monetary items that are already stated at the measuring unit at the balance sheet date are not restated. Other elements are restated based on the change in the general price index between the date those items were acquired or incurred and the balance sheet consolidation. A gain or loss on the net monetary position is included in net income. IFRS prescribes this method, which is not allowed in the US where the temporal method is applied.
SUMMARY
QUESTIONS
EXERCISE
ANSWERS
BIBLIOGRAPHY
NOTES
- 1 Unless (i) the parent is itself a wholly owned subsidiary or is virtually wholly owned and (ii) its securities are not listed or about to be and (iii) the immediate or ultimate parent issues consolidated accounts.
- 2 IFRS rules are produced by the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB), a private organisation made up mainly of accountants from various parts of the world.
- 3 Or simply consolidation.
- 4 Which means “no goodwill”, a topic to which we will return in Section 6.2.
- 5 Valued at historical cost less depreciation if any.
- 6 Or percentage control.
- 7 Or percentage interest.
- 8 Unlisted US companies are allowed to systematically depreciate goodwill over a period of up to 10 years.
- 9 2.3bn − 0.3bn = 2bn.
- 10 See Chapter 7.
- 11 A soft or weak currency is a currency that tends to fall in value because of political or economic uncertainty (high inflation rate).
- 12 This method is also called the current rate method.
- 13 IFRS recommend using the exchange rate prevailing on the transaction date to translate revenues and charges but this is rarely done for practical reasons, except when large fluctuations in exchange rates were registered.
- 14 As an exception to this rule, goodwill is translated at the closing rate.
Chapter 7. HOW TO COPE WITH THE MOST COMPLEX POINTS IN FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS
Everything you always wanted to know but never dared to ask!
This chapter is rather different from the others. It is not intended to be read from start to finish, but consulted from time to time, whenever readers experience problems interpreting, analysing or processing a particular accounting item.
Each of these complex points will be analysed from these angles:
- from an economic standpoint so that readers gain a thorough understanding of its real substance;
- from an accounting standpoint to help readers understand the accounting treatment applied and how this treatment affects the published accounts;
- from a financial standpoint to draw a conclusion as to how best to deal with this problem.
Our experience tells us that this is the best way of getting to grips with and solving problems. The key point to understand in this chapter is the method we use to deal with complex issues, since we cannot look at every single point here. When faced with a different problem, readers will have to come up with their own solutions using our methodology – unless they contact us through the vernimmen.com website.
The following bullet list shows, in alphabetical order, the main line items and principal problems that readers are likely to face:
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Section 7.1 ACCRUALS
1/ WHAT ARE ACCRUALS?
Accruals are used to recognise revenue and costs booked in one period but relating to another period. “To accrue” basically means to transfer revenue or costs from the P&L to the balance sheet.
2/ HOW ARE THEY ACCOUNTED FOR?
The main categories of accruals are:
- prepaid costs, i.e. costs relating to goods or services to be supplied later. For instance, three-quarters of a rental charge payable in advance for a 12-month period on 1 October each year will be recorded under prepaid costs on the asset side of the balance sheet at 31 December;1
- deferred income, i.e. income accounted for before the corresponding goods or services have been delivered or carried out. For instance, a monthly magazine records three-quarters of the annual subscription payments it receives on 1 October under deferred income on the liabilities side of its balance sheet at 31 December.
We should also mention accrued income and cost, which work in the same way as deferred income and prepaid cost, only in reverse. For example, a company can accrue R&D costs, i.e. consider that it should not appear in the P&L but as an intangible asset that will be amortised or depreciated.
3/ HOW SHOULD FINANCIAL ANALYSTS TREAT THEM?
Deferred income and prepaid cost form part of operating working capital.
Section 7.2 CASH ASSETS
1/ WHAT ARE CASH ASSETS?
Cash assets correspond to short-term investment of a company’s cash surpluses (see Chapter 50).
2/ HOW ARE THEY ACCOUNTED FOR?
From an accounting point of view, such investments can only be considered as cash equivalent if they are very liquid, short term, easily converted into cash for a known amount and exposed to a negligible risk of change in value.
In practice, a certain number of criteria are applied (especially for UCITS): benchmark index, frequency of liquidity value, penalties in the event of exit, volatility, counterparty risk, etc.
Under IFRS, cash assets are valued on the basis of their fair value, with any gains and losses recognised in the income statement as financial income.
3/ HOW SHOULD FINANCIAL ANALYSTS TREAT THEM?
In a period of negative short-term interest rates, such as in the Eurozone, Switzerland and Japan since 2015, it is advisable to be particularly vigilant about cash assets generating zero or positive returns, which cannot fail to involve risk taking.
The classification of cash assets or long-term investment assets is important when evaluating the liquidity of a company. From an economic point of view, the analyst will try to understand, first and foremost, whether the asset contributes to operating earnings (and should thus be integrated into capital employed), or if it is a financial investment (whether long or short term). It will then be deducted from net debt.
Section 7.3 CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS
1/ WHAT ARE CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS?
In some cases, it may take more than a year for a company to complete a project. For instance, a group that builds dams or ships may work for several years on a single project.
2/ HOW ARE THEY ACCOUNTED FOR?
Construction contracts are accounted for using the percentage of completion method, which consists of recognising at the end of each financial year the sales and profit/loss anticipated on the project in proportion to the percentage of the work completed at that time. US accounting rules recognise both the percentage of completion method and the completed contract method, where revenue recognition is deferred until completion of the contract.2
3/ HOW SHOULD FINANCIAL ANALYSTS TREAT THEM?
Construction projects in progress are part of the operating working capital. The percentage of completion method results in less volatile profits as they are spread over several fiscal years, even if the completed contract method may seem more prudent. Analysts should be aware of changes in accounting methods for construction contracts (which are not possible under IFRS) as such changes may indicate an attempt to artificially improve the published net income for a given year.
Section 7.4 CONVERTIBLE BONDS AND LOANS
1/ WHAT ARE CONVERTIBLE BONDS AND LOANS?
Convertible bonds are bonds that may be converted at the request of their holders into shares in the issuing company. Conversion is thus initiated by the investor.3 If they are not converted, they are repaid in cash at maturity.
2/ HOW ARE THEY ACCOUNTED FOR?
When they are issued, convertible bonds and loans are allocated between debt and equity accounts4 since they are analysed under IFRS standards as compound financial instruments made up of a straight bond and a call option (see Chapter 24). The present value of the coupons and reimbursement amount discounted at a fair borrowing rate of the firm is accounted for as debt. The remainder is accounted for as equity. In addition, each year the company will account for the interest as it would be paid for a standard bond (part of this amount corresponding to the actual amount paid, the rest being a notional amount).
3/ HOW SHOULD FINANCIAL ANALYSTS TREAT THEM?
The approach we recommend is to examine the conditions governing conversion of the bonds and to make the equity/debt classification based on the results of this analysis. For instance, if the share price already lies well above the conversion price, then the bonds are very likely indeed to be converted, so they should be treated as equity. For valuation purposes, the related interest expense net of tax should be reversed out of the income statement, leading to an increase in net income. The number of shares should also be increased by those to be issued through the conversion of the convertible bonds.
On the other hand, if the share price is below the conversion price, then convertible bonds should be treated as conventional bonds and stay classified as borrowings.
Section 7.5 CURRENCY TRANSLATION ADJUSTMENTS
See Chapter 6.
Section 7.6 DEFERRED TAX ASSETS AND LIABILITIES
1/ WHAT ARE DEFERRED TAX ASSETS AND LIABILITIES?
Deferred taxation giving rise to deferred tax assets or liabilities stems from differences between the taxable and book values of assets and liabilities.
On the income statement, certain revenues and charges are recognised in different periods for the purpose of calculating pre-tax accounting profit and taxable profit.
In some cases, the difference may be temporary due to the method used to derive taxable profit from pre-tax accounting profit. For instance, a cost has been recognised in the accounts, but is not yet deductible for tax purposes (e.g. employee profit-sharing in some countries), or vice versa. The same may apply to certain types of revenue. Such differences are known as timing differences.
In other circumstances, the differences may be definitive, i.e. for revenue or charges that will never be taken into account in the computation of taxable profit (e.g. tax penalties or fines that are not deductible for tax purposes). Consequently, there is no deferred tax recognition.
On the balance sheet, the historical cost of an asset or liability may not be the same as its tax base, which creates a temporary difference. Depending on the situation, temporary differences may give rise to a future tax charge and thus deferred tax liabilities, while others may lead to future tax deductions and thus deferred tax assets. For instance, deferred tax liabilities may arise from:
- assets with a tax base that is lower than their book value when sold or used. The most common example of this derives from the revaluation of assets upon the first-time consolidation of a subsidiary. Their value on the consolidated balance sheet is generally higher than their tax base used to calculate tax-deductible depreciation and amortisation or capital gains and losses;
- capitalised costs that are deductible immediately for tax purposes, but that are accounted for on the income statement over several years or deferred;
- revenues, the taxation of which is deferred, such as accrued financial income that becomes taxable only once it has been actually received.
Deferred tax assets may arise in various situations including costs that are expensed in the accounts but are deductible for tax purposes in later years only, such as:
- provisions that are deductible only when the stated risk or liability materialises (for retirement indemnities in certain countries);
- certain tax losses that may be offset against tax expense in the future (i.e. tax-loss carryforwards, long-term capital losses).
Finally, if the company were to take certain decisions, it would have to pay additional tax. These taxes represent contingent tax liabilities, e.g. stemming from the distribution of reserves on which tax has not been paid at the standard rate.
2/ HOW ARE THEY ACCOUNTED FOR?
It is mandatory for companies to recognise all their deferred tax liabilities in consolidated accounts. Deferred tax assets arising from tax losses should be recognised when it is probable that the deferred tax asset can be used to reduce tax to be paid.
Deferred tax liabilities are not recognised on goodwill where goodwill depreciation is not deductible for tax purposes, as is the case in the UK, Italy or France. Likewise, they are not recorded in respect of tax payable by the consolidating company on distributions (e.g. dividend withholding tax) since they are taken directly to shareholders’ equity.
In some more unusual circumstances, the temporary\ePubPageBreak?> difference relates to a transaction that directly affects shareholders’ equity (e.g. a change in accounting method), in which case the temporary difference will also be set off against the company’s shareholders’ equity.
IFRS does not permit the discounting of deferred tax assets and liabilities to net present value.
Deferred tax is not the same as contingent taxation, which reflects the tax payable by the company if it takes certain decisions. As examples one may think about tax charges payable if certain reserves are distributed (i.e. dividend withholding tax), or if assets are sold and a capital gain is registered, etc. The principle governing contingent taxation is straightforward: it is not recorded on the balance sheet and no charge appears on the income statement.
3/ HOW SHOULD FINANCIAL ANALYSTS TREAT THEM?
(a) The simple case of losses
A group makes a pre-tax book and tax loss of 100. From a tax point of view, the tax due is zero. From an accounting point of view, and if there is reason to believe that the company is likely to make profits in the future that will enable it to use this tax-loss carryforward, then the loss will be reduced by a tax credit of 25.5 Accordingly, the after-tax loss will be booked at 75. In order to balance the books, a tax credit carryforward of 25 will be recognised in the balance sheet on the assets side.
The following year, if our group makes an accounting and taxable profit of 100, it will not pay any tax, as the tax-loss carryforward created that year will be set off against the tax due. From an accounting point of view, we’ll recognise a theoretical tax expense of 25 and reduce the deferred tax recognised previously in the balance sheet to 0.
This example clearly shows that the deferred tax credit was created by reducing the amount of the net accounting loss and thus increasing equity by the same amount. From a financial point of view, it is only of value if future operations are able to generate enough profits. But under no circumstances can it be considered as an ordinary asset that could be sold for cash. And it is most certainly not an element of working capital as it does not result from the time lapse between the billing date and the payment date. We’ll consider it as a fixed asset. At worst, it could be reversed against shareholders’ equity, if there are serious doubts about the company’s future ability to make profits.
(b) The case of provisions that are not immediately tax-deductible
In some countries, provisions for retirement benefits, restructuring and environmental risks are not tax-deductible when they are recognised. They are only tax-deductible when the related expense is paid. The accounting rule for consolidated accounts is different because allocations to these provisions are treated as tax-deductible when they are recognised. This is what results in the gap between real flows and the accounting treatment.
Let’s consider a group that is making pre-tax profits of 100 per year. This year, it must allocate 100 to a reserve to cover a risk that may materialise in three years. From a tax point of view, the net result is 756 as the reserve is not tax-deductible and the tax recognised is 25. From an accounting point of view, as the reserve of 100 is a cost, the net result is 0. The tax effectively paid (25) appears on the income statement but is neutralised by a deferred tax income of 25, which, in order to balance the books, is also recorded on the assets side of the balance sheet. Finally, the net tax recorded on the income statement is 0.
In three years, all other things being equal, the net tax result is 0 since the cost is tax-deductible and the tax effectively paid that year is thus 0. From an accounting point of view, the written-back provision cancels out the expense, so the pre-tax result is 100 − 100 (cost) + 100 (provision written back) = 100. The tax recognised by accountants is 25, which is split into 0 tax paid and 25 recognised through deduction from the deferred tax credit recognised in the balance sheet three years ago, which is thus used up.
The deferred tax credit carried on the balance sheet for three years has a cross-entry under equity capital that is higher by 25. This is tax that has already been paid but from an accounting point of view is considered as a future expense. Unlike inventories of raw materials, which have been paid for and which are also a future expense, deferred tax has no monetary value.
The financial treatment we advocate is simple: it is cancelled from assets and deducted from the provision under liabilities (so that it appears after tax) or from equity to reverse the initial entry.
(c) Revaluing assets
Revaluing an asset when it is first consolidated or subsequently (when tested for impairment)7 has two consequences:
- The taxable capital gains if the asset is sold will be different from the book value of the capital gains recorded in the consolidated financial statements.
- The basis for depreciation will be different, and will thus generate deferred taxes.
A group acquires a new subsidiary that has land recorded on its balance sheet at its initial acquisition value of 100. This land is revalued in the consolidated financial statements at 150.
We will then book a deferred tax liability of (150 − 100) × 25% = 12.5 in the consolidated financial statements. What is this liability from an economic point of view? It is the difference that will be booked in the consolidated financial statements between the tax actually paid on the day when the land is sold at a price of P: (P − 100) × 25% and the tax that will be recognised (P − 150) × 25%. The cross-entry on the balance sheet for this deferred tax is a lesser reduction of goodwill, which is reduced not by 50 but by (50 – 12.5).
Is this a debt owed to the tax administration? Clearly not, since the land would have to be sold for a tax liability to appear and then for an amount of (P − 100) × 25% and probably not 12.5! How do we advise our readers to treat this deferred tax liability? Deduct it from goodwill.
So, what of the case of the asset that has been revalued but that is depreciable? There is an initial recognition of the deferred tax liability being gradually reduced over the duration of the residual life of the asset by deferred tax credits due to the difference between a tax depreciation calculated on the basis of 100 and book depreciation calculated on the basis of 150.
Section 7.7 DILUTION PROFIT AND LOSSES
1/ WHAT ARE DILUTION PROFIT AND LOSSES?
Where a parent company does not subscribe either at all or only partially to a capital increase by one of its subsidiaries that takes place at a value above the subsidiary’s book value, the parent company records a dilution profit.
Likewise, if the valuation of the subsidiary for the purpose of the capital increase is less than its book value, the parent company records a dilution loss.
2/ HOW ARE THEY ACCOUNTED FOR?
For instance, let us consider the case of a parent company that has paid 200 for a 50% shareholding in a subsidiary with shareholders’ equity of 100. A capital increase of 80 then takes place, valuing the subsidiary at a total of 400. Since the parent company does not take up its allocation, its shareholding is diluted from 50% to 41.67%.
The parent company’s share of the subsidiary’s equity increases from 50% × 100 = 50 to 41.67% × (100 + 80) = 75, which generates a non-recurrent gain of 75 − 50 = 25. This profit of 25 corresponds exactly to the profit that the parent company would have made by selling an interest of 50% − 41.67% = 8.33% based on a valuation of 400 and a cost price of 100 for 100%, since 25 = 8.33% × (400 − 100).
3/ HOW SHOULD FINANCIAL ANALYSTS TREAT THEM?
Dilution gains and losses generate an accounting profit, whereas the parent company has not received any cash payments. They are, by their very nature, non-recurring. Otherwise, the group would soon not have any subsidiaries left. Naturally, they do not form part of a company’s normal earnings power and so they should be totally disregarded.
Section 7.8 FINANCIAL HEDGING INSTRUMENTS
1/ WHAT ARE FINANCIAL HEDGING INSTRUMENTS?
Their purpose is to hedge against a financial risk linked to a variation in exchange rates, interest rates, raw materials prices, etc. (see Chapter 51). This may arise out of a commercial operation (receivable in foreign currency, for example, or a financial operation – such as a debt at a variable rate). They rely on derivatives such as options, futures, swaps, etc. (see Chapter 51).
2/ HOW ARE THEY ACCOUNTED FOR?
Accounting for financial hedging instruments made up of derivatives (options, futures, swaps, etc.) is very complicated.
Oversimplifying it, the basic principle is that financial hedging instruments must be booked on the balance sheet at their fair value (which is generally their market value) and changes in value must be booked as income or expense in the P&L.
Nevertheless, if financial products are acquired to hedge against a specific risk, then a system known as hedge accounting can be put in place in a proportion for which the company is able to prove (and document) that the hedge is adjusted (amount, duration) to the underlying amount. The remainder will not qualify for hedge accounting and variations in value will appear on the income statement.
IFRS distinguishes between two types of hedge:
- fair value hedge, and
- cash flow hedge.
The difference between the two is not always that clear. For example, hedging against a foreign exchange risk of a receivable in dollars could be considered to be a fair value hedge since it is used to secure the value of this receivable or as a cash flow hedge guaranteeing the counter value of the effective payment by the client.
(a) Fair value hedges
On principle, receivables and debts are booked at their historic cost (amortised cost) while financial instruments are booked at their fair value. The application of these principles could lead to an absurd situation. Let’s take, for example, a company that hedges a fixed-rate debt with a swap. If the company closes its financial year before the debt matures, the change in the value of the debt has no impact on the income statement, while the change in the value of the swap does impact the income statement. This is so even though both can set each other off!
In order to remedy this problem, IFRS recommends booking the changes in value of a receivable or a debt hedged by a financial instrument on the income statement. In this way, the gains or losses on the underlying asset are set off by the losses or gains on the hedging instrument. And there is no impact on the result.
(b) Cash flow hedges
Let’s take the example of a chocolate producer that hedges the future price of cocoa with a forward purchase. The company closes its financial year after putting the hedging in place but before the actual purchase of the cocoa. If the price of cocoa has fallen since the hedging was put in place, then the principle of fair value applied to financial instruments holds that the company should book a loss in terms of the change in the value of the forward contract. This isn’t logical as this loss only exists because the company wanted to be sure that the price at which it was to purchase its cocoa was fixed in advance so as to eliminate its risk.
The change in value of the financial hedging instrument is booked on the asset side and under equity (under “other comprehensive income”) without a loss or a gain being recorded on the income statement. Gains and losses on the hedging instrument only appear when underlying flows effectively take place, i.e. at the time of the effective purchase of the cocoa in our example. Our producer will then record a total expense (purchase price of cocoa lower than forecast and loss on the forward contract), which will reflect the price fixed in advance in its hedging contract.
3/ HOW SHOULD FINANCIAL ANALYSTS TREAT THEM?
Before all else, financial managers must try to check that the financial instruments are not linked to speculative transactions (and this independently of the accounting option that was possible). They should also try to divide hedging operations into commercial operations and financial operations.
Accordingly, it would be logical to integrate into EBIT the changes in the value of financial instruments if these were contracted to hedge operating receivables or debts. The balance of assets/liabilities of financial instruments must then be included in capital employed (generally under working capital).
If the financial instruments are hedging placements or financial debts, then they should be attached to net debt (on the balance sheet) and the change in their value to the income statement.
Section 7.9 IMPAIRMENT LOSSES
1/ WHAT ARE IMPAIRMENT LOSSES?
Impairment losses are set aside to cover capital losses, or those that may be reasonably anticipated, on assets. They can be incurred on goodwill, other intangible assets8 and tangible assets.
2/ HOW ARE THEY ACCOUNTED FOR?
Impairment losses are computed based on the value of cash generating units (CGUs).9 The firm needs to define a maximum number of largely independent CGUs and allocate assets for each one. Each year, the recoverable value of the CGU is computed if there is an indication that there might be a decrease in value or if it includes goodwill. If the recoverable value of the CGU is lower than the carrying amount, then an impairment loss needs to be recognised. Impairment is first allocated to goodwill (if any) and then among the other assets.
The recoverable value is defined as the highest of:
- the value in use, i.e. the present value of the cash flows expected to be realised from the asset;
- the net selling price, i.e. the amount obtainable from the sale of an asset in an arm’s-length transaction10 less the costs of disposal.
If the value of the CGU increases again, then the impairment can be reversed on all assets but goodwill.
3/ HOW SHOULD FINANCIAL ANALYSTS TREAT THEM?
Impairment losses are netted off directly against assets, and provided that these losses are justified, there is no need for any restatements. Conversely, we regard impairment losses on tangible assets as non-recurring items. As discussed on page 81, we consider impairment losses on intangible fixed assets (including goodwill) as non-operating items to be excluded from EBITDA and EBIT.11
Section 7.10 INTANGIBLE FIXED ASSETS
Under IFRS, these primarily encompass capitalised development costs, patents, licences, concessions and similar rights, leasehold rights, brands, software and goodwill arising on acquisitions (see Chapter 6).
This line item requires special attention since companies have some degree of latitude in treating these items that now represent a significant portion of companies’ balance sheets.
Under IFRS, a company is required to recognise an intangible asset (at cost) if and only if:
- it is probable that the future economic benefits that are attributable to the asset will flow to the company; and if
- the cost of the asset can be reliably measured.
Internally generated goodwill, brands, mastheads, publishing titles and customer lists should not be recognised as intangible assets. Internally generated goodwill is expensed as incurred. Costs of starting up a business, of training, of advertising, of relocating or reorganising a company receive the same treatment.
1/ START-UP COSTS
(a) What are start-up costs?
Start-up costs are costs incurred in relation to the creation and the development of a company, such as incorporation, customer canvassing and advertising costs incurred when the business first starts operating, together with capital increases, merger and conversion fees.
(b) How are they accounted for?
Start-up costs are to be expensed as incurred under IFRS and US GAAP.
(c) How should financial analysts treat them?
It is easy to analyse such costs from a financial perspective. They have no value and should thus be deducted from the company’s shareholders’ equity.
2/ RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT COSTS
(a) What are research and development costs?
These costs are those incurred by a company on research and development for its own benefit.
(b) How are they accounted for?
Under IFRS, research costs are expensed as incurred in line with the conservatism principle governing the unpredictable nature of such activities.
Development costs should be capitalised on the balance sheet if the following conditions are met:
- the project or product is clearly identifiable and its costs measurable;
- the product’s feasibility can be demonstrated;
- the company intends to produce, market or use the product or project;
- the existence of a market for the project or product can be demonstrated;
- the utility of the product for the company, where it is intended for internal use, can be demonstrated;
- the company has or will have the resources to see the project through to completion and use or market the end product.
Under US GAAP, research and development costs generally cannot be capitalised (except specific web developments).
(c) How should financial analysts treat them?
We recommend leaving development costs in intangible fixed assets, while monitoring closely any increases in this category, since those could represent an attempt to hide losses.
3/ BRANDS AND MARKET SHARE
(a) What are brands and market share?
These are brands or market share purchased from third parties and valued, when allowed, upon their first-time consolidation by their new parent company.
(b) How are they accounted for?
Brands are not valued in the accounts unless they have been acquired. This gives rise to an accounting deficiency, which is especially critical in the mass consumer (e.g. food, textiles, automotive sectors) and luxury goods industries, particularly from a valuation standpoint. Brands have considerable value, so it makes no sense whatsoever not to take them into account in a company valuation. As we saw in Chapter 6, the allocation of goodwill on first-time consolidation to brands and market share leads to an accumulation of such assets on groups’ balance sheets. For instance, LVMH carries brands for €16bn on its balance sheet, which thus account for 36% of its capital employed. Since the amortisation of brands is not tax-deductible in most countries, it has become common practice not to amortise such assets so that they have an indefinite life. Brands are, at most, written down where appropriate.
Under IFRS, market share cannot be carried on the balance sheet and neither can training or advertising expenses, which are consequently part of goodwill but not individually identified as such.
Intangible assets with finite lives are amortised over their useful life. Intangible assets with indefinite lives undergo an impairment test each year to verify that their net book value is consistent with the recoverable value of the corresponding assets (see Section 7.9).
US rules are very similar to the IASB’s.
(c) How should financial analysts treat them?
These items usually add considerably to a company’s valuation, even though they may be intangible. For instance, what value would a top fashion house or a consumer goods company have without its brands?
That said, the value of brands, goodwill and shareholdings recorded on the balance sheet will be questionable if the company’s profitability is low because their economic rationale is precisely to provide additional profitability.
4/ CONCLUSION
To sum up, our approach to intangible fixed items is as follows: the higher the book value of intangibles, the lower their market value is likely to be; and the lower their book value, the more valuable they are likely to be. This situation is attributable to the accounting and financial policy of a profitable company that seeks to minimise its tax expense as much as possible by expensing every possible cost. Conversely, an ailing company or one that has made a very large acquisition may seek to maximise its intangible assets in order to keep its net profit and shareholders’ equity in positive territory.
Section 7.11 INVENTORIES
1/ WHAT ARE INVENTORIES?
Inventories include items used as part of the company’s operating cycle. More specifically, they are:
- used up in the production process (inventories of raw materials);
- sold as they are (inventories of finished goods or goods for resale) or sold at the end of a transformation process that is either under way or will take place in the future (work in progress).
2/ HOW ARE THEY ACCOUNTED FOR?
(a) Costs that should be included in inventories
The way inventories are valued varies according to their nature: supplies of raw materials and goods for resale or finished products and work in progress. Supplies are valued at acquisition cost, including the purchase price before taxes, customs duties and costs related to the purchase and the delivery. Finished products and work in progress are valued at production cost, which includes the acquisition cost of raw materials used, direct and indirect production costs insofar as the latter may reasonably be allocated to the production of an item.
Costs must be calculated based on normal levels of activity, since allocating the costs of below-par business levels would be equivalent to deferring losses to future periods and artificially inflating profit for the current year. In practice, this calculation is not always properly performed, so we would advise readers to closely follow the cost allocation.
Financial charges, development costs and general and administrative costs are not usually included in the valuation of inventories unless specific operating conditions justify such a decision. IFRS requires interim interest payments12 to be included in the cost of inventories; US GAAP allows interim interest payments to be included in inventories in certain cases.
(b) Valuation methods
Under IFRS, there are three main methods for valuing inventories:
- the weighted average cost method;
- the FIFO (first in, first out) method;
- the identified purchase cost method.
Weighted average cost consists of valuing items withdrawn from the inventory at their weighted average cost, which is equal to the total purchase cost divided by quantities purchased.
The FIFO method values inventory withdrawals at the cost of the item that has been held in inventory for the longest.
The identified purchase cost is used for non-interchangeable items and goods or services produced and assigned to specific projects.
For items that are interchangeable, the IASB allows the weighted average cost and FIFO methods, but no longer accepts the LIFO method (last in, first out) that values inventory withdrawals at the cost of the most recent addition to the inventory. US GAAP permits all methods (including LIFO) but the identified purchase cost method.
During periods of inflation, the FIFO method enables a company to post a higher profit than under the LIFO method. The FIFO method values items withdrawn from the inventory at the purchase cost of the items that were held for longest and thus at the lowest cost, hence giving a higher net income. The LIFO method produces a smaller net income as it values items withdrawn from the inventory at the most recent, and thus the highest, purchase cost. The net income figure generated by the weighted average cost method lies midway between these two figures.
Analysts need to be particularly careful when a company changes its inventory valuation method. These changes, which must be disclosed and justified in the notes to the accounts, make it harder to carry out comparisons between periods and may artificially inflate net profit or help to curb a loss.
Finally, where the market value of an inventory item is less than its calculated carrying amount, the company is obliged to recognise an impairment loss for the difference (i.e. an impairment loss on current assets).
3/ HOW SHOULD FINANCIAL ANALYSTS TREAT THEM?
Firstly, let us reiterate the importance of inventories from a financial standpoint. Inventories are assets booked by recognising deferred costs, hence excluded from the income statement. Assuming quantities remain unchanged, the higher the carrying amount of inventories, the lower future profits will be. Put more precisely, assuming inventory volumes remain constant in real terms, valuation methods do not affect net profit for a given period. But, depending on the method used, inventory receives a higher or lower valuation, making shareholders’ equity simply higher or lower accordingly.
Hence the reluctance of certain companies to scale down their production even when demand contracts. Finally, we note that, tax-related effects apart, inventory valuation methods have no impact on a company’s cash position.
From a financial standpoint, it is true to say that the higher the level of inventories, the greater the vulnerability and uncertainty affecting net income for the given period. We recommend adopting a cash-oriented approach if, in addition, there is no market serving as a point of reference for valuing inventories, such as in the building and public infrastructure sectors, for instance. In such circumstances, cash generated by operating activities is a much more reliable indicator than net income, which is much too heavily influenced by the application of inventory valuation methods.
Consequently, during inflationary periods, inventories carry unrealised capital gains that are larger when inventories are moving more slowly. In the accounts, these gains will appear only as these inventories are being sold, even though these gains are there already. When prices are falling, inventories carry real losses that will appear only gradually in the accounts, unless the company writes down inventories, as was done by ArcelorMittal in 2015, 2019 and 2020, for example.
The only financial approach that makes sense would be to work on a replacement cost basis and thus to recognise gains and losses incurred on inventories each year. In some sectors of activity where inventories move very slowly, this approach seems particularly important. In the early 2010s Italian banks carried loans on their books for amounts that were well above their value. We firmly believe that had loans been written down to their market value, the ensuing crisis in the sector would have been less severe. The Italian banks would have recognised losses in one year and then posted decent profits the next, instead of resorting to all kinds of creative solutions to spread losses over several years, earning them the reputation of a perpetually sick man.
Section 7.12 LEASES
1/ WHAT ARE LEASES?
One must distinguish between operating leases allowing a company to use some of its operating fixed assets (i.e. buildings, plant and other fixed assets) under a rental system, and finance or capital leases allowing the company to purchase the asset at the end of the rental contract for a predetermined and usually very low amount (see page 377).
Finance leases raise two relatively complicated problems for external financial analysts:
- Firstly, leases are used by companies to finance the assets. Even if those items may not appear on the balance sheet, they may represent a considerable part of a company’s assets.
- Secondly, they represent a commitment, the extent of which varies depending on the type of contract:
- equipment leasing may be treated as similar to debt depending on the length of the period during which the agreement may not be terminated;
- real-estate leasing for buildings may not be treated as actual debt in view of the termination clause contained in the contract. Nonetheless, the utility of the leased property usually leads the company to see out the initially determined length of the lease, and the termination of the lease may then be treated as the early repayment of a borrowing (financed by the sale of the relevant asset).
2/ HOW ARE THEY ACCOUNTED FOR?
A lease is either a finance lease13 or an operating lease.
The distinction between operating or financial leases depends on whether or not a purchase option exists, on the length of the contract (greater than or equal to 75% of the life of the asset) and the present value of the rents in relation to the value of the asset (greater than or equal to 90% of the value).
Under IFRS, and since the application of IRFS 16 beginning in 2019, companies no longer distinguish between financial and operating leases. All leases must be recognised as tangible fixed assets on their balance sheets, whenever the length of the contract is longer than one year, is for an asset worth more than €5,000, where the rent is not indexed to a variable indicator of the company such as sales made in the rented property (store, cinema), and in instances where the contract cannot be considered as a service, for example renting 1,000 sq. m of storage space in a hangar, without knowing the precise area in the hangar for the products.
To determine the value to be recorded as a right of use in the balance sheet, one must discount the expected rents over the probable duration of the lease. The discount rate is either the implicit interest rate contained within the (financial) lease or the marginal interest rate at which the company could incur debt to finance the acquisition of the operating asset. The asset is then depreciated on a straight-line basis over the life of the lease. As a counterparty to this new asset, the company records a new financial debt in its liabilities. This debt is reduced each year by an amount corresponding to the rent paid less financial expenses calculated, using the aforementioned interest rate. In the first few years, the rental debt is therefore higher than the value of the rental asset.
In the income statement, the rental expense is removed from other external expenses. Two items appear: financial expenses, generated by the rental debt sitting on the balance sheet at the given interest rate, and a depreciation expense stemming from usage rights and amortised over the length retained for the rental contract. The sum of these two expenses is frequently different to that of the rent paid, exceeding it at the beginning of the contract, and below it at the end of the contract. Initially, it would appear as if the EBITDA is inflated by the amount of the rent, and the operating result by the amount of the financial expenses. We will come back to this shortly.
In the cash flow statement, operating cash flow increases by the amount of the depreciation expense on the leased assets. Here, we allow readers to stop and pinch themselves. No, they are not dreaming: a change in accounting rules, which does not physically change cash flows, nevertheless changes the operating cash flows in the IFRS cash flow statements!
As the IASB is unfortunately unable to make cash magically appear in cash registers, the final reconciliation is done in the financing cash flows with a pseudo cash outflow created due to the reduction in rental debts.
Under US accounting standards, a usage right is recorded in the balance sheet under fixed assets with a corresponding financial lease liability. But under a widespread consensus, American groups identify operating lease rents in the income and cash flow statements as an operating expense and will continue to treat financial leases as financial leases. The decrease in the value of usage rights is carried out on the balance sheet by a parallel reduction in the rental debt.
Therefore, it is no longer possible to compare EBITDA or operating margins between US groups and groups operating under IFRS.
3/ HOW SHOULD FINANCIAL ANALYSTS TREAT THEM?
The reader should beware of a company with large operating leases. They add fixed costs to its income statement and raise its breakeven point.
As finance leases are a real debt, it is logical to capitalise the assets financed in this way in the balance sheet and to add the value of rental commitments made to financial debts. When this is not done in the financial statements, they should be restated in this way using the information provided in the notes.
On the other hand, since operating leases do not correspond, with a few exceptions, to a real debt, the new IFRS (and American) accounting standards do not seem, to us, to provide a fair view of the company’s situation. Ideally, the analyst should revert to a distinction between operating leases (not treated as debt) and financial leases (treated as debt) by reversing the effects of IFRS 16 on the financial statements.14
Section 7.13 OFF-BALANCE-SHEET COMMITMENTS
1/ WHAT ARE OFF-BALANCE-SHEET COMMITMENTS?
The balance sheet shows all the items resulting from transactions that were realised. But it is hard to show in company accounts transactions that have not yet been realised, commitments that have been made but will not necessarily come into effect (e.g. the remaining payments due under an operating lease, orders placed but not yet recorded or paid for because the goods have not yet been delivered, deposits). However, such items may have a significant impact on a company’s financial position.
2/ HOW ARE THEY ACCOUNTED FOR?
These commitments may have:
- a positive impact – they are not recorded on the balance sheet, but are stated in the notes to the accounts, hence the term “off-balance-sheet”. These are known as contingent assets; or
- a negative impact – they cause a provision to be set aside if they are likely to be realised, or they give rise to a note to the accounts if they remain a possibility only. These are called contingent liabilities.
3/ HOW SHOULD FINANCIAL ANALYSTS TREAT THEM?
Analysts should always be concerned that a company may show some items as off-balance-sheet entries while they should actually appear on the balance sheet. It is therefore very important to analyse off-balance-sheet items because they reflect:
- the degree of accounting ingenuity used by the company; this judgement provides the basis for an opinion about the quality of the published accounts;
- the impending arrival on the balance sheet of the effects of the commitments (e.g. purchases of fixed assets or purchase commitments that will have to be financed with debt, guarantees given to a failed third party that will lead to losses and payments with nothing received in return).
The key points to watch are as follows:
Section 7.14 PENSIONS AND OTHER EMPLOYEE BENEFITS
1/ WHAT ARE PROVISIONS FOR EMPLOYEE BENEFITS AND PENSIONS?
Pension and related commitments include severance payments, early retirement and related payments, special retirement plans, top-up plans providing guaranteed resources and healthcare benefits, life insurance and similar entitlements that, in some cases, are granted under employment contracts and collective labour agreements.
A distinction is made between:
- defined benefit plans, where the employer commits to the amount or guarantees the level of benefits defined by the agreement. This is a commitment to a certain level of performance, usually according to the final salary and length of service of the retiring employee. These plans may be managed internally or externally;
- defined contribution plans, where the employer commits to making regular payments to an external organisation. Those payments are paid back to employees when they retire in the form of pensions together with the corresponding investment revenue. The size of the pension payments depends on the investment performance of the external organisation managing the plan. The employer does not guarantee the level of the pension paid (a resource-related obligation). This applies to most national social security systems.
2/ HOW ARE THEY ACCOUNTED FOR?
Defined contribution plans are fairly simple to account for as contributions to these plans are expensed each year as they are incurred.
Defined benefit plans require account holders to disclose detailed and specific information. A defined benefit plan gives rise to a liability corresponding to the actuarial present value of all the pension payments due at the balance sheet closing date (defined benefit obligation or, in US GAAP, projected benefit obligation – PBO).
In countries where independent pension funds handle the company’s commitments to its workforce, the market value of the pension fund’s assets is set off against the actuarial value of the liability, and the difference, if any, normally gives rise to a pension provision. The method used to assess the actuarial value is the projected unit credit method, which models the benefits vested with the entire workforce of the company at the assessment date. It is based on certain demographics, staff turnover and other assumptions (resignations, redundancies, mortality rates, etc.). The discount rate used is the yield on high-grade corporate bonds, in practice those rated AA.
Consequently, the net pension costs in the income statement for a given year are mainly composed of:
- a service cost, which represents the present value of benefits earned by employees during the year;
- an interest cost, which represents the increase in the present value of the pensions payments due at the balance sheet closing date since the previous year due to the passage of time – this is generally recognised in financial expense;
- a theoretical return on assets, computed using the discount rate used to compute the present value of pension payments due15;
- other non-recurring items.
In a move that has broadened the debate, the IASB have stipulated that all benefits payable to employees (i.e. retirement savings, pensions, insurance and healthcare cover and severance payments) should be accounted for. These standards state in detail how the employee liabilities deriving from these benefits should be calculated. US accounting standards also provide for the inclusion of retirement benefits and commitments other than just pension obligations, i.e. mainly the reimbursement of medical costs by companies during the active service life of employees.
3/ HOW SHOULD FINANCIAL ANALYSTS TREAT THEM?
How, therefore, should we treat provisions for employees’ benefits and pensions that may, in some cases, reach very high levels, as is often the case with German companies?
Our view is that provisions for retirement benefit plans are very similar to a financial liability vis-à-vis employees. This liability is adjusted each year to reflect the actuarial (and automatic) increase in employees’ accrued benefits, just like a zero-coupon bond,16 where the company recognises an annual financial charge that is not paid until the bond is redeemed.
Consequently, we suggest treating such provisions as financial debt. When the pension provision does not cover 100% of the deficit between pension commitments and assets held to cover these commitments, the pension provision must be topped up until it is equal to this debt, which would then decrease the shareholders’ equity by an equal amount. The result of the past situation is thus taken into account.
In terms of business valuation, future commitments towards its employees will be measured by discounting the annual pension service cost (discounted cash flows) or by applying a multiple (multiples method) to it. This assumes that the differences between interest costs and the theoretical return on pension assets are treated as financial charges. These must be deducted from EBITDA and EBIT and added to financial charges unless the company has already applied this rule in its accounts, as often – but not always – happens.
Section 7.15 PREFERENCE SHARES17
1/ WHAT ARE PREFERENCE SHARES?
Preference shares combine17 characteristics of shares and bonds. They may have a fixed dividend (bonds pay interest), a redemption price (bonds) and a redemption date (bonds). If the company were to be liquidated, then the preference shareholders would be paid a given amount before the common shareholders would have a right to receive any of the proceeds. Sometimes the holders of preference shares may participate in earnings beyond the ordinary dividend rate, or have a cumulative feature allowing their dividends in arrears, if any, to be paid in full before shareholders can get a dividend, and so on.
Most of the time, in exchange for these financial advantages, the preference shares have no voting rights. They are known as actions de préférence in France, Vorzugsaktien in Germany, azioni risparmio in Italy and preferred stock in the US.18
2/ HOW ARE THEY ACCOUNTED FOR?
Under IFRS, preference shares are accounted for either as equity or financial debt, depending on the results of a “substance over form” analysis. If the preference share:
- provides for mandatory redemption by the issuer at a fixed19 date in the future; or
- if the holder has a put option allowing him to sell the preference share back to the issuer in the future; or
- if the preference share pays a fixed dividend regardless of the net income of the company;
then it is financial debt.
Under US GAAP, preference shares are treated as equity.
3/ HOW SHOULD FINANCIAL ANALYSTS TREAT THEM?
Let’s call a spade a spade. If the preference share meets all our criteria for consideration as equity:
- returns linked solely to the company’s earnings;
- no repayment commitment;
- claims on the company ranking last in the event of liquidation
then it is equity. If not, it is a financial debt.
Section 7.16 PROVISIONS
Provisions are set aside in anticipation of a future cost. Additions to provisions reduce net income in the year they are set aside and not in the year the corresponding cost will actually be incurred. Provisions will actually be written back the year the corresponding charge will be incurred, thereby neutralising the impact of recognising the charges in the income statement. Additions to provisions are therefore equivalent to an anticipation of costs.
1/ RESTRUCTURING PROVISIONS
(a) What are restructuring provisions?
Restructuring provisions consist of taking a heavy upfront charge against earnings in a given year to cover a restructuring programme (site closures, redundancies, etc.). The future costs of this restructuring programme are eliminated on the income statement through the gradual write-back of the provision, thereby smoothing future earnings performance.
(b) How are they accounted for?
Restructuring costs represent a liability if they derive from an obligation for a company vis-à-vis third parties or members of its workforce. This liability must arise from a decision by the relevant authority and be confirmed prior to the end of the accounting period by the announcement of this decision to third parties and the affected members of the workforce. The company must not anticipate anything more from those third parties or members of its workforce. Conversely, a relocation leading to profits further ahead in the future should not give rise to such a provision.
(c) How should financial analysts treat them?
The whole crux of the matter boils down to whether restructuring provisions should be recorded under operating or non-operating items: the former are recurrent in nature, unlike the latter. Some groups consider productivity-enhancing restructuring charges as operating items and business shutdowns as non-recurrent items. This may be acceptable when the external analyst is able to verify the breakdown between these two categories. Other companies tend to treat the entire restructuring charge as a non-recurrent item.
Our view is that in today’s world of rapid technological change and endless restructuring in one division or another, restructuring charges are usually structural in nature, which means that they should be charged against operating profit. The situation may be different for SMEs,20 where those charges are more likely to be of a non-operating nature.
On the liability side of the balance sheet, we treat these restructuring provisions as part of the operating working capital (or non-operating working capital for SMEs).
2/ PROVISIONS FOR DECOMMISSIONING OR RESTORATION OF SITES
(a) What are provisions for decommissioning or restoration?
Some industrial groups may have commitments due to environmental constraints to decommission an industrial plant after use (nuclear plant, etc.) or restore the site after use (mine, polluted site, etc.).
(b) How are they accounted for?
In such cases, as these commitments are generally over the very long term, provisions will be booked as the net present value of future commitments.
(c) How should financial analysts treat them?
These provisions should be treated as net debt.
Section 7.17 STOCK OPTIONS
1/ WHAT ARE STOCK OPTIONS?
Stock options are options to buy existing shares or to subscribe to new shares at a fixed price. Their maturity is generally between three and ten years after their issuance. They are granted free of charge to company employees, usually senior executives. Their purpose is to motivate executives to manage the company as efficiently as possible, thereby increasing its value and delivering them a financial gain when they exercise their stock options. As we will see in Chapter 26, they represent one of the ways of aligning the interests of managers with those of shareholders.
2/ HOW ARE THEY ACCOUNTED FOR?
Under IFRS, the issuance of fully vested stock options is presumed to relate to past service, requiring the full amount of the grant-date fair value to be expensed immediately. The issuance of stock options to employees with, say, a four-year vesting period21 is considered to relate to services over the vesting period. Therefore, the fair value of the share-based payment, determined at the grant date, should be expensed on the income statements over the vesting period. The corresponding entry is an increase in equity for the same amount.
Stock options are usually valued using standard option-pricing models,22 with some alterations or discounts to take into account cancellations of stock options during the vesting period (some holders may resign) and conditions which may be attached to their exercise, such as the share price reaching a minimum threshold or outperforming an index.
3/ HOW SHOULD FINANCIAL ANALYSTS TREAT THEM?
Do stock options and free shares make pre-existing shareholders poorer? Yes, because the eventual exercise of stock options and the granting of free shares mean that shares are issued at a lower price than their value at the time. Of course, we could hope that granting them would lead to higher motivation and greater loyalty on the part of the company’s staff, which would at least make up for the dilution. But as much as this may be true, it is very difficult to measure the positive effects, and they may go hand in hand with the pernicious effects they can have on managers who get stock options (e.g. retention of dividends and bias in favour of the riskiest investments and debt, and that doesn’t even include accounting manipulation, which is another story).
Can we say that the company gets poorer by the amount of the stock options granted freely? No, it is the shareholders who potentially get poorer while the recipients of these instruments benefit, not the company, whose assets and debts are still worth what they were.
Conceptually, an accounting charge is an item which increases the amount of a liability due, which reduces the value of an asset or which sooner or later results in cash being paid out. But here, this is not the case. The granting of stock options/free shares does not lead to any flows for the company if they are not exercised, or to new equity if they are. In a nutshell, a charge may lead to bankruptcy since sooner or later it generates a reduction in assets or an increase in debts. Granting stock options, on the other hand, strengthens the solvency of the company (and the granting of free shares certainly does not weaken it). How then can the granting of stock options or free shares be booked as a charge? For us, this just doesn’t make sense.
We recommend, in terms of valuation, deducting the value of stock options from the value of capital employed in order to obtain the value of equity, without modifying the number of shares issued.
Alternatively, we can reason in fully diluted terms, as if all the options granted that are in the money were exercised and the funds collected used to buy back existing shares at their current value (treasury method, described in Section 22.5), or to pay back a part of the debt or increase available cash (funds placement method, described in Section 22.5). The number of shares will obviously be adjusted as a consequence. Options that are out of the money must receive the same treatment after having multiplied their quantity by their delta, which measures the probability that they will end their lives in the money.
Section 7.18 TANGIBLE ASSETS
1/ WHAT ARE TANGIBLE ASSETS?
Tangible assets (or property, plant and equipment)23 comprise land, buildings, technical assets, industrial equipment and tools, other tangible assets and tangible assets in process.
Together with intangible assets, tangible assets form the backbone of a company, namely its industrial and commercial base.
2/ HOW ARE THEY ACCOUNTED FOR?
Tangible assets are booked at acquisition cost and depreciated over time (except for land). IFRS allows them to be revalued at fair value. The fair value option then has to be taken for a whole category of assets (e.g. real estate). This option is not widely used by companies (in particular because the annual measurement of fair values and booking of changes in fair value is complex),24 except:
- on first implementation of IFRS;
- following an acquisition, where it is required for the tangible assets of the purchased company.25
Some tangible assets may be very substantial; they may have increased in value (e.g. a head office, a store, a plant located in an urban centre) and thus become much more valuable than their historical costs suggest. Conversely, some tangible assets have virtually no value outside the company’s operations. Though it may be an exaggeration, we can say that they have no more value than certain start-up costs.
Note that certain companies also include interim financial expense into internally or externally produced fixed assets (provided that this cost is clearly identified). IFRS provides for the possibility of including borrowing costs related to the acquisition cost or the production of fixed assets when it is likely that they will give rise to future economic benefits for the company and that their cost may be assessed reliably. Under US GAAP, these financial costs must be included in the cost of fixed assets.
3/ HOW SHOULD FINANCIAL ANALYSTS TREAT THEM?
The accounting policies applied with respect to fixed assets may have a significant impact on various parameters, including the company’s or group’s net income and apparent solvency level.
For instance, a decision to capitalise a charge when it is allowed and record it as an asset increases net income in the corresponding year, but depresses earnings performance in subsequent periods because it leads to higher depreciation charges.
Accordingly, financial analysts need to take a much closer look at changes in fixed assets rather than fixed assets at a given point in time. The advantage of adjustments is that they are shown at their current value.
Section 7.19 TREASURY SHARES
1/ WHAT ARE TREASURY SHARES?
Treasury shares are shares that a company or its subsidiaries owns in the company itself. We will examine the potential reasons for such a situation in Chapter 37.
2/ HOW ARE THEY ACCOUNTED FOR?
Under IFRS, treasury shares are systematically deducted from shareholders’ equity. If they are sold by the company in the future, the disposal price will directly increase equity, and no capital gain or loss will be recognised in the income statement.
3/ HOW SHOULD FINANCIAL ANALYSTS TREAT THEM?
Whatever their original purpose, we recommend deducting treasury shares from assets and from shareholders’ equity if this has not yet been done by the accountants. From a financial standpoint, we believe that share repurchases are equivalent to a capital reduction, regardless of the legal treatment. Likewise, if the company sells back the shares, we recommend that these sales be analysed as a capital increase.
Treasury shares must thus be subtracted from the number of shares outstanding when calculating earnings per share or computing market capitalisation.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
NOTES
- 1 If the company’s financial year starts as of 1 January.
- 2 The completed contract method consists of recognising the sales and earnings on a project only when the project has been completed or the last batch delivered. Nonetheless, by virtue of the conservatism principle, any losses anticipated are fully provisioned. This method is thus equivalent to recognising only unrealised losses while the project is under way. It may be used in the US where the recommended method is the percentage of completion method.
- 3 See Chapter 24.
- 4 This is known as “split accounting”.
- 5 Assuming a corporation tax rate of 25%.
- 6 Assuming a corporation tax rate of 25%.
- 7 See Chapter 6.
- 8 An intangible asset with indefinite useful life to be precise.
- 9 The CGU, as defined by the IASB, is the smallest identifiable group of assets that generates cash inflows from continuing use, these cash inflows being largely independent of the cash inflows from other assets or groups of assets.
- 10 A transaction done “at arm’s length” designates a transaction where two entities have acted as if they had no pre-existing relations of any kind.
- 11 Earnings before interest and taxes.
- 12 Interest on capital borrowed to finance production.
- 13 Capital lease in the US.
- 14 For more, see the Vernimmen.com Newsletter, 122, 1–4, September 2019.
- 15 The difference between the effective yield and the theoretical one is part of other comprehensive items which do not transit through the profit and loss account.
- 16 See Section 17.4, 1/ (d).
- 17 Also called preferred shares.
- 18 For more details about preference shares, see Section 24.3.
- 19 Or determinable.
- 20 Small and medium-sized enterprises.
- 21 Which means that stock options cannot be exercised for at least four years.
- 22 For more, see Section 23.5.
- 23 Known as PPE.
- 24 For tangible assets (except investment property), an increase in the value of the asset will directly impact on equity (except if it reverses a previous loss) and a loss will be accounted through the income statement.
- 25 See Section 6.2, 2/ (b).
****PART TWO. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING
In this section, we will gradually introduce more aspects of financial analysis, including how to analyse wealth creation, investments (either in working capital or capital expenditure), their financing and profitability. But first we need to look at how to carry out an economic and strategic analysis of a company.
Chapter 8. HOW TO PERFORM A FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
Opening up the toolbox
Before embarking on an examination of a company’s accounts, readers should take the time to:
- carry out a strategic and economic assessment, paying particular attention to the characteristics of the sector in which the company operates, the quality of its positions and how well its production model, distribution network and ownership structure fit with its business strategy, as well as its environmental, social and governance policies (ESG, see Chapter 1);
- carefully read and critically analyse the auditors’ report and the accounting rules and principles adopted by the company when preparing its accounts. These documents describe how the company’s economic and financial situation is translated by means of a code (i.e. accounting) into tables of figures (accounts).
Since the aim of financial analysis is to portray a company’s economic reality by going beyond just the figures, it is vital to think about what this reality is and how well it is reflected by the figures before embarking on an analysis of the accounts. Otherwise, the resulting analysis may be sterile, overly descriptive and contain very little insight. It would not identify problems until they have shown up in the numbers, i.e. after they have occurred and when it is too late for investors to sell their shares or reduce their credit exposure.
Once this preliminary task has been completed, readers can embark on the standard course of financial analysis that we suggest and use more sophisticated tools, such as credit scoring and ratings.
But first and foremost, we need to deal with the issue of what financial analysis actually is.
Section 8.1 WHAT IS FINANCIAL ANALYSIS?
1/ WHAT IS FINANCIAL ANALYSIS FOR?
Financial analysis is a tool used by existing and potential shareholders of a company, as well as lenders or rating agencies. For shareholders, financial analysis assesses whether the company is able to create value. It usually involves an analysis of the value of the share and ends with the formulation of a buy or a sell recommendation on the share. For lenders, financial analysis assesses the solvency and liquidity of a company, i.e. normally leads to an understanding of its ability to honour its commitments and repay its debts on time.
We should emphasise, however, that there are not two different sets of processes depending on whether an assessment is being carried out for shareholders or lenders. Even though the purposes are different, the techniques used are the same for the very simple reason that a value-creating company will be solvent and a value-destroying company will, sooner or later, face solvency problems. Both lenders and shareholders look very carefully at a company’s cash flow statement because it shows the company’s ability to repay debts to lenders and to generate free cash flows, the key value driver for shareholders.
2/ FINANCIAL ANALYSIS IS MORE PRACTICE THAN THEORY, MORE ART THAN SCIENCE
The purpose of financial analysis, which primarily involves dealing with economic and accounting data, is to provide insight into the reality of a company’s situation on the basis of figures. Naturally, knowledge of an economic sector and a company and, more simply, common sense may easily replace some financial analysis techniques. Very precise conclusions may be made without sophisticated analytical techniques.
Financial analysis should be regarded as a rigorous approach to the issues faced by a business that helps rationalise the study of economic and accounting data.
Financial analysts are heavily dependent on accounting figures which do not systematically give an appropriate view of the economic and financial reality of a company. Consequently, from time to time, they have to adjust some elements of the published accounts to make them more relevant and easier to interpret.
3/ IT REPRESENTS A RESOLUTELY GLOBAL VISION OF THE COMPANY
It is worth noting that although financial analysis carried out internally within a company and externally by an outside observer is based on different information, the logic behind it is the same in both cases. Financial analysis is intended to provide a global assessment of the company’s current and future position. Indeed, an internal or external analysis seeks to study the company primarily from the standpoint of an outsider looking to achieve a comprehensive assessment of abstract data, such as the company’s strategy and its results. Fundamentally, financial analysis is a method that helps to describe the company in broad terms on the basis of a few key points.
An analyst’s effectiveness is not measured by their use of sophisticated techniques but by their ability to uncover evidence of the inaccuracy of the accounting data or of serious problems being concealed. As an example, a company’s earnings power may be maintained artificially through a revaluation or through asset disposals, while the company is experiencing serious cash flow problems. In such circumstances, competent analysts will cast doubt on the company’s earnings power and track down the root cause of the deterioration in profitability.
We frequently see that external analysts are able to piece together the global economic model of a company and place it in the context of its main competitors. By analysing a company’s economic model over the medium term, analysts are able to detect chronic weaknesses and separate them from temporary glitches. For instance, an isolated incident may be attributable to a precise and non-recurring factor, whereas a string of incidents caused by different factors will prompt an external analyst to look for more fundamental problems likely to affect the company as a whole.
Naturally, it is impossible to appreciate the finer points of financial analysis without grasping the fact that a set of accounts represents a compromise between different concerns. Let’s consider, for instance, a company that is highly profitable because it has a very efficient operating structure, but also posts a non-recurrent profit. We see a slight deterioration in its operating ratios. In our view, it is important not to make hasty judgements. The company probably attempted to adjust the size of the exceptional gain by being very strict in the way that it accounts for operating revenues and costs.
Section 8.2 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF COMPANIES
An economic analysis of a company does not require cutting-edge expertise in industrial economics or encyclopaedic knowledge of economic sectors. Instead, it entails straightforward reasoning and a good deal of common sense, with an emphasis on:
- analysing the company’s market and its position within its market;
- studying its production model;
- analysing its distribution networks;
- identifying what motivates the company’s key people.
- and, lastly, analysing the company’s ESG policy.
1/ ANALYSIS OF THE COMPANY’S MARKET
Understanding the company’s market generally leads analysts to reach conclusions that are important for the analysis of the company as a whole.
(a) What is a market?
First of all, a market is not an economic sector as statistics institutes, central banks or professional associations would define it. Markets and economic sectors are two completely separate concepts.
What is the market for pay-TV operators such as Netflix, Sky, HBO or Canal+? It is the entertainment market, not just the TV market. Competition comes from cinema multiplexes, DVDs and live sporting events rather than from ITV, RTL TV, CBS or TF1, which mainly sell advertising slots to advertisers seeking to target the legendary housewife below 50 years of age.
So what is a market? A market is defined by consistent behaviour, e.g. a product or service satisfying similar needs, purchased through a similar distribution network by the same customers.
Once a market has been defined, it can then be segmented using geographical (i.e. local, regional, national, worldwide) and sociological (luxury, mid-range, entry-level products) variables. This is also an obvious tactic adopted by companies seeking to gain protection from their rivals. If such a tactic succeeds, a company will create its own market in which it reigns supreme. Nestlé, with its Nespresso machines and capsules, has created something unique which is more than just a product or a service but a combination of both. But before readers get carried away and rush off to create their very own market arenas, it should be remembered that a market always comes under threat sooner or later – think about the BlackBerry and smartphones.
Segmenting markets is never a problem for analysts, but it is vital to get the segmentation right! To say that a manufacturer of running shoes has a 30% share of the German running shoe market may be correct from a statistical standpoint but is totally irrelevant from an economic standpoint, because this is a worldwide market with global brands backed by marketing campaigns featuring international champions. Conversely, a 40% share of the northern Swiss cement market is a meaningful number, because cement is a heavy product with a low unit value that cannot be stored for long and is not usually transported more than 150–200 km from the cement plants.
(b) Market growth
Once a financial analyst has studied and defined a market, the natural reflex is then to attempt to assess the growth opportunities and identify the risk factors. The simplest form of growth is organic volume growth, i.e. selling more and more products or services.
That said, it is worth noting that volume growth is not always as easy as it may sound in developed countries given weak demographic growth (e.g. between −0.5% and +1% p.a. in Europe). Booming markets do exist (Internet of Things), but others are rapidly contracting (coal power plants, magazines) or are cyclical (transportation, paper production).
At the end of the day, in mature countries, the most important type of growth is value growth. Let’s imagine that we sell a product satisfying a basic need, such as bread. Demand does not grow much and, if anything, appears to be declining. So we attempt to move upmarket by means of either marketing or packaging, or by innovating. As a result, we decide to switch from selling bread to providing a whole range of speciality products, such as baguettes, rye bread and farmhouse loaves, and we start charging €1.10 or even €1.30, rather than €0.90 per item. The risk of pursuing this strategy is that our rivals may react by focusing on a narrow range of straightforward, unembellished products that sell for less than ours, e.g. a small shop that bakes pre-prepared dough in its ovens or the in-store bakeries at food superstores.
Once we have analysed the type of growth, we need to attempt to predict its duration, and this is no easy task. The famous 17th-century letter writer Mme de Sévigné once forecast that coffee was just a fad and would not last for more than a week. At the other end of the spectrum, it is not uncommon to hear entrepreneurs claiming that their products will revolutionise consumers’ lifestyles and even outlast the wheel!
Growth drivers in a developed economy are often highly complex. They may include:
- technological advances, new products (e.g. robot vacuum cleaners);
- changes in the economic situation (e.g. expansion of cruises with the rise in living standards);
- changes in consumer lifestyles (e.g. food delivery services);
- changing fashions (e.g. Prosecco);
- demographic trends (e.g. popularity of cruises owing to the ageing of the population);
- environmental considerations (e.g. electric cars, solar power);
- delayed uptake of a product (e.g. mobile banking in Africa where the retail banking network is limited).
In its early days, the market evolves rapidly, as products are still poorly geared to consumers’ needs. During the growth phase, the technological risk has disappeared, the market has become established and expands rapidly, being fairly insensitive to fluctuations in the economy at large. As the market reaches maturity, sales become sensitive to ups and downs in general economic conditions. And as the market ages and goes into decline, price competition increases, and certain market participants fall by the wayside. Those that remain may be able to post very attractive margins, and no more investment is required.
Lastly, readers should note that an expanding sector is not necessarily an attractive sector from a financial standpoint. Where future growth has been over-estimated, supply exceeds demand, even when growth is strong, and all market participants lose money (e.g. the 3D printer industry). Conversely, tobacco, which is one of the most mature markets in existence, generates a very high level of return on capital employed for the last few remaining companies operating in the sector.
(c) Market risk
Market risk varies according to whether the product in question is original equipment or a replacement item. A product sold as original equipment will seem more compelling in the eyes of consumers who do not already possess it. And it is the role of advertising to make sure this is how they feel. Conversely, should consumers already own a product, they will always be tempted to delay replacing it until their conditions improve and thus will spend their limited funds on another new product. Needs come first! Put another way, replacement products are much more sensitive to general economic conditions than original equipment. For instance, sales in the European truck industry beat all existing records in 2007 when the economy was in excellent shape, before plunging due to very poor economic conditions in 2009 (–50%), then recovering slightly in 2011–2014 and more markedly since 2015 and falling back again drastically (–30%) in 2020 and recovering in 2021.
With this in mind, it is vital for an analyst to establish whether a company’s products are acquired as original equipment or as part of a replacement cycle because this directly affects the company’s sensitivity to general economic conditions.
All too often we have heard analysts claim that a particular sector, such as the food industry, does not carry any risk (because we will always need to eat!). These analysts either cannot see the risks or they disregard them. Granted, we will always need to eat and drink, but not necessarily in the same way. For instance, organic food consumption is on the increase, meat consumption is declining and consumption of vegetable proteins is growing fast.
Risk also depends on the nature of barriers to entry to the company’s market and whether or not alternative products exist. Nowadays barriers to entry tend to weaken constantly owing to:
- a powerful worldwide trend towards deregulation (there are fewer and fewer monopolies, e.g. in railways and postal services);
- technological advances (and in particular the Internet, e-commerce marketplaces…);
- a strong trend towards internationalisation.
All these factors have increased the number of potential competitors and made the barriers to entry erected by existing players far less sturdy.
For instance, the five record industry majors – Sony, Bertelsmann, Universal, Warner and EMI – had achieved worldwide domination of their market, with a combined market share of 80%. Nevertheless, they have seen their grip loosened by the development of the Internet (Spotify, Apple Music) and artists’ ability to sell their products directly to consumers through music downloads – not to mention the impact of piracy!
(d) Market share
The position held by a company in its market is reflected by its market share, which indicates the share of business in the market (in volume or value terms) achieved by the company.
A company with substantial market share has the advantages of:
- some degree of loyalty among its customers, who regularly make purchases from the company. As a result, the company reduces the volatility of its business;
- a strong bargaining position vis-à-vis its customers and suppliers. Mass retailers in the UK are a perfect example of this;
- an attractive position, which means that any small producer wishing to put itself up for sale, any inventor of a new product or new technique or any talented new graduate will usually come to see this market leader first, because a company with a large market share is a force to be reckoned with in its market.
That said, just because market share is quantifiable does not mean that the numbers are always relevant. For instance, market share is meaningless in the construction and public works market (and indeed is never calculated). Customers in this sector do not renew their purchases on a regular basis (town halls, swimming pools and roads have a long useful life). Even if they do, contracts are awarded through a bidding process, meaning that there is no special link between customers and suppliers. Likewise, building up market share by slashing prices without being able to hold onto the market share accumulated after prices are raised again is pointless. This inability demonstrates the second limit on the importance of market share: the acquisition of market share must create value, otherwise it serves no purpose.
Lastly, market share is not the same as size. For instance, a large share of a small market is far more valuable than middling sales in a vast market.
(e) The competition
If the market is expanding, it is better to have smaller rivals than several large ones with the financial and marketing clout to cream off all the market’s expansion. Where possible, it is best not to try to compete against the likes of Google. Conversely, if the market has reached maturity, it is better for the few remaining companies that have specialised in particular niches to be faced with large rivals that will not take the risk of attacking them because the potential gains would be too small. Conversely, a stable market with a large number of small rivals frequently degenerates into a price war that drives some players out of business.
But since a company cannot choose its rivals, it is important to understand what drives them. Some rivals may be pursuing power or scale-related targets (e.g. biggest turnover in the industry) that are frequently far from profitability targets. Consequently, it is very hard for groups pursuing profitability targets to grow in such conditions. So how can a company achieve profitability when its main rivals, e.g. farming cooperatives in the canned vegetables sector, are not profit-driven? It is very hard indeed because it will struggle to develop, since it will generate weak profits and thus have few resources at its disposal.
(f) How does competition work?
Roughly speaking, competition is driven either by prices or by products:
- Where competition is price-driven, pricing is the main – if not the only – factor that clinches a purchase. Consequently, costs need to be kept under tight control so that products are manufactured as cheaply as possible, product lines need to be streamlined to maximise economies of scale and the production process needs to be automated as far as possible. Market share is a key success factor since higher sales volumes help keep down unit costs (see Boston Consulting Group’s famous experience curve, which shows that unit costs fall by 20% when total production volumes double in size). This is where engineers and financial controllers are most at home! It applies to markets such as petrol, milk, phone calls, and so on. Incumbents beware, however, as new technological advances such as 3D printing can upset the market equilibrium currently dependent on volume maximisation to drive costs lower, by enabling low volume production at low cost, thereby enabling greater production optimisation and further cost efficiencies.
- Where competition is product-driven, customers make purchases based on after-sales service, quality, image, etc., which are not necessarily price-related. Therefore, companies attempt to set themselves apart from their rivals and pay close attention to their sales and customer loyalty techniques. This is where the marketing specialists are in demand! Think about Nespresso’s quality of product and service, Harrods’ atmosphere or, of course, Apple.
The real world is never quite as simple, and competition is rarely only price- or product-driven but is usually dominated by one or the other or maybe even a combination of both, e.g. vitamin-enhanced milk, or the premium fuel that protects your engine.
2/ PRODUCTION
(a) Value chain
A value chain comprises all the companies involved in the manufacturing process, from the raw materials to the end product. Depending on the exact circumstances, a value chain may encompass the extraction and processing of raw materials, R&D, secondary processing, trading activities, a third or fourth processing process, further trading and lastly the end distributor. Increasingly in our service-oriented society, grey matter is the raw material, and processing is replaced by a series of services involving some degree of added value, with distribution retaining its role.
The point of analysing a value chain is to understand the role played by the market participants, as well as their respective strengths and weaknesses. Naturally, in times of crisis, all participants in the value chain come under pressure. But some of them will suffer more than others, and some may even disappear altogether because they are structurally in a weak position within the value chain. Analysts need to determine where the structural weaknesses lie. They must be able to look beyond good performance when times are good, because it may conceal such weaknesses. Analysts’ ultimate goal is to identify where not to invest or not to lend within the value chain.
(b) Production models
In a service-dominated economy, the production models used by an industrial company are rarely analysed, even though we believe this is a very worthwhile exercise.
The first step is to establish whether the company assumes responsibility for or subcontracts the production function, whether production takes place close to points of sale or whether it has been transferred to low-labour-cost countries and whether the labour force is made up of permanent or temporary staff, etc. This step allows the analyst to measure the flexibility of the income statement in the event of a recession or strong growth in the market.
In doing so, the analyst can detect any inconsistency between the product and the industrial organisation adopted to produce it. As indicated in the following chart, there are four different types of industrial organisations:
The project-type organisation falls outside the scope of financial analysis. Although it exists, its economic impact is very modest indeed.
The workshop model may be adopted by craftsmen, in the luxury goods sector or for research purposes, but as soon as a product starts to develop, the workshop model should be discarded as soon as possible.
Mass production is suitable for products with a low unit cost, but gives rise to very high working capital owing to the inventories of semi-finished goods that provide its flexibility. With this type of organisation, barriers to entry are low because as soon as a process designer develops an innovative method, it can be sold to all the market players. This type of production is frequently relocated to emerging markets.
Process-specific production is a type of industrial organisation that took shape in the late 1970s and revolutionised production methods. It has led to a major decline in working capital because inventories of semi-finished goods have almost disappeared. It is a continuous production process from the raw material to the end product, which requires the suppliers, subcontractors and producers to be located close to each other and to work on a just-in-time basis. This type of production is hard to relocate to countries with low labour costs owing to its complexity (fine-tuning), and it does not provide any flexibility given the elimination of the inventories of semi-finished goods. A strike or an accident affecting a supplier or subcontractor may bring the entire group to a standstill.
But readers should not allow themselves to get carried away with the details of these industrial processes. Instead, they should examine the pros and cons of each process and consider how well the company’s business strategy fits with its selected production model. Workshops will never be able to deliver the same volumes as mass production!
This being said, new production methods are developing (3D printing) that combine the flexibility of the workshop with the cost advantage of mass production. These methods have already gained mass adoption in certain industries (dental implants, oil and gas industry, etc.).
(c) Capital expenditure
A company should not invest too early in the production process. When a new product is launched on the market, there is an initial phase during which the product must show that it is well suited to consumers’ needs. Then the product will evolve, more minor new features will be built in and its sales will increase.
From then on, the priority is to lower costs; all attention and attempts at innovation will then gradually shift from the product to the production model.
Investing too early in the production process is a mistake for two reasons. Firstly, money should not be invested in a production process that is not yet stable and might even have to be abandoned. Secondly, it is preferable to use the same funds to anchor the product more firmly in its market through technical innovation and marketing campaigns. Consequently, it may be wiser to outsource the production process and not incur production-related risks on top of the product risk. Conversely, once the production process has stabilised, it is in the company’s best interests to invest in securing a tighter grip over the production process and unlocking productivity gains that will lead to lower costs.
More and more, companies are looking to outsource their manufacturing or service operations, thereby reducing their core expertise to project design and management. Roughly speaking, companies in the past were geared mainly to production and had a vertical organisation structure because value was concentrated in the production function. Nowadays, in a large number of sectors (telecoms equipment, IT, pharmacy, cosmetics, etc.), value lies primarily in the research, innovation and marketing functions.
Companies therefore have to be able to organise and coordinate production carried out externally. This outsourcing trend has given rise to companies such as Foxconn, Fareva and Flex, whose sole expertise is industrial manufacturing and who are able to secure low costs and prices by leveraging economies of scale because they produce items on behalf of several competing groups.
3/ DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS
A distribution system usually plays three roles:
- logistics: displaying, delivering and storing products;
- advice and services: providing details about and promoting the product, providing after-sales service and circulating information between the producer and consumers, and vice versa;
- financing: making firm purchases of the product, i.e. assuming the risk of poor sales.
These three roles are vital, and where the distribution system does not fulfil them or does so only partially, the producer will find itself in a very difficult position and will struggle to expand.
Let’s consider the example of the retail furniture sector. It does not perform the financing role because it does not carry any inventory aside from a few demonstration items. The logistics side merely entails displaying items, and advice is limited, to say the least. As a result, the role of furniture producers is merely that of piece-workers who are unable to build their own brand (a proof of their weakness), the only well-known brands being private-label brands such as IKEA, Made.com, etc.
It is easy to say that producers and distributors have diverging interests, but this is not true. Their overriding goal is the same, i.e. that consumers buy the product. Inevitably, producers and distributors squabble over their respective share of the selling price, but that is a secondary issue. A producer will never be efficient if the distribution network is inefficient.
So what type of distribution system should a company choose? Naturally, this is a key decision for companies. The closer they can get to their end customers, possibly even handling the distribution role themselves, the faster and more accurately they will find out what their customers want (pricing, product ranges, innovation, etc.). And the earlier they become aware of fluctuations in trading conditions, the sooner they will be able to adjust their output. But such choice requires special human skills, investment in logistics and sales facilities and substantial working capital.
This approach makes more sense where the key factor motivating customer purchases is not pricing but the product’s image, after-sales service and quality, which must be tightly controlled by the company itself rather than an external player. For instance, Apple has progressively created its own retail network and has reduced the number of third-party retailers it supplies.
Being far from end customers carries with it the opposite pros and cons. The requisite investment is minimal, but the company is less aware of its customers’ preferences, and the risks associated with cyclical ups and downs are amplified. If end customers slow down their purchases, it may take some time before the end retailer becomes aware of the trend and reduces its purchases from the wholesaler. The wholesaler will, in turn, suffer from an inertia effect before scaling down its purchases from the producer, who will not therefore have been made aware of the slowdown until several weeks or even months after it started. And when conditions pick up again, it is not unusual for distributors to run out of stock even though the producer still has vast inventories.
Where price competition predominates, it is better for the producer to focus its investment on production facilities to lower its costs, rather than to spread it thinly across a distribution network that requires different expertise from the production side.
The common use of e-commerce represents a revolution in terms of distribution. It has reshuffled the cards in what was previously an oligopolistic sector, but with fierce competition (mass retail outlets); perhaps to the benefit of what is now a de facto monopoly (Amazon). This being said, the Internet allows small producers to reach a very large target audience at a lower cost (Augustinus Bader); and despite not controlling the full scope of distribution, the proximity to the customer is often much closer than in a franchised network with numerous intermediaries. This has occurred elsewhere: after very difficult years, online streaming of music content has provided the music industry with fresh impetus.
The sheer quantity of data available on customer behaviour generated by e-commerce has become a major issue. This has become key for companies in the 21st century.
4/ THE COMPANY AND ITS PEOPLE
All too often, we have heard it said that a company’s human resources are what really count. In certain cases, this is used to justify all kinds of strange decisions. There may be some truth to it in smaller companies, which do not have strategic positions and survive thanks to the personal qualities and charisma of their managers. Such a situation represents a major source of uncertainty for lenders and shareholders. To say that the men and women employed by a company are important may well be true, but management will still have to establish strategic positions and build up economic rents1 that give some value to the company aside from its founder or manager.
(a) Shareholders
From a purely financial standpoint, the most important men and women of a company are its shareholders. They appoint its executives and determine its strategy. It is important to know who they are and what their aims are, as we will see in Chapter 41. There are two types of shareholder, namely inside and outside shareholders.
Inside shareholders are shareholders who also perform a role within the company, usually with management responsibilities. This fosters strong attachment to the company and sometimes leads to the pursuit of scale-, power- and prestige-related objectives that may have very little to do with financial targets. Outside shareholders do not work within the company and behave in a purely financial manner.
What sets inside shareholders apart is that they assume substantial personal risks because both their assets and income are dependent on the same source, i.e. the company. Consequently, inside shareholders usually pay closer attention than a manager who is not a shareholder and whose wealth is only partly tied up in the company. Nonetheless, the danger is that inside shareholders may not take the right decisions, e.g. to shut down a unit, dispose of a business or discontinue an unsuccessful diversification venture, owing to emotional ties or out of obstinacy. The Viacom Group would probably have fared better during the 2010s had the group’s founder not clung on to his position as executive chairman well into his nineties.
Outside shareholders have a natural advantage. Because their behaviour is guided purely by financial criteria, they will serve as a very useful touchstone for the group’s strategy and financial policy. That said, if the company runs into problems, they may act very passively and show a lack of resolve that will not help managers very much.
Analysts should watch out for conflicts among shareholders that may paralyse the normal life of the company. Telecom Italia’s recovery has undoubtedly been slowed down since 2018 by the battle between its two main shareholders (Bolloré and the activist fund Elliott) and the frequent management changes that this has brought about.
(b) Managers
It is important to understand the managers’ objectives and attitude vis-à-vis shareholders. The reader needs to bear in mind that the widespread development of share-option-based incentive systems in particular has aligned the managers’ financial interests with those of shareholders. We will examine this topic in greater depth in Chapter 26.
We would advise readers to be very cautious where incentive systems have been extended to include the majority of a company’s employees. Firstly, performance-based shares cannot yet be used to buy food or pay rents and so salaries must remain the main source of income for unskilled employees. Secondly, should a company’s position start to deteriorate, its top talent will be fairly quick to jump ship after having sold their performance-based shares before they become worthless. Those that remain on board may fail to grasp what is happening until it is too late, thereby losing precious time. This is what happened to so-called new economy companies, which distributed stock options as a standard form of remuneration. It is an ideal system when everything is going well, but highly dangerous in the event of a crisis because it exacerbates the company’s difficulties.
(c) Corporate culture
Corporate culture is probably very difficult for an outside observer to assess. Nonetheless, it represents a key factor, particularly when a company embarks on acquisitions or diversification ventures. A monolithic and highly centralised company with specific expertise in a limited number of products will struggle to diversify its businesses because it will probably seek to apply the same methods to its target, thereby disrupting the latter’s impetus.
Thus, the takeover of Marionnaud, a family\ePubPageBreak?> business in the distribution of perfumes, by a Hong Kong conglomerate was a failure (Séphora has since become the market leader), because the latter’s authoritarian culture was not very suitable for what has historically been a group of small merchants at heart.
On the other hand, the Despature family has successfully transformed its activities from the manufacture and distribution of Damart knitwear to the automation and motorisation of gates, doors and windows, Somfy. Its CEO had the intelligence to understand that for his situation he needed engineers and not marketing experts to manage this diversification, which has gradually become the group’s core activity.
5/ ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE POLICY (ESG)
Depending on the company, environmental issues are more or less important. Crucial in heavy industry (ArcelorMittal, for example), significantly less so in service industries (such as WPP). But one must be wary of appearances, as some sectors can find themselves at the centre of unintuitive controversies (the energy costs generated by cryptocurrency mining).
The financial analyst must also understand the issues and politics surrounding gender, diversity and good governance (representativeness, board independence, see Chapter 43).
On these topics, the analyst must identify the issues and understand how the company manages them. They can have immediate and also long-term financial impacts on the cost of capital or the company’s ability to attract the talents that will guarantee its future value.
Section 8.3 AN ASSESSMENT OF A COMPANY’S ACCOUNTING POLICY
We cannot overemphasise the importance of analysing the auditors’ report and considering the accounting principles adopted before embarking on a financial analysis of a group’s accounts based on the guide that we will present in Section 8.4.
If a company’s accounting principles are in line with practices, then readers will be able to study the accounts with a fairly high level of assurance about their relevance, i.e. their ability to provide a decent reflection of the company’s economic reality.
Conversely, if readers detect anomalies or accounting practices that depart from the norm, then there is little need to examine the accounts because they provide a distorted picture of the company’s economic reality. In such circumstances, we can only advise the lender not to lend or to dispose of its loans as soon as possible and the shareholder not to buy shares or to sell any already held as soon as possible. A company that adopts accounting principles that deviate from the usual standards does not do so by chance. In all likelihood the company will be seeking to window-dress a fairly grim reality.
Section 8.4 STANDARD FINANCIAL ANALYSIS PLAN
Experience has taught us that novices are often disconcerted when faced with the task of carrying out their first financial analysis because they do not know where to start and what to aim for. They risk producing a collection of mainly descriptive comments without connecting them or verifying their internal consistency, i.e. without establishing any causal links, or mindlessly calculating a series of ratios without understanding the logic and rationale behind them.
A financial analysis is an investigation that must be carried out in a logical order. It comprises parts that are interlinked and should not therefore be carried out in isolation. Financial analysts are detectives, constantly on the lookout for clues, seeking to establish a logical sequence, as well as looking for any disruptive factor that may be a prelude to problems in the future. The questions they most often need to ask are “Is this logical? Is this consistent with what I have already found? If so, why? If not, why not?”
We suggest that readers remember the following sentence, which can be used as the basis for all types of financial analysis:
Let us analyse this sentence in more depth. A company will be able to remain viable and ultimately survive only if it manages to find customers ready to buy its goods or services in the long term at a price that enables it to post a sufficient operating profit. This forms the base for everything else. Consequently, it is important to look first at the structure of the company’s earnings. But the company needs to make capital expenditures to start operations: acquiring equipment, buildings, patents, subsidiaries, etc. (which are fixed assets) and setting aside amounts to cover working capital. Fixed assets and working capital jointly form its capital employed. Naturally, these outlays will have to be financed either through equity or bank loans and other borrowings.
Once these three factors (margins, capital employed and financing) have been examined, the company’s profitability, i.e. its efficiency, can be calculated, in terms of either its return on capital employed (ROCE) or its return on equity (ROE). This marks the end of the analyst’s task and provides the answers to the original questions, i.e. Is the company able to honour the commitments it has made to its creditors? Is it able to create value for its shareholders?
Consequently, we have to study the company’s:
- wealth creation, by focusing on:
- trends in the company’s sales, including an analysis of both prices and volumes. This is a key variable that sets the backdrop for a financial analysis. An expanding company does not face the same problems as a company in decline, in a recession, pursuing a recovery plan or experiencing exponential growth;
- the impact of business trends, the strength of the cycle and its implications in terms of volumes and prices (gap vs. those seen at the top or bottom of the cycle);
- trends in margins and particularly the EBITDA and EBIT margins;
- an examination of the scissors effect (see Chapter 9) and the operating leverage (see Chapter 10), without which the analysis is not very robust from a conceptual standpoint.
- capital employed policy, i.e. capital expenditure and working capital (see Chapter 11);
- financing policy: This involves examining how the company has financed capital expenditure and working capital either by means of debt, equity or internally generated cash flow. The best way of doing so is to look at the cash flow statement for a dynamic analysis and the balance sheet for a snapshot of the situation at the company’s year end (see Chapter 12).
- profitability by:
- analysing its ROCE and ROE, leverage effect and associated risk (see Chapter 13);
- comparing actual profitability with the required rate of return (on capital employed or by shareholders) to determine whether the company is creating value and whether the company is solvent (see Chapter 14).
In the following chapters we use the case of the ArcelorMittal group as an example of how to carry out a financial analysis.
ArcelorMittal is the world’s largest steel group. It employs 168,000 people and recorded sales of $53,270m in 2020.
Annual reports of ArcelorMittal from 2012 to 2018 are available on the website, www.vernimmen.com.
Let’s now see the various different techniques that can be used in financial analysis.
Section 8.5 THE VARIOUS TECHNIQUES OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
1/ TREND ANALYSIS OR THE STUDY OF THE SAME COMPANY OVER SEVERAL PERIODS
Financial analysis always takes into account trends over several years because its role is to look at the past in order to assess the present situation and to forecast the future. It may also be applied to projected financial statements prepared by the company. The only way of teasing out trends is to look at performance over several years (usually at least three where the information is available).
Analysts need to bring to light any possible deterioration so that they can seize on any warning signals pointing to major problems facing the company. This approach has two important drawbacks:
- trend analysis only makes sense when the data are roughly comparable from one year to the next. This is not the case if the company’s business activities, business model (e.g. massive use of outsourcing) or scope of consolidation change partially or entirely, not to mention any changes in the accounting rules;
- accounting information is always published with a delay. Broadly speaking, the accounts for a financial year are published between one and four months after the year end, and they may no longer bear any relation to the company’s present situation. In this respect, external analysts stand at a disadvantage to their internal counterparts who are able to obtain data much more rapidly if the company has an efficient information system.
2/ COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OR COMPARING SIMILAR COMPANIES
Comparative analysis consists of evaluating a company’s key profit indicators and ratios so that they can be compared with the typical (median or average) indicators and ratios of companies operating in the same sector of activity. The basic idea is that one should not get up to any more nonsense than one’s neighbours, particularly when it comes to a company’s balance sheet. Why is that? Simply because during a recession most of the lame ducks will be eliminated and only healthy companies will be left standing. A company is not viable or unviable in absolute terms. It is merely more or less viable than others.
The comparative method is often used by financial analysts to compare the financial performance of companies operating in the same sector, by certain companies to set customer payment periods, by banks to assess the abnormal nature of certain payment periods and of certain inventory turnover rates, and by those examining a company’s financial structure. It may be used systematically by drawing on the research published by organisations (such as central banks, Datastream, Standard & Poor’s or Moody’s, etc.) that compile the financial information supplied by a large number of companies. They publish the main financial characteristics, in a standardised format, of companies operating in different sectors of activity, as well as the norm (median or average) for each indicator or ratio in each sector. This is the realm of benchmarking.
This approach has two drawbacks:
- The concept of sector is a vague one and depends on the level of granularity applied. This approach analyses a company based on rival firms, so to be of any value, the information compiled from the various companies in the sector must be consistent, and the sample must be sufficiently representative.
- There may be cases of mass delusion, leading to all the stocks in a particular sector being temporarily overvalued. Financial investors should then withdraw from the sector.
3/ NORMATIVE ANALYSIS AND FINANCIAL RULES OF THUMB
Normative analysis represents an extension of comparative analysis. It is based on a comparison of certain company ratios or indicators with rules or standards derived from a vast sample of companies.
For instance, there are norms specific to certain industries:
- in the hotel sector, the bed-per-night cost must be at least 1/1,000 of the cost of building the room, or the sales generated after three years should be at least one-third of the investment cost;
- the level of work in progress relative to the company’s shareholders’ equity in the construction sector;
- the level of sales generated per square metre in supermarkets, etc.
There are also some financial rules of thumb applicable to all companies regardless of the sector in which they operate and relating to their balance sheet structure:
- fixed assets should be financed by stable sources of funds;
- net debt becomes significant above three times EBITDA.
Readers should be careful not to set too much store by these norms, which are often not very robust from a conceptual standpoint because they are determined from statistical studies. These ratios are hard to interpret, except perhaps where capital structure is concerned. After all, profitable companies can afford to do what they want, and some may indeed appear to be acting rather whimsically, but profitability is what really matters. Likewise, we will illustrate in Section IV of this book that there is no such thing as an ideal capital structure.
Section 8.6 RATINGS
Credit ratings are the result of a continuous assessment of a borrower’s solvency by a specialised agency (mainly Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch, Scope), or by banks for internal purposes to ensure that they meet prudential ratios and by credit insurers (e.g. Euler Hermes, Ellisphere). As we shall see in Chapter 20, this assessment leads to the award of a rating reflecting an opinion about the risk of a borrowing. The financial risk derives both from:
- the borrower’s ability to honour the stipulated payments; and
- the specific characteristics of the borrowing, notably its guarantees and legal characteristics.
The rating is awarded at the end of a fairly lengthy process. Rating agencies assess the company’s strategic risks by analysing its market position within the sector (market share, industrial efficiency, size, quality of management, etc.) and by conducting an analysis of the financials. That is to say, by conducting a financial analysis as we have presented it.
The main aspects considered include trends in the operating margin, trends and sustainability of return on capital employed, analysis of capital structure (and notably coverage of financial expense by operating profit and coverage of net debt by cash generated by operations or cash flow). We will deal with these ratios in more depth in Chapters 9 to 14.
ESG rating is becoming increasingly important. It can be independent, but is increasingly integrated with financial ratings by the major rating agencies.
Let us now deal with what may be described as “automated” financial analysis techniques, which we will not return to again.
Section 8.7 SCORING TECHNIQUES
1/ THE PRINCIPLES OF CREDIT SCORING
Credit scoring is an analytical technique intended to carry out a pre-emptive check-up of a company.
The basic idea is to prepare ratios from companies’ accounts that are leading indicators (i.e. two or three years ahead) of potential difficulties. Once the ratios have been established, they merely have to be calculated for a given company and cross-checked against the values obtained for companies that are known to have run into problems or have failed. Comparisons are not made ratio by ratio, but globally. The ratios are combined in a function known as the Z-score, which yields a score for each company. The equation for calculating Z-scores is as follows:
where a is a constant, Ri the ratios, i the relative weighting applied to ratio Ri and n the number of ratios used.
Depending on whether a given company’s Z-score is close to or a long way off normative values based on a set of companies that ran into trouble, the company in question is said to have a certain probability of experiencing trouble or remaining healthy over the following two- or three-year period. Originally developed in the US during the late 1960s by Edward Altman, the family of Z-scores has been highly popular, the latest version of the Z″ equation being:
where X1 is working capital/total assets; X2 is retained earnings/total assets; X3 is operating profit/total assets; X4 is shareholders’ equity/net debt.
If Z″ is less than 1.1, then the probability of corporate failure is high, and if Z″ is higher than 2.6, then the probability of corporate failure is low, the grey area being values of between 1.1 and 2.6. The Z″-score has not yet been replaced by the Zeta score, which introduces into the equation the criteria of earnings stability, debt servicing and balance sheet liquidity.
Some private organisations or companies publish or sell their scoring analysis and results on companies: Ellisphere, Altares, Pouey International, Dun & Bradstreet, Creditsafe, etc.
Some “Fintech” startups (such as Kabbage, Faircent or OnDeck) have developed credit scoring methods to facilitate the process of granting (or not granting) loans to individuals or very small entities.
2/ BENEFITS AND DRAWBACKS OF SCORING TECHNIQUES
Scoring techniques represent an enhancement of traditional ratio analysis, which is based on the isolated use of certain ratios. With scoring techniques, the problem of the relative importance to be attached to each ratio has been solved, because each is weighted according to its ability to pick out the “bad” companies from the “good” ones.
That said, scoring techniques still have a number of drawbacks.
Some weaknesses derive from the statistical underpinnings of the scoring equation. The sample needs to be sufficiently large, the database accurate and consistent and the period considered sufficiently long to reveal trends in the behaviour of companies and to measure its impact.
The scoring equation has to be based on historical data from the fairly recent past and thus needs to be updated over time. Can the same equation be used several years later when the economic and financial environment in which companies operate may have changed considerably? It is thus vital for scoring equations to be kept up to date.
The design of scoring equations is heavily influenced by their designers’ top priority, i.e. to measure the risk of failure for small and medium-sized enterprises. They are not well suited for any other purpose (e.g. predicting in advance which companies will be highly profitable) or for measuring the risk of failure for large groups. Scoring equations should thus be used only for companies where the business activities and size are on a par with those in the original sample.
Scoring techniques, which are a straightforward and rapid way of synthesising figures, have considerable appeal. Their development may even have perverse self-fulfilling effects. Prior awareness of the risk of failure (which scoring techniques aim to provide) may lead some of the companies’ business partners to adopt behaviour that hastens their demise. Suppliers may refuse to provide credit, banks may call in their loans, customers may be harder to come by because they are worried about not receiving delivery of the goods they buy or not being able to rely on after-sales service.
Section 8.8 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE APPLIED TO FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
For several decades now, attempts have been made to automate financial analysis in a more sophisticated way than via a linear equation (score method). What is now called artificial intelligence (AI) applied to financial analysis was called neural networks or expert systems a few years ago. But the use of algorithms to detect business failures comes up against the psychological barrier of potentially far-reaching decision-making occurring, given the amounts involved, without being able to understand the analysis carried out by the machine.
To our knowledge, today, AI is only used in practice for rating individuals (mainly consumer loans). It remains a research area for corporate finance.
SUMMARY
QUESTIONS
EXERCISES
ANSWERS
BIBLIOGRAPHY
NOTE
- 1 That is, earn a rate of return higher than justified by risk. See Chapter 26.
Chapter 9. MARGIN ANALYSIS: STRUCTURE
If financial analysis were a puppet, company strategy would be pulling its strings
An analysis of a company’s margins is the first step in any financial analysis. It is a key stage because a company that does not manage to sell its products or services for more than the corresponding production costs is clearly doomed to fail. But, as we shall see, positive margins are not sufficient on their own to create value or to escape bankruptcy.
Net income is what is left after all the revenues and charges shown on the income statement have been taken into account. Readers will not therefore be very surprised to learn that we will not spend too much time on analysing net income as such. A company’s performance depends primarily on its operating performance, which explains why recurring operating profit (or EBIT) is the focus of analysts’ attention. Financial and non-recurrent items are regarded as “inevitable” or “automatic” and thus less interesting, particularly when it comes to forecasting a company’s future prospects.
The first step in margin analysis is to examine the accounting practices used by the company to draw up its income statement. We dealt with this subject in Chapter 8 and shall not restate it here, except to stress how important it is. Given the emphasis placed by analysts on studying operating profit, there is a big temptation for companies to present an attractive recurring operating profit by transferring operating charges to financial or non-recurring items (or a “non-current” category in IFRS).
The next stage involves a trend analysis based on an examination of the revenues and charges that determined the company’s operating performance. This is useful only insofar as it sheds light on the past to help predict the future. Therefore, it is based on historical data and should cover several financial years. Naturally, this exercise is based on the assumption that the company’s business activities have not altered significantly during the period under consideration.
The main potential pitfall in this exercise is adopting a purely descriptive approach, without much or any analytical input, e.g. statements such as “personnel cost increased by 10%, rising from 100 to 110…”.
Margin trends are a reflection of a company’s:
- strategic position, which may be stronger or weaker depending on the scissors effect; and
- risk profile, which may be stronger or weaker depending on the breakeven effect that we will examine in Chapter 10.
As we saw in Chapter 8, analysing a company’s operating profit involves assessing what these figures tell us about its strategic position, which directly influences the size of its margins and its profitability:
- a company lacking any strategic power will, sooner or later, post a poor, if not negative, operating performance;
- a company with strategic power will be more profitable than the other companies in its business sector.
In our income statement analysis, our approach therefore needs to be far more qualitative than quantitative.
Section 9.1 HOW OPERATING PROFIT IS FORMED
By-nature format income statements (raw material purchases, personnel cost, etc.), which predominate in Continental Europe, provide a more in-depth analysis than the by-function format developed in the Anglo-Saxon tradition of accounting (cost of sales, selling and marketing costs, research and development costs, etc.). Granted, analysts only have to page through the notes to the accounts for the more detailed information they need to get to grips with. In most cases, they will be able to work back towards EBITDA1 by using the depreciation and amortisation data that must be included in the notes or in the cash flow statement.
1/ SALES
Before sales volumes can be analysed, external growth needs to be separated from the company’s organic growth, so that like can be compared with like. This means analysing the company’s performance (in terms of its volumes and prices) on a comparable-structure basis and then assessing additions to and withdrawals from the scope of consolidation. In practice, most groups publish pro forma accounts in the notes to their accounts, showing the income statements for the relevant and previous periods based on the same scope of consolidation and using the same consolidation methods.
If a company is experiencing very brisk growth, then analysts will need to look closely at the growth in operating costs and the cash needs generated by this growth.
A company experiencing a period of stagnation will have to scale down its operating costs and financial requirements. As we shall see later in this chapter, production factors do not have the same flexibility profile when sales are growing as when sales are declining.
Where a company sells a single product, volume growth can easily be calculated as the difference between the overall increase in sales and the selling price of its product. Where it sells a variety of different products or services, analysts face a trickier task. In such circumstances, they have the option of either working along the same lines by studying the company’s main products or calculating an average price increase, based on which the average growth in volumes can be estimated.
An analysis of price increases provides valuable insight into the extent to which overall growth in sales is attributable to inflation. The analysis can be carried out by comparing trends in the company’s prices with those in the general price index for its sector of activity. Account also needs to be taken of currency fluctuations and changes in the product mix, which may sometimes significantly affect sales, especially in consolidated accounts.
In turn, this process helps to shed light on the company’s strategy, i.e.:
- whether its prices have increased through efforts to sell higher-value-added products;
- whether prices have been hiked owing to a lack of control on administrative overheads, which will gradually erode sales performance;
- whether the company has lowered its prices in a bid to pass on efficiency gains to customers and thus to strengthen its market position;
- etc.
The impact of changes in exchange rates on business activity should be compared with the exposure of costs to these same currencies. A company producing and selling in the same country will only be exposed on the margin in contrast to an exporting company which is exposed on sales.
2/ PRODUCTION
Sales represent what the company has been able to sell to its customers. Production represents what the company has produced during the year and is computed as follows:
First and foremost, production provides a way of establishing a relationship between the materials used during a given period and the corresponding sales generated. As a result, it is particularly important where the company carries high levels of inventories or work in progress. Unfortunately, production is not entirely consistent insofar as it lumps together:
- production sold (sales), shown at the selling price;
- changes in inventories of finished goods and work in progress and production for own use, stated at cost price.
Consequently, production is primarily an accounting concept that depends on the methods used to value the company’s inventories of finished goods and work in progress.
A faster rate of growth in production than in sales may be the result of serious problems:
- overproduction, which the company will have to absorb in the following year thanks to market growth or conversely, by curbing its activities, bringing additional costs;
- overstatement of inventories’ value, which will reduce the margins posted by the company in future periods.
Production for own use does not constitute a problem unless its size seems relatively large. From a tax standpoint, it is good practice to maximise the amount of capital expenditure that can be expensed, in which case production for own use is kept to a minimum. An unusually high amount may conceal problems and an effort by management to boost book profit superficially.
3/ GROSS MARGIN
Gross margin is the difference between production and the cost of raw materials used:
It is useful in industrial sectors where it is a crucial indicator and helps to shed light on a company’s strategy.
This is another arena in which price and volume effects are at work, but it is almost impossible to separate them out because of the variety of items involved. At this general level, it is very hard to calculate productivity ratios for raw materials. Consequently, analysts may have to make do with a comparison between the growth rate in cost of sales and that in net sales (for by-function income statements), or the growth rate of raw materials and that in production (for by-nature income statements). A sustained difference between these figures may be attributable to changes in the products manufactured by the company or improvements (deterioration) in the production process.
Conversely, internal analysts may be able to calculate productivity ratios based on actual raw material costs used in the operating cycle, since they have access to the company’s management accounts.
4/ GROSS TRADING PROFIT
Gross trading profit is the difference between the selling price of goods for sale and their purchase cost:
It is useful only in the retail, wholesale and trading sectors, where it is a crucial indicator and helps to shed light on a company’s strategy. It is generally more stable than its components (i.e. sales and the cost of goods for sale sold), with the distributor being able to pass on price increases to the end customer and competition market dynamics imposing a price reduction when the purchase price of goods sold decreases.
5/ VALUE ADDED
This represents the value added by the company to goods and services purchased from third parties through its activities. It is equivalent to the sum of gross trading profit and gross margin used minus other goods and services purchased from third parties.
It may thus be calculated as follows for by-nature income statements:
Other operating costs comprise outsourcing costs, property or equipment rental charges,2 the cost of raw materials and supplies that cannot be held in inventory (i.e. water, energy, small items of equipment, maintenance-related items, administrative supplies, etc.), maintenance and repair work, insurance premiums, studies and research costs, fees payable to intermediaries and professional costs, advertising costs, transportation charges, travel costs, the cost of meetings and receptions, postal charges and bank charges (not interest on bank loans, which is booked under interest expense).
For by-function income statements, value added may be calculated as follows:
At company level, value added is of interest only insofar as it provides valuable insight regarding the degree of a company’s integration within its sector.
Besides that, we do not regard the concept of value added as being very useful. In our view, it is not very helpful to make a distinction between what a company adds to a product or service internally and what it buys in from the outside. This is because all the decisions of a company are tailored to the various markets in which it operates, such as the markets for labour, raw materials, capital goods, to cite but a few. Against this backdrop, a company formulates a specific value-creation strategy, i.e. a way of differentiating its offering from that of its rivals in order to generate a revenue stream.
This is what really matters – not the internal/external distinction.
In addition, value added is only useful where a market-based relationship exists between the company and its suppliers in the broad sense of the term, e.g. suppliers of raw materials, and suppliers of labour. In the food sector, food-processing companies usually establish special relationships with the farming industry. As a result, a company with a workforce of 1,000 may actually keep 10,000 farmers in work. This raises the issue of what such a company’s real value added is.
6/ PERSONNEL COST
This is a very important item because it is often high in relative terms. Personnel expense and payroll charges also include employee incentive payments, stock options and profit-sharing.
Although personnel cost is theoretically a variable cost, it actually represents a genuinely fixed-cost item from a short-term perspective.
A financial analysis should focus both on volume and price effects (measured by the average total salary cost ratio) as well as the employee productivity ratio, which is measured by the following ratios: or . Since external analysts are unable to make more accurate calculations, they have to make a rough approximation of the actual situation. In general, productivity gains are limited and are thinly spread across most income statement items, making them hard to isolate.
Analysts should not neglect the inertia of personnel cost, as regards either increases or decreases in the headcount. If 100 additional staff members are hired throughout the year, this means that only 50% of their salary costs will appear in the first year, with the full amount showing up in the following period. The same applies if employees are laid off.
7/ EARNINGS BEFORE INTEREST, TAXES, DEPRECIATION AND AMORTISATION (EBITDA)
As we saw in Chapter 3, EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) is a key concept in the analysis of income statements. The concepts we have just examined, i.e. value added and production, have more to do with macroeconomics, whereas EBITDA firmly belongs to the field of microeconomics.
EBITDA is the difference between all operating revenues and all operating expenses that will eventually result in a cash inflow or outflow. It is computed as follows:
Alternatively, for by-nature income statements, EBITDA can be computed as follows:
Other operating costs comprise redundancy payments, recurring restructuring charges, payments relating to patents, licences, concessions, representation agreements and directors’ fees. Other operating revenues include payments received in respect of patents, licences, concessions, representation agreements, directors’ fees, operating subsidies received.
Impairment losses on current assets include impairment losses related to receivables (doubtful receivables), inventories, work in progress and various other receivables related to the current or previous periods. Additions to provisions primarily include provisions for retirement benefit costs (when not already included in employee salary costs), litigation, major repairs and deferred costs, statutory leave, redundancy or pre-redundancy payments, early retirement, future under-activity and relocation, provided that they relate to the company’s normal business activities. In fact, these provisions represent losses for the company and should be deducted from its EBITDA.
Since it is unaffected by non-cash charges – i.e. depreciation, amortisation, impairment charges and provisions, which may leave analysts rather blindsided – trends in the EBITDA/sales ratio, known as the EBITDA margin, form a central part of a financial analysis. All the points we have dealt with so far in this section should enable a financial analyst to explain why a group’s EBITDA margin expanded or contracted by x points between one period and the next. The EBITDA margin change can be attributable to an overrun on production costs, to personnel cost, to the price effect on sales or to a combination of all these factors.
Our experience tells us that competitive pressures are making it increasingly hard for companies to keep their EBITDA margin moving in the right direction!
The following table shows trends in the EBITDA margins posted by various sectors in Europe over the 2000–2022 period (2021 and 2022 are Exane BNP Paribas estimates).
Sector | 2005 | 2010 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021e | 2022e |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aerospace & Defence | 7% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 4% | 7% | 9% |
Automotive | 5% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 4% | 7% | 8% |
Beverages | 19% | 23% | 24% | 24% | 25% | 25% | 24% | 22% | 23% | 23% |
Building Materials | 12% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 13% |
Business Services | 7% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 9% |
Capital Goods | 5% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 12% |
Chemicals | 12% | 13% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 13% | 14% | 15% |
Consumer Goods | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 11% | 11% |
Food & HPC | 13% | 15% | 16% | 16% | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% |
Food Retail | 4% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% |
General Retail | 12% | 12% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 5% | 8% | 9% |
IT Hardware | 13% | 11% | 12% | 8% | 11% | 10% | 12% | 15% | 14% | 17% |
IT Services | 6% | 9% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 11% | 14% | 16% |
Leisure & Hotels | 7% | 6% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 7% | -2% | 2% | 6% |
Luxury Goods | 14% | 19% | 18% | 18% | 19% | 21% | 21% | 16% | 21% | 22% |
Media | 16% | 18% | 18% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 15% | 14% | 15% | 16% |
Medtech & Services | 7% | 14% | 15% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 14% | 16% | 16% |
Mining | 28% | 19% | 6% | 11% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 18% | 20% | 17% |
Oil & Gas | 14% | 10% | 3% | 3% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 5% | 7% | 10% |
Paper & Packaging | 14% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 12% | 13% |
Software | 28% | 31% | 28% | 28% | 25% | 27% | 25% | 25% | 22% | 23% |
Steel | 9% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 2% | -3% | 5% | 6% |
Telecom Operators | 19% | 17% | 13% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 14% | 15% |
Transport & Infrastructure | 7% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 0% | 6% | 9% |
Utilities | 15% | 13% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 11% | 11% |
Source: Exane BNP Paribas
It clearly shows, among other things, the tiny but stable EBITDA margin of food retailers and the very high EBITDA margin for the telecom operators, which need heavy investment, thus requiring high margins in order to get sufficient returns.
8/ OPERATING PROFIT OR EBIT
Now we come to the operating profit (EBIT), an indicator whose stock is still at the top. Analysts usually refer to the operating profit/sales ratio as the operating margin, trends in which must also be explained.
Operating profit is EBITDA minus non-cash operating costs. It may thus be calculated as follows:
Impairment losses on fixed assets relate to operating assets (brands, purchased goodwill, etc.) and are normally included with depreciation and amortisation by accountants. We beg to differ, as impairment losses are normally non-recurring items and as such should be excluded by the analyst from the operating profit and relegated to the bottom of the income statement. If the impairment of fixed assets were recurrent, one would legitimately have to question the relevance of the valuation of such assets.
As we saw in Chapter 3, the by-function format directly reaches operating profit without passing through EBITDA:
The emphasis placed by analysts on operating performance has led many companies to attempt to boost their operating profit artificially by excluding charges that should logically be included. These charges are usually to be found on the separate “Other income and costs” line, below operating profit, and are, of course, normally negative. For instance, we have seen operating foreign exchange losses, recurring provisions environmental liabilities and anticipated losses on contracts excluded from operating profit. In other cases, capital gains on asset disposals have been included in recurring EBIT.
Other companies publish an operating profit figure and a separate EBIT figure, presented as being more significant than operating profit. Naturally, it is always higher, too.
The following table shows trends in the operating margin posted by various sectors over the 2000–2022 period.
The reader may notice, for example, how cyclical the mining sector is in stark contrast to the food sector.
Sector | 2005 | 2010 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021e | 2022e |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aerospace & Defence | 10% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 9% | 11% | 13% |
Automotive | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 12% | 13% |
Beverages | 25% | 29% | 30% | 29% | 31% | 31% | 31% | 30% | 30% | 30% |
Building Materials | 16% | 14% | 14% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 16% | 16% | 17% | 18% |
Business Services | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 11% | 12% | 13% |
Capital Goods | 8% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 12% | 14% | 15% |
Chemicals | 17% | 18% | 18% | 19% | 20% | 19% | 19% | 21% | 20% | 21% |
Consumer Goods | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 15% | 15% |
Food & HPC | 16% | 18% | 19% | 19% | 20% | 21% | 21% | 21% | 21% | 21% |
Food Retail | 6% | 7% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
General Retail | 15% | 16% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 13% | 12% | 14% | 15% |
IT Hardware | 18% | 13% | 15% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 17% | 20% | 19% | 22% |
IT Services | 8% | 11% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 15% | 17% | 16% | 18% | 20% |
Leisure & Hotels | 11% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 12% | 7% | 10% | 12% |
Luxury Goods | 17% | 23% | 23% | 23% | 24% | 25% | 30% | 29% | 32% | 32% |
Media | 21% | 23% | 22% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 21% | 20% | 21% | 22% |
Medtech & Services | 12% | 18% | 19% | 19% | 20% | 20% | 22% | 21% | 22% | 23% |
Mining | 35% | 23% | 14% | 19% | 19% | 19% | 18% | 26% | 27% | 24% |
Oil & Gas | 16% | 16% | 14% | 13% | 15% | 15% | 16% | 18% | 17% | 19% |
Paper & Packaging | 25% | 14% | 13% | 16% | 16% | 19% | 18% | 18% | 19% | 19% |
Software | 29% | 33% | 31% | 31% | 29% | 31% | 29% | 30% | 26% | 28% |
Steel | 13% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 9% | 10% |
Telecom Operators | 35% | 32% | 28% | 29% | 30% | 30% | 33% | 35% | 35% | 36% |
Transport & Infrastructure | 12% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 16% | 10% | 15% | 17% |
Utilities | 22% | 20% | 15% | 17% | 16% | 18% | 20% | 19% | 20% | 20% |
Source: Exane BNP Paribas
Section 9.2 HOW OPERATING PROFIT IS ALLOCATED
EBIT is divided up among the company’s providers of funds: financial earnings for the lenders, net income for the shareholders and corporation tax for the government, which although it does not provide funds, creates and maintains infrastructure and a favourable environment; without forgetting non-recurrent items.
1/ NET FINANCIAL EXPENSE/INCOME
It may seem strange to talk about net financial income for an industrial or service company whose activities are not primarily geared towards generating financial income. Since finance is merely supposed to be a form of financing a company’s operating assets, financial items should normally show a negative balance, and this is generally the case. That said, some companies, particularly large groups generating substantial negative working capital (like big retailers, for instance), have financial aspirations and generate net financial income, to which their financial income makes a significant contribution.
Net financial expense thus equals financial expense minus financial income. Where financial income is greater than financial expense, we naturally refer to it as net financial income.
Financial income includes:
- income from securities and from loans recorded as long-term investments (fixed assets). This covers all income received from investments other than participating interests, i.e. dividends and interest on loans;
- other interests and related income, i.e. income from commercial (rare!) and other loans, income from marketable securities, other financial income;
- write-backs of certain provisions and charges transferred, i.e. write-backs of provisions, of impairment losses on financial items and, lastly, write-backs of financial charges transferred;
- foreign exchange gains on debt;
- changes in unrealised capital gains for marketable securities.
Financial expense includes:
- interest and related charges;
- foreign exchange losses on debt;
- net expense on the disposal of marketable securities, i.e. capital losses on the disposal of marketable securities;
- amortisation of bond redemption premiums;
- additions to provisions for financial liabilities and charges and impairment losses on investments.
Net financial expense is not directly related to the operating cycle, but instead reflects the size of the company’s debt burden and the level of interest rates. There is no volume or price effect to be seen at this level. Chapter 12, which is devoted to the issue of how companies are financed, covers the analysis of net financial expense in much greater detail.
Profit before tax is the difference between operating profit and financial expense net of financial income.
2/ NON-RECURRING ITEMS
Depending on accounting principles, firms are allowed to include more or fewer items in the exceptional/extraordinary items line. Under IFRS rules, extraordinary and exceptional items are included in operating profit without identifying them as such. Nevertheless, the real need for such a distinction has led a large number of companies reporting in IFRS to present a “recurring operating profit” (or similar term) before the operating profit line.
Non-recurring items should be defined on a case-by-case basis by the analyst.
Without any doubt, extraordinary items and results from discontinued operations are non-recurrent items.
Exceptional items are much trickier to analyse. In large groups, closure of plants, provisions for restructuring, etc. tend to happen more or less every year in different divisions or countries and should consequently be treated as recurring items. In some sectors, exceptional items are an intrinsic part of the business. A car rental company renews its fleet of cars every nine months and regularly registers capital gains. Exceptional items should then be analysed as recurrent items and as such be included in the operating profit. For smaller companies, exceptional items tend to be one-off items and as such should be seen as non-recurrent items.
It makes no sense to assess the current level of non-recurring items from the perspective of the company’s profitability or to predict their future trends. Analysts should limit themselves to understanding their origin and why, for example, the company needed to write down the goodwill.
3/ INCOME TAX
The corporate income tax line can be difficult to analyse owing to the effects of deferred taxation, the impact of foreign subsidiaries and tax-loss carryforwards. Analysts usually calculate the group’s effective tax rate (i.e. corporate income tax divided by profit before tax), which they monitor over time to assess how well the company has managed its tax affairs. A weak tax rate must be explained. It may be due to the use of tax losses carried forward (due to past difficulties) that will be depleted one day or another. It may also be explained by aggressive tax optimisation schemes which are not risk-free, especially when countries are running high levels of debts and/or deficits and society no longer accepts such behaviour.
In the notes to the accounts, there is a useful table that explains the reconciliation between the theoretical tax rate on companies and the tax rate effectively paid by the company or the group (it is called “tax proof”).
4/ GOODWILL IMPAIRMENT, INCOME FROM ASSOCIATES, MINORITY INTERESTS
Regarding goodwill impairment, the main questions should be: Where does this goodwill come from and why was it depreciated?
Depending on its size, the share of net profits (losses) of associates3 deserves special attention. Where these profits or losses account for a significant part of net income, either they should be separated out into operating, financial and non-recurring items to provide greater insight into the contribution made by the equity-accounted associates, or a separate financial analysis should be carried out of the relevant associate. As a last-resort solution they could be added to EBIT.
Minority interests4 are always an interesting subject and beg the following questions: Where do they come from? Which subsidiaries do they relate to? Do the minority investors finance losses or do they grab a large share of the profits? An analysis of minority interests often proves to be a useful way of working out which subsidiary(ies) generate(s) the group’s profits.
Section 9.3 STANDARD INCOME STATEMENTS (INDIVIDUAL AND CONSOLIDATED ACCOUNTS)
The following tables show two model income statements. The first has been adapted to the needs of non-consolidated (individual) company accounts and is based on the by-nature format. The second is based on the by-function format as it is used in the ArcelorMittal group’s consolidated accounts.
BY-NATURE INCOME STATEMENT – INDIVIDUAL COMPANY ACCOUNTS
BY-FUNCTION INCOME STATEMENT – CONSOLIDATED ACCOUNTS
2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M$ | % | M$ | % | M$ | % | M$ | % | M$ | % | ||
NET SALES | 56,791 | 100.0% | 68,679 | 100.0% | 76,033 | 100.0% | 70,615 | 100.0% | 53,270 | 100.0% | |
− Cost of sales | 50,223 | 88.4% | 60,876 | 88.6% | 67,025 | 88.2% | 67,058 | 95.0% | 50,797 | 95.4% | |
= GROSS MARGIN | 6,568 | 11.6% | 7,803 | 11.4% | 9,008 | 11.8% | 3,557 | 5.0% | 2,473 | 4.6% | |
− Selling and marketing costs6 | 2,202 | 3.9% | 2,369 | 3.4% | 2,469 | 3.2% | 2,355 | 3.3% | 2,022 | 3.8% | |
− General and administrative costs6 | |||||||||||
± Other operating income and expense6 | |||||||||||
= RECURRING OPERATING PROFIT | 4,366 | 7.7% | 5,434 | 7.9% | 6,539 | 8.6% | 1,202 | 1.7% | 451 | 0.8% | |
− Net financial expenses | 2,056 | 3.6% | 875 | 1.3% | 2,210 | 2.9% | 1,554 | 2.2% | 1,190 | 2.2% | |
= CURRENT PROFIT BEFORE TAX | 2,310 | 4.1% | 4,559 | 6.6% | 4,329 | 5.7% | (352) | −0.5% | (739) | −1.4% | |
± Income from associates | 615 | 1.1% | 448 | 0.7% | 652 | 0.9% | 347 | 0.5% | 234 | 0.4% | |
± Non-recurring items | (205) | −0.4% | − | 0.0% | 0.0% | (1,927) | −2.7% | 1,593 | 3.0% | ||
− Goodwill depreciation | − | 0.0% | − | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||
− Income Tax | 986 | 1.7% | 432 | 0.6% | (349) | −0.5% | 459 | 0.7% | 1,666 | 3.1% | |
= Net PROFIT | 1,734 | 3.1% | 4,575 | 6.7% | 5,330 | 7.0% | (2,391) | −3.4% | (578) | −1.1% | |
− Minority interests | (45) | −0.1% | 7 | 0.0% | 181 | 0.2% | 63 | 0.1% | 155 | 0.3% | |
= NET PROFIT ATTRIBUTABLE TO SHAREHOLDERS | 1,779 | 3.1% | 4,568 | 6.7% | 5,149 | 6.8% | (2,454) | −3.5% | (733) | −1.4% | |
Employees | 199,000 | 197,000 | 209,000 | 191,000 | 168,000 |
Lines in blue are found only in consolidated accounts.
Section 9.4 FINANCIAL ASSESSMENT
1/ THE SCISSORS EFFECT
The scissors effect is, first and foremost, the product of a simple phenomenon.
If revenues are growing by 5% p.a. and certain costs are growing at a faster rate, then earnings naturally decrease. If this trend continues, then earnings will decline further each year and ultimately the company will sink into the red. This is what is known as the scissors effect.
Whether or not a scissors effect is identified matters little. What really counts is establishing the causes of the phenomenon. A scissors effect may occur for all kinds of reasons (regulatory developments, intense competition, mismanagement in a sector, etc.) that reflect the higher or lower quality of the company’s strategic position in its market. If it has a strong position, it will be able to pass on any increase in its costs to its customers by raising its selling prices and thus gradually widening its margins.
Where it reduces profits, the scissors effect may be attributable to:
- a degree of increased competition that may prevent a company from passing on sharp increases in its raw materials costs to its customers via its selling prices. For example, a synthetic textile company would find it difficult to incorporate oil price hikes in its selling prices if at the same time the cost of wool or cotton is falling;
- a statutory freeze on selling prices, making it impossible to pass on the rising cost of production factors (e.g. energy prices in some countries, where governments decide on such freezes);
- psychological reluctance to put up prices. For example, when you sell your product at £19.99, you may find it difficult to exceed the £20.00 threshold;
- poor cost control, e.g. where a company does not have a tight grip on its cost base and may not be able to pass rising costs on in full to its selling prices. As a result, the company no longer grows, but its cost base continues to expand.
The impact of trends in the cost of production factors is especially important because these factors represent a key component of the cost price of products. In such cases, analysts have to try to estimate the likely impact of a delayed adjustment in prices. This depends primarily on how the company and its rivals behave and on their relative strength within the marketplace.
But the scissors effect may also work to the company’s benefit, as shown by the last two charts in the following figure.
2/ PITFALLS
A company’s accounts are littered with potential pitfalls, which must be sidestepped to avoid errors of interpretation during an analysis. The main types of potential traps are as follows.
(a) The stability principle (which prevents any simplistic reasoning)
This principle holds that a company’s earnings are much more stable than we would expect. Net income is frequently a modest amount that remains when charges are offset against revenues. Net income represents an equilibrium that is not necessarily upset by external factors. Let’s consider, for instance, a supermarket chain where the net income is roughly equal to the net financial income. It would be a mistake to say that if interest rates decline, then the company’s earnings will be wiped out. The key issue here is whether the company will be able to slightly raise its prices to offset the impact of lower interest rates, without eroding its competitiveness. It will probably be able to do so if all its rivals are in the same boat. But the company may be doomed to fail if more efficient distribution channels exist.
The situation is very similar for champagne houses. A poor harvest drives up the cost of grapes and pushes up the selling price of champagne. Here the key issues are when prices should be increased in view of the competition from sparkling wines, the likely emergence of an alternative product at some point in the future and consumers’ ability to make do without champagne if it is too expensive.
It is important not to repeat the common mistake of establishing a direct link between two parameters and explaining one by trends in the other.
That said, there are limits to the stability principle.
(b) Regulatory changes
These are controls imposed on a company by an authority (usually the government) that generally restricts the “natural” direction in which the company is moving. Examples include an aggressive devaluation, the introduction of a shorter working week or measures to reduce the opening hours of shops.
(c) External factors
Like regulatory changes, these are imposed on the company. That said, they are more common and are specific to the company’s sector of activity, e.g. pressures in a market, arrival (or sudden reawakening) of a very powerful competitor or changes to a collective bargaining agreement.
(d) Pre-emptive action
Pre-emptive action is where a company immediately reflects expectations of an increase in the cost of a production factor by charging higher selling prices. This occurs in the champagne sector where the build-up of pressure in the raw materials market following a poor grape harvest very soon leads to an increase in prices per bottle. Such action is taken even though it will be another two or three years before the champagne comes onto the marketplace.
(e) Inertia effects
Inertia effects are much more common than those we have just described, and they work in the opposite direction. Owing to inertia, a company may struggle to pass on fluctuations in the cost of its production factors by upping its selling prices. For instance, in a sector that is as competitive and has such low barriers to entry as the road haulage business, there is usually a delay before an increase in diesel fuel prices is passed on to customers in the form of higher shipping charges.
(f) Inflation effects
Inflation distorts company earnings because it acts as an incentive for overinvestment and overproduction, particularly when it is high (e.g. during the 1970s and the early 1980s). A company that plans to expand the capacity of a plant four years in the future should decide to build it immediately; it will then save 30–40% of its cost in nominal terms, giving it a competitive advantage in terms of accounting costs. Building up excess inventories is another temptation in high-inflation environments because time increases the value of inventories, thereby offsetting the financial expense involved in carrying them and giving rise to inflation gains in the accounts.
Inflation gives rise to a whole series of similar temptations for artificial gains, and any players opting for a more cautious approach during such periods of madness may find themselves steamrollered out of existence. By refusing to build up their inventories to an excessively high level and missing out on inflation gains, they are unable to pass on a portion of them to consumers, as their competitors do. Consequently, during periods of inflation:
- depreciation and amortisation are in most cases insufficient to cover the replacement cost of an investment, the price of which has risen;
- inventories yield especially large nominal inflation gains where they are slow moving.
Deflation leads to the opposite results.
(g) Capital expenditure and restructuring
It is fairly common for major investments (e.g. the construction of a new plant) to depress operating performance and even lead to operating losses during the first few years after they enter service.
For instance, the construction of a new plant generally leads to:
- additional general and administrative costs such as R&D and launch costs, professional fees, etc.;
- financial costs that are not matched by any corresponding operating revenue until the investment comes on stream (this is a common phenomenon in the hotel sector given the length of the payback periods on investments). In certain cases, they may be capitalised and added to the cost of fixed assets but this is even more dangerous;
- additional personnel cost deriving from the early recruitment of line staff and managers, who have to be in place by the time the new plant enters service;
- lower productivity owing both to the time it takes to get the new plant and equipment running and the inexperience of staff at the new production facilities.
As a result of these factors, some of the investment spending finds its way onto the income statement, which is thus weighed down considerably by the implications of the investment programme.
Conversely, a company may deliberately decide to pursue a policy of underinvestment to enhance its bottom line (so they can be sold at an inflated price) and to maximise the profitability of investments it carried out some time ago. But this type of strategy of maximising margins jeopardises its scope for value creation in the future (it will not create any new product, it will not train sufficient staff to prepare for changes in its business, etc.).
Section 9.5 CASE STUDY: ARCELORMITTAL
Volumes sold by ArcelorMittal were stable from 2016 to 2019 (at 84.6 Mt) but sales varied much more due to variations in the price of steel, and to a lesser extent to the change in scope. This is typical of an industry with high fixed costs in which the slightest imbalance between demand and supply generates major price variations: –10% in 2016, +19% and +13% in 2017 and 2018, –8% in 2019. In 2020 the volumes are down by 18% to 69.1 Mt. This decrease is explained for the most part by the Covid-19 crisis in the first half of 2020, but also for 2.4% by the disposals made by the group. Sales fell by 25%, with prices continuing to fall by 8% in a context of overproduction compared to demand.
The year 2016 marked a turning point compared to the early 2000s with a drop in Chinese steel exports, which was sharply accentuated in 2017, 2018 and then 2019 (62 Mt), under the effect of major capacity reductions, a revival of Chinese domestic demand and the implementation of anti-dumping customs taxes in Europe and the United States. In 2020, the market was totally destabilized by the Covid-19 crisis and the fall in demand.
From 2016 to 2018, ArcelorMittal benefited from a positive scissor effect, the result of the major restructuring undertaken in that year (17% reduction in personnel costs), the evolution of steel sales prices, and its partial integration upstream, which partly protected it from increases in the price of iron ore and coking coal. The operating margin, which was zero in 2015, therefore recovered to 8.6% in 2018.
However, it falls back to 1.7% in 2019 due to a once again negative scissor effect with a stable cost of sales and a 7% decline in sales. The 2019 operating margin is double that of 2015 for identical sales volumes, which shows the productivity gains made. In 2020, ArcelorMittal will save the day by maintaining a marginally positive operating result thanks to drastic cost-cutting measures.
SUMMARY
QUESTIONS
EXERCISES
ANSWERS
NOTES
- 1 Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation.
- 2 In IFRS accounts, rents are broken down into financial costs and depreciation. See Section 7.12.
- 3 For more on associates, see Section 6.1, 1/.
- 4 For more on minority interest, see Section 6.1, 2/.
- 5 Impairment losses on current assets operating and provisions.
- 6 ArcelorMittal does not distinguish between these items in its accounts.
Chapter 10. MARGIN ANALYSIS: RISKS
Costs are not like problems, people do not like them to be fixed
In Chapter 9, we compared the respective growth rates of revenues and costs. In this chapter, we will compare all company costs and key profit indicators as a percentage of sales (or production for companies that experience major swings in their inventories of finished goods and work in progress).
The purpose of this analysis is to avoid extrapolating into the future the rate of earnings growth recorded in the past. Just because profits grew by 30% p.a. for two years as a result of a number of factors does not mean they will necessarily keep growing at the same pace going forward.
Earnings and sales may not grow at the same pace owing to the following factors:
- structural changes in production;
- the scissors effect (see Chapter 9);
- simply a cyclical effect accentuated by the company’s cost structure. This is what we will be examining in more detail in this chapter.
Section 10.1 HOW OPERATING LEVERAGE WORKS
Operating leverage links variation in activity (measured by sales) with changes in result (either operating profit or net income). Operating leverage depends on the level and nature of the breakeven point.
1/ DEFINITION
Breakeven is the level of activity at which total revenue covers total costs. With business running at this level, earnings are thus zero.
Put another way:
- if the company does not reach breakeven (i.e. insufficient sales), the company posts losses;
- if sales are exactly equal to the breakeven point, profits are zero;
- if the company exceeds its breakeven point, it generates a profit.
2/ CALCULATING THE BREAKEVEN POINT
Before the breakeven point can be calculated, it is vital for costs to be divided up into fixed and variable costs. This classification depends on the period under consideration. For instance, it is legitimate to say that:
- in the long term, all costs are variable, irrespective of their nature. If a company is unable to adjust its cost base, it is not a viable company;
- in the very short term (less than three months), almost all costs are fixed, with the exception of certain direct costs (i.e. certain raw materials);
- from a medium-term perspective, certain costs can be considered variable, e.g. indirect personnel cost.
Before starting to calculate a company’s breakeven point, it is wise to define which type of breakeven point is needed. This obvious step is all too commonly forgotten.
For instance, we may want to assess:
- the projected change in the company’s earnings in the event of a partial recession with or without a reduction in the company’s output;
- the sensitivity of earnings to particularly strong business levels at the end of the year;
- the breakeven point implied by a strategic plan, particularly that resulting from the launch of a new business venture.
The breakeven point can be presented graphically:
The breakeven point is the level of sales at which fixed costs are equal to the contribution margin, which is defined as the difference between sales and variable costs. At the breakeven point, the following equation therefore holds true:
where Sales0 is the level of sales at the breakeven point and m is the contribution margin expressed as a percentage of sales.
In 2021, Exane BNP Paribas estimated that the typical European listed group with a revenue of €100 had €28.5 of fixed costs, €61.1 of variable costs and an operating profit of €10.4. Accordingly, a decrease of 1% in turnover results in a decrease of 3.7% in operating profit. The operating leverage measures the sensitivity of operating result to changes in sales. In this example it is 3.7% / 1% = 3.7.
The above figure rather simplifies things. In fact, fixed costs are not fixed regardless of the level of activity, they are fixed by range of activity and rise or decline in stages.
Some use the term break-even point to measure the moment in the year when a company starts to make profits. Thus, a company with a net income representing 1.1% of its sales will be deemed to start working for its shareholders only from 28 December, i.e. 4 days (1.1% × 365) before the end of the year. This is at most a colourful way of speaking, especially to people with no management skills. In fact, the sales made in the last four days of the year in our example do not constitute full profit because the company still incurs expenses. This is therefore a second abuse of language!
3/ THREE DIFFERENT BREAKEVEN POINTS
The breakeven point may be calculated before or after payments to the company’s providers of funds. As a result, three different breakeven points may be calculated:
- operating breakeven, which is a function of the company’s fixed and variable production costs that determine the stability of operating profit1;
- financial breakeven, which takes into account the interest costs incurred by the company that determine the stability of profit before tax and non-recurring items;
- total breakeven, which takes into account all the returns required by the company’s lenders and shareholders.
Operating breakeven is a dangerous concept because it disregards any return on capital invested in the company, while financial breakeven understates the actual breakeven point because it does not reflect any return on equity, which is the basis of all value creation.
Consequently, we recommend that readers calculate the breakeven point at which the company is able to generate not a zero net income but a positive net income high enough to provide shareholders with the return they require. To this end, we need to adjust the company’s cost base by the profit before tax expected by shareholders. Below this breakeven point, the company might generate an accounting profit but will not (totally) satisfy the profitability requirements of its shareholders.
Interest charges represent a fixed cost at a given level of sales (and thus capital requirement). A company that experiences significant volatility in its operating profit may thus compensate partially for this instability through modest financial expense, i.e. by pursuing a strategy of limited debt. In any event, earnings instability is greater for a highly indebted company owing to its financial expense, which represents a fixed cost.
To illustrate these concepts in concrete terms, we have prepared the following table calculating the various breakeven points for ArcelorMittal:2
Based on these considerations, we see that the operating leverage depends on four key parameters:
- the three factors determining the stability of operating profit, i.e. the stability of sales, the structure of production costs and the company’s position relative to its breakeven point;
- the level of interest expense, which is itself a function of the debt policy pursued by the company.
From our experience we have seen that, in practice, a company is in an unstable position when its sales are less than 10% above its financial breakeven point. Sales 20% above the financial breakeven point reflect a relatively stable situation and sales more than 20% above the financial breakeven point for a given business structure indicate an exceptional and comfortable situation.
The 2008–2009 and the Covid-19 economic crisis have demonstrated that being 20% above the breakeven point is not enough in cyclical sectors where activity can suddenly collapse by 20%, 30% or 40% as in the cement, steel or car industries.
Section 10.2 A MORE REFINED ANALYSIS PROVIDES GREATER INSIGHT
1/ ANALYSIS OF PAST SITUATIONS
Breakeven analysis (also known as cost–volume–profit analysis) may be used for three different purposes:
- to analyse earnings stability taking into account the characteristics of the market and the structure of production costs;
- to assess a company’s real earnings power;
- to analyse the difference between forecasts and actual performance.
(a) Analysis of earnings stability
Here the level of the breakeven point in absolute terms matters much less than the company’s position relative to its breakeven point.
When a company is close to its breakeven point, a small change in sales triggers a steep change in its net income, so a strong rate of earnings growth may simply reflect a company’s proximity to its breakeven point.
Consider a company with the following manufacturing and sales characteristics:
Total fixed costs | = | €200,000 |
Variable costs per unit | = | €50 |
Unit selling price | = | €100 |
Its breakeven point stands at 4,000 units. To make a profit, the company therefore has to sell at least 4,000 units.
The following table shows a comparison of the relative increases (or reductions) in sales and earnings at five different sales volumes:
Sales volumes | Net income | Sensitivity | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number of units sold | % Increase compared to previous level (A) | % Decrease compared to previous level | Amount | % Increase compared to previous level (B) | % Decrease compared to previous level | (B)/(A) |
4,000 | 20% | 0 | 100% | |||
5,000 | 25% | 16.7% | 50,000 | Infinite | 50% | Infinite |
6,000 | 20% | 16.7% | 100,000 | 100% | 37.5% | 5 |
7,200 | 20% | 16.7% | 160,000 | 60% | 31% | 3 |
8,640 | 20% | 232,000 | 45% | 2.25 |
This table clearly shows that the closer the breakeven point, the higher the sensitivity of a company’s earnings to changes in sales volumes. This phenomenon holds true both above and below the breakeven point.
Consequently, breakeven analysis helps put into perspective a very strong rate of earnings growth during a good year. Rather than getting carried away with one good performance, analysts should attempt to assess the risks of subsequent downturns in reported profits.
For instance, the two spirits groups Pernod Ricard and Remy Cointreau posted similar sales trends but different earnings trends during 2020 because their proximity to breakeven point was very different. Question 8 on page 178 will ask for your comment on this table:
Sales | Operating income | |
---|---|---|
Pernod Ricard | €8,448m (–8.0%) | €2,260m (–12%) |
Remy Cointreau | €1,025m (–9.0%) | €214m (–22%) |
Likewise, the sensitivity of a company’s earnings to changes in sales depends, to a great extent, on its cost structure. The higher a company’s fixed costs, the greater the volatility of its earnings,
For example, in 2020, the decrease in earnings of Nestlé was similar to its turnover (–8.3% vs. –8.9% respectively). This seems consistent for an industry where costs are mainly variable.
Sales | Operating income | |
---|---|---|
Nestlé | CHF 84.3bn (–8.9%) | CHF14.9bn (–8.3%) |
Bureau Veritas | €4.6bn (–9.8%) | €615m (–26.0%) |
Vinci | €43.2bn (–10.0%) | €2.9bn (–50.1%) |
In contrast, Vinci posted a drop by 50% in operating income for a sales decrease of only 10%; this is because fixed costs are much higher for construction companies. Bureau Veritas’s situation, –26% for operating income with a sales decrease of 10%, is sandwiched between the two extremes of packaged food and construction.
In the event of a jump in activity, Vinci’s results will increase much faster than Nestlé’s, given the importance of fixed costs for the construction company. Vinci therefore has a high level of operating leverage (or operational leverage).
(b) Assessment of normal earnings power
The operating leverage, which accelerates the pace of growth or contraction in a company’s earnings triggered by changes in its sales performance, means that the significance of income statement-based margin analysis should be kept in perspective.
The reason for this is that an exceptionally high level of profits may be attributable to exceptionally good conditions that will not last. In such conditions good performance does not necessarily indicate a high level of structural profitability. This held true for a large number of steel companies in 2021.
Consequently, an assessment of a company’s earnings power deriving from its structural profitability drivers needs to take into account the operating leverage and cyclical trends, i.e. are we currently in an expansion phase of the cycle?
(c) Variance analysis
Breakeven analysis helps analysts account for differences between the budgeted and actual performance of a company over a given period.
The following table helps illustrate this:
Value in absolute terms | Structure | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Budget | Actual (A) | Change | % Difference | Theoretical cost structure (B) | Difference (B) − (A) | ||||||
Sales | 240 | 180 | −60 | −25% | 180 | − | |||||
Variable costs | 200 | 156 | −44 | −22% | 150 | −6 | |||||
Contribution margin | 40 | 24 | −16 | −40% | 30 | −6 | |||||
Margin | 16.7% | 13.3% | 16.7% | ||||||||
Fixed costs | 20 | 24 | +4 | +20% | 20 | +4 | |||||
Earnings | 20 | 0 | -20 | −100% | 10 | −10 |
This table shows the collapse in the company’s earnings of 20 is attributable to:
- the fall in sales (−25%);
- the surge in fixed costs (+20%);
- the surge in variable costs as a proportion of sales from 83.33% to 86.7%.
The cost structure effect accounts for 50% of the earnings decline (4 in higher fixed costs and 6 in lower contribution margin), with the impact of sales contraction accounting for the remaining 50% of the decline (10 lost in contribution margin: 30 against 40).
2/ STRATEGIC ANALYSIS
(a) Industrial strategy
A large number of companies operating in cyclical sectors made a mistake by raising their breakeven point through heavy investment. In fact, they should have been seeking to achieve the lowest possible operating leverage and, above all, the most flexible possible cost structure to curb the effects of major swings in business levels on their profitability.
For instance, integration has often turned out to be a costly mistake in the construction sector. Only companies that have maintained a lean cost structure through a strategy of outsourcing have been able to survive the successive cycles of boom and bust in the sector.
In highly capital-intensive sectors and those with high fixed costs (pulp, metal tubing, cement, etc.), it is in companies’ interests to use equity financing. Such financing does not accentuate the impact of ups and downs in their sales on their bottom line through the leverage effect of debt, but in fact attenuates their impact on earnings.
When a company finds itself in a tight spot, its best financial strategy is to reduce its financial breakeven point by raising fresh equity rather than debt capital, since the latter actually increases its breakeven point, as we have seen. As an example of this policy, ArcelorMittal raised equity in May 2020.
If the outlook for its market points to strong sales growth in the long term, a company may decide to pick up the gauntlet and invest. In doing so, it raises its breakeven point, while retaining substantial room for manoeuvre. It may thus decide to take on additional debt.
As we shall see in Chapter 35, the only real difference in terms of cost between debt and equity financing can be analysed in terms of a company’s breakeven point.
(b) Restructuring
When a company falls below its breakeven point, it sinks into the red. It can return to the black only by increasing its sales, lowering its breakeven point or boosting its margins.
Increasing its sales is only a possibility if the company has real strategic clout in its marketplace. Otherwise, it is merely delaying the inevitable: sales will grow at the expense of the company’s profitability, thereby creating an illusion of improvement for a while but inevitably precipitating cash problems.
Lowering the breakeven point entails restructuring industrial and commercial operations, e.g. modernisation, reductions in production capacity, cuts in overheads. The danger with this approach is that management may fall into the trap of believing that it is only reducing the company’s breakeven point when actually it is shrinking its business. In many cases, a vicious circle sets in, as the measures taken to lower breakeven trigger a major business contraction, compelling the company to lower its breakeven point further, thereby sparking another business contraction, and so on. See Blackberry or Yahoo as examples.
(c) Analysis of cyclical risks
As we stated earlier, there is no such thing as an absolute breakeven point – there are as many breakeven points as there are periods of analysis. But first and foremost, the breakeven point is a dynamic rather than static concept. If sales fall by 5%, the mathematical formulas will suggest that earnings may decline by 20%, 30% or more, depending on the exact circumstances. In fact, experience shows that earnings usually fall much further than breakeven analysis predicts.
A contraction in market volumes is often accompanied by a price war, leading to a decline in the contribution margin. In this situation, fixed costs may increase as customers are slower to pay; inventories build up leading to higher interest costs and higher operating provisions. All these factors may trigger a larger reduction in earnings than that implied by the mathematical formulae of breakeven analysis.
Consequently, breakeven point increases while sales decline, as many recent examples show. Any serious forecasting thus requires modelling based on a thorough analysis of the situation. There are a number of examples of this (Toys “R” Us, JCPenney, etc.).
Businesses such as shipping and sugar production, which require substantial production capacity that takes time to set up, periodically experience production gluts or shortages. As readers are aware, if supply is inflexible, a volume glut (or shortage) of just 5% may be sufficient to trigger far larger price reductions (or hikes) (i.e. 30%, 50% and sometimes even more). Europeans witnessed this in 2018, where sugar production capacity increased following the elimination of quotas.
Here again, an analysis of competition (its strength, patterns and financial structure) is a key factor when assessing the scale of a crisis.
Section 10.3 FROM ANALYSIS TO FORECASTING: THE CONCEPT OF NORMATIVE MARGIN
A great deal of the analysis of financial statements for past periods is carried out for the purpose of preparing financial projections. These forecasts are based on the company’s past and the decisions taken by management. This section contains some advice about how best to go about this type of exercise.
All too often, it is not sufficient to merely set up a spreadsheet, click on the main income statement items determining EBITDA (or operating profit if depreciation and amortisation are also to be forecast) and then grow all of these items at a fixed rate. This may be reasonable in itself, but implies unreasonable assumptions when applied systematically. Trees do not grow to the sky!
Instead, readers should:
- gain a full understanding of the company and especially the key drivers impacting margins;
- build growth scenarios, as well as possible reactions by the competition, the environment, international economic conditions, etc.;
- draw up projections and analyse the coherence of the company’s economic and strategic policy. For example, is its investment sufficient?
To this end, financial analysts have developed the concept of normalised earnings, i.e. a given company in a given sector should achieve an operating margin of x%.
This type of approach is entirely consistent with financial theory, which states that in each sector profitability should be commensurate with the sector’s risks and that, sooner or later, these margins will be achieved, even though adjustments may take considerable time (i.e. five years or even more, in any case much longer than they do in the financial markets).
What factors influence the size of these margins? This question can be answered only in qualitative terms and by performing an analysis of the strategic strengths and weaknesses of a company, which are all related to the concept of barriers to entry:
- the degree of maturity of the business;
- the strength of competition and quality of other market players;
- the importance of commercial factors, such as market share, brands, distribution networks, etc.
- the type of industrial process and incremental productivity gains.
This approach is helpful because it takes into consideration the economic underpinnings of margins. Its drawback lies in the fact that analysts may be tempted to overlook the company’s actual margin and concentrate more on idealised future theoretical margins.
We cannot overemphasise the importance of explicitly stating and verifying the significance of all forecasts.
Section 10.4 CASE STUDY: ARCELORMITTAL4
The information4 published by ArcelorMittal does not allow the external analyst to break down costs precisely into fixed and variable costs, despite the breakdown given in the appendix to the accounts of the cost of sales item (which accounts for between 88% and 95% of revenues). We have therefore assumed in the table on page 170 that raw material consumption (about 65% of cost of sales), logistics costs and other costs are variable, which does not seem shocking for a processing company. Other expenses were considered fixed (production personnel, administrative and commercial costs, depreciation).
According to our estimates, ArcelorMittal managed to reduce its fixed costs in parallel with the decrease in its turnover until 2016 (–35% for the former and –33% for the latter), which is an excellent industrial performance. The group was getting dangerously close to its operating breakeven point in 2015 (only 4% above) due to an erosion of its contribution margin that went from 25% to 24% over the period between 2012 and 2015. But in 2016, the group launched a major cost reduction programme over three years. As a result, its contribution margin climbed back to 29/30% in 2016–2018, before falling back to 22% in 2019 and 25% in 2020. It is true that the economic context was initially also more favourable with an increase in steel prices in Europe and the United States, thanks to the implementation of customs barriers against Chinese dumping and the reduction of Chinese exports, before deteriorating again with the Covid-19 crisis.
In 2020 ArcelorMittal remains above its operating breakeven point (+5%). The group is, however, below its financial breakeven point and does not cover the profitability requirement of its shareholders (the group is loss making).
SUMMARY
QUESTIONS
EXERCISES
ANSWERS
BIBLIOGRAPHY
NOTES
- 1 A cash operating breakeven point can be computed for which EBITDA equals zero, as only cash operating expenses are taken into account.
- 2 We analyse the table for ArcelorMittal in Section 10.4 of this chapter. We have assumed that costs of sales and selling and marketing costs are all variable costs and that other operating costs are fixed. This is evidently a rough cut but nevertheless gives a reasonable estimate.
- 3 For ArcelorMittal, we have assumed a cost of equity (see Chapter 19) of 15% in 2016–2017 12% thereafter, and a tax rate between 25% and 28%.
- 4 The breakeven table for ArcelorMittal is on page 170.
Chapter 11. WORKING CAPITAL AND CAPITAL EXPENDITURES
Building the future
As we saw in the standard financial analysis, all value creation requires investment. In finance, investment means creating either new fixed assets or working capital. The latter, often high in Continental Europe, deserves some explanation.
Section 11.1 THE NATURE OF WORKING CAPITAL
Every analyst intuitively tries to establish a percentage relationship between a company’s working capital and one or more of the measures of the volume of its business activities. In most cases, the chosen measure is annual turnover or sales.
The ratio:
reflects the fact that the operating cycle generates an operating working capital that includes:
- capital “frozen” in the form of inventories, representing procurement and production costs that have not yet resulted in the sale of the company’s products;
- funds “frozen” in customer receivables, representing sales that customers have not yet paid for;
- accounts payable that the company owes to suppliers.
The balance of these three items represents the net amount of money tied up in the operating cycle of the company. In other words, if the working capital turnover ratio is 25% (which is high), this means that 25% of the company’s annual sales volume is “frozen” in inventories and customer receivables not financed by supplier credit. This also means that, at any moment, the company needs to have on hand funds equal to a quarter of its annual sales to pay suppliers and employee salaries for materials and work performed on products or services that have not yet been manufactured, sold or paid for by customers.
Since the beginning of this century, the working capital of large listed European groups has had a tendency to shrink, as illustrated in the following table:
WORKING CAPITAL EXPRESSED AS A % OF SALES (EUROPEAN LISTED GROUPS)
Sector | 2005 | 2010 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021e | 2022e |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aerospace & Defence | −17% | −21% | −17% | −19% | −21% | −24% | −22% | −20% | −18% | −18% |
Automotive | 6% | 2% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 7% |
Beverages | 12% | 1% | 0% | 5% | −7% | −7% | −1% | −8% | −6% | −7% |
Building Materials | 21% | 15% | 17% | 17% | 15% | 17% | 17% | 17% | 18% | 17% |
Business Services | 6% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% |
Capital Goods | 13% | 7% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 8% | 7% |
Chemicals | 22% | 19% | 18% | 20% | 18% | 19% | 17% | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Consumer Goods | 24% | 17% | 17% | 20% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 11% | 12% | 12% |
Food & HPC | 6% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Food Retail | −7% | −10% | −13% | −12% | −13% | −13% | −12% | −13% | −13% | −13% |
General Retail | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
IT Hardware | 10% | 6% | 12% | 14% | 9% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 13% |
IT Services | −4% | −10% | −10% | −8% | −10% | −11% | −12% | −16% | −14% | −13% |
Leisure & Hotels | −14% | −10% | −10% | −8% | −8% | −8% | −8% | −10% | −8% | −7% |
Luxury Goods | 16% | 18% | 25% | 24% | 21% | 19% | 19% | 25% | 22% | 21% |
Media | −19% | −17% | −17% | −16% | −14% | −13% | −14% | −18% | −15% | −14% |
Medtech & Services | 7% | 9% | 12% | 12% | 9% | 9% | 13% | 11% | 11% | 11% |
Mining | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 9% | 7% | 7% |
Oil & Gas | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Paper & Packaging | 24% | 12% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 6% | 6% |
Software | 2% | −5% | −8% | −10% | −9% | −10% | −8% | −10% | −9% | −8% |
Steel | 16% | 18% | 11% | 13% | 13% | 15% | 14% | 16% | 15% | 15% |
Telecom Operators | −13% | −14% | −5% | −7% | −8% | −8% | −6% | −4% | −3% | −1% |
Transport & Infrastructure | −1% | −5% | −6% | −5% | −5% | −6% | −5% | −6% | −5% | −6% |
Utilities | −5% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 2% |
Source: Exane BNP Paribas
As we will see in Section 11.2, working capital is often expressed as a number of days of sales. This figure is derived by multiplying a percentage ratio by 365. In our example, a ratio of 25% indicates that working capital totals around 91 days of the company’s sales.
1/ STEADY BUSINESS, PERMANENT WORKING CAPITAL
Calculated from the balance sheet, a company’s working capital is the balance of the accounts directly related to the operating cycle. These amounts are very liquid; that is, they will either be collected or paid within a very short period of time.
No matter when the books are closed, the balance sheet always shows working capital, although the amount changes depending on the statement date. The only exceptions are the rare companies whose operating cycle actually generates cash rather than absorbs it.
Working capital is liquid in the sense that every element of it disappears in the ordinary course of business. Raw materials and inventories are consumed in the manufacturing process. Work in progress is gradually transformed into finished products. Finished products are (usually) sold. Receivables are (ordinarily) collected and become cash, bank balances, etc. Similarly, debts to suppliers become outflows of cash when they are paid.
As a result, if the production cycle is less than a year (which is usually the case), all of the components of working capital at the statement date will disappear in the course of the following year. But at the next statement date, other operating assets will have taken their place. This is why we view working capital as a permanent requirement.
Even if each component of working capital has a relatively short lifetime, the operating cycles are such that the contents of each are replaced by new contents. As a result, if the level of business activity is held constant, the various working capital accounts remain at a constant level.
All in all, at any given point in time, a company’s working capital is indeed liquid. It represents the difference between certain current assets and certain current liabilities. But thinking in terms of “permanent working capital” introduces a radically different concept. It suggests that if business is stable, current (liquid) operating assets and current operating liabilities will be renewed and new funds will be tied up, constituting a permanent capital requirement as surely as fixed assets are a permanent capital requirement.
2/ SEASONAL BUSINESS ACTIVITY, PARTLY SEASONAL REQUIREMENT
When a business is seasonal, purchases, production and sales do not take place evenly throughout the year. As a result, working capital also varies during the course of the year, expanding then contracting.
The working capital of a seasonal business never falls to zero. Whether the company sells canned vegetables or raincoats, a minimum level of inventories is always needed to carry the company over to the next production cycle.
In our experience, companies in seasonal businesses often pay too much attention to the seasonal aspect of their working capital and ignore the fact that a significant part of it is permanent. As some costs are fixed, so are some parts of the working capital.
We have observed that in some very seasonal businesses, such as toys, the peak working capital is only twice the minimum. This means that half of the working capital is permanent, the other half is seasonal.
3/ CONCLUSION: PERMANENT WORKING CAPITAL AND THE COMPANY’S ONGOING NEEDS
Approximately 30% of all companies close their books at a date other than 31 December. They choose these dates because that is when the working capital shown on their balance sheets is lowest. This is pure window dressing. Bordeaux vineyards close on 30 September, Caribbean car rental companies on 30 April.
A company in trouble uses trade credit to the maximum possible extent. In this case, you must restate working capital by eliminating trade credit that is in excess of normal levels. Similarly, if inventory is unusually high at the end of the year because the company speculated that raw material prices would rise, then the excess over normal levels should be eliminated in the calculation of permanent working capital. Lastly, to avoid giving the impression that the company is too cash-rich, some companies make an extra effort to pay their suppliers before the end of the year. This is more akin to investing cash balances than to managing working capital.
Although the working capital on the balance sheet at year end can usually not be used as an indicator of the company’s permanent requirement, its year-to-year change can still be informative. Calculated at the same date every year, there should be no seasonal impact. Analysing how the requirement has changed from year end to year end can shed light on whether the company’s operations are improving or deteriorating.
You are therefore faced with a choice:
- if the company publishes quarterly financial statements, you can take the permanent working capital to be the lowest of the quarterly balances and the average working capital to be the average of the figures for each of the four quarters;
- if the company publishes only year-end statements, you must reason in terms of year-to-year trends and comparisons with competitors.1
Section 11.2 WORKING CAPITAL TURNOVER RATIOS
As financial analysis consists of uncovering hidden realities, let’s simulate reality to help us understand the analytical tools.
Working capital accounts are composed of uncollected sales, unsold production and unpaid-for purchases, in other words, the business activities that took place during the days preceding the statement date. Specifically:
- if customers pay in 15 days, receivables represent the last 15 days of sales;
- if the company pays suppliers in 30 days, accounts payable represent the last 30 days of purchases;
- if the company stores raw materials for three weeks before consuming them in production, the inventory of raw materials represents the last three weeks of purchases.
These are the principles. Naturally, the reality is more complex, because:
- payment periods can change;
- business is often seasonal, so the year-end balance sheet may not be a real picture of the company;
- payment terms are not the same for all suppliers or all customers;
- the manufacturing process is not the same for all products.
Nevertheless, working capital turnover ratios calculated on the basis of accounting balances represent an attempt to see the reality behind the figures. But let’s not delude ourselves. At the very best the external analyst will arrive at an approximate estimation of the company’s payment periods rather than its actual payment periods. Nevertheless, the development of these ratios over several years will provide a reliable trend.
1/ THE MENU OF RATIOS
(a) Days’ sales outstanding (DSO)
The days’ sales outstanding (or days/receivables) ratio measures the average payment terms the company grants its customers (or the average actual payment period). It is calculated by dividing the receivables balance by the company’s average daily sales, as follows:
As the receivables on the balance sheet are shown inclusive of VAT, for consistency, sales must be shown on the same basis. But the sales shown on the profit and loss statement are exclusive of VAT. You must therefore increase them by the applicable VAT rate for the products the company sells or by an average rate if it sells products taxed at different rates.
Receivables are calculated as follows:
(b) Days’ payables outstanding (DPO)
The days/payables ratio measures the average payment terms granted to the company by its suppliers (or the average actual payment period). It is calculated by dividing accounts payable by average daily purchases, as follows:
Accounts payable are calculated as follows:
To ensure consistency, purchases are valued inclusive of VAT. They are calculated as follows:
The amounts shown on the profit and loss statement must be increased by the appropriate VAT rate.
When the figure for annual purchases is not available (mainly when the income statement is published in the by-function format), the days’ payables ratio is approximated as:
(c) Days’ inventory outstanding (DIO)
The significance of the inventory turnover ratios depends on the quality of the available accounting information. If it is detailed enough, you can calculate true turnover ratios. If not, you will have to settle for approximations that compare dissimilar data.
You can start by calculating an overall turnover ratio, not meaningful in an absolute sense, but useful in analysing trends:
Depending on the available accounting information, you can also calculate the turnover of each component of inventory, in particular raw materials and goods held for resale, and distil the following turnover ratios:
- Days of raw material, reflecting the number of days of purchases the inventory represents or, viewed the other way round, the number of days necessary for raw materials on the balance sheet to be consumed:
- Days of goods held for resale, reflecting the period between the time the company purchases goods and the time it resells them:
- Days of finished goods inventory, reflecting the time it takes the company to sell the products it manufactures, and calculated with respect to cost of goods sold:
- If cost of goods sold is unavailable, it is calculated with respect to the sales price:
Days of work in progress, reflecting the time required for work in progress and semi-finished goods to be completed – in other words, the length of the production cycle:
For companies that present their profit and loss statement by nature, this last ratio can be calculated only from internal sources as cost of goods sold does not appear as such on the P&L. The calculation is therefore easier for companies that use the by-function presentation for their profit and loss statement (cost of sales).
2/ THE LIMITS OF RATIO ANALYSIS
Remember that, in calculating the foregoing ratios, you must follow two rules:
- make sure the basis of comparison is the same: sales price or production cost, inclusive or exclusive of VAT;
- compare outstandings in the balance sheet with their corresponding cash flows.
Turnover ratios have their limitations:
- they can be completely misleading if the business of the company is seasonal. In this case, the calculated figures will be irrelevant. To take an extreme example, imagine a company that makes all of its sales in a single month. If it grants payment terms of one month, its number of days’ receivables at the end of that month will be 365;
- they provide no breakdown – unless more detailed information is available – of the turnover of the components of each asset (or liability) item related to the operating cycle. For example, receivables might include receivables from private-sector customers, international customers and government agencies. These three categories can have very different collection periods (government agencies, for instance, are known to pay late).
You must ask yourself what degree of precision you want to achieve in your analysis of the company. If a general idea is enough, you might be satisfied with average ratios, as calculated above, after verifying that:
- the business is not too seasonal;
- if it is seasonal, then the available data refer to the same point in time during the year. If this is the case, we advise you to express the ratios in terms of a percentage (receivables/sales), which does not imply a direct link with actual payment conditions.
If you need a more detailed analysis, you will have to look at the actual business volumes in the period just prior to the statement date. In this case, the daily sales figure will not be the annual sales divided by 365, but the last quarter’s sales divided by 90, the last two months divided by 60, etc.
If you must perform an in-depth audit of outstandings in the balance sheet, averages are not enough. You must compare outstandings with the transactions that gave rise to them.
Section 11.3 READING BETWEEN THE LINES OF WORKING CAPITAL
Evaluating working capital is an important part of an analyst’s job, which is not always made easy by financial or accounting optimisation techniques (factoring, reverse-factoring and securitisation covered in Chapter 21) that reduce working capital. The analyst will have to try to detect them in order to establish an accurate and effective representation of the initial situation.
1/ GROWTH OF THE COMPANY
In principle, the ratio of working capital to annual sales should remain stable.
If the permanent requirement equals 25% of annual sales and sales grow from €100m to €140m, the working capital requirement should grow by €10m (€40m × 25%).
Growth in business volume causes an increase in working capital. This increase appears, either implicitly or explicitly, in the cash flow statement.
We might be tempted to think that working capital does not grow as fast as sales because certain items, such as minimum inventory levels, are not necessarily proportional to the level of business volume. Experience shows, however, that growth very often causes a sharp, sometimes poorly controlled, increase in working capital at least proportional to the growth in the company’s sales volume.
In fact, a growing company is often confronted with working capital that grows faster than sales, for various reasons:
- management sometimes neglects to manage working capital rigorously, concentrating instead on strategy and on increasing sales;
- management often tends to integrate vertically, both upstream and downstream. Consequently, structural changes to working capital are introduced as it starts growing much more rapidly than sales, as we will explain later on.
When a company is growing, the increase in working capital constitutes a real use of funds, just as surely as capital expenditures do. For this reason, increases in working capital must be analysed and projected with equal care.
Efficient companies are characterised by controlled growth in working capital. Indeed, successful expansion often depends on the following two conditions:
- ensuring that the growth in working capital tracks the growth in sales rather than zooming ahead of it;
- creating a corporate culture that strives to contain working capital. If working capital grows unchecked, sooner or later it will lead to serious financial difficulties and compromise the company’s independence.
Today, companies faced with slower growth in business manage working capital strictly through just-in-time inventory management, greater use of outsourcing, digitalisation of customer and supplier relationship management, financial incentives for salespeople linked to customers’ payments, etc. (as we will see in Chapter 49).
2/ RECESSION
By analysing the working capital of a company facing a sudden drop in its sales, we can see that it reacts in stages.
Initially, the company does not adjust its production levels. Instead, it tries other ways to shore up sales. The recession also leads to difficulty in controlling accounts receivable, because customers start having financial difficulties and stretch out their payments over time. The company’s cash situation deteriorates, and it has trouble honouring its commercial obligations, so it secures (or forces, especially as year-end approaches) more favourable payment terms from its suppliers. At the end of this first phase, working capital – the balance between the various items affected by divergent forces – stabilises at a higher level. This situation was experienced in particular by car manufacturers in late 2020.
In the second phase, the company begins to adopt measures to adjust its operating cycle to its new level of sales. It cuts back on production, trims raw material inventories and ratchets customer payment terms down to normal levels. By limiting purchases, accounts payable also decline. These measures, salutary in the short term, have the paradoxical effect of inflating working capital because certain items remain stubbornly high while accounts payable decline.
As a result, the company produces (and sells) below capacity, causing unit costs to rise and the bottom line to deteriorate.
Finally, in the third phase, the company returns to a sound footing:
- sales surpass production;
- the cap on purchases has stabilised raw material inventories. When purchases return to their normal level, the company again benefits from a “normal” level of supplier credit.
Against this background, working capital stabilises at a low level that is once again proportional to sales, but only after a crisis that might last as long as a year.
It is important to recognise that any contraction strategy, regardless of the method chosen, requires a certain period of psychological adjustment. Management must be convinced that the company is moving from a period of expansion to a period of recession. This psychological change may take several weeks, but once it is accomplished, the company can:
- decrease purchases;
- adjust production to actual sales;
- reduce supplier credit which the company had tried to maximise. Of course, this slows down the reduction in working capital.
We have seldom seen a company take less than nine months to significantly reduce its working capital and improve the bottom line (unless it liquidates inventories at fire-sale prices).
3/ VALUE CHAIN INTEGRATION STRATEGIES
Companies that expand vertically by acquiring suppliers or distributors lengthen their production cycle. In so doing, they increase their value added. But this very process also increases their working capital because the increased value added is incorporated in the various line items that make up working capital, notably receivables and finished goods inventories. Conversely, accounts payable reflect purchases made further upstream and therefore contain less value added. So they become proportionately lower.
4/ NEGATIVE WORKING CAPITAL
The operating cycles of companies with negative working capital are such that, thanks to a favourable timing mismatch, they collect funds prior to disbursing some payments. There are two basic scenarios:
- supplier credit is much greater than inventory turnover, while at the same time customers pay quickly, in some cases in cash: food retailing, e-commerce companies, motorways, companies with very short production cycles like newspaper or bread companies, companies whose suppliers are in a position of such weakness – printers or hauliers that face stiff competition, for example – that they are forced to offer inordinately long payment terms to their customers;
- customers pay in advance. This is the case for companies that work on military contracts, travel agencies, collective catering companies, companies that sell subscriptions, etc. Nevertheless, these companies are sometimes required to lock up their excess cash for as long as the customer has not yet “consumed” the corresponding service. In this case, negative working capital may offer a way of earning significant investment income (on resulting treasury placement) rather than presenting a source of funding that can be freely used by the firm to finance its operations.
A low or negative working capital is a boon to a company looking to expand without recourse to external capital. Efficient companies, in particular in mass-market retailing, all benefit from low or negative working capital. Put another way, certain companies are adept at using intercompany credit to their best advantage.
The presence of negative working capital can, however, lead to management errors. We once saw an industrial group that was loathe to sell a loss-making division because it had a negative working capital. Selling the division would have shored up the group’s profitability but would also have created a serious cash management problem, because the negative working capital of the unprofitable division was financing the working capital of the profitable divisions. Short-sightedness blinded the company to everything but the cash management problem it would have had immediately after the disposal. Recurring losses were disregarded.
We have seen companies with negative working capital, losing money at the operating level, that were able to survive because of a strong growth in sales. Consequently, inflows generated by increasingly negative working capital with growth in revenues allowed them to pay for the operating deficit. The wake-up call is pretty tough when growth slows down and payment difficulties appear. Unsurprisingly, no banker is keen to lend money in this scenario.
5/ WORKING CAPITAL AS AN EXPRESSION OF BALANCE OF POWER
Economists have tried to understand the theoretical justification for intercompany credit, as represented by working capital. To begin with, they have found that there are certain minimum technical turnaround times. For example, a customer must verify that the delivery corresponds to their order and that the invoice is correct. Some time is also necessary to actually effect the payment.
But this explains only a small portion of intercompany credit, which varies greatly from one country to another:
Several factors can explain the disparity:
- Cultural differences: in Germanic countries, the law stipulates that the title does not pass to the buyer until the seller is paid. This makes generous payment terms much less attractive for the buyer, because as long as the supplier is not paid, the goods delivered cannot be processed.
- Historical factors: in France, Italy and Spain, bank credit was restricted for a long time. Companies whose businesses were not subject to credit restrictions (building, exports, energy, etc.) used their bank borrowing capacity to support companies subject to the restrictions by granting them generous payment terms. Tweaking payment terms was also a way of circumventing price controls in the Mediterranean countries.
- Technical factors: in the USA, suppliers often offer two-part trade credit, where a substantial discount is offered for relatively early payment, such as a 2% discount for payment made within 10 days. Most buyers take this discount. This discount explains the low level of accounts payable in US groups’ balance sheets. As a by-product, failure of a buyer to take this discount could serve as a very strong and early signal of financial distress.
Furthermore, Delaunay and Dietsch (1999) have shown that supplier credit acts as a financial shock absorber for companies in difficulty. For commercial reasons, suppliers feel compelled to support companies whose collateral or financial strength is insufficient (or has become insufficient) to borrow from banks. Suppliers know that they will not have complete control over payment terms. They have unwittingly become bankers and, like bankers, they attempt to limit payment terms on the basis of the back-up represented by the customer’s assets and capital.
That said, it is unhealthy for companies to offer overly generous payment terms to their customers. By so doing, they run a credit risk. Even though the corporate credit manager function is more and more common, even in small companies, credit managers are not in the best position to appreciate and manage this risk. Moreover, intercompany credit is one of the causes of the domino effect in corporate bankruptcies.
How else can we explain why 16 of the 41 non-financial groups in the Eurostoxx 50 in 2019 enjoyed negative working capital requirements, including Orange, Airbus, Unilever, AB InBev and Air Liquide!
The development of reverse factoring (see Section 21.3, 2/) is another (more positive) expression of the balance of power: the client, a large group, gives its smaller suppliers the benefit of its access to attractive banking terms. It is also often an opportunity to lengthen payment terms (suppliers are not very sensitive to this because they discount the debt).
Section 11.4 ANALYSING CAPITAL EXPENDITURES (CAPEX)
The following three questions should guide your analysis of the company’s investments:
- What is the state of the company’s plant and equipment?
- What is the company’s capital expenditure policy?
- What are the cash flows generated by these investments?
1/ ANALYSING THE COMPANY’S CURRENT PRODUCTION CAPACITY
The current state of the company’s fixed assets is measured by the ratio
A very low ratio (less than 30%) indicates that the company’s plant and equipment are probably worn out. In the near term, the company will be able to generate robust margins because depreciation charges will be minimal. But don’t be fooled, this situation cannot last forever. In all likelihood, the company will soon have trouble because its manufacturing costs will be higher than those of its competitors who have modernised their production facilities or innovated. Such a company will soon lose market share and its profitability will decline.
If the ratio is close to 100%, the company’s fixed assets are relatively new, and it will probably be able to reduce its capital expenditure in the next few years.
2/ ANALYSING THE COMPANY’S INVESTMENT POLICY
Through the production process, fixed assets are used up. The annual depreciation charge is supposed to reflect this wearing out. By comparing capital expenditure with depreciation charges, you can determine whether the company is:
- expanding its industrial base by increasing production capacity. In this case, capital expenditure is higher than depreciation as the company invests more than simply to compensate for the annual wearing-out of fixed assets;
- maintaining its industrial base, replacing production capacity as necessary. In this case, capital expenditure approximately equals depreciation as the company invests just to compensate for the annual wearing-out of fixed assets;
- underinvesting or divesting (capital expenditure below depreciation). This situation can only be temporary or the company’s future will be in danger, unless the objective is to liquidate the company.
Comparing capital expenditure with net fixed assets at the beginning of the period gives you an idea of the size of the investment programme with respect to the company’s existing production facilities. A company that invests an amount equal to 50% of its existing net fixed assets is building new facilities worth half what it has at the beginning of the year. This strategy carries certain risks:
- the risk that economic conditions will take a turn for the worse;
- the risk that production costs will be difficult to control (productivity deteriorates);
- technology risks, etc.
3/ ANALYSING THE CASH FLOWS GENERATED BY INVESTMENTS
The theoretical relationship between capital expenditures on the one hand and the cash flow from operating activities on the other is not simple. New fixed assets are combined with those already on the balance sheet, and together they generate the cash flow of the period. Consequently, there is no direct link between operating cash flow and the capital expenditure of the period.
Comparing cash flow from operating activities with capital expenditure makes sense only in the context of overall profitability and the dynamic equilibrium between sources and uses of funds.
The only reason to invest in fixed assets is to generate profits, i.e. positive cash flows. Any other objective turns finance on its head. You must therefore be very careful when comparing the trends in capital expenditure and cash flow from operating activities. This analysis can be done by examining the cash flow statement.
Be on the lookout for companies that, for reasons of hubris, grossly overinvest, despite their cash flow from operating activities not growing at the same rate as their investments. Management has lost sight of the all-important criterion that is profitability.
All the above does not mean that capital expenditure should be financed by internal sources only. Our point is simply that a good investment policy grows cash flow at the same rate as capital expenditure. This leads to a virtuous circle of growth, a necessary condition for the company’s financial equilibrium, as shown in graph A in this figure:
Graphs B, C and D illustrate other corporate situations. In D, investment is far below the company’s cash flow from operations. You must compare investment with depreciation charges so as to answer the following questions:
- Is the company living off the assets it has already acquired (profit generated by existing fixed assets)?
- Is the company’s production equipment ageing?
- Are the company’s current capital expenditures appropriate, given the rate of technological innovation in the sector?
Naturally, the risk in this situation is that the company is resting on its laurels, and that its technology is falling behind that of its competitors. This will eat into the company’s profitability and, as a result, into its cash flow from operating activities at the very moment it will most need cash in order to make the investments necessary to close the gap vis-à-vis its rivals.
Generally speaking, you must understand that there are certain logical inferences that can be made by looking at the company’s investment policy. If its capital expenditure is very high, then the company is embarking on a project to create significant new value rather than simply growing. Accordingly, future cash flow from operating activities will depend on the profitability of these new investments and is thus highly uncertain.
Lastly, ask yourself the following questions about the company’s divestments: do they represent recurrent transactions, such as the gradual replacement of a rental car company’s fleet of vehicles, or are they one-off disposals? In the latter case, is the company’s insufficient cash flow forcing the company to divest? Or is the company selling old, outdated assets in order to turn itself into a dynamic, strategically rejuvenated company? Is this asset-pruning?
4/ ANALYSING INVESTMENT CARRIED OUT THROUGH EXTERNAL GROWTH
Companies can grow their fixed asset base either through outright purchases (internal growth) or through acquisition of other companies owning fixed assets (external growth).
There are three main risks behind an external growth policy:
- That of integrating assets and people, which is always easier on paper than in real life. This is the first reason why so many mergers fail to deliver on promises (see Chapter 45).
- That of regular changes in the group perimeter, which complicates its analysis and can hide real difficulties (as illustrated by Steinhoff’s difficulties).
- That of having overpaid for acquired companies. By carrying out an analysis of prices paid (see Chapter 31), the external analyst can detect overpayments only if they are provided with enough information by the acquirer.
The frequency of acquisition of other companies gives clues about the concentration inside a sector. The higher the latter, the lower the former.
Section 11.5 CASE STUDY: ARCELORMITTAL3
1/ WORKING CAPITAL ANALYSIS
The average VAT rate of ArcelorMittal is not disclosed, so we have taken a rate of 20%.
In days (d) of net sales | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
58 d | 52 d | 54 d | 46 d | 39 d | 50 d | 54 d | 61 d | 50 d | 30 d | |
35 d | 34 d | 39 d | 33 d | 35 d | 41 d | 39 d | 38 d | 34 d | 39 d | |
93 d | 88 d | 94 d | 86 d | 81 d | 107 d | 108 d | 113 d | 94 d | 89 d | |
46 d | 44 d | 51 d | 48 d | 45 d | 70 d | 67 d | 63 d | 57 d | 69 d |
In the most acute phase of its crisis, ArcelorMittal had been able to reduce its WCR by half, from \$14.9bn in 2011 to $6.8bn in 2015, a drop of more than 50%, freeing up \$8bn of cash, while sales had only dropped by a third. Part of this decline was mechanical as it was due to the drop in its sales, but another part was due to its own efforts as evidenced by a WCR of only 39 days in 2015. It was in the area of inventories that the most significant effort was made.
With the return to better health from 2016 to 2018, WCR ratios deteriorated and returned to their levels of the early 2010s, resulting in a cash outflow of \$6bn. A company can indeed hardly maintain an iron discipline, even in the steel industry, specific to a period of potentially fatal crisis, when it is overcome. \$8bn are regained in 2019–2020 when the economic situation for ArcelorMittal starts to deteriorate again.
2/ CAPITAL EXPENDITURE ANALYSIS
Unsurprisingly, given the steel industry situation, which reduces ArcelorMittal’s self-financing capacity and does not encourage investment, the ratio of net fixed assets to gross fixed assets is declining: from 57% in 2015 to 55% in 2020, without however becoming worrying.
If in 2015, annual investments were 85% of depreciation (at about $2.7bn), since then they have gradually increased to 125%, and are devoted to maintenance and productivity improvements, and then again from 2018 onwards to volume growth. In 2020, they were reduced to 100% of a strongly reduced cash flow.
SUMMARY
QUESTIONS
EXERCISES
ANSWERS
BIBLIOGRAPHY
NOTES
- 1 Provided competitors have the same balance sheet closing date.
- 2 Net fixed assets are gross fixed assets minus cumulative depreciation.
- 3 Financial statements for ArcelorMittal are shown in Sections 4.2, 5/, 5.2 and 9.3.
Chapter 12. FINANCING
Tell me how you’re financed and I’ll tell you who you are
When you evaluate how a company is financed, you must perform both dynamic and static analyses.
- As we saw in the previous chapter, when it is founded, a company makes two types of investment. Firstly, it invests to acquire land, buildings, equipment, etc. Secondly, it makes operating investments, specifically start-up costs and building up working capital.
If the circle is a virtuous one, i.e. if the cash flows generated are enough to meet interest and dividend payments and repay debt, the company will gradually be able to grow and, as it repays its debt, it will be able to borrow more (the origin of the illusion that companies never repay their loans).
Conversely, the circle becomes a vicious one if the company’s resources are constantly tied up in new investments or if cash flow from operating activities is chronically low. The company systematically needs to borrow to finance capital expenditure, and it may never be able to pay off its debt, not to mention pay dividends.
Evaluating these matters is the dynamic approach.
- In parallel with the dynamic approach, you must look at the current state of the company’s finances with three questions in mind:
- Given the proportion of the company’s assets financed by bank and other financial debt and the free cash flow generated by the company, can the company repay its debt?
- Given the term structure of the company’s debt, is the company running a high risk of illiquidity?
- Is the company indebted in a currency in which it does not generate free cash flow? If so, the company is taking a foreign exchange risk.
This is the static approach.
Section 12.1 A DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF THE COMPANY’S FINANCING
To perform this analysis you will rely on the cash flow statement.
1/ THE FUNDAMENTAL CONCEPT OF CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES
The cash flow statement (see Chapter 5) is designed to separate operating activities from investing and financing activities. Accordingly, it shows cash flows from operating and investing activities and investments on the one hand, and from financing activities on the other. This breakdown will be very useful to you when valuing the company and examining investment decisions.
The concept of cash flow from operating activities, as shown by the cash flow statement, is of the utmost importance. It depends on three fundamental parameters:
- the rate of growth in the company’s business;
- the amount and nature of operating margins;
- the amount and nature of working capital.
An analysis of the cash flow statement is therefore the logical extension of the analysis of the company’s margins and the changes in working capital.
Analysing the cash flow statement means analysing the profitability of the company from the point of view of its operating dynamics, rather than the value of its assets.
2/ FREE CASH FLOW AFTER INTEREST
Free cash flow after interest is equal to cash flows from operating activities minus cash flows from investments (capex net of disposal of fixed assets). It therefore includes the investment policy of the firm.
Free cash flow after interest measures, if negative, the financial resources that the company will have to find externally (from its shareholders or lenders) to meet the needs for cash generated by its operating and investment activities. If positive, the firm will be able to reduce its debt, to pay dividends without having to raise debt or even to accumulate cash for future needs. Free cash flow after interest will therefore set the tune for the financing policy.
3/ HOW IS THE COMPANY FINANCED?
As an analyst, you must understand how the company finances its activities over the period in question. New equity capital? New debt? Reinvesting cash flow from operating activities? Asset disposals can contribute additional financial resources.
You should focus on three items for this analysis: equity capital issues, debt policy and dividend policy.
- Financing through new equity issuance: did the firm call for new equity from its shareholders during the period and, if yes, what was it used for (to reduce debt, to finance a new capex programme)? You can also come across the opposite situation whereby the company buys back part of its shares; this, like dividends, is a way of returning cash to shareholders.1 In this case, does the company want to alter its financial situation? Does it no longer have any investment opportunities?
- Financing through debt: analysing the net increase or decrease in the company’s debt burden is a question of financial structure:
- If the company is paying down debt, is it doing so in order to improve its financial structure? Has it run out of growth opportunities?
- If the company is increasing its debt burden, is it taking advantage of unutilised debt capacity? Or is it financing a huge investment project or reducing its shareholders’ equity and upsetting its financial equilibrium in the process?
- The dividend policy: as we will see in Chapter 37, the company’s dividend policy is also an important aspect of its financial policy. It is a valuable piece of information when evaluating the company’s strategy during periods of growth or recession:
- Is the company’s dividend policy consistent with its growth strategy?
- Is the company’s cash flow reinvestment policy in line with its capital expenditure programme?
You must compare the amount of dividends with the investments and cash flows from operating activities of the period.
In Section III of this book, we will examine the more complex reasoning processes that go into determining investment and financing strategies. For the moment, keep in mind that analysis of the financial statements alone can only result in elementary, common-sense rules.
As you will see later, we stand firmly against the following “principles”:
- The amount of capital expenditure must be limited to the cash flow from operating activities. No! After reading Section III you will understand that the company should continue to invest in new projects until their marginal profitability is equal to the required rate of return. If it invests less, it is underinvesting; if it invests more, it is overinvesting, even if it has the cash to do so.
- The company can achieve equilibrium by having the “cash cow” divisions finance the “glamour”2 divisions. No! With the development of financial markets, every division whose profitability is commensurate with its risk must be able to finance itself. A “cash cow” division should pay the cash flow it generates over to its providers of capital, who are then free to reinvest those funds in other projects.
Studying the equilibrium between the company’s various cash flows in order to set rules is tantamount to considering the company a world unto itself. This approach is diametrically opposed to financial theory. It goes without saying, however, that you must determine the investment cycle that the company’s financing cycle can support. In particular, debt repayment ability remains paramount. We have already warned you about that in Chapter 2!
Section 12.2 A STATIC ANALYSIS OF THE COMPANY’S FINANCING
Focusing on a multi-year period, we have examined how the company’s margins, working capital and capital expenditure programmes determine its various cash flows. We can now turn our attention to the company’s absolute level of debt at a given point in time and to its capacity to meet its commitments while avoiding liquidity crises.
1/ CAN THE COMPANY REPAY ITS DEBTS?
The best way to answer this simple, fundamental question is to take the company’s business plan and project future cash flow statements. These statements will show you whether the company generates enough cash flow from operating activities such that after financing its capital expenditure, it has enough left over to meet its debt repayment obligations without asking shareholders to reach into their pockets. If the company must indeed solicit additional equity capital, you must evaluate the market’s appetite for such a capital increase. This will depend on who the current shareholders are. A company with a core shareholder will have an easier time than one whose shares are widely held, as this core shareholder, knowing the company well, may be in a position to underwrite the share issue. It will also depend on the value of equity capital (if it is near zero, maybe only a vulture fund3 will be interested).
Naturally, this assumes that you have access to the company’s business plan, or that you can construct your own from scenarios of business growth, margins, changes in working capital and likely levels of capital expenditure. We will take a closer look at this approach in Chapter 31.
Analysts and lending banks have, in the meantime, adopted a “quick-and-dirty” way to appreciate the company’s ability to repay its debt: the ratio of net debt to EBITDA. This is, in fact, the most often used financial covenant4 in debt contracts! This highly empirical measure is nonetheless considered useful, because EBITDA is very close to cash flow from operating activities, give or take changes in working capital, interest and income tax. A value of 3 is considered a critical level, below which the company should generally be able to meet its repayment obligations.
If we were to oversimplify, we would say that a value of 3 signifies that the debt could be repaid in 3 years provided the company halted all capital expenditure and didn’t pay corporate income tax during that period. Of course, no one would ask the company to pay off all its debt in the span of 3 years, but the idea is that it could if it had to.
Conversely, a firm with debt representing 5 times EBITDA would have to stop any investment for 5 years to meet its repayment commitments as scheduled and would be in bad shape at the end of the period.
Also, practitioners believe:
- that below a net debt/EBITDA ratio of 2, the company should not have any repayment problems;
- that between 2 and 4, the situation deserves a more precise analysis depending on the company’s sector of activity. For example, bankers are more willing to lend large amounts relative to EBITDA when cash flows are predictable and stable (infrastructure, agribusiness, telecom, real estate, etc.) than when flows are sensitive to the economy (technology, capital goods, oil services, etc.);
- that from 4 to 7, the company’s debt is in all likelihood excessive, except in the case of LBOs, as we will see in Chapter 49. Debt then becomes a high-yield product, but also a high-risk one! These are the high yield loans. We are then in the leverage finance world;
- that beyond 7, even for an LBO, debt is excessive.
Naturally, these ratio levels should be taken for what they are: indications and not absolute references that change over time according to the lender’s risk appetite. Moreover, the lender will be sensitive to the actual cash generation capacity: if past cash flow statements consistently show negative free cash flow after financial expenses, banks will find it very difficult to lend, even if EBITDA is comfortable.
Accordingly, when changes in working capital are not negligible compared with the amount of EBITDA, the net debt/EBITDA ratio loses its relevance.
The following table shows trends in the net debt/EBITDA ratio posted by various different sectors in Europe between 2005 and 2022e.
Sector | 2005 | 2010 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021e | 2022e |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aerospace & Defence | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | NS | NS | 0.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
Automotive | 0.3 | NS | NS | NS | NS | NS | NS | NS | NS | NS |
Beverages | 2.1 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 2.8 |
Building Materials | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
Business Services | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
Capital Goods | 1.3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
Chemicals | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
Consumer Goods | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
Food & HPC | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
Food Retail | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
General Retail | 0.1 | NS | NS | NS | NS | NS | NS | NS | NS | NS |
IT Hardware | NS | NS | NS | NS | NS | NS | NS | NS | NS | NS |
IT Services | NS | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
Leisure & Hotels | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
Luxury Goods | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | NS | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | NS | 0.1 | NS |
Media | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
Medtech & Services | 0.9 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
Mining | 0.4 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
Oil & Gas | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
Paper & Packaging | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
Software | NS | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
Steel | 0.8 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
Telecom Operators | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
Transport & Infrastructure | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.8 |
Utilities | 1.9 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.1 |
Source: Exane BNP Paribas
Telecom operators and utilities are among the most highly leveraged sectors. One explanation is their capital intensity, which is strong. Another is the willingness of lenders to lend money to these sectors given their high long-term visibility on cash flows (concession contracts).
Similarly, analysts look at the interest coverage ratio, ICR (or debt service coverage or debt service ratio), i.e. the ratio of EBIT to net interest expense. A ratio of 3:1 is considered the critical level. Below this level, there are serious doubts as to the company’s ability to meet its obligations as scheduled, as was the case for the transport sector post 9/11. Above it, the company’s lenders can sleep more easily at night!
Rating agencies generally prefer to consider the ratio cash flow to net debt (they call our cash flow “funds from operations”, or FFO). It is true that cash flow is closer than EBITDA to the actual capacity of the firm to repay its debt.
Not so long ago, the company’s ability to repay its loans was evaluated on the basis of its debt-to-equity ratio, or gearing, with a 1:1 ratio considered the critical point.
Certain companies can support bank and other financial debt in excess of shareholders’ equity, specifically companies that generate high operating cash flow. Getlink (Eurotunnel), the company which operates the Channel Tunnel and generates robust cash flows, is an example. Conversely, other companies would be unable to support debt equivalent to more than 30% of their equity, because their margins are very thin. For example, the operating profit of Balfour Beatty, the construction company, is at best only 1.5% of its sales revenue.
The debt-to-equity ratio is still computed by some analysts and used in some debt contracts in particular for SMEs. It is an unfortunate illustration of inertia of concepts in finance.
If you insist on using equity to compute debt ratios, it is better to use the ratio of net debt divided by the market value of equity. Equity is thus taken into account for what it is worth and not for a book amount, which is, most of the time, far from economic reality. Nevertheless, this ratio presents the drawback of being quite volatile due to the volatility in the equity’s value.
2/ IS THE COMPANY RUNNING A LIQUIDITY RISK?
To understand the notion of liquidity, look at the company in the following manner: at a given point in time, the balance sheet shows the company’s assets and commitments. This is what the company has done in the past. Without planning for liquidation, we nevertheless attempt to classify the assets and commitments based on how quickly they are transformed into cash. When will a particular commitment result in a cash disbursement? When will a particular asset translate into a cash receipt?
To meet its commitments, either the company has assets it can monetise or it must contract new loans or initiate a capital increase. Of course, just like capital increases, obtaining a new loan depends on the company and its specific situation, and is therefore uncertain.
Illiquidity comes about when the maturity of the assets is greater than that of the liabilities. Suppose you took out a loan, to be repaid in six months, to buy a machine with a useful life of three years. The useful life of the machine is out of step with the scheduled repayment of the loan and the interest expenses on it. Consequently, there is a risk of illiquidity, particularly if there is no market to resell the machine at a decent price and if the activity is not profitable. Similarly, at the current asset level, if you borrow three-month funds to finance inventories that turn over in more than three months, you are running the same risk.
An illiquid company is not necessarily required to declare bankruptcy, but it must find new resources to bridge the gap. In so doing, it forfeits some of its independence because it will be obliged to devote a portion of its new resources to past uses. In times of recession, it may have trouble doing so, and indeed be forced into bankruptcy.
We say that a balance sheet is liquid when, for each maturity, there are more assets being converted into cash (inventories sold, receivables paid, etc.) than there are liabilities coming due.
This graph shows, for each maturity, the cumulative amount of assets and liabilities coming due on or before that date.
If, for a given maturity, cumulative assets are less than cumulative liabilities, the company will be unable to meet its obligations unless it finds a new source of funds. The company shown in this graph is not in this situation.
What we are measuring is the company’s maturity mismatch, similar to that of a financial institution that borrows short-term funds to finance long-term assets.
However, in real life, things are often more complex than the situation represented by the smoothed curves of the above graph. For example, the graph for a company with large debts maturing in five years would look like this:
The company will have to manage its debt (refinance) within a few years, or even restructure it (see Section 39.3).
Failure to comply with a covenant (see Section 39. 2) on a company’s debt, by making it immediately due and payable, regardless of its residual maturity, considerably increases the company’s liquidity risk. The accounting system immediately reflects this by downgrading medium- or long-term debts to short-term debts. The analyst must therefore not forget to take into account the proximity of the company to its covenants when assessing this risk.
(a) Liquidity ratios
To measure liquidity, then, we must compare the maturity of the company’s assets to that of its liabilities. This rule gives rise to the following liquidity ratios, sometimes used in loan covenants. They enable banks to monitor the risk of their borrowers.
- Current ratio:
This ratio measures whether the assets to be converted into cash in less than one year exceed the debts to be paid in less than one year.
- The quick ratio is another measure of the company’s liquidity. It is the same as the current ratio, except that inventories are excluded from the calculation. Using the quick ratio is a way of recognising that a portion of inventories corresponds to the minimum the company requires for its ongoing activity. As such, they are tantamount to fixed assets. It also recognises that the company may not be able to liquidate the inventories it has on hand quickly enough in the event of an urgent cash need. Certain inventory items have value only to the extent they are used in the production process. The quick ratio (also called the acid test ratio) is calculated as follows:
A quick ratio below one means the company might have short-term liquidity problems as it owns less current assets than it owes to its short-term lenders. If the latter stop granting it payment facilities, it will need a cash injection from shareholders or long-term lenders or face bankruptcy.
- Finally, the cash ratio completes the set:
The cash ratio is generally very low. Its fluctuations often do not lend themselves to easy interpretation.
(b) More on the current ratio
Traditional financial analysis relies on the following rule:
By maintaining a current ratio above one (more current assets than current liabilities), the company protects its creditors from uncertainties in the “gradual liquidation” of its current assets, namely in the sale of its inventories and the collection of its receivables. These uncertainties could otherwise prevent the company from honouring its obligations, such as paying its suppliers, servicing bank loans or paying taxes.
If we look at the long-term portion of the balance sheet, a current ratio above one means that sources of funds due in more than one year, which are considered to be stable,5 are greater than fixed assets, i.e. uses of funds “maturing” in more than one year. If the current ratio is below one, then fixed assets are being financed partially by short-term borrowings or by a negative working capital. This situation can be dangerous. These sources of funds are liabilities that will very shortly become due, whereas fixed assets “liquidate” only gradually in the long term.
The current ratio was the cornerstone of any financial analysis years ago. This was clearly excessive. The current ratio reflects the choice between short-term and long-term financing. In our view, this was a problem typical of the credit-based economy, as it existed in the 1970s in Continental Europe. Today, the choice is more between shareholders’ equity capital and banking or financial debt, whatever its maturity. Liquidity is managed through undrawn lines of credit which, as such, do not appear on the balance sheet. Nevertheless, they enabled a good number of groups to get through the liquidity crisis of spring 2020 without major damage thanks to the financial flexibility they provided. That said, we still think it is unhealthy to finance a permanent working capital with very short-term resources. The company that does so will be defenceless in the event of a liquidity crisis, which could push it into bankruptcy.
(c) Financing working capital
To the extent that working capital represents a permanent need, logic dictates that permanent financing should finance it. Since it remains constant for a constant business volume, we are even tempted to say that it should be financed by shareholders’ equity. Indeed, companies with high working capital are often largely funded by shareholders’ equity. This is the case, for example, with big champagne companies, which often turn to the capital markets for equity funding.
Nevertheless, most companies would be in an unfavourable cash position if they had to finance their working capital strictly with long-term debt or shareholders’ equity. Instead, they often use revolving credits, which we will discuss in Chapter 21. For that matter, the fact that the components of working capital are self-renewing encourages companies to use revolving credit facilities in which customer receivables and inventories often collateralise the borrowings.
By their nature, revolving credit facilities are always in effect, and their risk is often tied directly to underlying transactions or collateralised by them (receivables, inventory, etc.). Full and permanent use of short-term revolving credit facilities can often be dangerous, because it:
- exhausts borrowing capacity;
- inflates interest expense unnecessarily;
- increases the volume of relatively inflexible commitments, which will restrict the company’s ability to stabilise or restructure its activity.
Working capital is not only a question of financing. It can carry an operational risk as well. Short-term borrowing does not exempt the company from strategic analysis of how its operating needs will change over time. This is a prerequisite to any financing strategy.
Companies that export a high proportion of their sales or that participate in construction and public works projects are risky inasmuch as they often have insufficient shareholders’ equity compared with their total working capital. The difference is often financed by revolving credits, until one day, when the going gets rough …
In sum, you must pay attention to the true nature of working capital, and understand that a short-term loan that finances permanent working capital cannot be repaid by the operating cycle except by squeezing that cycle down, or in other words, by beginning to liquidate the company.
(d) Companies with negative working capital
Companies with a negative working capital raise a fundamental question for the financial analyst. Should they be allowed to reduce their shareholders’ equity on the strength of their robust, positive cash position?
Can a company with a negative working capital maintain a financial structure with relatively little shareholders’ equity? This would seem to be an anomaly in financial theory. On the practical level, we can make two observations.
Firstly, under normal operating conditions, the company’s overall financing structure is more important and more telling than the absolute value of its negative working capital.
Let’s look at companies A and B, whose balance sheets are as follows:
Company A | |||
---|---|---|---|
Fixed assets | 900 | Shareholders’ equity | 800 |
Working capital | 1,000 | Net debt | 1,100 |
Company B | |||
---|---|---|---|
Fixed assets | 125 | Shareholders’ equity | 100 |
Cash & cash equiv. | 105 | Neg. working capital | 130 |
Most of company A‘s assets, in particular its working capital, are financed by debt. As a result, the company is much more vulnerable than company B, where the working capital is well into negative territory and the fixed assets are mostly financed by shareholders’ equity.
Secondly, a company with a negative working capital reacts much more quickly in times of crisis, such as recession. Inertia, which hinders positive working capital companies, is not as great.
Nevertheless, a negative working capital company runs two risks:
- The payment terms granted by its suppliers may suddenly change. This is a function of the balance of power between the company and its supplier, and unless there is an outside event, such as a change in the legislative environment, such risk is minimal. On the contrary, when a company with a negative working capital grows, its position vis-à-vis its suppliers tends to improve. Nevertheless, the tendency (including regulatory) to reduce payment periods has a mechanically negative impact on firms with negative working capital.
- A contraction in the company’s business volume can put a serious dent in its financial structure. Already negative working capital becoming less and less negative will prompt a cash drain on a company’s financial resources, pushing it into financial difficulties unless it is able to use its available cash, if any, or raise new debt.
3/ IS THE COMPANY EXPOSED TO A FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK?
For example, going into debt in euros when all assets and cash flows are in dollars, allows you to benefit from lower euro interest rates, but also exposes you to a high exchange rate risk. Unless it is hedged (see Chapter 51), risk will become reality in the event of an appreciation of the euro. Some companies have disappeared as a result. It is therefore necessary to verify that this exchange risk has been properly assessed, or that hedges have been set up (swaps, options).
Section 12.3 CASE STUDY: ARCELORMITTAL6
Since 2016, ArcelorMittal’s free cash flow after financial expenses has always been positive and cumulatively amounts to \$12.1bn. This performance is primarily due to cash flow from operations far exceeding investments ($21.0bn, compared with \$10.8bn), and reinforced by a \$2.0bn reduction in working capital between 2016 and 2020 and asset disposals (in particular the sale of ArcelorMittal USA, the benefits of which will only be partially visible in 2020, as a large portion of the price was paid in shares).
ArcelorMittal carried out two share issues over the period, one of \$3.1bn in 2016, the other of \$2bn in 2020 (in the form of shares and bonds redeemable in shares), allowing it to further contribute to debt reduction after payment of dividends limited to \$0.9bn over the period and a share buyback of \$0.8bn in 2018–2020.
These \$15.5bn (12.1 + 5.1 – 0.9 – 0.8) have reduced net debt by the same amount, from \$29.5bn at the end of 2016 to \$14.0bn at the end of 2020. Thanks to the recovery of EBITDA until 2018, the improvement in the net debt/EBITDA ratio is even greater: from 7.8 in 2015 to 2.4 in 2018. Debt was therefore under control, before the relapse in 2019 and the crisis in 2020 caused it to deteriorate again to 4.8 in 2019 and 4.2 in 2020, mainly due to a fall in EBITDA and despite a continued effort to reduce debt.
ArcelorMittal’s debt is almost entirely composed of bonds whose maturities are well spread over several years with an average maturity of 5.2 years, which rules out a medium-term liquidity risk. ArcelorMittal also benefits from a \$5.5bn undrawn bank credit line maturing in 2025, with covenants stipulating a maximum net debt/EBITDA ratio of 4.25, calculated on the basis of EBITDA excluding restructuring costs, and on the basis of debt that does not take into account pension commitments or the sale of receivables, contrary to our recommendations (see Section 9.2) and therefore to our calculations. At the beginning of the Covid-19 crisis, ArcelorMittal had put in place with its relationship banks a complementary line of \$3bn. This line was never drawn and cancelled a few months later when management had sufficient visibility.
With \$11.5bn in cash and undrawn credit lines as of 31 December 2020, ArcelorMittal’s liquidity was not a concern at that date.
Net debt at the end of 2019 was 54% in euros and 39% in US dollars, roughly overlapping with the sales mix before the disposal of ArcelorMittal USA in December 2020. We can expect the group to rebalance its financing towards more euros in the future.
SUMMARY
QUESTIONS
EXERCISES
ANSWERS
BIBLIOGRAPHY
NOTES
- 1 See Chapter 37.
- 2 A glamour division is a fast-growing, high-margin division.
- 3 An investment fund that buys the debt of companies in difficulty or subscribes to equity issues with the aim of taking control of the company at a very low price.
- 4 Clause in debt contracts restricting the freedom of the borrower until debt is above a certain level. For more on debt covenants, see Section 39.2.
- 5 Also called “permanent financing”. This includes shareholders’ equity, which is never due, and debts maturing after one year.
- 6 The financial statements for ArcelorMittal are in Sections 4.2, 5/, 5.2 and 9.3.
Chapter 13. RETURN ON CAPITAL EMPLOYED AND RETURN ON EQUITY
The leverage effect is much ado about nothing
So far we have analysed:
- how a company can create wealth (margin analysis);
- what kind of investment is required to create wealth: capital expenditure and increases in working capital;
- how those investments are financed through debt or equity.
We now have everything we need to carry out an assessment of the company’s efficiency, i.e. its profitability.
A company that delivers returns that are at least equal to those required by its shareholders and lenders will not experience financing problems in the long term, since it will be able to repay its debts and create value for its shareholders.
Hence the importance of this chapter, in which we attempt to measure the book profitability of companies.
Section 13.1 ANALYSIS OF CORPORATE PROFITABILITY
We can measure profitability only by studying returns in relation to the invested capital. If no capital is invested, there is no profitability to speak of.
Book profitability is the ratio of the wealth created (i.e. earnings) to the capital invested. Profitability should not be confused with margins. Margins represent the ratio of earnings to business volumes (i.e. sales or production), while profitability is the ratio of profits to the capital invested to generate the profits.
Above all, analysts should focus on the profitability of capital employed by studying the ratio of operating profit to capital employed, which is called return on capital employed (ROCE).
Return on capital employed can also be considered as the return on equity if net debt is zero (equity thereby finances all assets).
Much ink has been spilled over the issue of whether opening or closing capital employed1 or an average of the two figures should be used. We will leave it up to readers to decide for themselves. That said, you should take care not to change the method you decide to use as you go along, so that comparisons over longer periods are not skewed. The operating profit figure that should be used is the one we presented in Chapter 9, i.e. after employee profit-sharing, incentive payments and all the other revenues and charges that are assigned to the operating cycle.
These figures are calculated after tax. We calculate return on capital employed after tax using the normal rate and not by deducting the actual income tax as it depends on the financial structure, as financial interest is deductible and thereby reduces the taxes owed. For groups operating in more than one country, the tax rate used is that found in the income statement by dividing corporate income tax by profit before tax.
Return on capital employed can be calculated by combining a margin and turnover rate as follows:
The first ratio on the right-hand side – operating profit after tax / sales – corresponds to the operating margin generated by the company, while the second – sales / capital employed – reflects asset turnover or capital turnover (the inverse of capital intensity), which indicates the amount of capital (capital employed) required to generate a given level of sales. Consequently, a “normal” return on capital employed may result from weak margins, but high asset turnover (and thus low capital intensity), e.g. in mass retailing. It may also stem from high margins, but low asset turnover (i.e. high capital intensity), e.g. satellite operator.
The following figure shows the ROCE and its components achieved by some leading groups during 2019.
Walmart (food retail) and Eutelsat (satellite operator) generate a similar return on capital employed, but their operating margins and asset turnover are entirely different. Eutelsat has a strong operating margin but a weak asset turnover (high level of fixed assets), while Walmart has a smaller operating margin but a higher asset turnover (limited inventories, immediate cash collection from customers).
We can also calculate the return on equity (ROE), which is the ratio of net income to shareholders’ equity:
In practice, most financial analysts take goodwill impairment losses and non-recurring items out of net income before calculating return on equity.
Section 13.2 LEVERAGE EFFECT
1/ THE PRINCIPLE
The leverage effect explains a company’s return on equity in terms of its return on capital employed and cost of debt.
In our approach, we considered the total amount of capital employed, including both equity and debt. This capital is invested in assets that form the company’s capital employed and that are intended to generate earnings, as follows:
All the capital provided by lenders and shareholders is used to finance all the uses of funds, i.e. the company’s capital employed. These uses of funds generate operating profit, which itself is apportioned between net financial expense (returns paid to debtholders) and net income attributable to shareholders.
If we compare a company’s return on equity with its return on capital employed (after tax to remain consistent), we note that the difference is due only to its financial structure, apart from non-recurring items and items specific to consolidated accounts, which we will deal with later on.
The leverage effect explains how it is possible for a company to deliver a return on equity exceeding the rate of return on all the capital invested in the business, i.e. its return on capital employed.
Readers should pause for a second to contemplate this corporate nirvana, which apparently consists in making more money than is actually generated by a company’s industrial and commercial activities.
The leverage effect works as follows. When a company raises debt and invests the funds it has borrowed in its industrial and commercial activities, it generates operating profit that normally exceeds the interest expense due on its borrowings. If this is not the case, it is not worth investing, as we shall see at the beginning of Section II of this book. So, the company generates a surplus consisting of the difference between the return on capital employed and the cost of debt related to the borrowing. This surplus is attributable to shareholders and increases return on equity. Hence the name leverage effect.
Let’s consider a company with capital employed of 100, generating a return of 10% after tax, which is financed entirely by equity. Its return on capital employed and return on equity both stand at 10%.
If the same company finances 30 of its capital employed with debt at an interest rate of 4% after tax and the remainder with equity, its return on equity is:
When divided by shareholders’ equity of 70 (100 – 30), this yields a return on equity after tax of 12.6% (8.8 / 70), while the after-tax return on capital employed stands at 10%.
The borrowing of 30 that is invested in capital employed generates operating profit after tax of 3, which, after post-tax interest expense (1.2), is fully attributable for an amount of 1.8 to shareholders. This surplus amount (1.8) is added to operating profit generated by the equity-financed investments (70 × 10% = 7) to give net income of 7 + 1.8 = 8.8. The company’s return on equity now stands at 8.8 / 70 = 12.6%.
The leverage effect of debt thus increases the company’s return on equity by 2.6%, or the surplus generated (1.8) divided by shareholders’ equity (1.8 / 70 = 2.6).
But readers will surely have noticed the prerequisite for the return on equity to increase when the company raises additional debt, i.e. its ROCE must be higher than its cost of debt. Otherwise, the company borrows at a higher rate than the returns it generates by investing the borrowed funds in its capital employed. This gives rise to a deficit, which reduces the rate of return generated by the company’s equity. Its earnings decline, and the return on equity dips below its return on capital employed.
Let’s go back to our company and assume that its return on capital employed falls to 2% after tax. In this scenario, its return on equity is as follows:
When divided by shareholders’ equity of 70, this yields a return on equity after tax of 1.1% (0.8 / 70).
Once invested in tangible assets or working capital, the borrowing of 30 generates an operating profit after tax of 0.6 which, after deducting the 1.2 in interest charges, produces a deficit of 0.6 on the borrowed funds. This shortfall is thus deducted from net income, which will drop to 70 × 2% − 0.6 = 0.8.
The original return on capital employed of 2% is thus reduced by 0.6 / 70 = 0.9% to give a return on equity of 1.1% after tax.
2/ FORMULATING AN EQUATION
Before we go any further, we need to clarify the impact of tax on this line of reasoning.
Tax reduces earnings. All revenues give rise to taxation and all charges serve to reduce the tax bite (provided that the company is profitable). Consequently, each line of the income statement can thus be regarded as giving rise to either tax expense or a theoretical tax credit, with the actual tax charge payable being the net amount of the tax expense and credits. We can thus calculate an operating profit figure net of tax, by simply multiplying the operating profit before tax by a factor of (1 – rate of corporate income tax).
As a result, we can ensure the consistency of our calculations. Throughout this chapter, we have worked on an after-tax basis for all the key profit indicators, i.e. operating profit, net financial expense and net income (note that our reasoning would have been identical had we worked on a pre-tax basis).
Let’s now formulate an equation encapsulating our conclusions. Net income is equal to the return on capital employed multiplied by shareholders’ equity plus a surplus (or deficit) arising on net debt, which is equal to the net debt multiplied by the difference between the after-tax return on capital employed and the after-tax cost of debt.
Translating this formula into a profitability rather than an earnings-based equation, we come up with the following:
Or
The ratio of net debt to shareholders’ equity is called financial leverage or gearing.
The leverage effect can thus be expressed as follows:
Note that:
- the higher the company’s return on capital employed relative to the cost of debt (e.g. if ROCE increases to 16% in our example, return on equity rises to 16% × 5.1% = 21.1%); or
- the higher the company’s debt burden, the higher the leverage effect.
Naturally, the leverage effect goes into reverse once:
- return on capital employed falls below the cost of debt;
- the cost of debt is poorly forecast or suddenly soars because the company’s debt carries a variable rate and interest rates are on the rise.
The leverage effect applies even when a company has negative net debt, i.e. when its short-term financial investments exceed the value of its debt. In such cases, return on equity equates to the average of return on equity and return on net short-term investments weighted by shareholders’ equity and net short-term investments. The leverage effect can thus be calculated in exactly the same way, with i corresponding instead to the after-tax rate of return on net short-term financial investments and D showing a negative value because net debt is negative.
For instance, let’s consider the case of Hermès in 2020. Its shareholders’ equity stood at €7,391m and its net debt was a negative €4,415m, while its short-term financial investments yielded 0.2% after tax. Its return on capital employed after applying an average tax rate of 31% stood at 48% based on its operating profit of €2,072m.2 Return on equity thus stands at:
The reason for Hermès ROE being lower than its ROCE is clearly not that the group’s cost of debt is higher than its return on capital employed! To put things simply, Hermès is unable to secure returns on the financial markets for its surplus cash on a par with those generated by its manufacturing facilities. Consequently, it has to invest the funds at a rate below its return on capital employed, thus depressing its return on equity.
The following tables show trends in ROCE and ROE posted by various different sectors in Europe over the 2000–2022 period.
ROCE FOR LISTED GROUPS (EUROPEAN GROUPS PER SECTOR)
Sector | 2005 | 2010 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021e | 2022e |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aerospace & Defence | 10% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 15% | 17% | 14% | 5% | 10% | 14% |
Automotive | 7% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 9% | 8% | 5% | 9% | 11% |
Beverages | 11% | 10% | 10% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 7% | 8% |
Building Materials | 9% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 10% |
Business Services | 11% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 10% |
Capital Goods | 7% | 14% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 11% | 13% |
Chemicals | 11% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 9% |
Consumer Goods | 10% | 13% | 14% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 13% | 13% |
Food & HPC | 15% | 17% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 14% | 15% |
Food Retail | 8% | 11% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 8% |
General Retail | 19% | 22% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 19% | 15% | 7% | 13% | 16% |
IT Hardware | 32% | 21% | 15% | 9% | 15% | 14% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 21% |
IT Services | 8% | 16% | 14% | 15% | 16% | 12% | 13% | 9% | 9% | 11% |
Leisure & Hotels | 8% | 9% | 13% | 12% | 14% | 12% | 9% | –2% | 1% | 7% |
Luxury Goods | 10% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 14% | 16% | 12% | 8% | 11% | 13% |
Media | 9% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 7% | 9% |
Medtech & Services | 9% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 8% | 8% |
Mining | 19% | 19% | 3% | 6% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 12% | 16% | 13% |
Oil & Gas | 20% | 10% | 2% | 2% | 6% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 8% |
Paper & Packaging | 8% | 6% | 8% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 8% |
Software | 53% | 24% | 16% | 15% | 18% | 14% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 13% |
Steel | 12% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 2% | –3% | 6% | 7% |
Telecom Operators | 9% | 9% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 6% |
Transport & Infrastructure | 8% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 0% | 5% | 7% |
Utilities | 8% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
Source: Exane BNP Paribas
The reader may notice that high rates of ROCE cannot be maintained indefinitely, as can be seen in the oil and mining sectors. We’ll be looking at this again in Chapter 26.
In 2020, the utilities and luxury sectors had identical returns on equity (10%), but different ROCE (5% and 8% respectively). Debt explains this difference: reasonable in the luxury sector, much higher in the utilities sector (see Section 12.2). The quality of return on equity in the luxury sector is therefore better than for utilities as it is more efficient operationally.
ROE FOR LISTED GROUPS (EUROPEAN GROUPS PER SECTOR)
Sector | 2005 | 2010 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021e | 2022e |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aerospace & Defence | 12% | 11% | 22% | 21% | 16% | 21% | 19% | 6% | 17% | 21% |
Automotive | 13% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 14% | 12% | 10% | 4% | 11% | 13% |
Beverages | 16% | 15% | 17% | 10% | 13% | 15% | 13% | 10% | 12% | 12% |
Building Materials | 14% | 6% | 9% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 12% | 13% |
Business Services | 21% | 21% | 23% | 23% | 21% | 21% | 20% | 15% | 18% | 18% |
Capital Goods | 9% | 17% | 14% | 15% | 15% | 20% | 14% | 11% | 14% | 16% |
Chemicals | 18% | 18% | 16% | 14% | 16% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 13% | 14% |
Consumer Goods | 14% | 14% | 14% | 15% | 19% | 18% | 16% | 14% | 15% | 15% |
Food & HPC | 20% | 19% | 18% | 18% | 19% | 20% | 21% | 20% | 20% | 21% |
Food Retail | 13% | 13% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 8% |
General Retail | 21% | 21% | 19% | 19% | 18% | 18% | 18% | 8% | 14% | 18% |
IT Hardware | 20% | 12% | 12% | 6% | 13% | 10% | 13% | 15% | 15% | 17% |
IT Services | 12% | 15% | 16% | 15% | 17% | 16% | 15% | 11% | 11% | 12% |
Leisure & Hotels | 10% | 13% | 18% | 18% | 21% | 16% | 15% | –8% | –1% | 12% |
Luxury Goods | 12% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 17% | 10% | 15% | 16% |
Media | 14% | 15% | 14% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 15% | 12% | 13% | 15% |
Medtech & Services | 13% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 14% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 11% | 11% |
Mining | 30% | 25% | 5% | 9% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 18% | 22% | 17% |
Oil & Gas | 25% | 15% | 6% | 4% | 8% | 11% | 9% | 1% | 7% | 11% |
Paper & Packaging | 17% | 7% | 12% | 11% | 12% | 15% | 12% | 9% | 10% | 10% |
Software | 38% | 28% | 19% | 18% | 19% | 16% | 16% | 17% | 14% | 15% |
Steel | 20% | 6% | –5% | 5% | 10% | 11% | 0% | –10% | 6% | 6% |
Telecom Operators | 14% | 14% | 8% | 9% | 11% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 9% |
Transport & Infrastructure | 18% | 14% | 14% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 13% | –9% | 9% | 15% |
Utilities | 15% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 11% |
Source: Exane BNP Paribas
3/ CALCULATING THE LEVERAGE EFFECT
(a) Presentation
To calculate the leverage effect and the return on equity, we recommend using the following table. The items needed for these calculations are listed below. We strongly recommend that readers use the data shown in the tables in Section 4.2, 5/ and Section 9.3.
- On the income statement:
- sales (S);
- profit before tax and non-recurring items (PBT);
- financial expense net of financial income (FE);
- operating profit (EBIT).
- On the balance sheet:
- fixed assets (FA);
- working capital (WC) comprising both operating and non-operating working capital;
- capital employed, i.e. the sum of the two previous lines, alternatively the sum of the two following lines, since capital employed is financed by shareholders’ equity and debt (CE);
- shareholders’ equity (E);
- net debt encompassing all short-, medium- and long-term bank borrowings and debt less marketable securities, cash and equivalents (D).
LEVERAGE EFFECT (E.G. ARCELORMITTAL)
* In practice, the analyst may prefer to use the actual rate based on the average taxation for the firm.
CALCULATIONS
After tax cost of debt | 6.4% | 2.8% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | ||
ROCE | Return on capital employed (after tax) | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% | |
ROCE – i | Return on capital employed (after tax) – after-tax cost of debt | 0.6% | 4.4% | 1.4% | –3.7% | –5.3% | |
D / E | Gearing | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | |
0.5% | 2.7% | 0.8% | –2.2% | –2.2% | |||
ROE | 7.6% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 0.0% | –1.1% | ||
or | |||||||
ROE | 7.6% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 0.0% | –1.1% |
RESULTS
Returns | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
After tax operating margin (EBIT / S × (1 – Tc)) | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% |
× Capital employed turnover (S / CE) | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
= Return on capital employed (A) | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
Return on capital employed – after-tax cost of debt (ROCE – i) | 0.6% | 4.4% | 1.4% | –3.7% | –5.3% |
× Gearing (D/E) | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
= Leverage effect (B) | 0.5% | 2.7% | 0.8% | –2.2% | –2.2% |
Return on equity (A + B) | 7.6% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 0.0% | –1.1% |
(b) Practical problems
We recommend that readers use the balance sheets and income statements prepared during Chapters 4 and 9 as a starting point when filling in the previous table.
Consequently, readers will arrive at the same return on equity figure whichever way they calculate it. It is worth remembering that using profit before tax and non-recurring items rather than net income eliminates the impact of non-recurring items.
Besides breaking down quasi-equity between debt and shareholders’ equity, provisions between working capital and debt, etc., which we dealt with in Chapter 7, only three concrete problems arise when we calculate the leverage effect in consolidated financial statements.
The way goodwill is treated (see Chapter 6) has a significant impact on the results obtained. Setting off entire amounts of goodwill against shareholders’ equity as a result of impairment tests or amortisation causes a large chunk of capital employed and shareholders’ equity to disappear from the balance sheet. As a result, the nominal returns on equity and on capital employed may look deceptively high when this type of merger accounting is used. Just because whole chunks of capital appear to have vanished into thin air from a balance sheet perspective does not mean that shareholders will give up their normal rate of return requirements on the capital that has done a perfectly legitimate disappearing act under accounting standards.
Consequently, we recommend that readers should, wherever possible, work with gross goodwill figures and add back to shareholders’ equity the difference between gross and net goodwill to keep the balance sheet in equilibrium. Likewise, we would advise working on the basis of operating profit and net profit before goodwill amortisation or impairment losses.
The same reasoning could be applied to equity erased by losses carried forward. They obviously do not correspond to a portion of equity recovered by shareholders even if it is no longer in the balance sheet. In an ideal world, the analyst should correct the book equity of losses carried forward in the past. This is rarely done as the information is not always easily accessible.
Consolidated accounts present another problem, which is how income from associates3 should be treated. Should income from associates be considered as financial income or as a component of operating profit, bearing in mind that the latter approach implies adding an income after financial expense and tax to an operating profit (which is before tax)?
- The rationale for considering income from associates as financial income is that it equals the dividend that the group would receive if the associate company paid out 100% of its earnings. This first approach seems to fit a financial group that may sell one or another investment to reduce its debt.
- The rationale for considering income from associates as part of the operating profit is that income from associates derives from investments included in capital employed. This latter approach is geared more to an industrial group, for which such situations should be exceptional and temporary because the majority of industrial groups intend to control more than 50% of their subsidiaries. In this case, the amount is included in capital employed. This is the approach we used for ArcelorMittal.
Finally, for those wondering whether return on equity should be the return on overall equity or just the return on group share of equity, we recommend a global approach in order to tie in with capital employed, which covers all capital employed and not just group share thereof.
4/ COMPANIES WITH NEGATIVE CAPITAL EMPLOYED
Companies with negative capital employed usually have high negative working capital exceeding the size of their net fixed assets. This phenomenon is prevalent in certain specific sectors (contract catering, food retailing, etc.) and this type of company typically posts a very high return on equity.
Consequently, return on capital employed needs to be calculated taking into account income from short-term financial investments (included in earnings) and the size of these investments (included in capital employed):
As a matter of fact, companies in this situation factor their financial income into the selling price of their products and services. Consequently, it would not make sense to calculate capital employed without taking short-term financial investments into account.
Section 13.3 USES AND LIMITATIONS OF THE LEVERAGE EFFECT
1/ LIMITATIONS OF BOOK PROFITABILITY INDICATORS
Book-based return on capital employed figures are naturally of great interest to financial analysts and managers alike. That said, they have much more limited appeal from a financial standpoint. The leverage effect equation always stands up to analysis, although sometimes some anomalous results are produced. For instance, the cost of debt calculated as the ratio of financial expense net of financial income to balance sheet debt may be plainly too high or too low. This simply means that the net debt shown on the balance sheet does not reflect average debt over the year, that the company is in reality much more (or less) indebted, or that its debt is subject to seasonal fluctuations, or a financial transaction (i.e. capital increase) was carried out during the year.
Attempts may be made to overcome this type of problem by using average or restated figures, particularly for fixed assets and shareholders’ equity. But this approach is really feasible only for internal analysts with sufficient data at their disposal.
For managers of a business or a profit centre, return on capital employed is one of the key performance and profitability indicators, particularly with the emergence of economic profit indicators, which compare the return on capital employed with the weighted average cost of capital (see Chapter 27). It is also often used in the calculation of variable compensation as an important performance metric.
From a financial standpoint, however, book-based returns on capital employed and returns on equity hold very limited appeal. Since book returns are prepared from the accounts, they do not reflect risks. As such, book returns should not be used in isolation as an objective for the company because this will prompt managers to take extremely unwise decisions.
As we have seen, it is easy to boost book returns on equity by gearing up the balance sheet and harnessing the leverage effect. The risk of the company is also increased without being reflected in the accounting-based formula.
If a company’s book profitability is very high, shareholders require a lot less and will already have adjusted their valuation of shareholders’ equity, whose market value is thus much higher than its book value. If a company’s book profitability is very low, shareholders want much more and will already have marked down the market value of shareholders’ equity to well below its book value.4
It is therefore essential to note that the book return on equity, return on capital employed and cost of debt do not reflect the rates of return required by shareholders, providers of funds or creditors, respectively. These returns cannot be considered as financial performance indicators because they do not take into account the two key concepts of risk and valuation. Instead, they belong to the domains of financial analysis and control.
2/ USES OF THE LEVERAGE EFFECT
Characteristic of the 1960s, or today with Tesla and its electric cars in the automotive industry, a strategy of “forging ahead regardless” is particularly well suited to periods of strong growth. This is a two-pronged strategy – high levels of capital expenditure in order to increase the size of industrial facilities, and low margins in order to win market share and ensure that industrial facilities are fully utilised. Obviously, return on capital employed is low (low margins and high capex), but the inevitable use of debt (the low margins lead to cash flows insufficient to finance the high capex) makes it possible to swell the return on equity through the leverage effect. Moreover, the real cost of debt is low or negative because of inflation. However, return on equity is very unstable and it may decline suddenly when the growth rate of the activity slows down. This was the strategy of Suntech, the Chinese world leader in solar panels, which enabled it to take a lion’s share of its market – or as a consultant would put it, to move down its experience curve – but which was also the source of its collapse in 2013.
The leverage effect sheds light on the origins of return on equity, i.e. whether it flows from operating performance (i.e. a good return on capital employed) or from a favourable financing structure harnessing the leverage effect. Our experience tells us that, in the long term, only an increasing return on capital employed guarantees a steady rise in a company’s return on equity.
As we shall see in Section IV, the leverage effect is not very useful in finance because it does not create any value except in two very special cases:
- in times of rising inflation, real interest rates (i.e. after inflation) are negative, thereby eroding the wealth of a company’s creditors who are repaid in a lender’s depreciating currency to the great benefit of the shareholders;
- when companies have a very heavy debt burden (e.g. following a leveraged buyout, see Chapter 47), which obliges management to ensure that they perform well so that the cash flows generated are sufficient to cover the heavy debt servicing costs. In this type of situation, the leverage effect gives management a very strong incentive to do well, because the price of failure would be very high.
Section 13.4 CASE STUDY: ARCELORMITTAL
ArcelorMittal’s economic profitability is typical of a cyclical company, alternating between highs and lows: it was close to 0% in 2015 before recovering significantly between 2016 and 2018 (7% – 9%), then falling in 2019 to 2%, and 1% in 2020. These developments are largely the result of the earnings profile we saw earlier with, in particular, the significant cost reduction plan undertaken in 2016, but also of a very buoyant market in 2018. Indeed, the economic rotation remains stable at around 1.2, which seems to be a sustainable characteristic of this capital-intensive sector.
Given the leverage effect of debt, variations in ArcelorMittal’s return on equity multiply those in economic profitability. In 2015, 2019 and 2020, the latter being close to zero, leads to a negative or zero return on equity. From 2016 to 2018, the return on equity slightly exceeds the economic profitability because of a relatively high cost of debt, the residue of difficult years before 2015. ArcelorMittal’s continued deleveraging makes a very high leverage unlikely in the future, which is fine in this sector with high fixed costs, no growth overall and alternating economic phases.
SUMMARY
QUESTIONS
EXERCISES
ANSWERS
BIBLIOGRAPHY
NOTES
- 1 Depending on whether capital expenditure during the period is regarded as having contributed to wealth creation or not.
- 2 2,098 × (1 − 35%)/(5,508 –3,227) = 59.8%.
- 3 For more on income from associates, see Section 6.1, 2/.
- 4 For more on this point, see Chapter 26.
Chapter 14. CONCLUSION OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
As one journey ends, another probably starts
By the time you complete a financial analysis, you must be able to answer the following two questions that served as the starting point for your investigations:
- Will the company be solvent? That is, will it be able to repay any loans it raised?
- Will it generate a higher rate of return than that required by those that have provided it with funds? That is, will it be able to create value?
Value creation and solvency are obviously not without links. A firm that creates value will most often be solvent and a company will most likely be insolvent because it has not succeeded in creating value.
Section 14.1 SOLVENCY
Here we return to the concept that we first introduced in Chapter 4.
Since, by definition, a company does not undertake to repay its shareholders, its equity represents a kind of life raft that will help keep it above water in the event of liquidation by absorbing any capital losses on assets and extraordinary losses.
Do assets have a value that is independent of a company’s operations? The answer is probably “yes” for the showroom of a carmaker on 5th Avenue in New York and probably “no” as far as the tools and equipment at a heavy engineering plant are concerned.
Is there a secondary market for such assets? Here, the answer is affirmative for the fleet of cars owned by a car rental company, but probably negative for the technical installations of a foundry. To put things another way, will a company’s assets fetch their book value or less? The second of these situations is the most common. It implies capital losses on top of liquidation costs (redundancy costs, etc.) that will eat into shareholders’ equity and frequently push it into negative territory. In this case, lenders will be able to lay their hands on only a portion of what they are owed. As a result, they suffer a capital loss.
The solvency of a company thus depends on the level of shareholders’ equity restated from a liquidation standpoint relative to the company’s commitments and the nature of its business risks.
A loss-making company no longer benefits from the tax shield provided by debt.1 As a result, it has to bear the full brunt of financial expense, which thus makes losses even deeper. Very frequently, companies raise additional debt to offset the decrease in their equity. Additional debt then increases financial expense and exacerbates losses, giving rise to the cumulative effects we referred to above.
Let’s consider a company with debt equal to its shareholders’ equity. The market value of its debt and shareholders’ equity is equal to their book value because its return on capital employed is the same as its cost of capital of 10%.
As a result of a crisis, the return on capital employed declines, leading to the following situation:
The company’s evolution does not come as a surprise. The market value of capital employed falls by 45% at its lowest point because the previously normal return on capital employed turns negative. The market value of debt declines (from 100% to 75% of its nominal value) since the risk of non-repayment increases with the decline in return on capital employed and the growing size of its debt. Lastly, the market value of shareholders’ equity collapses (by 70%).
Each year, the company has to increase its debt to cover the loss recorded in the previous year, to keep its capital employed at the same level. From 1 at the start of our model, financial gearing soars to 3 by the end of year 5. In this scenario, its equity gets smaller and smaller, and its lenders will be very lucky to get their hands on the original amounts that they invested. This scenario shows how debt can spiral in the event of a crisis! Some restructuring of equity and liabilities or, worse still, bankruptcy is bound to ensue with the additional losses caused by the disruption.
Imagine a second company with the same operating characteristics as the first one but debt-free when the crisis began. Its financial performance would have been entirely different, as shown by the following table:
At the end of year 4, the second company returns to profit and its shareholders’ equity has been dented only moderately by the crisis.
Consequently, the first company, which is comparable to the second in all respects from an economic perspective, will not be able to secure financing and is thus probably doomed to failure as an independent economic entity. This was the case for Hertz or Orchestra in 2020.
For a long time, net assets, i.e. the difference between assets and total liabilities or assets net of debt, was the focal point for financial analysis. Net assets are thus an indicator that corresponds to shareholders’ equity and are analysed in comparison to the company’s total commitments.
Some financial analysts calculate net assets by subtracting goodwill (or even all intangible fixed assets), adding back unrealised capital gains (which may not be accounted for owing to the conservatism principle), with inventories possibly being valued at their replacement cost.
Broadly speaking, calculating net assets is an even trickier task with consolidated accounts owing to minority interests (which group assets do they own?) and goodwill (what assets does it relate to and what value, if any, does it have?). Consequently, we recommend that readers should work using the individual accounts of the various entities forming the group and then consolidate the net asset figures using the proportional method.
Section 14.2 VALUE CREATION
A company will be able to create value during a given period if the return on capital employed (after tax) that it generates exceeds the cost of the capital (i.e. equity and net debt) that it has raised to finance capital employed.
Readers will have to remain patient for a little while yet because we still have to explain how the rate of return required by shareholders and lenders (called weighted average cost of capital) can be measured. This subject is dealt with in Section III of this book. Chapter 26 covers the concept of value creation in greater depth, while Chapter 27 illustrates how it can be measured.
Section 14.3 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS WITHOUT THE RELEVANT ACCOUNTING DOCUMENTS
When a company’s accounting documents are not available in due time (less than three months after year-end), it is a sign that the business is in trouble. In many cases, the role of an analyst will then be to assess the scale of a company’s losses to see whether it can be turned around or whether their size will doom it to failure.
In this case, the analysts will attempt to establish what proportion of the company’s loans the lenders can hope to recover. We saw in Chapter 5 that cash flow statements establish a vital link between net income and the net decrease in debt.
It may perhaps surprise some readers to see that we have often used cash flow statements in reverse, i.e. to gauge the level of earnings by working back from the net decrease in debt.
It is essential to bear in mind the long period of time that may elapse before accounting information becomes available for companies in difficulty. In addition to the usual time lag, the information systems of struggling companies may be deficient and take even longer to produce accounting statements, which are obsolete by the time they are published because the company’s difficulties have worsened in the meantime.
Consequently, the cash flow statement is a particularly useful tool for making rapid and timely assessments about the scale of a company’s losses, which is the crux of the matter.
It is very easy to calculate the company’s net debt. The components of working capital are easily determined (receivables and payables can be estimated from the balances of customer and supplier accounts, and inventories can be estimated based on a stock count). Capital expenditure, increases in cash and asset disposals can also be established very rapidly, even in a sub-par accounting system. We can thus prepare the cash flow statement in reverse to give an estimate of earnings.
A reverse cash flow statement can be used to provide a very rough estimate of a company’s earnings, even before they have been reported.
When cash starts declining and the fall is not attributable to either heavy capital expenditure that is not financed by debt capital or a capital increase, to the repayment of borrowings, to an exceptional dividend distribution or to a change in the payment terms from clients or to suppliers, the company is operating at a loss, whether or not this is concealed by overstating inventories, reducing customer payment periods, etc.
Section 14.4 CASE STUDY: ARCELORMITTAL
Is ArcelorMittal solvent? Yes, given its book equity at the close of 2020 (\$34.2bn), which is much higher than goodwill (\$4.3bn) and inventories (\$12.3bn), which are the two items on the asset side of the balance sheet whose value is the most uncertain. Goodwill reduced since 2011 to \$4.3bn compared with \$14bn in 2011, because there may be doubts about its market value given the group’s very low ROCE over several years. Inventories, because further price falls on the market due to surplus production capacities could undermine their value.
Is ArcelorMittal creating value? No, because with an average ROCE still too low (1%) in 2020, the group is not providing its investors with their required rate of return of roughly 10%. Return on equity negative is obviously below the cost of equity (around 12.5%). The destruction of value is not reflected in the group’s market capitalisation (\$33.5bn), which is above the amount of its book equity (\$32.2bn), as the market anticipates much better financial performance in the future.
SUMMARY
QUESTIONS
EXERCISE
ANSWERS
EXERCISE
NOTES
- 1 We disregard the impact of carrybacks here, i.e. tax benefits which make it possible to reduce current tax liability against the losses of past periods, if they exist.
- 2 In year 0, since the company is profitable, financial expense is only 2 given the income tax rate of 35% (rounded figures). In addition, to keep things simple, it is assumed that the entire amount of net income is paid out as a dividend.
- 3 Market value is observed rather than calculated.
- 4 To keep things simple, it is assumed that the entire amount of net income is paid out as a dividend.
- 5 Market value is observed rather than calculated.
- 6 Like construction, defence.
**Section II. INVESTORS AND MARKETS
****PART ONE. INVESTMENT DECISION RULES
Chapter 15. THE FINANCIAL MARKETS
Now let’s talk finance
This section will analyse the behaviour of the investor who buys financial instruments that the financial manager is trying to sell. Investors are free to buy a security or not and, if they decide to buy it, they are then free to hold it or resell it in the secondary market.
The financial investor seeks two types of returns: the risk-free interest rate (which we call the time value of money) and a reward for risk-taking. This section looks at these two types of returns in detail but, first, here are some general observations about financial markets.
Section 15.1 THE ROLE OF CAPITAL MARKETS
The primary role of a financial system is to bring together economic agents with surplus financial resources, such as households, and those with net financial needs, such as companies and governments. This relationship is illustrated below:
To use the terminology of John Gurley and Edward Shaw (1960), the parties can be brought together directly or indirectly.
In the first case, known as direct finance, the parties with excess financial resources directly finance those with financial needs. The financial system serves as a broker, matching the supply of funds with the corresponding demand. This is what happens when an individual shareholder subscribes to a listed company’s share issue or when a bank places a corporate bond issue with individual investors.
In the second case, or indirect finance, financial intermediaries, such as banks, buy “securities” – i.e. loans – “issued” by companies. The banks in turn collect funds, in the form of demand or savings deposits, or issue their own securities that they place with investors. In this model, the financial system serves as a gatekeeper between suppliers and users of capital and performs the function of intermediation.
When you deposit money in a bank, the bank uses your money to make loans to companies. Similarly, when you buy bonds issued by a financial institution, you enable the institution to finance the needs of other industrial and commercial enterprises through loans. Lastly, when you buy an insurance policy, you and other investors pay premiums that the insurance company uses to invest in the bond market, the property market, etc.
This activity is called intermediation, and is very different from the role of a mere broker in the direct finance model.
With direct finance, the amounts that pass through the broker’s hands do not appear on its balance sheet, because all the broker does is to put the investor and issuer in direct contact with each other. Only brokerage fees and commissions appear on a brokerage firm’s profit and loss, or income, statement.
In intermediation, the situation is very different. The intermediary shows all resources on the liabilities side of its balance sheet, regardless of their nature: from deposits to bonds to shareholders’ equity. Capital serves as the creditors’ ultimate guarantee. On the assets side, the intermediary shows all uses of funds, regardless of their nature: loans, investments, etc. The intermediary earns a return on the funds it employs and pays interest on the resources. These cash flows appear in its income statement in the form of revenues and expenses. The difference, or spread, between the two constitutes the intermediary’s earnings.
The intermediary’s balance sheet and income statement thus function as holding tanks for both parties – those who have surplus capital and those who need it:
Today’s economy is experiencing increasing disintermediation, characterised by the following phenomena:
- more companies are obtaining financing directly from capital markets; and
- more companies and individuals are investing directly in capital markets.
When capital markets are underdeveloped, an economy functions primarily on debt financing. Conversely, when capital markets are sufficiently well developed, companies are no longer restricted to debt, and they can then choose to increase their equity financing. Taking a page from the economist John Hicks, it is possible to speak of bank-based economies and market-based economies.
In a bank-based economy, the capital market is underdeveloped and only a small portion of corporate financing needs are met through the issuance of securities. Therefore, bank financing predominates. Companies borrow heavily from banks, whose refinancing needs are mainly covered by the central bank.
The lender’s risk is that the corporate borrower will not generate enough cash flow to service the debt and repay the principal, or amount of the loan.
In a market-based economy, companies cover most of their financing needs by issuing financial securities (shares, bonds, commercial paper, etc.) directly to investors. A capital market economy is characterised by direct solicitation of investors’ funds. Economic agents with surplus resources invest a large portion of their funds directly in the capital markets by buying companies’ shares, bonds, commercial paper or other short-term negotiable debt. They do this either directly or through mutual funds. Intermediation gives way to the brokerage function, and the business model of financial institutions evolves towards the placement of companies’ securities directly with investors.
In this economic model, bank loans are extended primarily to households in the form of consumer credit, mortgage loans, etc., as well as to small enterprises that do not have access to the capital markets.
The following graphs provide the best illustration of the rising importance of capital markets.
Section 15.2 PRIMARY, SECONDARY AND DERIVATIVE MARKETS
1/ FROM THE PRIMARY MARKET TO THE SECONDARY MARKET
The new issues market (i.e. creation of securities) is called the primary market. Subsequent transactions involving these securities take place on the secondary market. Both markets, like any market, are defined by two basic elements: the product (the security) and the price (its value).
Thus, shares issued or created when a company is founded can later be floated on a stock exchange, just as long-term bonds may be used by speculators for short-term strategies. The life of a financial security is intimately connected with the fact that it can be bought or sold at any moment.
From the point of view of the company, the distinction between the primary and secondary markets is fundamental. The primary market is the market for “new” financial products, from equity issues to bond issues and everything in between. It is the market for newly minted financial securities where the company can raise fresh money.
Conversely, the secondary market is the market for “used” financial products. Securities bought and sold on this market have already been created and are now simply changing hands, without any new securities being created and consequently without any new money for the company.
The primary market enables companies, financial institutions, governments and local authorities to obtain financial resources by issuing securities. These securities are then listed and traded on secondary markets. The job of the secondary market is to ensure that securities are properly priced and traded. This is the essence of liquidity: facilitating the purchase or sale of a security.
The distinction between primary and secondary markets is conceptual only. The two markets are not separated from each other. A given financial investor can buy either existing shares or new shares issued during a capital increase, for example.
If there is often more emphasis placed on the primary market, it is because the function of the financial markets is, first and foremost, to ensure equilibrium between financing needs and the sources of finance. Secondary markets, where securities can change hands, constitute a kind of financial “innovation”.
2/ THE FUNCTION OF THE SECONDARY MARKET
Financial investors do not intend to remain invested in a particular asset indefinitely. Even before they buy a security, they begin thinking about how they will exit. As a result, they are constantly evaluating whether they should buy or sell such and such an asset.
Monetising is relatively easy when the security is a short-term one. All the investor has to do is wait until maturity. The need for an exit strategy grows with the maturity of the investment and is greatest for equity investments, whose maturity is unlimited. The only way a shareholder can exit their investment is to sell their shares to someone else.
As an example, the successful business person who floats their company on the stock exchange, thereby selling part of their shares to new shareholders, diversifies their own portfolio, which before flotation was essentially concentrated in one investment.
Liquidity refers to the ability to convert an instrument into cash quickly and without loss of value. It affords the opportunity to trade a financial instrument at a “listed” price and in large quantities without disrupting the market. An investment is liquid when an investor can buy or sell it in large quantities without causing a change in its market price.
The secondary market is therefore a zero-sum game between investors, because what one investor buys, another investor sells. In principle, the secondary market operates completely independently from the issuer of the securities.
A company that issues a bond today knows that a certain amount of funds will remain available in each future year. This knowledge is based on the bond’s amortisation schedule. During that time, however, the investors holding the bonds will have changed.
Secondary market transactions do not show up in macroeconomic statistics on capital formation, earning them the scorn of some observers who claim that the secondary market does nothing to further economic development, but only bails out the initial investors.
We believe this thinking is misguided and reflects great ignorance about the function of secondary markets in the economy. Remember that a financial investor is constantly comparing the primary and secondary markets. They care little whether a “new” or a “used” security is being bought, so long as they have the same characteristics.
In fact, the quality of a primary market for a security depends greatly on the quality of its secondary market. Think about it: who would want to buy a financial security on the primary market, knowing that it will be difficult to sell it on the secondary market?
The secondary market determines the price at which the company can issue its securities on the primary market, because investors are constantly deciding between existing investments and proposed new investments.
We have seen that it would be a mistake to think that a financial manager takes no interest in the secondary market for the securities issued by the company. On the contrary, it is on the secondary market that the company’s financial “raw material” is priced every day. When the raw material is equities, there is another reason the company cannot afford to turn its back on the secondary market: this is where investors trade the voting rights in the company’s affairs and, by extension, control of the company.
3/ DERIVATIVE MARKETS: FUTURES AND OPTIONS
Derivative markets are where securities that derive their value from another asset (share, bond, commodity or even climate index) are traded. There are two main types of derivative products: options (which we will develop in Chapter 23 as they have become a key matter in financial theory and practice) and futures (Chapter 51).
Derivative instruments are tailored especially to the management of financial risk. By using derivatives, the financial manager chooses a price – expressed as an interest rate, an exchange rate or the price of a raw material – that is independent of the company’s financing or investment term. Derivatives are also highly liquid. The financial manager can change their mind at any time at a minimal cost.
Options and futures allow one to take important risks with a reduced initial outlay due to their leverage effect (this is called speculation), or on the contrary to transfer risks to a third party (hedging), and this is what companies normally use them for.
Section 15.3 THE FUNCTIONS OF A FINANCIAL SYSTEM
The job of a financial system is to efficiently create financial liquidity for those investment projects that promise the highest profitability and that maximise collective utility.
However, unlike other types of markets, a financial system does more than just achieve equilibrium between supply and demand. A financial system allows investors to convert current revenues into future consumption. It also provides current resources for borrowers, at the cost of reduced future spending.
Robert Merton and Zvi Bodie have isolated six essential functions of a financial system:
- A financial system provides means of payment to facilitate transactions. Cheques, debit and credit cards, electronic transfers, bitcoins, etc. are all means of payment that individuals can use to facilitate the acquisition of goods and services. Imagine if everything could only be paid for with bills and coins!
- A financial system provides a means of pooling funds for financing large, indivisible projects. A financial system is also a mechanism for subdividing the capital of a company so that investors can diversify their investments. If factory owners had to rely on just their own savings, they would very soon run out of investible funds. Indeed, without a financial system’s support, Nestlé and British Telecom would not exist. The system enables the entrepreneur to gain access to the savings of millions of individuals, thereby diversifying and expanding their sources of financing. In return, the entrepreneur is expected to achieve a certain level of performance. Returning to our example of a factory, if you were to invest in your neighbour’s steel plant, you might have trouble getting your money back if you should suddenly need it. A financial system enables investors to hold their assets in a much more liquid form: shares, bank accounts, etc.
- A financial system distributes financial resources across time and space, as well as between different sectors of the economy. The financial system allows capital to be allocated in a myriad of ways. For example, young people can borrow to buy a house or people approaching retirement can save to offset future decreases in income. Even a developing nation can obtain resources to finance further development. And when an industrialised country generates more savings than it can absorb, it invests those surpluses through financial systems. In this way, “old economies” use their excess resources to finance “new economies”.
- A financial system provides tools for managing risk. It is particularly risky (and inefficient as we will see later) for an individual to invest all of their funds in a single company because, if the company goes bankrupt, they lose everything. By creating collective savings vehicles, such as mutual funds, brokers and other intermediaries enable individuals to reduce their risk by diversifying their exposure. Similarly, an insurance company pools the risk of millions of people and insures them against risks they would otherwise be unable to assume individually.
- A financial system provides price information at very low cost. This facilitates decentralised decision-making. Asset prices and interest rates constitute information used by individuals in their decisions about how to consume, save or divide their funds among different assets. But research and analysis of the available information on the financial condition of the borrower is time-consuming, costly and typically beyond the scope of the layperson. Yet when a financial institution does this work on behalf of thousands of investors, the cost is greatly reduced.
- A financial system provides the means for reducing conflict between the parties to a contract. Contracting parties often have difficulty monitoring each other’s behaviour. Sometimes conflicts arise because each party has different amounts of information and divergent contractual ties. For example, an investor gives money to a fund manager in the hope that they will manage the funds in the investor’s best interests (and not their own!). If the fund manager does not uphold their end of the bargain, the market will lose confidence in them. Typically, the consequence of such behaviour is that they will be replaced by a more conscientious manager.
Section 15.4 THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BANKS AND COMPANIES
Not so long ago, banks could be classified as:
- Commercial banks that schematically collected funds from individuals and lent to corporates.
- Investment banks that provided advisory services (mergers and acquisitions, wealth management) and played the role of a broker (placement of shares, of bonds) but without “using their balance sheet”.
Since the beginning of this century, large financial conglomerates have emerged both in the US and Europe. This resulted from mega-mergers between commercial banks and investment banks: BNP/Paribas, Citicorp/Travelers Group, Chase Manhattan/JP Morgan, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, or the transition by investment banks towards commercial banking (Goldman Sachs, Mediobanca) or the reverse (Credit Suisse, Credit Agricole).
This trend, eased by changes in regulation (in particular in the US with the reform of the Glass–Steagall Act in 1999), shows a willingness of large banking groups to adopt the business model of a universal bank (also called “one-stop shopping”) in a context of increasing internationalisation and complexity. This is particularly true for certain business lines like corporate finance or fund management, in which size constitutes a real competitive advantage.
Following the 2008 financial crisis, there emerged a certain political willingness to split up large banking groups again, specifically in order to separate deposits from market-related activities. This idea (not only guided by the protection of households’ deposits) has only partially materialised in laws (in the US, France, the UK) aimed mainly at confining speculative operations and avoiding market activities that put clients’ deposits at risk (Volker regulation in particular).
Large banking groups now generally include the following business lines:
- Retail banking: for individuals and small and medium-sized corporates. Retail banks serve as intermediaries between those who have surplus funds and those who require financing. The banks collect resources from the former and lend money to the latter. They have millions of clients and therefore adopt an industrial organisation. The larger the bank’s portfolio, the lower the risk – thanks once again to the law of large numbers. Retail banking is an extremely competitive activity. After taking into account the cost of risk, profit margins are very thin. Bank loans are somewhat standard products, so it is relatively easy for customers to play one bank off against another to obtain more favourable terms. Retail banks have developed ancillary services to add value to the products that they offer to their corporate customers. Accordingly, they offer a variety of means of payment to help companies move funds efficiently from one place to another. They also help clients to manage their cash flows or their short-term investments (see Chapter 50). A retail banking division also generally includes some specific financial services for individuals (e.g. consumer credit) or for corporates (factoring, leasing, etc.), as such services are used mostly by small and medium-sized firms.
- Corporate and investment banking (CIB): provides large corporates with sophisticated services. Such banks have, at most, a few thousand clients and offer primarily the following services:
- Access to equity markets (equity capital markets, ECM): investment banks help companies prepare and carry out initial public offerings on the stock market. Later on, investment banks can continue to help these companies by raising additional funds through capital increases. They also advise companies on the issuance of instruments that may one day become shares of stock, such as warrants and convertible bonds (see Chapter 24) or the disposal of blocks of a listed subsidiary.
- Access to bond markets (debt capital markets, DCM): similarly, investment banks help large and medium-sized companies raise funds directly from investors through the issuance of bonds. The techniques of placing securities, and in particular the role of the investment bank in this type of transaction, will be discussed in Chapter 25. The investment bank’s trading room is where its role as “matchmaker” between the investor and the issuer takes on its full meaning.
- Merger and acquisition (M&A) advisory services: these investment banking services are not directly linked to corporate financing or the capital markets, although a public issue of bonds or shares often accompanies an acquisition (see Chapter 45). The first three activities are called investment banking.
- Bank financing: syndicated loans, bilateral lines, structured financing (see Chapter 21).
- Access to foreign exchange, interest rate and commodities markets: for the hedging of risk. The bank also uses these desks for speculating on its own account (see Chapter 51).
- Asset management: has its own clients – institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals – but also serves some of the retail banking clients through mutual funds. The asset management arm may sometimes use some of the products tailored by the investment banking division (hedging, order execution). This business is increasingly operated by players that are independent (totally or partially) from large banks.
Besides these global banking groups operating across all banking activities, some players have focused on certain targeted services like mergers and acquisitions and asset management (Lazard and Rothschild, for example), retail (it is the case for internet based new banks like N26, Revolut or Orange Bank) or specific geographical areas (Mediobanca and Lloyds Bank, for example).
The 2020 crisis (after 2008) demonstrated again the central role played by banks in the economy. They are suppliers of liquidity; they are also an indicator of investor risk aversion. The basic duty of a bank is to assess risk and repackage it while eliminating the diversifiable risk.
Section 15.5 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: EFFICIENT MARKETS
In an efficient market, prices instantly reflect the consequences of past events and all expectations about future events. As all known factors are already integrated into current prices, it is therefore impossible to predict future variations in the price of a financial instrument. Only new information will change the value of the security. Future information is, by definition, unpredictable, so changes in the price of a security are random. This is the origin of the random walk character of daily returns in the securities markets.
Competition between financial investors is so fierce that prices adjust to new information almost instantaneously. At every moment, a financial instrument trades at a price determined by its return and its risk as perceived by its investors.
Eugene Fama (1970) has developed the following three tests to determine whether a market is efficient: ability to predict future prices, market response to specific events, impact of insider information on the market.
In a weak-form efficient market, it is impossible to predict future returns. Existing prices already reflect all the information that can be gleaned from studying past prices and trading volumes. The efficient market hypothesis says that technical analysis has no practical value, nor do martingales (martingales in the ordinary, not the mathematical, sense). For example, the notion that “if a stock rises three consecutive times, buy it; if it declines two consecutive times, sell it” is irrelevant. Similarly, the efficient market hypothesis says that models relating future returns to interest rates, dividend yields, the spread between short- and long-term interest rates or other parameters are equally worthless.
A semi-strong efficient market reflects all publicly available information, as found in annual reports, newspaper and magazine articles, prospectuses, announcements of new contracts, of a merger, of an increase in the dividend, etc. This hypothesis can be empirically tested by studying the reaction of market prices to company events (event studies). In fact, the price of a stock reacts immediately to any announcement of relevant new information regarding a company. In an efficient market, no impact should be observable prior to the announcement, nor during the days following the announcement. In other words, prices should adjust rapidly only at the time any new information is announced.
In order to prevent investors with prior access to information from using it to their advantage (and therefore to the detriment of other investors), stock market regulators suggest that firms communicate before market opening or after market closure, or suspend trading prior to a mid-session announcement of information that is highly likely to have a significant impact on the share price. Trading resumes a few hours later or the following day so as to ensure that all interested parties receive the information. Then, when trading resumes, no investor has been short-changed.
In a strongly efficient financial market, investors with privileged or insider information or with a monopoly on certain information are unable to influence securities prices. This holds true only when financial market regulators have the power to prohibit and punish the use of insider information.
In theory, professional investment managers have expert knowledge that is supposed to enable them to post better performances than the market average. However, without using any inside information, the efficient market hypothesis says that market experts have no edge over the layperson. In fact, in an efficient market, the experts’ performance is slightly below the market average, in a proportion directly related to the management fees they charge!
Actual markets approach the theory of an efficient market when participants have low-cost access to all information, transaction costs are low, the market is liquid and investors are rational.
Take the example of a stock whose price is expected to rise 10% tomorrow. In an efficient market, its price will rise today to a level consistent with the expected gain. “Tomorrow’s” price will be discounted to today. Today’s price becomes an estimate of the value of tomorrow’s price.
Section 15.6 ANOTHER THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK UNDER CONSTRUCTION: BEHAVIOURAL FINANCE
Since the end of the 1960s, a large number of research papers have focused on testing the efficiency of markets. It is probably the most tested assumption of finance! Since the early 1980s, researchers (notably Thaler and Kahneman) have highlighted a number of “anomalies” that tend to go against the efficiency of markets:
- Excess volatility. The first issue with efficient market theory seems very intuitive: how can markets be so volatile? Information on Sanofi is not published every second. Nevertheless, the share price does move at each instant. There seems to be some kind of noise around fundamental value. As described by Benoit Mandelbrot, who first used fractals in economics, prices evolve in a discrete way rather than in a continuous manner.
- Dual listing and closed-end funds. Dual listings are shares of twin companies listed on two different markets. Their stream of dividends is, by definition, identical but we can observe that their price can differ over a long period of time. Similarly, the price of a closed-end fund (made up of shares of listed companies) can differ from the sum of the value of its components. Conglomerate discount (see Chapter 42) cannot explain the magnitude of the discount for certain funds and certainly not the premium for some others. It is interesting to see that these discounts can prevail over a long period of time, therefore making any arbitrage (although easy to conceptualise) hard to put in place.
- Calendar anomalies. Stocks seem to perform less well on Mondays than on other days of the week and provide higher returns in the month of January compared to other months of the year (in particular for small and medium-sized enterprises). Nevertheless, these calendar anomalies are not material enough to allow for systematic and profitable arbitrage given transaction costs. For each of these observations, some justifications consistent with the rationality of investor behaviour can be put forward.
- Meteorological anomalies. There is consistent observation that stock prices perform better when the sun shines than when it rains. There again, although statistically significant, these anomalies are not material enough to generate arbitrage opportunities.
There are some grounds to think a certain number of situations challenge the validity of the efficient market theory. Nevertheless, Eugene Fama, one of the founders of this theory, defends it strongly. He calls into question the methodologies used to find anomalies. Behavioural finance rejects the founding assumption of market efficiency: what if investors were not rational? It tries to build on other fields of social science to derive new conclusions. For example, economists will work with neuroscientists and psychologists to understand individual economic choices. This allows us to suppose that some decisions are influenced by circumstances and the environment.
One of the first tests for understanding people’s reasoning in making a choice is based on lotteries (gains with certain probabilities). The following attitudes can be observed:
- Gains and losses are not treated equally by investors: they will take risks when the probability of losing is high (they prefer a 50% chance of losing 100 to losing 50 for sure) whereas they will prefer a small gain if the probability is high (getting 50 for sure rather than a 50% chance of 100).
- If the difference (delta) in probability is narrow, the investor will choose the lottery with the highest return possible, but if the delta in probability is high, the investor will think in terms of weighted average return. This may generate some paradoxes: preferring Natixis to UBS, UBS to Mediobanca but Mediobanca to Natixis! This could drive an asset manager mad!
The lack of rationality of some investors would not be a problem if arbitrage made it possible to correct anomalies and if efficiency could be brought back rapidly. Unfortunately, anomalies can be observed over the long term.
The theory of mimicry is an illustration of behavioural finance. The economist André Orléan has distinguished three types of mimicry:
- Normative mimicry – which could also be called “conformism”. Its impact on finance is limited and is beyond the scope of this text.
- Informational mimicry – which consists of imitating others because they supposedly know more. It constitutes a rational response to a problem of dissemination of information, provided the proportion of imitators in the group is not too high. Otherwise, even if it is not in line with objective economic data, imitation reinforces the most popular choice, which can then interfere with efficient dissemination of information.
- Self-mimicry – which attempts to predict the behaviour of the majority in order to imitate it. The “right” decision then depends on the collective behaviour of all other market participants and can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, i.e. an equilibrium that exists because everyone thinks it will exist. This behaviour departs from traditional economic analysis, which holds that financial value results from real economic value.
The surge in the price of the video game company Gamestop, which went from $18 to $325 in 20 days in January 2021, or that of AMC (movie theatres), which went from $13 to $60 in the first half of 2021, are illustrations of a frenetic mimicry, totally disconnected from the economic situation, real or even possible, of these companies. These surges are rooted in the compulsive buying of tens of thousands of people who have never read a single page of the Vernimmen, or any other finance textbook, but who encourage and intoxicate each other on social networks.
Mimetic phenomena can be accentuated by program trading, which involves the computer programs used by some traders that rely on pre-programmed buy or sell decisions. These programs can schedule liquidating a position (i.e. selling an investment) if the loss exceeds a certain level. A practical issue with such programs was illustrated on 21 February 2021 by the flash crash of the bitcoin, which lost 34% before recovering its initial price in just one hour.
If some want to destroy efficient market theory, they will have to propose a viable alternative. As of today, the models proposed by “behaviourists” cannot be used, they merely model the behaviour of investors towards investment decisions and products.
Section 15.7 INVESTORS’ BEHAVIOUR
At any given point in time, each investor is either:
- a hedger;
- a speculator; or
- an arbitrageur.
1/ HEDGING
When an investor attempts to protect himself from risks they do not wish to assume, they are said to be hedging. The term “to hedge” describes a general concept that underlies certain investment decisions, for example, the decision to match a long-term investment with long-term financing, to finance a risky industrial investment with equity rather than debt, etc.
This is simple, natural and healthy behaviour for non-financial managers. Hedging protects a manufacturing company’s margin, i.e. the difference between revenue and expenses, from uncertainties in areas relating to technical expertise, human resources, sales and marketing, etc. Hedging allows the economic value of a project or line of business to be managed independently of fluctuations in the capital markets.
Accordingly, a European company that exports products to the US may sell dollars forward against euros, guaranteeing itself a fixed exchange rate for its future dollar-denominated revenues. The company is then said to have hedged its exposure to fluctuations in currency exchange rates.
2/ SPECULATION
In contrast to hedging, which eliminates risk by transferring it to a party willing to assume it, speculation is the assumption of risk. A speculator takes a position when they make a bet on the future value of an asset. If they think its price will rise, they buy it. If it rises, they win the bet; if not, they lose. If they are to receive dollars in a month’s time, they may take no action now because they think the dollar will rise in value between now and then. If they have long-term investments to make, they may finance them with short-term funds because they think that interest rates will decline in the meantime and they will be able to refinance at lower cost later. This behaviour is diametrically opposed to that of the hedger.
- Traders are professional speculators. They spend their time buying currencies, bonds, shares or options that they think will appreciate in value and they sell them when they think they are about to decline. Not surprisingly, their motto is “Buy low, sell high, play golf!”
- But the investor is also a speculator most of the time. When an investor predicts cash flows, they are speculating about the future. This is a very important point, and you must be careful not to interpret “speculation” negatively. Every investor speculates when they invest, but their speculation is not necessarily reckless. It is founded on a conviction, a set of skills and an analysis of the risks involved. The only difference is that some investors speculate more heavily than others by assuming more risk.
People often criticise the financial markets for allowing speculation. Yet speculators play a fundamental role in the market, an economically healthy role, by assuming the risks that other participants do not want to accept. In this way, speculators minimise the risk borne by others.
Accordingly, a European manufacturing company with outstanding dollar-denominated debt that wants to protect itself against exchange rate risk (i.e. a rise in the value of the dollar vs. the euro) can transfer this risk by buying dollars forward from a speculator willing to take that risk. By buying dollars forward today, the company knows the exact dollar/euro exchange rate at which it will repay its loan. It has thus eliminated its exchange rate risk. Conversely, the speculator runs the risk of a fluctuation in the value of the dollar between the time they sell the dollars forward to the company and the time they deliver them, i.e. when the company’s loan comes due.
Likewise, if a market’s long-term financing needs are not satisfied, but there is a surplus of short-term savings, then sooner or later a speculator will (fortunately) come along and assume the risk of borrowing short term in order to lend long term. In so doing, the speculator assumes intermediation risk.
What, then, do people mean by a “speculative market”? A speculative market is a market in which all the participants are speculators. Market forces, divorced from economic reality, become self-sustaining because everyone is under the influence of the same phenomenon. Once a sufficient number of speculators think that a stock will rise, their purchases alone are enough to make the stock price rise. Their example prompts other speculators to follow suit, the price rises further, and so on. But at the first hint of a downward revision in expectations, the mechanism goes into reverse and the share price falls dramatically. When this happens, many speculators will try to liquidate positions in order to pay off loans contracted to buy shares in the first place, thereby further accentuating the downfall.
3/ ARBITRAGE
In contrast to the speculator, the arbitrageur is not in the business of assuming risk or having a view on future price of an asset. Instead, they try to earn a profit by exploiting tiny discrepancies which may appear on different markets that are not in equilibrium.
An arbitrageur will notice that Solvay shares are trading slightly lower in London than in Brussels. They will buy Solvay shares in London and sell them simultaneously (or nearly so) at a higher price in Brussels. By buying in London, the arbitrageur bids the price up in London; by selling in Brussels, they drive the price down there. They, or other arbitrageurs, then repeat the process until the prices in the two markets are perfectly in line, or in equilibrium.
In principle, the arbitrageur assumes no risk, even though each separate transaction involves a certain degree of risk.
Arbitrage is of paramount importance in a market. By destroying opportunities as it uncovers them, arbitrage participates in the development of new markets by creating liquidity. It also eliminates the temporary imperfections that can appear from time to time. As soon as disequilibrium appears, arbitrageurs buy and sell assets and increase market liquidity. It is through their very actions that the disequilibrium is reduced to zero. Once equilibrium is reached, arbitrageurs stop trading and wait for the next opportunity.
Arbitrage transactions are all the faster to intervene (by computer programs nowadays) when the securities markets are liquid. Otherwise, imbalances may persist for some time on very illiquid securities. Market liquidity and progress in technology make arbitrage opportunities more and more complex and rare. Therefore, some arbitrators are forced in practice to take a certain amount of risk and therefore a speculative component normally foreign to arbitration in the pure sense of the term. In particular, the example given of Solvay is interesting to understand the concept of arbitrage but has not been relevant for quite some time.
Throughout this book, you will see that financial miracles are impossible because arbitrage levels the playing field between assets exhibiting the same level of risk.
You should also be aware that the three types of behaviour described here do not correspond to three mutually exclusive categories of investors. A market participant who is primarily a speculator might carry out arbitrage activities or partially hedge their position. A hedger might decide to hedge only part of their position and speculate on the remaining portion, etc.
The reader will not be fooled by the colloquial use of some words. “Hedge funds” do not operate hedging transactions but are most often involved in speculating. Otherwise, what explanation is there for the fact that they can earn or lose millions of dollars in a few days?
Moreover, these three types of behaviour exist simultaneously in every market. A market cannot function only with hedgers, because there will be no one to assume the risks they don’t want to take.1 As we saw above, a market composed wholly of speculators is not viable either. Finally, a market consisting only of arbitrageurs would be even more difficult to imagine.
SUMMARY
QUESTIONS
ANSWERS
BIBLIOGRAPHY
NOTES
Chapter 16. THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY AND NET PRESENT VALUE
A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush
For economic progress to be possible, in normal economic conditions, there must be a time value of money, even in a risk-free environment. This fundamental concept gives rise to the techniques of capitalisation, discounting and net present value, described below.
Section 16.1 CAPITALISATION
Consider an example of a businessman who invests €100,000 in his business at the end of 2011 and then sells it 10 years later for €1,800,000. In the meantime, he receives no income from his business, nor does he invest any additional funds into it. Here is a simple problem: given an initial outlay of €100,000 that becomes €1,800,000 in 10 years, and without any outside funds being invested in the business, what is the return on the businessman’s investment?
His profit after 10 years was €1,700,000 (€1,800,000 – €100,000) on an initial outlay of €100,000. Hence, his return was (1,700,000 / 100,000) or 1,700% over a period of 10 years.
Is this a good result or not?
Actually, the return is not quite as impressive as it first looks. To find the annual return, our first thought might be to divide the total return (1,700%) by the number of years (10) and say that the average return is 170% per year.
While this may look like a reasonable approach, it is in fact far from accurate. The value 170% has nothing to do with an annual return, which compares the funds invested and the funds recovered after one year. In the case above, there is no income for 10 years. Usually, calculating interest assumes a flow of revenue each year, which can then be reinvested, and which in turn begins producing additional interest.
There is only one sensible way to calculate the return on the above investment. First, it is necessary to seek the rate of return on a hypothetical investment that would generate income at the end of each year. After 10 years, the rate of return on the initial investment will have to have transformed €100,000 into €1,800,000. Further, the income generated must not be paid out, but rather it has to be reinvested (in which case the income is said to be capitalised).
Therefore, we are now trying to calculate the annual return on an investment that grows from €100,000 into €1,800,000 after 10 years, with all annual income to be reinvested each year.
An initial attempt to solve this problem can be made using a rate of return equal to 10%. If, at the end of 2011, €100,000 is invested at that rate, it will produce 10% × €100,000, or €10,000 in interest in 2012.
This €10,000 will then be added to the initial capital outlay and begin, in turn, to produce interest. (Hence the term “to capitalise”, which means to add to capital.) The capital thus becomes €110,000 and produces 10% × €110,000 in interest in 2013, i.e. €10,000 on the initial outlay plus €1,000 on the interest from the €10,000 interest earned in 2012 (10% × €10,000). As the interest is reinvested, the capital becomes €110,000 + €11,000, or €121,000, which will produce €12,100 in interest in 2014, and so on.
If we keep doing this until 2020, we obtain a final sum of €259,374, as shown in the table.
Year | Capital at the beginning of the period (€) (1) | Income (€) (2) = 10% × (1) | Capital at the end of the period (€) = (1) + (2) |
---|---|---|---|
2012 | 100,000 | 10,000 | 110,000 |
2013 | 110,000 | 11,000 | 121,000 |
2014 | 121,000 | 12,100 | 133,100 |
2015 | 133,100 | 13,310 | 146,410 |
2016 | 146,410 | 14,641 | 161,051 |
2017 | 161,051 | 16,105 | 177,156 |
2018 | 177,156 | 17,716 | 194,872 |
2019 | 194,872 | 19,487 | 214,359 |
2020 | 214,359 | 21,436 | 235,795 |
2021 | 235,795 | 23,579 | 259,374 |
Each year, interest is capitalised and itself produces interest. This is called compound interest. This is easy to express in a formula:
which can be generalised into the following:
where V is a sum and r the rate of return.
Hence, V2012 = V2011 × (1 + 10%), but the same principle can also yield:
All these equations can be consolidated into the following:
Or, more generally:
where V0 is the initial value of the investment, r is the rate of return and n is the duration of the investment in years.
This is a simple equation that gets us from the initial capital to the terminal capital. Terminal capital is a function of the rate r and the duration n.
Now it is possible to determine the annual return. In the example, the annual rate of return is not 170%, but 33.5% (which is not bad, all the same!). Therefore, 33.5% is the rate on an investment that transforms €100,000 into €1,800,000 in 10 years, with annual income assumed to be reinvested every year at the same rate.
To calculate the return on an investment that does not distribute income, it is possible to reason by analogy. This is done using an investment that, over the same duration, transforms the same initial capital into the same terminal capital and produces annual income reinvested at the same rate of return. At 33.5%, annual income of €33,500 for 10 years (plus the initial investment of €100,000 paid back after the tenth year) is exactly the same as not receiving any income for 10 years and then receiving €1,800,000 in the tenth year.
Over a long period of time, the impact of a change in the capitalisation rate on the terminal value looks as follows:
This increase in terminal value is especially important in equity valuations. The example we gave earlier of the businessman selling his company after 10 years is typical. The lower the income he has received on his investment, the more he would expect to receive when selling it. Only a high valuation would give him a return that makes economic sense.
The lack of intermediate income must be offset by a high terminal valuation. The same line of reasoning applies to an industrial investment that does not produce any income during the first few years. The longer it takes it to produce its first income, the greater that income must be in order to produce a satisfactory return.
Tripling one’s capital in 16 years, doubling it in 10 years or simply asking for a 7.177% annual return all amount to the same thing, since the rate of return is the same.
No distinction has been made in this chapter between income, reimbursement and actual cash flow. Regardless of whether income is paid out or reinvested, it has been shown that the slightest change in the timing of income modifies the rate of return.
To simplify, consider an investment of 100, which must be paid off at the end of year 1, with an interest accrued of 10. Suppose, however, that the borrower is negligent and the lender absent-minded, and the borrower repays the principal and the interest one year later than they should. The return on a well-managed investment that is equivalent to the so-called 10% on our absent-minded investor’s loan can be expressed as:
This return is less than half of the initially expected return!
It is not accounting and legal appearances that matter, but rather actual cash flows.
Section 16.2 DISCOUNTING
1/ WHAT DOES IT MEAN TO DISCOUNT A SUM?
Discounting into today’s euros helps us compare a sum that will not be produced until later. Technically speaking, what is discounting?
To discount is to “depreciate” the future. It is to be more rigorous with future cash flows than present cash flows, because future cash flows cannot be spent or invested immediately. First, take tomorrow’s cash flow and then apply to it a multiplier coefficient below 1, which is called a discounting factor. The discounting factor is used to express a future value as a present value, thus reflecting the depreciation brought on by time.
Consider an offer whereby someone will give you €1,000 in five years. As you will not receive this sum for another five years, you can apply a discounting factor to it, for example, 0.6. The present, or today’s, value of this future sum is then 600. Having discounted the future value to a present value, we can then compare it to other values. For example, it is preferable to receive 650 today rather than 1,000 in five years, as the present value of 1,000 five years out is 600, and that is below 650.
Remember that investors discount becausethey demand a certain rate of return. If a security pays you 110 in one year and you wish to see a return of 10% on your investment, the most you would pay today for the security (i.e. its present value) is 100. At this price (100) and for the amount you know you will receive in one year (110), you will get a return of 10% on your investment of 100. However, if a return of 11% is required on the investment, then the price you are willing to pay changes. In this case, you would be willing to pay no more than 99.1 for the security because the gain would have been 10.9 (or 11% of 99.1), which will still give you a final payment of 110.
Discounting converts a future value into a present value. This is the opposite result of capitalisation.
Discounting converts future values into present values, while capitalisation converts present values into future ones. Hence, to return to the example above, €1,800,000 in 10 years discounted at 33.5% is today worth €100,000. €100,000 today will be worth €1,800,000 when capitalised at 33.5% over 10 years.
2/ DISCOUNTING AND CAPITALISATION FACTORS
To discount a sum, the same mathematical formulas are used as those for capitalising a sum. Discounting calculates the sum in the opposite direction to capitalising.
To get from €100,000 today to €1,800,000 in 10 years, we multiply 100,000 by (1 + 0.335)10, or 18. The number 18 is the capitalisation factor.
To get from €1,800,000 in 10 years to its present value today, we would have to multiply €1,800,000 by 1 / (1 + 0.335)10, or 0.056. 0.056 is the discounting factor, which is the inverse of the coefficient of capitalisation. The present value of €1,800,000 in 10 years at a 33.5% rate is €100,000.
More generally:
which is the exact opposite of the capitalisation formula.
1 / (1 + r)n is the discounting factor, which depreciates Vn and converts it into a present value V0. It is most often below 1, as discounting rates are generally positive.
Section 16.3 PRESENT VALUE AND NET PRESENT VALUE OF A FINANCIAL SECURITY
Owning a financial security such as a stock or a bond means owning the right to receive cash flows (dividend, interest, reimbursement, etc.) according to the specific terms of the security.
1/ FROM THE PRESENT VALUE OF A SECURITY …
The present value (PV) of a security is the sum of its discounted cash flows, i.e.:
where Fn are the cash flows generated by the security, r is the applied discounting rate and n is the number of years for which the security is discounted.
All securities also have a market value, particularly on the secondary market. Market value is the price at which a security can be bought or sold.
Net present value (NPV) is the difference between present value and market value (V0):
If the net present value of a security is greater than its market value, then it will be worth more in the future than the market has presently valued it at. Therefore, you will probably want to invest in it, i.e. to invest in the upside potential of its value.
If, however, the security’s present value is below its market value, then you should sell it at once (as its net present value is negative), for its market value is sure to diminish.
2/ … TO ITS FAIR VALUE
If an imbalance occurs between a security’s market value and its present value, then efficient markets will seek to re-establish balance and reduce net present value to zero. Investors acting on efficient markets seek out investments offering positive net present value, in order to realise that value. When they do so, they push net present value towards zero, ultimately arriving at the fair value of the security.
3/ APPLYING THE CONCEPT OF NET PRESENT VALUE TO OTHER INVESTMENTS
Up to this point, the discussion has been limited to financial securities. However, the concepts of present value and net present value can easily be applied to any investment, such as the construction of a new factory, the launch of a new product, the takeover of a competing company or any other asset that will generate positive and/or negative cash flows.
The concept of net present value can be interpreted in three different ways:
- The value created by an investment – for example, if the investment requires an outlay of €100 and the present value of its future cash flow is €110, then the investor has become €10 wealthier.
- The maximum additional amount that the investor is willing to pay to make the investment – if the investor pays up to €10 more, they have not necessarily made a bad deal, as they are paying up to €110 for an asset that is worth €110.
- The difference between the present value of the investment (€110) and its market value (€100).
Section 16.4 WHAT DOES NET PRESENT VALUE DEPEND ON?
While net present value is obviously based on the amount and timing of cash flows, it is worth examining how it varies with the discounting rate.
The higher the discounting rate, the more future cash flow is depreciated and, therefore, the lower is the present value. Net present value declines in inverse proportion to the discounting rate, thus reflecting investor demand for a greater return (i.e. greater value attributed to time).
Take the following example of an asset (e.g. a financial security or a capital investment) with a market value of 2 and with cash flows as follows:
Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash flow | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
A 20% discounting rate would produce the following discounting factors:
Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Discounting factor | 0.833 | 0.694 | 0.579 | 0.482 | 0.402 |
Present value of cash flow | 0.67 | 0.56 | 0.46 | 0.39 | 0.32 |
As a result, the present value of this investment is 2.40.1 As its market value is 2, its net present value is 0.40.
If the discounting rate changes, the following values are obtained:
Discounting rate | 0% | 10% | 20% | 25% | 30% | 35% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Present value of the investment | 4 | 3.03 | 2.39 | 2.15 | 1.95 | 1.78 |
Market value | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Net present value | 2 | 1.03 | 0.39 | 0.15 | −0.05 | −0.22 |
Which would then look like this graphically:
Section 16.5 SOME EXAMPLES OF SIMPLIFICATION OF PRESENT VALUE CALCULATIONS
For those occasions when you are without your favourite spreadsheet program, you may find the following formulas handy in calculating present value.
1/ THE VALUE OF AN ANNUITY F OVER N YEARS, BEGINNING IN YEAR 1
or:
For the two formulas above, the sum of the geometric series can be expressed more simply as:
So, if F = 0.8, r = 20% and n = 5, then the present value is indeed 2.4.
Further, is equal to the sum of the first n discounting factors.
2/ THE VALUE OF A PERPETUITY
A perpetuity is a constant stream of cash flows without end. By adding this feature to the previous case, the formula then looks like this:
As n approaches infinity in the formula of the previous paragraph, this can be shortened to the following:
The present value of a €100 perpetuity discounted back at 10% per year is thus:
A €100 perpetuity discounted at 10% is worth €1,000 in today’s euros. If the investor demands a 20% return, then the same perpetuity is worth €500.
3/ THE VALUE OF AN ANNUITY THAT GROWS AT RATE G FOR N YEARS
In this case, the F0 cash flow rises annually by g for n years.
Thus:
or:
Note: the first cash flow actually paid out is F0 × (1 + g).
Thus, a security that has just paid out 0.8, and with this 0.8 growing by 10% each year for the four following years, has – at a discounting rate of 20% – a present value of:
4/ THE VALUE OF A PERPETUITY THAT GROWS AT RATE G (GROWING PERPETUITY)
As n approaches infinity, the previous formula can be expressed as follows:
As long as r > g. The present value is thus equal to the next year’s cash flow divided by the difference between the discounting rate and the annual growth rate.
For example, a security with an annual return of 0.8, growing by 10% annually to infinity, has, at a rate of 20%, PV = 0.8 / (0.2 – 0.1) = 8.0.
SUMMARY
QUESTIONS
EXERCISES
ANSWERS
BIBLIOGRAPHY
NOTE
Chapter 17. THE INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN
A well-deserved return
If net present value (NPV) is inversely proportional to the discounting rate, then there must exist a discounting rate that makes NPV equal to zero.
To apply this concept to capital expenditure, simply replace “yield to maturity” by “IRR”, as the two terms mean the same thing. It is just that one is applied to financial securities (yield to maturity) and the other to capital expenditure (IRR).
Section 17.1 CALCULATING YIELD TO MATURITY
To calculate yield to maturity, make r the unknown and simply use the NPV formula again. The rate r is determined as follows:
To use the same example from Section 16.4:
In other words, an investment’s yield to maturity is the rate at which its market value is equal to the present value of the investment’s future cash flows.
In our illustration, the IRR is about 28.6% (see figure in Section 16.4).
Section 17.2 YIELD TO MATURITY AS AN INVESTMENT CRITERION
The yield to maturity is frequently used in financial markets because it represents for the investor the return to be expected for a given level of risk, which they can then compare to their required return rate, thereby simplifying the investment decision.
The decision-making rule is very simple: if an investment’s yield to maturity is higher than the investor’s required return, they will make the investment or buy the security. Otherwise, they will abandon the investment or sell the security.
In our example, since the yield to maturity (28.6%) is higher than the return demanded by the investor (20%), they should make the investment. If the market value of the same investment were 3 (and not 2), the yield to maturity would be 10.4%, and they should not invest.
Hence, at fair value, the yield to maturity is identical to the market’s required return. In other words, net present value is nil (this will be developed further in Chapter 26).
Section 17.3 THE LIMITS OF YIELD TO MATURITY OR IRR
With this new investment-decision-making criterion, it is now necessary to consider how IRR can be used vis-à-vis net present value. It is also important to investigate whether or not these two criteria could somehow produce contradictory conclusions.
If it is a simple matter of whether or not to buy into a given investment, or whether or not to invest in a project, then the two criteria produce exactly the same result, as shown in the example.
If the cash flow schedule is the same, then calculating the NPV by choosing the discounting rate and calculating the internal rate of return (and comparing it with the discounting rate) are two sides of the same mathematical coin.
The issue is, however, a bit more complex when it comes to choosing between several securities or projects, which is usually the case. Comparing several streams of cash flows (securities) should make it possible to choose between them.
1/ THE REINVESTMENT RATE AND THE MODIFIED IRR (MIRR)
Consider two investments A and B, with the following cash flows:
Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Investment A | 6 | 0.5 | |||||
Investment B | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 0 | 5.1 |
At a 5% discount rate, the present value of investment A is 6.17 and that of investment B is 9.90. If investment A‘s market value is 5, its net present value is 1.17. If investment B‘s market value is 7.5, its net present value is 2.40.
Now calculate the IRR. It is 27.8% for investment A and 12.7% for investment B. Or, to sum up:
NPV at 5% | IRR% | |
---|---|---|
Investment A | 1.17 | 27.8 |
Investment B | 2.40 | 12.7 |
Investment A delivers a rate of return that is much higher than the required return (27.8% vs. 5%) during a short period of time. Investment B‘s rate of return is much lower (12.7% vs. 27.8%), but is still higher than the 5% required return demanded and is delivered over a far longer period (seven years vs. two). Our NPV and internal rate of return models are telling us two different things. So, should we buy investment A or investment B?
At first glance, investment B would appear to be the more attractive of the two. Its NPV is higher and it creates the most value: 2.40 vs. 1.17.
However, some might say that investment A is more attractive, as cash flows are received earlier than with investment B and therefore can be reinvested sooner in high-return projects. While that is theoretically possible, it is the strong (and optimistic) form of the theory because competition among investors and the mechanisms of arbitrage tend to move net present values towards zero. Net present values moving towards zero means that exceptional rates of return converge towards the required rate of return, thereby eliminating the possibility of long-lasting high-return projects.
Given the convergence of the exceptional rates towards required rates of return, it is more reasonable to suppose that cash flows from investment A will be reinvested at the required rate of return of 5%. The exceptional rate of 27.8% is unlikely to be recurrent.
And this is exactly what happens if we adopt the NPV decision rule. The NPV in fact assumes that the reinvestment of interim cash flows is made at the required rate of return. The IRR assumes that the reinvestment rate of interim cash flows is simply the IRR itself. However, in equilibrium, it is unreasonable to think that the company can continue to invest at the same rate of the (sometimes) exceptional IRR of a specific project. Instead, it is much more reasonable to assume that, at best, the company can invest at the required rate of return.
However, a solution to the reinvestment rate problem of IRR is the modified IRR (MIRR).
So, by capitalising cash flow from investments A and B at the required rate of return (5%) up to period 7, we obtain from investment A in period 7: 6 × 1.0056 + 0.5 × 1.055, or 8.68. From investment B we obtain 2 × 1.056 + 3 × 1.055 + 2.1 × 1.052 + 5.1, or 13.9. The internal rate of return that allows for investment A in capitalising over seven years to reach 8.68 is 8.20%; it is often called modified IRR. For investment B, the modified IRR is 9.24%.
We have thus reconciled the NPV and internal rate of return models.
Some might say that it is not consistent to expect investment A to create more value than investment B, as only 5 has been invested in A vs. 7.5 for B. Even if we could buy an additional “half-share” of A, in order to equalise the purchase price, the NPV of our new investment in A would only be 1.17 × 1.5 = 1.76, which would still be less than investment B‘s NPV of 2.40. For the reasons discussed above, we are unlikely to find another investment with a return identical to that of investment A.
Instead, we should assume that the 2.5 in additional investment would produce the required rate of return (5%) for seven years. In this case, NPV would remain, by definition, at 1.17, whereas the internal rate of return of this investment would fall to 11%. NPV and the internal rate of return would once again lead us to conclude that investment B is the more attractive investment.
In fact, the NPV criterion is a better choice criterion than the IRR because it assumes that the intermediate flows of the investment are reinvested at the required rate of return (the discount rate), whereas in the calculation of the IRR they are assumed to be reinvested at that rate. The latter assumption is very strong because, if the IRR is higher than the required rate of return, it assumes that the company will always find projects that yield more than the required rate of return.
2/ MULTIPLE OR NO IRR
Finally, there are some rare cases where the use of the IRR leads to a deadlock. Consider the following investments:
Year | 0 | 1 | 2 |
---|---|---|---|
Project A | 4 | −7 | 4 |
Project B | −1 | 7.2 | −7.2 |
Project A has no IRR. Thus, we have no benchmark for deciding if it is a good investment or not. Although the NPV remains positive for all the discount rates, it remains only slightly positive and the company may decide not to do it.
Project B has two IRRs, and we do not know which is the right one. There is no good reason to use one over the other. Investments with “unconventional” cash flow sequences are rare, but they can happen. Consider a firm that is cutting timber in a forest. The timber is cut, sold and the firm gets an immediate profit. But, when harvesting is complete, the firm may be forced to replant the forest at considerable expense.
The IRR criterion does not allow for the ranking of different investment opportunities. It only allows us to determine whether one project yields at least the return required by investors. When the IRR does not allow us to judge whether an investment project should be undertaken or not (e.g. no IRR or several IRRs), the NPV should be analysed.
Section 17.4 EFFECTIVE ANNUAL RATE, NOMINAL RATES AND PROPORTIONAL RATES
We have just discovered the IRR, but many readers will be more aware of the interest rate, especially those planning to take out a loan. How can we reconcile the two?
Consider someone who wants to lend you €1,000 today at 10% for four years. This 10% means 10% per year and constitutes the nominal rate of return of your loan. This rate will be the basis for calculating interest, proportional to the time elapsed and the amount borrowed. Assume that you will pay interest annually, at the end of each annual period rather than at the beginning.
1/ THE CONCEPT OF EFFECTIVE ANNUAL RATE
Now what happens when interest is paid not once but several times per year?
Suppose that somebody lends you money at 10% but says (somewhere in the fine print at the bottom of the page) that interest will have to be paid on a half-yearly basis. For example, suppose you borrowed €100 on 1 January and then had to pay €5 in interest on 1 July and €5 on 1 January of the following year, as well as the €100 in principal at the same date.
This is not the same as borrowing €100 and repaying €110 one year later. The amount of interest may be the same (5 + 5 = 10), but the payment schedule is not. In the first case, you will have to pay €5 on 1 July (just before leaving on summer holiday), which you could have kept until the following 1 January in the second case. In the first case you pay €5, instead of investing it for six months as you could have done in the second case.
As a result, the loan in the first case costs more than a loan at 10% with interest due annually. Its effective rate is not 10%, since interest is not being paid on the benchmark annual terms.
To avoid comparing apples and oranges, a financial officer must take into account the effective date of disbursement. We know that one euro today is not the same as one euro tomorrow. Obviously, the financial officer wants to postpone expenditure and accelerate receipts, thereby having the money work for them. So, naturally, the repayment schedule matters when calculating the rate.
Which is the best approach to take? If the interest rate is 10%, with interest payable every six months, then the interest rate is 5% for six months. We then have to calculate an effective annual rate (and not for six months), which is our point of reference and our constant concern.
Two rates referring to two different maturities are said to be equivalent if the future value of the same amount at the same date is the same with the two rates.
In our example, the lender receives €5 on 1 July which, compounded over six months, becomes 5 + (10% × 5) / 2 = €5.25 on the following 1 January, the date on which they receive the second €5 interest payment. So, over one year, they will have received €10.25 in interest on a €100 investment.
Therefore, the effective annual rate is 10.25%. This is the real cost of the loan, since the return for the lender is equal to the cost for the borrower.
If the apparent rate (or nominal rate) (ra) is to be paid n times per year, then the effective annual rate (t) is obtained by compounding this nominal rate n times after first dividing it by n:
where n is the number of interest payments in the year and ra / n the proportional rate during one period, or t = (1 + ra / n)n − 1.
In our example:
The effective interest rate is thus 10.25%, while the nominal rate is 10%.
It should be common sense that an investment at 10% paying interest every six months produces a higher return at year end than an investment paying interest annually. In the first case, interest is compounded after six months and thus produces interest on interest for the next six months. Obviously, a loan on which interest is due every six months will cost more than one on which interest is charged annually.
The table below gives the returns produced by an investment (a loan) at 10% with varying instalment frequencies:
The effective annual rate can be calculated on any timescale. For example, a financial officer might wish to use continuous rates. This might mean, for example, a 10% rate producing €100, paid out evenly throughout the year on a principal of €1,000. As long as the financial officer is familiar with a rate corresponding to interest paid once a year, they will keep this rate as a reference rate.
By definition, IRR and yields to maturity are effective annual rates.
2/ THE CONCEPT OF PROPORTIONAL RATE
In our example of a loan at 10%, we would say that the 5% rate over six months is proportional to the 10% rate over one year. More generally, two rates are proportional if they are in the same proportion to each other as the periods to which they apply.
For example, 10% per year is proportional to 5% per half-year or 2.5% per quarter, but 5% half-yearly is not equivalent to 10% annually. Effective annual rate and proportional rates are therefore two completely different concepts that should not be confused.
Proportional rates serve only to simplify calculations, but they hide the true cost of a loan. Only the effective annual rate (10.25%/year) gives the true cost, unlike the proportional rate (10%/year).
When the time span between two interest payment dates is less than one year, the proportional rate is lower than the effective annual rate (10% is less than 10.25%). When maturity is more than a year, the proportional rate overestimates the effective annual rate. This is rare, whereas the first case is quite frequent on money markets, where money is lent or borrowed for short periods of time.
As we will see, the bond market practice can be misleading for the investor focusing on par value: bonds are sold above or below par value, the number of days used in calculating interest can vary, bonds may be repaid above par value, and so on. And, most importantly, on the secondary market, a bond’s present value depends on fluctuations in market interest rates.
Section 17.5 SOME MORE FINANCIAL MATHEMATICS: LOAN REPAYMENT TERMS
The first problem is how and when will you pay off the loan?
Repayment terms constitute the method of amortisation of the loan. Take the following examples.
1/ BULLET REPAYMENT
The entire loan is paid back at maturity.
The cash flow table would look like this:
Period | Principal still due | Interest | Amortisation of principal | Annuity |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1,000 | 100 | 0 | 100 |
2 | 1,000 | 100 | 0 | 100 |
3 | 1,000 | 100 | 0 | 100 |
4 | 1,000 | 100 | 1,000 | 1,100 |
Total debt service is the annual sum of interest and principal to be paid back. This is also called debt servicing at each due date.
2/ CONSTANT (OR LINEAR) AMORTISATION
Each year, the borrower pays off a constant proportion of the principal, corresponding to 1/n, where n is the initial maturity of the loan.
The cash flow table would look like this:
Period | Principal still due | Interest | Amortisation of principal | Annuity |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1,000 | 100 | 250 | 350 |
2 | 750 | 75 | 250 | 325 |
3 | 500 | 50 | 250 | 300 |
4 | 250 | 25 | 250 | 275 |
3/ EQUAL INSTALMENTS
The borrower may want to allocate a fixed sum to the service of debt (capital repayment and interests).
Based on the discounting method described previously, consider a constant annuity A, such that the sum of the four discounted annuities is equal to the present value of the principal, or €1,000:
This means that the NPV of the 10% loan is nil; in other words, the 10% nominal rate of interest is also the internal rate of return of the loan.
Using the formula from Section 16.5, paragraph 1, the previous formula can be expressed as follows:
A = €315.47. Hence, the following repayment schedule:
Period | Principal still due | Interest | Amortisation of principal | Annuity |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1,000 | 100 | 215.47 | 315.47 |
2 | 784.53 | 78.45 | 237.02 | 315.47 |
3 | 547.51 | 54.75 | 260.72 | 315.47 |
4 | 286.79 | 28.68 | 286.79 | 315.47 |
In this case, the interest for each period is indeed equivalent to 10% of the remaining principal (i.e. the nominal rate of return) and the loan is fully paid off in the fourth year. Internal rate of return and nominal rate of interest are identical, as calculation is on an annual basis and the repayment of principal coincides with the payment of interest.
Regardless of which side of the loan you are on, both work the same way. We start with invested (or borrowed) capital, which produces income (or incurs interest costs) at the end of each period. Eventually, the loan is then either paid back (leading to a decline in future revenues or in interest to be paid) or held on to, thus producing a constant flow of income (or a constant cost of interest).
4/ INTEREST AND PRINCIPAL BOTH PAID WHEN THE LOAN MATURES
In this case, the borrower pays nothing until the loan matures. The sum that the borrower will have to pay at maturity is none other than the future value of the sum borrowed, capitalised at the interest rate of the loan:
This is how the repayment schedule would look:
Period | Principal and interest still due | Amortisation of principal | Interest payments | Annuity |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 1,100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
3 | 1,219 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
4 | 1,331 | 1,331 | 1,331 | 1,464.1 |
This is a zero-coupon loan.
SUMMARY
QUESTIONS
EXERCISES
ANSWERS
BIBLIOGRAPHY
NOTE
****PART TWO. THE RISK OF SECURITIES AND THE REQUIRED RATE OF RETURN
After having covered the basics of finance (discounting, capitalisation, value and interest rates), it is time to delve deeper into another fundamental concept: risk. Risk is the uncertainty over future asset values and future returns. For better or for worse, without risk, finance would be quite boring!
Risk means uncertainty today over the cash flows and value of an asset tomorrow. Of course, it is possible to review all the factors that could have a negative or positive impact on an asset, quantify each one and measure the total impact on the asset’s value. In reality, it is infinitely more practical to boil all the risks down to a single figure.
Chapter 18. RISK AND RETURN
The spice of finance
Investors who buy financial securities face risks because they do not know with certainty the future selling price of their securities, nor the cash flows they will receive in the meantime. This chapter will try to explain and measure this risk, and also examine its repercussions.
Section 18.1 SOURCES OF RISK
There are various risks involved in financial securities, including:
- Industrial, commercial and labour risks, etc.
There are so many types of risk in this category that we cannot list them all here. They include lack of competitiveness, emergence of new competitors, technological breakthroughs, an inadequate sales network, strikes and so on. These risks tend to lower cash flow expectations and thus have an immediate impact on the value of the stock.
- Liquidity risk
This is the risk of not being able to sell an asset at its fair value as a result of either a liquidity discount or the complete absence of a market or buyers.
- Credit risk
This is the risk that a creditor will lose their entire investment if a debtor cannot repay them in full, even if the debtor’s assets are liquidated. Traders call this counterparty risk.
- Foreign exchange (FX) risk
Fluctuations in exchange rates can lead to a loss of value of assets denominated in foreign currencies. Similarly, higher exchange rates can increase the value of debt denominated in foreign currencies when translated into the company’s reporting currency base.
- Interest rate risk
The holder of financial securities is exposed to the risk of interest rate fluctuations. Even if the issuer fulfils their commitments entirely, there is still the risk of a capital loss or, at the very least, an opportunity loss.
- Systemic risk
This is the risk of collapse of the overall financial system through the bankruptcy chain and the domino effect linked to the interdependency of market players.
- Political risk
This includes risks created by a particular political situation or decisions by political authorities, such as nationalisation without sufficient compensation, revolution, exclusion from certain markets, discriminatory tax policies, inability to repatriate capital, etc.
- Regulatory risk
A change in the law or in regulations can directly affect the return expected in a particular sector. Pharmaceuticals, banks and insurance companies, among others, tend to be on the front lines here.
- Inflation risk
This is the risk that the investor will recover their investment with a depreciated currency, i.e. that they will receive a return below the inflation rate. A flagrant historical example is the hyperinflation in Germany in the 1920s.
- The risk of a fraud
This is the risk that some parties (internal or external) will lie or cheat. The most common examples are insider trading, CEO fraud or ransomware.
- Natural disaster risks
These include storms, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, cyclones, tidal waves, etc., which destroy assets, or of a pandemic that stops the activity or restrains it a lot. The recent past has demonstrated that those risks cannot be neglected.
- Economic risk
This type of risk is characterised by bull or bear markets, anticipation of an acceleration or a slowdown in business activity or changes in labour productivity.
The list is nearly endless; however, at this point it is important to highlight two points:
- most financial analysis mentioned and developed in this book tends to generalise the concept of risk and highlight its impact on valuations, rather than analysing it in depth. So, given the extent to which markets are efficient and evaluate risk correctly, it is not necessary to redo what others have already done; and
- risk is always present. The so-called risk-free rate, to be discussed later, is simply a manner of speaking. Risk is always present, and to say that risk can be eliminated is either to be excessively confident or to be unable to think about the future – both very serious faults for an investor.
Obviously, any serious investment study should begin with a precise analysis of the risks involved.
The knowledge gleaned from analysts with extensive experience in the business, mixed with common sense, allows us to classify risks into two categories:
- economic risks (political, natural, inflation, fraud and other risks), which threaten cash flows from investments and which come from the “real economy”; and
- financial risks (liquidity, currency, interest rate and other risks), which do not directly affect cash flow, but nonetheless do come into the financial sphere. These risks are due to external financial events, and not to the nature of the issuer.
Section 18.2 RISK AND FLUCTUATION IN THE VALUE OF A SECURITY
All of the aforementioned risks can penalise the financial performance of companies and their future cash flows. Obviously, if a risk materialises that seriously hurts company cash flows, then investors will seek to sell their securities. Consequently, the value of the security falls.
Moreover, if a company is exposed to significant risk, then some investors will be reluctant to buy its securities. Even before risk materialises, investors’ perceptions that a company’s future cash flows are uncertain or volatile will serve to reduce the value of its securities.
Most modern finance is based on the premise that investors seek to reduce the uncertainty of their future cash flows. By its very nature, risk increases the uncertainty of an asset’s future cash flow, and it therefore follows that such uncertainty will be priced into the market value of a security.
Investors consider risk only to the extent that it affects the value of the security. Risks can affect value by changing anticipations of cash flows or the rate at which these cash flows are discounted.
To begin with, it is important to realise that in corporate finance no fundamental distinction is made between the risk of asset revaluation and the risk of asset devaluation.
That is to say, whether investors expect the value of an asset to rise (upside) or decrease (downside) is immaterial.1 It is the fact that risk exists in the first place that is of significance and affects how investors behave.
Consider, for example, a security with the following cash flows expected for years 1 to 4:
Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Cash flow (in €) | 100 | 120 | 150 | 190 |
Imagine the value of this security is estimated to be €2,000 in five years. Assuming a 9% discounting rate, its value today would be:
If a sudden sharp rise in interest rates raises the discounting rate to 13%, the value of the security becomes:
The security’s value has fallen by 15% whereas cash flows have not changed.
However, if the company comes out with a new product that raises projected cash flow by 20%, with no further change in the discounting rate, the security’s value then becomes:
The security’s value increases for reasons specific to the company, not because of a fall of interest rates in the market.
Now, suppose that there is an improvement in the overall economic outlook that lowers the discounting rate to 10%. If there is no change in expected cash flows, the stock’s value would be:
Again, there has been no change in the stock’s intrinsic characteristics and yet its value has risen by 12%.
If there is stiff price competition, then previous cash flow projections will have to be adjusted downward by 10%. If all cash flows fall by the same percentage and the discounting rate remains constant, the value of the company becomes:
Once again, the security’s value decreases for reasons specific to the company, not because of a fall in the market.
In the previous example, a European investor would have lost 10% of their investment (from €2,009 to €1,808). If, in the interim, the euro had risen from $1.10 to $1.31, a US investor would have gained 7% (from $2,210 to $2,365).
A closer analysis shows that some securities are more volatile than others, i.e. their price fluctuates more widely. We say that these stocks are “riskier”. The riskier a stock is, the more volatile its price, and vice versa. Conversely, the less risky a security is, the less volatile its price, and vice versa.
Volatility can be measured mathematically by variance and standard deviation.
Typically, it is safe to assume that risk dissipates over the long term. The erratic fluctuations in the short term give way to the clear outperformance of equities over bonds, and bonds over money-market investments. The chart below tends to back up this point of view. It presents data on the path of wealth (POW) for the three asset classes. The POW measures the growth of €1 invested in any given asset, assuming that all proceeds are reinvested in the same asset.
As is easily seen from the chart, risk does dissipate, but only over the long term. In other words, an investor must be able to invest their funds and then do without them during this long-term timeframe. It sometimes requires strong nerves not to give in to the temptation to sell when prices collapse, as happened with stock markets in 1929, 1974, 2001, 2008, or 2011.
Since 1900, UK stocks have delivered an average annual return after inflation of 5.4%. Yet, during 39 of those years the returns were negative, in particular in 1974, when investors lost 57% on a representative portfolio of UK stocks.
And in worst-case scenarios, it must not be overlooked that some financial markets vanished entirely, including the Russian equity market after the 1917 revolution, the German bond market with the hyperinflation of 1921–1923, the Japanese and German equity markets in 1945, and the Chinese equity market in 1949. Over the stretch of one century, these may be exceptional events, but they have enormous repercussions when they do occur.
Section 18.3 TOOLS FOR MEASURING RETURN AND RISK
1/ EXPECTED RETURN
To begin, it must be realised that a security’s rate of return and the value of a financial security are actually two sides of the same coin. The rate of return will be considered first.
The holding-period return is calculated from the sum total of cash flows for a given investment, i.e. income, in the form of interest or dividends earned on the funds invested and the resulting capital gain or loss when the security is sold.
If just one period is examined, then the return on a financial security can be expressed as follows:
Here, F1 is the income received by the investor during the period, V0 is the value of the security at the beginning of the period and V1 is the value of the security at the end of the period.
In an uncertain world, investors cannot calculate their returns in advance, as the value of the security is unknown at the end of the period. In some cases, the same is true for the income to be received during the period.
Therefore, investors use the concept of expected return, which is the average of possible returns weighted by their likelihood of occurring. Familiarity with the science of statistics should aid in understanding the notion of expected outcome.
Given security A with 12 chances out of 100 of showing a return of −22%, 74 chances out of 100 of showing a return of 6% and 14 chances out of 100 of showing a return of 16%, its expected return would then be:
More generally, expected return or expected outcome is equal to:
where rt is a possible return and pt the probability of it occurring.
2/ STANDARD DEVIATION, A RISK-ANALYSIS TOOL
Intuitively, the greater the risk on an investment, the wider the variations in its return, and the more uncertain that return is. While the holder of a government bond is sure to receive their coupons (unless the government goes bankrupt!), this is far from true for the shareholder of a biotech company. They could lose everything, show a decent return or hit the jackpot.
Therefore, the risk carried by a security can be looked at in terms of the dispersion of its possible returns around an average return. Consequently, risk can be measured mathematically by the variance of its return, i.e. by the sum of the squares of the deviation of each return from expected outcome, weighted by the likelihood of each of the possible returns occurring, or:
Standard deviation in returns is the most often used measure to evaluate the risk of an investment. Standard deviation is expressed as the square root of the variance:
The variance of investment A above is therefore:
where V(r) = 1%, which corresponds to a standard deviation of 10%.
Section 18.4 MARKET AND SPECIFIC RISK
Risk in finance is materialised by fluctuation of value, which is equivalent to fluctuation of returns. Hence, one figure summarises all of the different risks, the knowledge of which does not really matter. Only the impact on value is important.
Fluctuations in the value of a security can be due to:
- fluctuations in the entire market. The market could rise as a whole after an unexpected cut in interest rates, stronger-than-expected economic growth figures, etc. All stocks will then rise, although some will move more than others. The same thing can occur when the entire market moves downward; or
- factors specific to the company that do not affect the market as a whole, such as a major order, the bankruptcy of a competitor, a new regulation affecting the company’s products, a scandal over fraud on product tests, discovering contaminated products, etc.
These two sources of fluctuation produce two types of risk: market risk and specific risk.
- Market, systematic or undiversifiable risk is due to trends in the entire economy, tax policy, interest rates, inflation, etc. Remember, this is the risk of the security correlated to market risk. To varying degrees, market risk affects all securities. For example, if a nation switches to a 35-hour working week with no adjustment in wages, all companies will be affected. However, in such a case, it stands to reason that textile makers will be affected more than cement companies.
- Specific, intrinsic or idiosyncratic risk is independent of market-wide phenomena and is due to factors affecting just the one company, such as mismanagement, a factory fire, an invention that renders a company’s main product line obsolete, etc. (In the next chapter, it will be shown how this risk can be eliminated by diversification, a reason why this risk is also sometimes call diversifiable risk.)
Market volatility can be economic or financial in origin, but it can also result from anticipation of flows (dividends, capital gains, etc.) or a variation in the cost of equity. For example, an overheating of the economy could raise the cost of equity (i.e. after an increase in the central bank rate) and reduce anticipated cash flows due to weaker demand. Together, these two factors could exert a double downward pressure on financial securities.
Since market risk and specific risk are independent, they can be measured independently and we can apply Pythagoras’s theorem (in more mathematical terms, the two risk vectors are orthogonal) to the overall risk of a single security:
The systematic risk presented by a financial security is frequently expressed in terms of its sensitivity to market fluctuations. This is done via a linear regression between periodic market returns (rMt) and the periodic returns of each security J: rJt. This yields the regression line expressed in the following equation:
βJ is a parameter specific to each investment J and it expresses the relationship between fluctuations in the value of J and the market. It is thus a coefficient of volatility or of sensitivity. We call it the beta or the beta coefficient.
A security’s total risk is reflected in the standard deviation of its return, s(rJ).
A security’s market risk is therefore equal to βJ × σ(rM), where σ(rM) is the standard deviation of the market return. Therefore it is also proportional to the beta, i.e. the security’s market-linked volatility. The higher the beta, the greater the market risk borne by the security. If β >1, then the security’s returns move at a ratio of greater than 1:1 with respect to the market. Conversely, securities whose beta is below 1 are less affected by market fluctuations.
The specific risk of security J is equal to the standard deviation of the different residuals εJ of the regression line, expressed as σ(εJ), i.e. the variations in the stock that are not tied to market variations.
This can be expressed mathematically as follows:
Section 18.5 THE BETA COEFFICIENT
1/ CALCULATING BETA
β measures a security’s sensitivity to market risk. For security J, it is mathematically obtained by performing a regression analysis of security returns versus market returns.
Hence:
Here, Cov(rJ, rM) is the covariance of the return of security J with that of the market, and V(rM) is the variance of the market return. This can be represented as:
More intuitively, β corresponds to the slope of the regression of the security’s return versus that of the market. The line we obtain is defined as the characteristic line of a security.
As an example, we have calculated the β for Orange and it stands at 0.61.
The β of Orange used to be higher in the late 1990s (1.83). The stock was more volatile than the market, its market risk was high. With the mobile telecom and Internet market maturing, the industry became less risky and the β of Orange is now 1, as shown in the following graph:
2/ PARAMETERS BEHIND BETA
By definition, the market β is equal to 1. β of fixed-income securities ranges from about 0 to 0.5. The β of equities is usually higher than 0.5, and normally between 0.5 and 1.5. We are not aware of any simple investment products with a negative β, and shares with a β greater than 2 are quite exceptional.
To illustrate, the table below presents betas, as of 2019, of the members of the Euro Stoxx 50 index:
Beta of the Eurostoxx 50 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Linde | 0.47 | L’Oréal | 0.76 | SAP | 0.92 | Siemens | 1.07 | AXA | 1.21 |
Royal Ahold Delhaize | 0.59 | Inditex | 0.76 | AB InBev | 0.92 | Bayer | 1.10 | ASML | 1.27 |
Amadeus | 0.61 | Unilever | 0.77 | Vivendi | 0.92 | Telefonica | 1.12 | Volkswagen | 1.35 |
Danone | 0.68 | Eni | 0.79 | Deutsche Post | 0.97 | Philips | 1.12 | ING | 1.38 |
Deutsche Telekom | 0.68 | Adidas | 0.81 | Total | 0.97 | Daimler | 1.15 | BNP Paribas | 1.39 |
EssilorLuxottica | 0.69 | Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield | 0.82 | Fresenius | 1.01 | Airbus | 1.16 | Nokia | 1.40 |
Orange | 0.72 | Munich Re | 0.82 | Safran | 1.03 | LVMH | 1.17 | BBVA | 1.42 |
Sanofi | 0.72 | Vinci | 0.87 | Allianz | 1.03 | Kering | 1.18 | Société Générale | 1.46 |
Iberdrola | 0.75 | Engie | 0.88 | BMW | 1.06 | Schneider | 1.21 | Intesa Sanpaolo | 1.46 |
Enel | 0.75 | Air Liquide | 0.91 | BASF | 1.07 | CRH | 1.21 | Santander | 1.56 |
Source: Factset, 2019
For a given security, the following parameters explain the value of beta:
(a) Sensitivity of the stock’s sector to the state of the economy
The greater the effect of the state of the economy on a business sector, the higher its β is – temporary work is one such highly exposed sector. Another example is automakers, which tend to have a β close to 1. There is an old saying in North America, “As General Motors goes, so goes the economy”. This serves to highlight how GM’s financial health is to some extent a reflection of the health of the entire economy. Thus, beta analysis can show how GM will be directly affected by macroeconomic shifts.
(b) Cost structure
The greater the proportion of fixed costs to total costs, the higher the breakeven point, and the more volatile the cash flows. Companies that have a high ratio of fixed costs (such as cement makers) have a high β, while those with a low ratio of fixed costs (such as mass-market service retailers) have a low β.
(c) Financial structure
The greater a company’s debt, the greater its financing costs. Financing costs are fixed costs which increase a company’s breakeven point and, hence, its earnings volatility. The heavier a company’s debt or the more heavily leveraged the company is, the higher the β of its shares is.
(d) Visibility on company performance
The quality of management and the clarity and quantity of information the market has about a company will all have a direct influence on its beta. All other factors being equal, if a company gives out little or low-quality information, the β of its stock will be higher as the market will factor the lack of visibility into the share price.
(e) Earnings growth
The higher the forecast rate of earnings growth, the higher the β. Most of a company’s value in cash flows is far down the road and thus highly sensitive to any change in assumptions.
Section 18.6 PORTFOLIO RISK
1/ THE FORMULA APPROACH
Consider the following two stocks, Heineken and Criteo, which have the following characteristics:
Heineken % | Criteo % | |
---|---|---|
Expected return: E(r) | 6 | 13 |
Risk: σ(r) | 10 | 17 |
As is clear from this table, Criteo offers a higher expected return while presenting a greater risk than Heineken. Inversely, Heineken offers a lower expected return but also presents less risk.
These two investments are not directly comparable. Investing in Criteo means accepting more risk in exchange for a higher return, whereas investing in Heineken means playing it relatively safe.
Therefore, there is no clear-cut basis by which to choose between Criteo and Heineken. However, the problem can be looked at in another way: would buying a combination of Criteo and Heineken shares be preferable to buying just one or the other?
It is likely that the investor will seek to diversify and create a portfolio made up of Criteo shares (in a proportion of XC) and Heineken shares (in a proportion of XH). This way, they will expect a return equal to the weighted average return of each of these two stocks, or:
where XC + XH = 1.
Depending on the proportion of Criteo shares in the portfolio (XC), the portfolio would look like this:
XC (%) | 0 | 25 | 33.3 | 50 | 66.7 | 75 | 100 |
E(rH,C) (%) | 6 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 10.7 | 11.3 | 13 |
The portfolio’s variance is determined as follows:
where Cov(rH, rC) is the covariance. It measures the degree to which Heineken and Criteo fluctuate together. It is equal to:
Here, pi,j is the probability of joint occurrence and ρH,C is the correlation coefficient of returns offered by Heineken and Criteo. The correlation coefficient is a number between −1 (where the correlation between returns on the two stocks will be perfectly negative) and 1 (where the correlation between returns on the two stocks will be perfectly positive). Correlation coefficients are usually positive, as most stocks rise together in a bullish market and fall together in a bearish market.
By plugging the variables back into our variance equation above, we obtain:
Given that:
it is therefore possible to say:
or:
Therefore, the overall risk of a portfolio consisting of Criteo and Heineken shares is less than the weighted average of the risks of the two stocks.
Assuming that ρH,C is equal to 0.5 (from the figures in the above example), we obtain the following:
X (%) | 0 | 25 | 33.3 | 50 | 66.7 | 75 | 100 |
σ(rH,C) (%) | 10.0 | 10.3 | 10.7 | 11.8 | 13.3 | 14.2 | 17.0 |
Hence, a portfolio consisting of 50% Criteo and 50% Heineken has a standard deviation of 11.8% or less than the average of Criteo and Heineken, which is (50% × 17%) + (50% × 10%) = 13.5%.
On a chart, it looks like this:
Only a correlation coefficient of 1 creates a portfolio risk that is equal to the average of its component risks.
CORRELATION BETWEEN DIFFERENT STOCK MARKETS (2014–2019)
Brazil | China | France | Germany | Morocco | Switzerland | UK | United States | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brazil | 1.00 | 0.30 | 0.68 | 0.67 | 0.82 | 0.38 | 0.72 | 0.90 |
China | 0.30 | 1.00 | 0.66 | 0.70 | 0.44 | 0.52 | 0.36 | 0.47 |
France | 0.68 | 0.66 | 1.00 | 0.97 | 0.78 | 0.69 | 0.82 | 0.84 |
Germany | 0.67 | 0.70 | 0.97 | 1.00 | 0.84 | 0.63 | 0.84 | 0.83 |
Morocco | 0.82 | 0.44 | 0.78 | 0.84 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 0.83 | 0.85 |
Switzerland | 0.38 | 0.52 | 0.69 | 0.63 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.54 | 0.46 |
UK | 0.72 | 0.36 | 0.82 | 0.84 | 0.83 | 0.54 | 1.00 | 0.77 |
United States | 0.90 | 0.47 | 0.84 | 0.83 | 0.85 | 0.46 | 0.77 | 1.00 |
Source: Data from Factset
Emerging markets still bring diversification and are more correlated among themselves than with developed countries.
However, sector diversification is still highly efficient thanks to the low correlation coefficients among different industries:
CORRELATION BETWEEN ECONOMIC SECTORS WORLDWIDE (2014–2019)
Sector | Banks | Automotive | Pharmaceuticals & Biotech | Oil & Gas | Construction | Softwares | Energy | Agriculture & Food chain | Retailing | Metals & Mining | Aerospace & Defence |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Banks | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.52 | 0.35 | 0.66 | 0.74 | 0.26 | 0.56 | 0.66 | 0.71 | 0.79 |
Automotive | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.49 | 0.24 | 0.43 | 0.28 | 0.21 | 0.31 | 0.24 | 0.38 | 0.35 |
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech | 0.52 | 0.49 | 1.00 | −0.20 | 0.54 | 0.57 | −0.30 | 0.73 | 0.64 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
Oil & Gas | 0.35 | 0.24 | −0.20 | 1.00 | −0.25 | 0.04 | 0.99 | −0.25 | −0.03 | 0.79 | 0.11 |
Construction | 0.66 | 0.43 | 0.54 | −0.25 | 1.00 | 0.77 | −0.34 | 0,89 | 0,74 | 0,24 | 0.76 |
Softwares | 0.74 | 0.28 | 0.57 | 0.04 | 0.77 | 1.00 | −0.10 | 0.78 | 0.97 | 0.48 | 0.99 |
Energy | 0.26 | 0.21 | −0.30 | 0.99 | −0.34 | −0.10 | 1.00 | −0.36 | −0.16 | 0.72 | −0.02 |
Agriculture & Food chain | 0.56 | 0.31 | 0.73 | −0.25 | 0.89 | 0.78 | −0.36 | 1.00 | 0.78 | 0.15 | 0.76 |
Retailing | 0.66 | 0.24 | 0.64 | −0.03 | 0.74 | 0.97 | −0.16 | 0.78 | 1.00 | 0.36 | 0.95 |
Metals & Mining | 0.71 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.79 | 0.24 | 0.48 | 0.72 | 0.15 | 0.36 | 1.00 | 0.55 |
Aerospace & Defence | 0.79 | 0.35 | 0.56 | 0.11 | 0.76 | 0.99 | −0.02 | 0.76 | 0.95 | 0.55 | 1.00 |
Source: Data from Factset
Section 18.7 CHOOSING AMONG SEVERAL RISKY ASSETS AND THE EFFICIENT FRONTIER
This section will address the following questions: why is it correct to say that the beta of an asset should be measured in relation to the market portfolio? Above all, what is the market portfolio?
To begin, it is useful to study the impact of the correlation coefficient on diversification. Again, the same two securities will be analysed: Criteo (C) and Heineken (H). By varying ρH,C between −1 and +1, we obtain:
Proportion of C shares in portfolio (XC) (%) | 0 | 25 | 33.3 | 50 | 66.7 | 75 | 100 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Return on the portfolio: E(rH,C) (%) | 6.0 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 10.7 | 11.3 | 13.0 | |
Portfolio risk σ(rH,C) (%) | ρH,C = −1 | 10.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 3.5 | 8.0 | 10.3 | 17.0 |
ρH,C = −0.5 | 10.0 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 10.1 | 11.7 | 17.0 | |
ρH,C = 0 | 10.0 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 11.8 | 13.0 | 17.0 | |
ρH,C = 0.3 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 11.1 | 12.7 | 13.7 | 17.0 | |
ρH,C = 0.5 | 10.0 | 10.3 | 10.7 | 11.8 | 13.3 | 14.2 | 17.0 | |
ρH,C = 1 | 10.0 | 11.8 | 12.3 | 13.5 | 14.7 | 15.3 | 17.0 |
Note the following caveats:
- If Criteo and Heineken were perfectly correlated (i.e. the correlation coefficient was 1), then diversification would have no effect. All possible portfolios would lie on a line linking the risk/return point of Criteo with that of Heineken. Risk would increase in direct proportion to Criteo’s stock added.
- If the two stocks were perfectly inversely correlated (correlation coefficient −1), then diversification would be total. However, there is little chance of this occurring, as both companies are exposed to the same economic conditions.
- Generally speaking, Criteo and Heineken are positively, but imperfectly, correlated and diversification is based on the desired amount of risk.
With a fixed correlation coefficient of 0.3, there are portfolios that offer different returns at the same level of risk. Thus, a portfolio consisting of two-thirds Heineken and one-third Criteo shows the same risk (10%) as a portfolio consisting of just Heineken, but returns 8.3% versus only 6% for Heineken.
There is no reason for an investor to choose a given combination if another offers a better (efficient) return at the same level of risk.
Efficient portfolios (such as a combination of Criteo and Heineken shares) offer investors the best risk–return ratio (i.e. minimum risk for a given return).
For any portfolio that does not lie on the efficient frontier, another can be found that, given the level of risk, offers a greater return or that, at the same return, entails less risk.
With a larger number of stocks, i.e. more than just two, the investor can improve their efficient frontier, as shown in the following chart.
Section 18.8 CHOOSING BETWEEN SEVERAL RISKY ASSETS AND A RISK-FREE ASSET: THE CAPITAL MARKET LINE
1/ RISK-FREE ASSETS
By definition, risk-free assets are those whose returns, the risk-free rate (rF), are certain. The standard deviation of their return is thus zero. Traditionally, this is illustrated with government bonds, although we can no longer assume that the government cannot go bankrupt, given the high levels of debt in many countries. This has now led us to view the 1-month Treasury bill as risk-free (e.g. the German bill for the Eurozone, the US Treasury bill for the US).
If a portfolio has a risk-free asset F in proportion (1 − XH) and the portfolio consists exclusively of Heineken shares, then the portfolio’s expected return E(rH,F) will be equal to:
The portfolio’s expected return is equal to the return of the risk-free asset, plus a risk premium, multiplied by the proportion of Heineken shares in the portfolio. The risk premium is the difference between the expected return on Heineken and the return on the risk-free asset.
How much risk does the portfolio carry? Its risk will simply be the risk of the Heineken stock, commensurate with its proportion in the portfolio, expressed as follows:
If investors want to increase their expected return, they will increase XH. They could even borrow money at the risk-free rate and use the funds to buy Heineken stock, but the risk carried by their portfolio would rise commensurately.
By combining the previous two equations, we can eliminate XH, thus deriving the following equation:
Continuing with the Heineken example, and assuming that rF is 3%, with 50% of the portfolio consisting of a risk-free asset, the following is obtained:
Hence:
For a portfolio that includes a risk-free asset, there is a linear relationship between expected return and risk. To lower a portfolio’s risk, simply liquidate some of the portfolio’s stock and put the proceeds into a risk-free asset. To increase risk, it is only necessary to borrow at the risk-free rate and invest in a stock with risk.
2/ RISK-FREE ASSETS AND THE EFFICIENT FRONTIER
The risk–return profile can be chosen by combining risk-free assets and a stock portfolio (the alpha portfolio on the chart below). This new portfolio will be on a line that connects the risk-free rate to the portfolio alpha that has been chosen. But as we can observe on the chart, this portfolio is not the best portfolio. Portfolio P provides a better return for the same risk. Portfolio P is situated on the line tangential to the efficient frontier. There is no other portfolio than P that offers a better return for the same amount of risk-taking. What is portfolio P made up of? It’s made up of a combination of the portfolio of risky assets M (located on the efficient frontier at the tangential point with the line originating from the risk-free rate) and the risk-free asset.
Investors’ taste for risk can vary, yet the above graph demonstrates that the shrewd investor should be investing in portfolio M. It is then a matter of adjusting the risk exposure by adding or subtracting risk-free assets.
If all investors acquire the same portfolio, then this portfolio must contain all existing shares. To understand why, suppose that stock i was not in portfolio M. In that case, nobody would want to buy it, since all investors hold portfolio M. Consequently, there would be no market for it and it would cease to exist.
The weighting of stock i in a market portfolio will necessarily be the value of the single security divided by the sum of all the assets. As we are assuming fair value, this will be the fair value of i.
3/ CAPITAL MARKET LINE
The expected return of a portfolio consisting of the market portfolio and the risk-free asset can be expressed by the following equation:
where E(rP) is the portfolio’s expected return, rF the risk-free rate, E(rM) the return on the market portfolio, σP the portfolio’s risk and σM the risk of the market portfolio.
This is the equation of the capital market line.
The most efficient portfolios in terms of return and risk will always be on the capital market line. The tangent point at M constitutes the optimal combination for all investors. If we introduce the assumption that all investors have homogeneous expectations, i.e. that they have the same opinions on expected returns and risk of financial assets, then the efficient frontier of risky assets will be the same for all of them. The capital market line is the same for all investors and thus each of them would hold a combination of the portfolio M and the risk-free asset.
It is reasonable to say that the portfolio M includes all the assets weighted for their market capitalisation. This is defined as the market portfolio. The market portfolio is the portfolio that all investors hold a fraction of, proportional to the market’s capitalisation.
Section 18.9 HOW PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT WORKS
The financial theory described so far seems to give a clear suggestion: in efficient markets, invest only in highly diversified mutual funds and in government bonds.
The asset management industry is one of the most important industries in the modern economy, managing €55,000bn worldwide (40% of this amount being invested in shares and 22% in bonds, the rest in short-term debts and multi-assets). Managers are employees of banks, insurance companies or independent.
However, as our readers know, not all investors subscribe to this theory. Some take other approaches, described below. Sometimes investors combine different approaches.
The strategy that is closest to financial theory is index tracking, also known as passive management. It consists of trying to follow the performance of a market index. Index trackers are ideal tools for the investor who believes strongly in market efficiency. They also benefit from scale effect and therefore have reduced operating costs. Index trackers can be listed on a market and are then called exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Most stock markets now have a specific market segment for the listing of trackers. Across global markets, over 7,845 trackers are listed for a total amount of over $8,331bn.
In terms of portfolio management, we shall consider the difference between a top-down and a bottom-up approach. In a top-down approach, investors focus on the asset class (shares, bonds, money-market funds) and the international markets in which they wish to invest (i.e. the individual securities chosen are of little importance). In a bottom-up approach (commonly known as stock-picking), investors choose stocks on the basis of their specific characteristics, not the sector in which they belong. The goal of the bottom-up approach is to find that rare pearl, i.e. the stock that is undervalued by the market, which is identified through fundamental analysis, a method of seeking the intrinsic value of a stock. Investors following this approach believe that sooner or later, market value will approach intrinsic value.
These stocks can be growth stocks, i.e. companies who are operating in a fast-growing industry; or value stocks, i.e. firms operating in more mature sectors but which offer long-term performance. At the opposite end you will find yield stocks whose return comes almost exclusively from the dividend paid, and their market price is then pretty stable.
Investors who focus on technical analysis, the so-called chartists, do not seek to determine the value of a stock. Instead, these investors conduct detailed studies of trends in a stock’s market value and transaction volumes in the hope of spotting short-term trends.
Another type of fund management has arisen since the mid-1990s, so-called alternative management, which gives itself total freedom of investment tools, whether listed or not: equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, etc., and of investment styles: buying, short selling, derivatives (see Chapter 23), heavy reliance on debt, and shareholder activism. Its objective is not to duplicate the performance of any index, but to obtain positive returns regardless of the state of the market and thus to offer additional diversification. An example of alternative management is the hedge fund, which is a speculative fund seeking high returns and relying heavily on derivatives, and options in particular. Hedge funds use leverage and commit capital in excess of their equity.
At the beginning of 2021, over 7,000 hedge funds were active in the world and had about $3,800bn under management.
In recent years, hedge funds’ risk-adjusted performance has been above that of traditional management, this even in bearish markets, with a relatively low correlation with other investment opportunities.
Hedge funds may present some restrictions on investing (minimum size). Funds of funds allow a larger number of investors to invest in hedge funds. The funds of funds pick up the best hedge fund managers and package their products to be offered to a wide number of investors.
Last but not least are private equity funds, which invest mainly in non-listed firms at different stages of maturity, via LBOs or otherwise (see Chapter 47). Their growing scope of investments is slowly turning them into an alternative to stock markets.
Regardless of the investment strategies and tools used, asset management is currently witnessing a rise in responsible investment, which applies environmental, social and governance (ESG, see Chapter 1) criteria to investment choices. Worldwide, approximately a third of assets under management are managed according to ESG criteria. This figure reaches 49% in Europe. Under the influence of the ultimate beneficiaries of these funds, and the conviction of a certain number of managers, responsible investment is becoming the norm, especially since in some countries regulations require managers to explicitly detail their policies with regards to ESG criteria.
Within this category, SRI (socially responsible investment, see Chapter 1) strategies focus on selecting the most advanced companies in terms of sustainable development.
SUMMARY
QUESTIONS
EXERCISES
ANSWERS
BIBLIOGRAPHY
NOTE
Chapter 19. THE REQUIRED RATE OF RETURN
A ship in a harbour is safe but that is not what ships are built for
The previous chapter described the important concepts of risk, return and the market portfolio. It also highlighted the notion of risk premium (i.e. the difference between the return on the portfolio and the risk-free rate); this chapter continues to explore the risk premium in greater depth.
Investors must look at the big picture, first by investing in the market portfolio, then by borrowing or by investing in risk-free instruments commensurate with the level of risk they wish to assume. This approach allows them to assess an investment by merely determining the additional return and risk it adds to the market portfolio.
We now want to know how to get from r (the discounting rate used in calculating company value) to k (the return required by investors on a specific security).
Remember that this approach applies only if the investor owns a perfectly diversified portfolio.
Here is why: the greater the risk assumed by the financial investor, the higher their required rate of return. However, if they make just one investment and that turns out to be a failure, their required rate of return will matter little, as they will have lost everything.
With this in mind, it is easier to understand that the risk premium is relevant only if the financial investor manages not just a single investment, but a diversified portfolio of investments. In this case, the failure of one investment should be offset by the return achieved by other investments, which should thereby produce a suitable return for the portfolio as a whole.
This is the main difference between an industrial investment and a financial investment.
An entrepreneur who sets up their own company does not act like a financial investor, as they own just one investment. As their assets are not diversified, it is a matter of “life or death” for the firm that the investment succeeds. The law of averages in risk diversification does not apply to them.1
The financial investor, on the other hand, needs portfolio management tools to estimate the risk–return on each of their investments. Portfolio theory is not the main objective here, but it is useful to introduce some basic notions with which financial managers must be familiar.
Section 19.1 RETURN REQUIRED BY INVESTORS: THE CAPM
The CAPM (capital asset pricing model) was developed in the late 1950s and 1960s. Based on the work of Harry Markowitz, William Sharpe, John Lintner and Jack Treynor, it is now universally applied.
The CAPM is based on the assumption that investors act rationally and have at their disposal all relevant information on financial securities (see “efficient markets” in Chapter 15). Like the investor in Chapter 18, they seek to maximise their return, at a given level of risk.
The capital market line that we described in the previous chapter set the relationship for the return of a portfolio. CAPM aims at defining the same relationship but for a specific security (and not for a portfolio) in order to determine the return required for this security depending on its risk.
Remember that in order to minimise total risk, investors seek to reduce that component which can be reduced, i.e. the specific risk. They do so by diversifying their portfolios.
It can be observed that diversification reduces specific risk fairly quickly.
As a result, when stocks are fairly valued, investors will receive a return only on the portion of risk that they cannot eliminate – the market risk, or the non-diversifiable risk. Indeed, in a market in which arbitrage is theoretically possible, they will not be amply remunerated for a risk that they could otherwise eliminate themselves by simply diversifying their portfolios.
This means that the required rate of return (k) is equal to the risk-free rate rF,2 plus the risk premium for the non-diversifiable risk, i.e. the market risk.
This can be expressed as follows:
where kM is the required rate of return for the market and β the sensitivity coefficient described previously.
Note that the coefficient β measures the non-diversifiable risk of an asset and not its total risk. So it is possible to have a stock that is, on the whole, highly risky but with a low β if it is only loosely correlated with the market.
The difference between the return expected on the market as a whole and the risk-free rate is called the equity risk premium.
Over the very long term (120 years!), the historical risk premium has been as follows:
Belgium | 3.0% | South Africa | 6.0% |
China (1993–2020) | 4.6% | Spain | 3.3% |
France | 5.5% | Switzerland | 3.9% |
Germany (exc. 1922/23) | 6.2% | US | 5.8% |
Italy | 5.6% | UK | 4.3% |
India | 6.1% | Europe | 3.5% |
Japan | 6.1% | World | 4.4% |
Russia (1995–2020) | 7.4% |
Source: Crédit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook, 2021. Equity risk premium compared to short-term interest rates.
The equity risk premium can be historical or expected (or anticipated). The historical risk premium is equal to the annual performance of equity markets (including dividends) minus the risk-free rate. The expected risk premium is not directly observable. However, it can be calculated by estimating the future cash flows of all the companies, and then finding the discount rate that equates those cash flows with current share prices, from which we deduct the risk-free interest rate. This expected risk premium is the one used in the CAPM.
To determine the risk premium for each stock, simply multiply the market risk premium by the stock’s beta coefficient.
Hence, if the risk-free rate is –0.5% and the expected risk premium is 8.0%, a shareholder in the French car subcontractor Valeo will expect a return of –0.5% + 1.56 × 8.00% = 12.0%, if Valeo’s β is 1.56, while a shareholder in L’Oreal will expect –0.5% + 0.70 × 8.0% = 5.1%, as L’Oreal’s β is 0.70.
Section 19.2 THE SECURITY MARKET LINE
The research house Associés en Finance publishes the securities market line3 for the entire eurozone. It is calculated on the basis of the expected return on the y-axis and the beta coefficient of each stock on the x-axis.
The securities market line is quite instructive. It helps determine the required rate of return on a security on the basis of the only risk that is remunerated, i.e. the market risk.
Shifts in the securities market line itself characterise the nature of changes in the markets and make it easier to understand them:
- a parallel shift, with no variation in slope (which represents the equity risk premium), reflects a change in interest rates. For example, a cut in interest rates normally leads to a downward shift and thus a general appreciation of all stocks;
- a non-parallel shift (or pivoting) reflects a change in the risk premium and thus in the remuneration of risk. In this case, the riskiest stocks will move the most, whereas the least risky stocks may not be significantly affected.
In addition, the position of points vis-à-vis the market line serves as a decision-making tool. The above chart tells us that Orange offers too high an expected return for its risk. Investors will realise this and buy it, thus raising its price and lowering expected return. A stock that is “above” the securities market line is thus undervalued, while a stock that is “below” the securities market line (like Adidas) is overvalued.
But do not rush to place an order. Since this chart was printed, prices have had plenty of time to adjust.
Section 19.3 LIMITS OF THE CAPM
The CAPM assumes that markets are efficient and it is without a doubt the most widely used model in modern finance. But if we wanted to be facetious, we would say that each element of the CAPM poses a practical problem!
1/ THE LIMITS OF DIVERSIFICATION
The CAPM is a development of portfolio theory and is based on the assumption that diversification helps to reduce risk reducing it to the non-diversifiable risk. A study by Campbell et al. (2001) shows that diversification is increasingly complex and that nowadays a portfolio of at least 50 stocks is required to reduce risk significantly.
This is due, among other things, to the greater volatility of individual stocks, although markets as a whole are no more volatile. Other reasons for this phenomenon are the arrival on the market of riskier companies, such as biotech, Internet and younger companies, and the near extinction of conglomerates, which, by nature, provided some diversification in and of themselves.
Meanwhile, the correlation between market return and return on individual stocks is falling. This may undermine the relevancy of the CAPM. Statistically, beta is becoming less and less relevant.
2/ DIFFICULTIES IN PRACTICAL APPLICATION OF THE CAPM
The first difficulty one encounters when using the CAPM is determining the risk-free rate which, all things considered, is just a theoretical concept.
Practitioners usually use as a risk-free rate the yield of long-term government bonds. They put forward the similar weighted average duration of the cash flows of the assets to be valued and of long-term bonds. The issue is that long-term government bonds are not without risk: their value can fluctuate in time depending on changes in interest rates (which is inevitable given the long period of time since their issue). Even investors that plan to keep government bonds until their maturity suffer from these interest rate fluctuations for the reinvestment of coupons. In addition, unanticipated changes in inflation can impact what could have appeared as a risk-free investment. Finally, there remains the solvency risk of the issuer. The increasing levels of debt of most Western countries mean that this risk is not just theoretical, as demonstrated in recent years in Greece.
Therefore, it appears more rational to use as a risk-free rate the short-term interest rate. Short-term bills are virtually not impacted by changes in interest, coupon reinvestment risk does not exist and bankruptcy risk is minor. For the Eurozone, the risk-free rate could be assessed on the basis of the return on short-term German Treasury bills.
The three key global providers of equity market risk premium data (Ibbotson, Dimson-Marsh-Staunton and Associés en Finance) propose a computation of the market risk premium based on long-term interest rates or short-term interest rates. The most important factor is not to add a short-term interest rate to a market premium computed on the basis of long-term rates, or the reverse.
Roll (1997) has pointed out that determining a market portfolio is not as easy as one would like to think. In theory, the market portfolio is not solely made up of stocks or even just financial assets, but of all the assets that can be acquired. It is therefore impossible, in practice, to come up with a true market portfolio, especially when looking at it from an international point of view.
However, we still have to determine the return expected from the market portfolio. As the CAPM is used for making forecasts, it can also be used to calculate the return expected from a security based upon the return expected from the market portfolio, as well as the security’s anticipated risk (its β). However, “anticipated” data cannot be observed directly in the market, and so forecasts must be made on the basis of historical data and macroeconomic data. For some countries, such as emerging nations, this is not easy!
3/ THE INSTABILITY OF β
The main criticism of beta is its instability over time. It boils down a large amount of information into a single figure, and this strength becomes its weakness.
The CAPM is used to make forecasts. It can be used to calculate expected return on the basis of anticipated risk. Therefore, it would be better to use a forecast β rather than a historical value, especially when the coefficient is not stable over time.
For this reason, calculations must often be adjusted to reflect the regularity of earnings and dividends, and visibility on the sector. Blume et al. (1975) have sought to demonstrate a convergence of β towards 1. This seems counterintuitive to us as some sectors will always have a beta greater than 1. In addition, the recent crisis has demonstrated that, in difficult times, the gap between high β and low β increases.
4/ THE THEORETICAL LIMITS OF CAPM AND MARKETS AT FAIR VALUE
The CAPM assumes markets are fairly valued. But markets are not necessarily always at fair value. The fact that technical analysis has become so prominent on trading floors shows that market operators themselves have doubts about market efficiency (see Chapter 18).
Moreover, the theory of efficient markets in general, and the CAPM in particular, is based on the premise that market operators have rational expectations. To be applicable, the model must be accepted by everyone as being universally correct. The development of parallel theories shows that this is not necessarily the case.
The bias mentioned above has led the CAPM to be considered as just one theoretical explanation for the functioning of the financial markets. Other theories and methods have been developed, but they have not (yet?) achieved the attractiveness of the CAPM, due to the simplicity of its concepts. We should not lose hope: a study by Ferguson and Shockley (2003) posits that all weaknesses of the CAPM could be attributable to a mis-estimation of the market portfolio and that they would disappear if not only stocks, but also bonds (and other investment opportunities), were included, as the theory suggests.
Section 19.4 MULTIFACTOR MODELS
1/ THE ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY
In some ways the APT (arbitrage pricing theory) model is an extended version of the CAPM. The CAPM assumes that the return on a security is a function of its market risk and therefore depends on a single factor: market prices. The APT model, as proposed by Stephen Ross, assumes that the risk premium is a function of several variables, not just one, i.e. macroeconomic variables (V1, V2,…, Vn) as well as company “noise”.
So, for security J:
The model does not define which V factors are to be used. Ross’s original article uses the following factors, which are based on quantitative analyses: inflation, manufacturing output, risk premium and yield curve.
Comparing the APT model to the market portfolio, we can see that APT has replaced the notion (hard to measure in practice) of return expected by the market with a series of variables which, unfortunately, must still be determined. This is why APT is a portfolio management tool and not a tool for valuing stocks.
2/ THE FAMA–FRENCH MODEL
There are offshoots from the APT that have sought to explain historical returns by company-specific factors rather than the general macroeconomic factors in the APT.
For example, Eugene Fama and Kenneth French (1992) have isolated three factors: market return (as in the CAPM), price/book value (see Chapter 31) and the gap in returns between large caps and small caps (which lends credence to the notion of a liquidity effect).
Other factors can be added to this list, including P/E, market capitalisation, yield and even past performance (which is a direct contradiction of efficient market theory). However, these are based on purely empirical approaches, not theoretical ones. While they criticise the CAPM, they offer no better alternative model.
3/ LIQUIDITY PREMIUM, SIZE PREMIUM AND INVESTOR PROTECTION
Among the factors used in determining risk, the criteria by which liquidity can be measured (size, free float, transaction volumes, bid–ask spread) are often statistically significant. In other words, the required return on a security often appears to be a function of liquidity.
Hamon and Jacquillat (1999) have demonstrated the existence of a liquidity premium in Europe, which is nil for large caps and significant for small caps. The liquidity premium should be added to the return derived from the CAPM to arrive at the total return expected by the shareholder. Hamon and Jacquillat use the term “market plane” (instead of securities market line). Under their model, expected return on a security is a linear equation with two parameters: the market premium and the liquidity premium. Let us report the definition from the original article:
In May 2020, Associés en Finance estimated the market plane parameters for eurozone stocks at:
The liquidity premium, which is expected in addition to the required rate of return, finds its opposite number in the notion of “liquidity discount”.
Section 19.5 FRACTALS AND OTHER LEADS
The theory of a market in equilibrium is based on the assumption that prices have reached an equilibrium. It therefore assumes that there is an equilibrium between offer and demand and that it is reached at every moment on financial markets (thanks to the arbitrage principle). From this equilibrium, no one can predict how prices will move: they follow a random path.
Some research proposes that market prices do not follow random paths as the market in equilibrium theory predicts. In particular, extreme events (strong price growth or large drops) occur much more frequently than would be predicted by classical theory.
Several theories have been developed to model the evolution of prices and allow for possible massive price movements (in particular, crashes).
Some have tried to use chaotic functions to model prices. Chaotic here does not mean illogical or random. The term is used for perfectly predictable series of data that appear to be illogical. These models are used in a number of sciences, including economics.
Mandelbrot has put forward that fractals (or to be more precise, multi-fractals) could provide accurate representations of market price movements. This assumption does not fit with the efficient market theory, not only because the statistical rule for modelling prices is different, but more importantly because Mandelbrot’s assumptions imply that prices have memory, i.e. that they are not independent from past prices.
Section 19.6 TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES
Because it is a single-period model, the CAPM draws no distinction between short-term and long-term interest rates. As has been discussed, a money-market fund does not offer the same annual rate of return as a 10-year bond. An entire body of financial research is devoted to understanding movements in interest rates and, in particular, how different maturities are linked. This is the study of how the yield curve, which at a point in time relates the yield to maturity to the maturity (or duration) of bonds, is formed.
1/ THE VARIOUS YIELD CURVES
By charting the interest rate for the same categories of risk at all maturities, the investor obtains the yield curve that reflects the anticipation of all financial market operators.
The concept of premium helps explain why the interest rate of any financial asset is generally proportional to its maturity.
Generally speaking, the yield curve reflects the market’s anticipation regarding:
- long-term inflation;
- the central bank’s monetary policy; and
- the issuing country’s debt management policy.
Hence, during a period of economic recovery, the yield curve tends to be “normal” (i.e. long yields are higher than short yields). The steepness of the slope depends on:
- how strong an expected recovery is;
- what expectations the market has about the risk of inflation; and
- the extent to which the market expects a rapid increase in central banks’ intervention rates (to calm inflationary risks).
For the euro, the curve’s upward slope in 2021 is due to the extremely low (currently negative) levels reached by short-term rates, following European Central Bank (ECB) interventions to avoid a major economic downturn and to support the economy.
In contrast, when a recession follows a period of growth, the yield curve tends to reverse itself (with long-term rates falling below short-term rates). The steepness of the negative slope depends on:
- how strong expectations of recovery are;
- how credible the central bank’s policy is (i.e. how firm the central banks are in fighting inflation); and
- the extent to which inflationary trends appear to be diminishing (despite the recession, if inflationary trends are very strong then long-term rates will tend to remain stable, and the curve could actually be flat for some time).
This is what could be observed at the beginning of 2021 in relation to the dollar.
Lastly, when rates are low, the curve cannot remain flat for any length of time because investors will buy fixed-rate bonds. As long as investors expect that their capital gain, which is tied to falling long-term rates, is more than the cost of short-term financing, they will continue to purchase fixed-rate bonds. However, when long-term rates seem to have reached a lower limit, these expectations will disappear because investors will demand a differential between long-term and short-term rates’ yield on their investment. This results in:
- either a rebound in long-term rates; or
- stable long-term rates if short-term rates fall because of central bank policies; and
- a steepening in the curve, the degree of which will depend on the currency.
We then revert to the upward slope since the end of 2008 for the Swiss franc.
2/ RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INTEREST RATES AND MATURITIES
By no means are short-term and long-term rates completely disconnected. In fact, there is a fundamental and direct link between them.
About 20 years ago, this relationship was less apparent and common consensus favoured the theory of segmentation, which said that supply and demand balanced out across markets, with no connection among them, i.e. the long-term bond market and the short-term bond market.
As seen above, this theory is generally no longer valid, even though each investor will tend to focus on their own timeframe. It is worthwhile reviewing the basic mechanisms. For example, an investor who wishes to invest on a two-year time basis has two options:
- invest for two years at today’s fixed rate, which is the interest rate for any two-year investment; or
- invest the funds for one year, is paid the one-year interest rate at the end of the year, and then repeat the process.
In a risk-free environment, these two investments would produce the same return, as the investor would already know the return that they would be offered on the market in one year for a one-year bond. As they also know the current one-year rate, they can determine the return on a two-year zero-coupon bond.
where 0r2 is the current two-year rate, 1r1 the one-year rate in one year and 0r1 the current one-year rate.
Hence:
If today the one-year interest rate is 3% and the two-year interest rate is 4%, this means that the market expects the one-year interest rate to reach 5% in one year, as
An increase in short-term rates is then anticipated by the market.
In such a world, the shape of the yield curve provides some valuable information. For example, if long-term rates are higher than short-term rates, this necessarily implies that investors are anticipating an increase in interest rates.
This theory assumes that investors are not sensitive to risk and therefore that there is no preference for a short-term or a long-term investment. This does not deal with the attention that investors pay to liquidity, as demonstrated by recent events on financial markets.
3/ TAKING LIQUIDITY INTO CONSIDERATION
The first theories to highlight the existence of a premium to reflect the relative lack of liquidity of long-term investments were the preferred habitat theory and the liquidity preference theory.
In the mid-1960s, Modigliani and Sutch advanced the theory of preferred habitat, which says that investors prefer certain investment timeframes. Companies that wish to issue securities whose timeframe is considered undesirable will thus have to pay a premium to attract investors.
The theory of liquidity preference is based on the same assumption, but goes further in assuming that the preferred habitat of all investors is the short term. Investors preferring liquidity will require a liquidity premium if they are to invest for the long term.
Even if investors anticipate fixed short-term rates, the yield curve will slope upward due to the liquidity premiums.
4/ YIELD CURVES AND VALUATION OF SECURITIES
After having studied the yield curve, it is easier to understand that the discounting of all the cash flows from a fixed-income security at a single rate, regardless of the period when they are paid, is an oversimplification, although this is the method that will be used throughout this text for stocks and capital expenditure. It would be wrong to use it for bonds.
In order to be more rigorous, it is necessary to discount each flow with the interest rate of the yield curve corresponding to its maturity: the one-year rate for next year’s income stream, the three-year rate for flows paid in three years, etc. Ultimately, yield to maturity is similar to an average of these different rates.
SUMMARY
QUESTIONS
EXERCISES
ANSWERS
BIBLIOGRAPHY
NOTES
- 1 However, the very fact that the entrepreneur does not diversify their portfolio means that they must achieve strong performances in managing their company, as they have everything to lose. So they are likely to take steps to reduce risk.
- 2 For the risk-free rate, kF is equal to rF. The required rate of return is equal to the return that is actually received, as the asset has no risk.
- 3 It differs from the capital market line, which has the total risks of the security on the x-axis, not the β coefficient.
****PART THREE. FINANCIAL SECURITIES
There is a great variety of financial instruments, each of which has the following characteristics:
- it is a contract …
- … executed over time, and …
- its value derives solely from the series of cash flows it represents.
Indeed, from a mathematical and more theoretical viewpoint, a financial instrument is defined as a schedule of future cash flows.
Holding a financial security is the same as holding the right to receive the cash flows, as defined in the terms and conditions. Conversely, for the issuer, creating a financial instrument is the same as committing to paying out a series of cash flows. In return for this right to receive cash flows or for taking on this commitment, the company will issue a security at a certain price, enabling it to raise the funds needed to run its business.
You’ve undoubtedly heard people say that the financial manager’s stock-in-trade is “paper”. Digitalisation has now turned financial instruments from paper documents into intangible book entries, reducing them to the information they contain, i.e. the contract. The essence of finance is, and will always be, negotiation between an issuer seeking new funds and the investors interested in buying the instruments that represent the underlying obligations. And negotiation means markets, be they credit markets, bond markets, stock markets, etc.
Time, or the term of the financial security, introduces the notion of time remuneration and risk. A debt instrument that promises cash flows over time, for example, entails risk, even if the borrower is very creditworthy. This seems strange to many people who consider that “a deal is a deal” or “a person’s word is their bond”. Yet, experience has shown that a wide variety of risks can affect the payment of those cash flows, including political risk, strikes, natural disasters, pandemics and other events.
The financial logic that we have seen in the previous chapters is used to analyse and choose among a firm’s investment options. The financial manager transforms flows of goods and services, deriving from the company’s industrial and other business assets, into cash flows. You will soon understand that the world of finance is one of managing rights on the one hand and commitments on the other, both expressed in terms of cash flows.
In a market for financial instruments, it is not the actual flows that are sold, but the rights associated with them. The investor, i.e. the buyer of the security, acquires the rights granted by the instrument. The issuing company assumes contractual obligations deriving from the instrument, regardless of who the owner of the instrument is.
For example, commodity futures markets make it possible to perform purely financial transactions. You can buy sugar “forward”, via financial instruments called futures contracts, knowing full well that you will never take delivery of the sugar into your warehouse. Instead, you will close out the position prior to maturity. The financial manager thus trades on a market for real goods (sugar), using contracts that can be unwound prior to or at maturity.
A property investor acts similarly. After acquiring real property, the value of which fluctuates, they can lease it or resell it. Viewed this way, real property is as fungible as any other property and is akin to a financial asset.
Clearly, these assets exhibit different degrees of “financiality”. To take the argument one step further, you turn a painting into a financial instrument when you put it in your safe in the hope of realising a gain when you sell it.
The distinction between a real asset and a financial asset is therefore subtle but fundamental. It lies either in the nature of the contract or in the investor’s motivation, as in the example of the painting.
Lastly, the purchase of a financial security differs from the purchase of a durable good in that the financial security is undifferentiated. A large number of investors can buy the same financial security. In contrast, acquiring a specific office building or building an industrial plant is a very specific, unique investment.
Chapter 20. BONDS
Fixing the interest
Unlike equity, for which shares are the legal form of the security, bank and financial debt can take the form of bank loans or debt securities. The predominant form of debt securities is a bond.
A debt security is a financial instrument representing the borrower’s obligation to the lender from whom they have received funds. If the initial maturity of the security is over one year, it will be called a bond.
This obligation provides for a schedule of cash flows defining the terms of repayment of the funds and the lender’s remuneration in the interval. The remuneration may be fixed during the life of the debt or floating if it is linked to a benchmark or index.
Unlike conventional bank loans, debt securities can be traded on secondary markets (stock exchanges, money markets, mortgage markets, interbank markets, over the counter (OTC) markets). Other than this, their logic remains the same and all the reasoning presented in this chapter also applies for bank loans. Debt securities are bonds, commercial paper, Treasury bills and notes, certificates of deposit and mortgage-backed bonds or mortgage bonds. Furthermore, the current trend is to securitise loans to make them negotiable.
Disintermediation was not the only factor fuelling the growth of bond markets. The increasing difficulty of obtaining bank loans was another, as banks realised that the interest margin on such loans did not offer sufficient return on equity. This pushed companies to turn to bond markets to raise the funds that banks had become reluctant to advance. The increasingly burdensome solvency and liquidity constraints imposed on banks (Basel III and IV) has increased the share of financing insured by the debt capital markets even further (see Chapter 39).
Investors have welcomed the emergence of corporate bonds offering higher yields than government bonds. Of course, these higher returns come at the cost of higher risks.
Many of the explanations and examples offered in this chapter deal with bonds, but they can easily be applied to all kinds of debt instruments. We shall take the example of the Ahold Delhaize 2030 bond issue with the following features:
Section 20.1 BASIC CONCEPTS
1/ THE PRINCIPAL
(a) Nominal or face value
Loans that can be publicly traded are divided into a certain number of units giving the same rights for the same fraction of the debt. The nominal, face or par value is €100,000 in the Ahold Delhaize case.
The nominal value is used to calculate the interest payments. In the simplest cases (which is not the case for Ahold Delhaize), it equals the amount of money the issuer received for each bond and that the issuer will repay upon redemption.
(b) Issue price
The issue price is the price at which the bonds are issued; that is, the price investors pay for each bond. The Ahold Delhaize bond was issued on 18 March 2021 at a price of €99,630, i.e. 99.63% of its face value.
Depending on the characteristics of the issue, the issue price may be higher than the face value (issued at a premium), lower than the face value (issued at a discount) or equal to the face value (at par).
(c) Redemption
When a loan is amortised, it is said to be redeemed. In Chapter 17 we looked at the various ways a loan can be repaid:
- redemption at maturity, or on a bullet repayment basis. This is the case in the Ahold Delhaize issue;
- redemption in equal slices (or series), or constant amortisation;
- redemption in fixed instalments.
Other methods exist, such as determining which bonds are redeemed by lottery… there is no end to financial creativity!
A deferred redemption period is a grace period, generally at the beginning of the bond’s life, during which the issuer does not have to repay the principal.
The terms of the issue may also include provisions for early redemption (call options) or retraction (put options). A call option (see Chapter 23) gives the issuer the right to buy back all or part of the issue prior to the maturity date, while a put option allows the bondholder to demand early repayment.
A redemption premium or discount arises where the redemption value is higher or lower than the nominal value.
(d) Maturity of the bond
The life of a bond extends from its issue date to its final redemption date. Where the bond is redeemed in several instalments, the average maturity of the bond corresponds to the average of each of the repayment periods.
The Ahold Delhaize bonds have a maturity of nine years.
(e) Guarantees
Repayment of the principal (and interest) on a bond borrowing can be guaranteed by the issuer, the parent company and less often for corporates by collateral (i.e. mortgages), pledges or warranties. Bonds are rarely secured, while commercial paper and certificates of deposit can, in theory, be secured but in fact never are.
The bonds issued by Ahold Delhaize do not benefit from a guarantee.
2/ INCOME
(a) Issue date
The issue date is the date on which interest begins to accrue. It may or may not coincide with the settlement date, when investors actually pay for the bonds purchased.
In the case of the Ahold Delhaize bond, these two dates coincide. Interest begins to accrue on the settlement date.
(b) Interest rate
The coupon or nominal rate is used to calculate the interest (or coupon, in the case of a bond) payable to the lenders. Interest is calculated by multiplying the nominal rate by the nominal or par value of the bond.
On the Ahold Delhaize issue, the coupon rate is 0.375% and the coupon payment is €375. However, if Ahold Delhaize did not reduce its carbon emissions by 29% between 2018 and 2025 (scope 1 and 2) and its food waste (discarded food) by 32% between 2016 and 2025, then the annual coupon would increase to €625. This provision makes this bond a sustainable one.
In addition to coupon payments, investors may also gain additional remuneration if the issue price is lower than the par value (which is the case for Ahold Delhaize). This is the issuance premium. If the issue price is higher than the par value, the lender’s return will be lower than the coupon rate.
(c) Periodicity of coupon payments
Coupon payments can be made every year, half-year, quarter, month or even more frequently. On certain borrowings, the interval is longer, since the total compounded interest earned is paid only upon redemption. Such bonds are called zero-coupon bonds.
In some cases, the interest is prepaid; that is, the company pays the interest at the beginning of the period to which it relates. In general, however, the accrued interest is paid at the end of the period to which it relates.
The Ahold Delhaize issue pays accrued interest on an annual basis.
Section 20.2 THE YIELD TO MATURITY
The actual return on an investment (or the cost of a loan for the borrower) depends on a number of factors: the difference between the settlement date and the issue date, the issue premium/discount, the redemption premium/discount, the deferred redemption period and the coupon payment interval. As a result, the nominal rate is not very meaningful.
We have seen that the yield to maturity (Chapter 17) cancels out the bond’s present net value; that is, the difference between the issue price and the present value of future flows on the bond. Note that for bonds, the yield to maturity (y) and the internal rate of return are identical. This yield, calculated on the settlement date when investors pay for their bonds, takes into account any timing differences between the right to receive income and the actual cash payment.
In the case of the Ahold Delhaize bond issue:
i.e. y = 0.417%. The yield to maturity, before taxation and intermediaries’ fees, represents:
- for investors, the rate of return they would receive by holding the bonds until maturity, assuming that the interest payments are reinvested at the same yield to maturity, which is a very strong assumption;
- for the issuer, the pre-tax actuarial cost of the loan.
From the point of view of the investor, the bond schedule must take into account intermediation costs and the tax status of the income earned. For the issuer, the gross cost to maturity is higher because of the commissions paid to intermediaries. This increases the actuarial cost of the borrowing. In addition, the issuer pays the intermediaries (paying agents) in charge of paying the interest and reimbursing the principal (generally between 0.2 and 0.4% on the Euro Investment Grade market). Lastly, the issuer can deduct the coupon payments in whole or in part to compute its corporate income tax, thus reducing the actual cost of the loan.
1/ SPREADS
The spread is the difference between the rate of return on a bond and that on a benchmark used by the market. In the eurozone, the benchmark for long-term debt is most often the interest rate swap (IRS) rate1; sometimes the spread to government bond yields is also mentioned. For floating-rate bonds and bank loans (which are most often with floating rates), the spread is measured to a short-term rate, the three- or six-month Euribor in the eurozone.
The Ahold Delhaize bond was issued with a spread of 41 basis points (0.41%) to mid swap rate, meaning that Ahold Delhaize had to pay 0.41% more per year than the risk-free rate to raise funds.
The spread is a key parameter for valuing bonds, particularly at the time of issue. It depends on the perceived credit quality of the issuer and the maturity of the issue, which are reflected in the credit rating and the guarantees given. Spreads are, of course, a relative concept, depending on the bonds being compared. The stronger the creditworthiness of the issuer and the market’s appetite for risk, the lower the margin will be.
2/ THE SECONDARY MARKET
Once the subscription period is over, the price at which the bonds were sold (their issue price) becomes a thing of the past. The value of the instrument begins to fluctuate on the secondary market. Consequently, the yield to maturity published in the prospectus applies only at the time of issue; after that, it fluctuates in step with the value of the bond. Note that, as with equity issues, there is usually a small increase in the price of bonds just after they are issued (the price is said to be tightening). New issues usually offer a small yield premium (new issue premium)
Theoretically, changes in the bond’s yield to maturity on the secondary market do not directly concern the borrower, since the cost of the debt was fixed when it was contracted.
For the borrower, the yield on the secondary market is merely an opportunity cost; that is, the cost of refunding for issuing new bonds. It represents the “real” cost of debt, but is not shown in the company accounts where the debt is recorded at its historical cost, regardless of any fluctuations in its value on the secondary market. The market value of debt can only be found in the notes to IFRS accounts.
3/ LISTING TECHNIQUES
The price of bonds listed on stock markets is expressed as a percentage of the nominal value. In fact, they are treated as though the nominal value of each bond were €100. Thus, a bond with a nominal value of €50,000 will not be listed at €49,500 but at 99% (49,500 / 50,000 × 100). Similarly, a bond with a nominal value of €10,000 will be listed at 99%, rather than €9,900. This makes it easier to compare bond prices.
For the comparison to be relevant, the prices must not include the fraction of annual interest already accrued. Otherwise, the price of a bond with a 5% coupon would be 105 just before its coupon payment date and 100 just after. This is why bonds are quoted net of accrued interest. Bond tables thus show both the price expressed as a percentage of the nominal value and the fraction of accrued interest, which is also given as a percentage of the nominal value.
On 5 May 2021, the Ahold Delhaize bond traded at 99.2% with 0.042% accrued interest. Buying the Ahold Delhaize bond then would have cost (excl. any trading fee or tax) €99,242: €100,000 × (99.2% + 0.042%).
Certain debt securities, mainly fixed-rate Treasury notes with annual interest payments, are quoted at their yield to maturity.
By now you have probably realised that the price of a bond does not reflect its actual cost. A bond trading at 105% may be more or less expensive than a bond trading at 96%. The yield to maturity is the most important criterion, allowing investors to evaluate various investment opportunities according to the degree of risk they are willing to accept and the length of their investment. However, it merely offers a temporary estimate of the promised return; this may be different from the expected return, which incorporates the probability of default of the bond.
4/ FURTHER ISSUES AND ASSIMILATION
Having made one bond issue, the same company can later issue other bonds (informally, this is called a tap issue) with the same features (time to maturity, coupon rate, coupon payment schedule, redemption price and guarantees, etc.), so that they are interchangeable. This enables the various issues to be grouped as one for a larger total amount. Assimilation makes it possible to reduce administrative expenses and enhance liquidity on the secondary market.
Nevertheless, the drawback for the issuer is that it concentrates maturity on one date, which is not in line with sound financial policy.
Bonds assimilated are issued with the same features as the bonds with which they are interchangeable. The only difference is in the issue price,2 which is shaped by market conditions that are very likely to have changed since the original issue.
Section 20.3 FLOATING-RATE BONDS
So far we have looked only at fixed-income debt securities. The cash flow schedule for these securities is laid down clearly when they are issued. These are very popular in periods of low interest rates, and currently represent 84% of euro-denominated bond issues. Let us now cover the various securities that give rise to cash flows that are not totally fixed from the very outset, but follow preset rules (10% of all bond issuances in 2020).
1/ THE MECHANICS OF THE COUPON
The coupon of a floating-rate bond (floating rate note, FRN or “floats”) is not fixed, but is indexed to an observable market rate, generally a short-term rate, such as a six-month Euribor. In other words, the coupon rate is periodically reset based on some reference rate plus a spread. When each coupon is presented for payment, its value is calculated as a function of the market rate, based on the formula:
This cancels out the interest rate risk, since the issuer of the security is certain of paying interest at exactly the market rate at all times. Likewise, the investor is assured at all times of receiving a return in line with the market rate. Consequently, there is no reason for the price of a variable-rate bond to move very far from its par value unless the issuer’s solvency changes.
2/ INDEX-LINKED SECURITIES
Floating rates, as described in the first paragraph of this section, are indexed to a market interest rate. Broadly speaking, however, a bond’s coupons may be indexed to any index or price provided that it is clearly defined from a contractual standpoint. Such securities are known as index-linked securities.
For instance, most European countries have issued bonds indexed to inflation. The coupon paid each year, as well as the redemption price, is reset to take into account the rise in the price index since the bond was launched. As a result, the investor benefits from complete protection against inflation. Likewise, Mexican companies have brought to market bonds linked to oil prices, while other companies have issued bonds indexed to their own share price.
The following table shows the main reference rates in Europe.
REFERENCE RATES IN EUROPE
Reference rate | Definition | As at April 2021 |
---|---|---|
EONIA (Euro Overnight Index Average) | Traditional European money-market rate. Since end 2019 it is computed as €STR +8.5 basis points. It should disappear end 2021 and be replaced by €STR. | −0.42% |
€STR (European Short-Term Rate) | The new European money-market rate that replaces EONIA. It is an interest rate computed based on real loans and not only declared loans as was EONIA. | –0.56% |
EURIBOR (European Interbank Offered Rate) | European money-market rate corresponding to the arithmetic mean of offered rates on the European banking market for a given maturity (between 1 week and 12 months). Sponsored by the European Banking Federation and published by Reuters, it is based on daily quotes provided by 43 European banks. | −0.53% (3 months) |
LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) | Money-market rate observed in London corresponding to the arithmetic mean of offered rates on the London banking market for a given maturity (between 1 and 12 months) and a given currency (euro, sterling, dollar, etc.). It will be replaced in 2021/2022 by ECB RFR (€), SONIA (£) and SOFR ($). | −0.54% (euro 3 months) |
IRS | The IRS rate indicates the fixed interest rate that will equate the present value of the fixed-rate payments with the present value of the floating-rate payments in an interest rate swap contract. The convention in the market is for the swap market makers to set the floating leg – normally at Euribor – and then quote the fixed rate that is payable for that maturity. |
Section 20.4 GREEN AND SOCIALLY RESPONSIBLE BONDS
Responsible bonds include three categories of bonds that are, in terms of their financial flows, conventional bonds, but which incorporate ESG aspects.
The issuer of green bonds commits to use the funds for environmentally positive investments or expenditures (as defined by the company, usually assisted by an independent firm).
Tracking expenditure and allocating a funding source to a particular job requires a specific organisation that is unusual for finance management. This organisation has a cost. However, as investors have been willing to buy green bonds at a slightly higher price than a conventional bond since autumn 2020, the so-called greenium, the extra cost is more or less offset for companies. Green bonds are, even if companies sometimes deny it, a communication tool but also a means of internal mobilisation. Paradoxically, many green bond issuers operate in industries whose ecological character is not immediately obvious: energy (EDF, Engie), automotive (Toyota). Some have therefore launched the concept of transition bonds, which are bonds that specifically finance the energy transition.
The volume of green bond issues is growing very quickly, but remains modest (€265bn in 2020) compared to the bond market (around 5%).
Social bonds finance projects with a social connotation. For example, Icade issued a €600m social bond in 2020 to facilitate access to healthcare for all. This is a €130bn market where the share of companies is structurally low (a few billion euros of issues per year).
Since the autumn of 2020, sustainable bonds (or sustainability-linked bonds, SLBs) have experienced very strong growth driven by companies that, because of their sector of activity, do not necessarily have investments to make in the energy transition or quantifiable social objectives requiring heavy investments. In contrast to green or social bonds, which are qualified as such because of the use of funds, sustainable bonds can be used for any purpose. Their sustainability comes from the interest rate they pay to lenders, which can be increased if they do not meet quantified ESG targets, normally ambitious ones, that they have set themselves: reducing greenhouse gas emissions, increasing recycling, switching to 100% renewable electricity, increasing the proportion of women in management teams, training disadvantaged people in energy management, etc. Ahold Delhaize’s obligation is a sustainable obligation.
As with green bonds, the green premium (the greenium) increases, making this form of financing cheaper than a conventional bond, at least as long as the company is able to meet its ESG objectives. The relatively small sustainable bond market (around €70bn in 2020) will clearly continue to grow strongly in the future and could become the norm for companies.
As evidence of the growth of this market, the principles of these issues are now standardised in the Green Bonds Principles (GBP), the Social Bond Principles (SBP) and the Sustainability-Linked Bond Principles (SLBP).
Section 20.5 THE VOLATILITY OF DEBT SECURITIES
The holder of a debt security may have regarded themself as protected having chosen this type of security, but they actually face three types of risk:
- interest rate risk and coupon reinvestment risk, which affect almost solely fixed-rate securities;
- credit risk, which affects fixed-rate and variable-rate securities alike. We will consider this at greater length in the following section.
1/ CHANGES IN THE PRICE OF A FIXED-RATE BOND CAUSED BY INTEREST RATE FLUCTUATIONS
(a) Definition
What would happen if, at the end of the subscription period for the Ahold Delhaize 0.375% bond, the market interest rate rose to 0.875% (scenario 1) or fell to 0% (scenario 2)? In the first scenario, the bondholder would obviously attempt to sell the Ahold Delhaize bond to buy securities yielding 0.875%. The price of the bond would fall such that the bond offered its buyer a yield to maturity of 0.875%. Conversely, if the market rate fell to 0%, holders of the Ahold Delhaize bond would hold onto their bonds, which yield 0.375%, while the market interest rate for the same risk level is now 0%. Other investors would attempt to buy them, and the price of the bond would rise to a level at which the bond offered its buyer a yield to maturity of 0%.
An upward (or downward) change in interest rates therefore leads to a fall (or rise) in the present value of a fixed-rate bond, irrespective of the issuer’s financial condition.
As we have seen, if the yield on our Ahold Delhaize bond is 0.375%, its price is 100%.
But if its yield to maturity rises to 0.875% (a 0.5 point increase or 50 basis points), its price will change to:
i.e. a decrease of 4.3%. This shows that holders of bonds face a risk to their capital, and this risk is by no means merely theoretical, given the fluctuations in interest rates over the medium term.
(b) Measures: modified duration and convexity
The modified duration of a bond measures the percentage change in its price for a given change in interest rates. The price of a bond with a modified duration of 4 will increase by 4% when interest rates fall from 7% to 6%, while the price of another bond with a modified duration of 3 will increase by just 3%.
From a mathematical standpoint, modified duration can be defined as the absolute value of the first derivative of a bond’s price with respect to interest rates, divided by the price:
where r is the market rate and Ft the cash flows generated by the bond.
Turning back to the example of the Ahold Delhaize bond at its issuance date, we arrive at a modified duration of 8.83.
Modified duration is therefore a way of calculating the percentage change in the price of a bond for a given change in interest rates. It simply involves multiplying the change in interest rates by the bond’s modified duration. A rise in interest rates from 0.375% to 0.875% therefore leads to a price decrease of 0.5% × 8.83 = 4.41%, i.e. from 100% to 100 × (1 − 4.41%) = 95.59%.
We note a discrepancy of 0.101% with the price calculated previously (95.691%). Modified duration is valid solely at the point where it is calculated (i.e. 0.417% here). The further we move away from this point, the more skewed it becomes. For instance, at a yield of 0.875% it is 8.79 rather than 8.83. This will skew calculation of the new price of the bond, but the distortion will be small if the fluctuation in interest rates is also limited in size. From a geometrical standpoint, the modified duration is the first derivative of price with respect to interest rates and it reflects the slope of the tangent to the price/yield curve. Since this forms part of a hyperbolic curve, the slope of the tangent is not constant and moves in line with interest rates.
(c) Parameters influencing modified duration
Let’s consider the following three bonds:
Bond | A | B | C |
---|---|---|---|
Coupon | 5% | 5% | 0% |
Price | 100 | 100 | 100 |
Yield to maturity | 5% | 5% | 5% |
Redemption price | 100 | 100 | 432.2 |
Residual life | 5 years | 15 years | 30 years |
How much are these bonds worth in the event of interest rate fluctuations?
Market interest rates (%) | A | B | C |
---|---|---|---|
1 | 119.4 | 155.5 | 320.7 |
5 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
10 | 81.0 | 62.0 | 24.8 |
15 | 66.5 | 41.5 | 6.5 |
Note that the longer the maturity of a bond, the greater its sensitivity to a change in interest rates.
Modified duration is primarily a function of the maturity date. The closer a bond gets to its maturity date, the closer its price moves towards its redemption value and the more its sensitivity to interest rates decreases. Conversely, the longer it is until the bond matures, the greater its sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations.
Modified duration also depends on two other parameters, which are nonetheless of secondary importance to the time-to-maturity factor:
- the bond’s coupon rate: the lower the coupon rate, the higher its modified duration;
- market rates: the lower the level of market rates, the higher a bond’s modified duration.
Modified duration represents an investment tool used systematically by fixed-income portfolio managers. If they anticipate a decline in interest rates, they opt for bonds with a higher modified duration, i.e. a longer time to maturity and a very low coupon rate, or even zero-coupon bonds, to maximise their capital gains.
Conversely, if portfolio managers expect a rise in interest rates, they focus on bonds with a low modified duration (i.e. due to mature shortly and carrying a high coupon) in order to minimise their capital losses.
Convexity is the second derivative of price with respect to interest rates. It measures the relative change in a bond’s modified duration for a small fluctuation in interest rates. Convexity expresses the speed of appreciation or the sluggishness of depreciation in the price of the bond if interest rates decline or rise.
2/ COUPON REINVESTMENT RISK
As we have seen, the holder of a bond does not know at what rate its coupons will be reinvested throughout the bond’s lifetime. Only zero-coupon bonds afford protection against this risk, simply because they do not carry any coupons!
First of all, note that this risk factor is the mirror image of the previous one. If interest rates rise, then the investor suffers a capital loss but is able to reinvest coupon payments at a higher rate than the initial yield to maturity. Conversely, a fall in interest rates leads to a loss on the reinvestment of coupons and to a capital gain.
Intuitively, it seems clear that for any fixed-income debt portfolio or security, there is a period over which:
- the loss on the reinvestment of coupons will be offset by the capital gain on the sale of the bond if interest rates decline;
- the gain on the reinvestment of coupons will be offset by the capital loss on the sale of the bond if interest rates rise.
All in all, once this period ends, the overall value of the portfolio (i.e. bonds plus reinvested coupons) is the same, and the investors will have achieved a return on investment identical to the yield to maturity indicated when the bond was issued.
In such circumstances, the portfolio is said to be immunised, i.e. it is protected against the risk of fluctuations in interest rates (capital risk and coupon reinvestment risk). This time period is known as the duration of a bond. It may be calculated at any time, either at issue or throughout the whole life of the bond.
For instance, an investor who wants to be assured of achieving a certain return on investment over a period of three years will choose a portfolio of debt securities with a duration of three years.
Note that the duration of a zero-coupon bond is equal to its remaining life.
In mathematical terms, duration is calculated as follows:
Duration can be regarded as being akin to the discounted average life of all the cash flows of a bond (i.e. interest and capital). The numerator comprises the discounted cash flows weighted by the number of years to maturity, while the denominator reflects the present value of the debt.
The Ahold Delhaize bond has a duration of 8.86 years at issue.
We can see that 8.83 × (1 + 0.417%) = 8.86 years.
Turning our attention back to modified duration, we can say that it is explained by the duration of a bond, which brings together in a single concept the various determinants of modified duration, i.e. time to maturity, coupon rate and market rates.
Section 20.6 DEFAULT RISK AND THE ROLE OF RATING
Default risk can be measured on the basis of a traditional financial analysis of the borrower’s situation or by using credit scoring, as we saw in Chapter 8. Specialised agencies, which analyse the risk of default, issue ratings that reflect the quality of the borrower’s signature. There are three agencies that dominate the market – Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch – but with the rise of a debt capital market for mid-sized companies, new rating agencies have emerged (e.g. Spread Research, Scope Credit Rating, or Egan-Jones).
Rating agencies provide ratings for companies, banks, sovereign states and municipalities. They can decide to rate a specific issue or to give an absolute rating for the issuer (rating given to first-ranking debt). Rating agencies also distinguish between short- and long-term prospects.
Some examples of short-term debt ratings:
Moody’s | Standard & Poor’s and Fitch | Definition | Examples (May 2021) |
---|---|---|---|
Prime 1 | A–1 | Superior ability to meet obligations | Sanofi, Nestlé, France |
Prime 2 | A–2 | Strong ability to repay obligations | Iberdrola, Deutsche Bank |
Prime 3 | A–3 | Acceptable ability to repay obligations | Morocco, ArcelorMittal |
Not Prime | B | Speculative | Senegal, Lufthansa |
C | Vulnerable | Argentina | |
D | Insolvent | Venezuela, Lebanon |
Some examples of long-term debt ratings:
Moody’s | Standard & Poor’s and Fitch | Definition | Examples (May 2021) |
---|---|---|---|
Aaa | AAA | Best quality, lowest risk | Germany, Australia Johnson & Johnson, Microsoft |
Aa | AA | High quality. Very strong ability to meet payment obligations | Nestlé, Sanofi, Apple, France |
A | A | Upper-medium grade. Issuer has strong capacity to meet its obligations | BASF, BNP Paribas, LVMH, Unilever |
Baa | BBB | Medium grade. Issuer has satisfactory capacity to meet its obligations | Morocco, Italy, Telefónica, Pernod Ricard |
Ba | BB | Speculative. Uncertainty of issuer’s capacity to meet its obligations | Renault, Attijariwafa Bank, Vietnam |
B | B | Issuer has poor capacity to meet its obligations | Casino, Pakistan |
Caa | CCC | Poor standing. Danger with respect to payment of interest and return of principal | CGG, Democratic Republic of Congo |
Ca | CC | Highly speculative. Often in default | Belize |
C | C | Close to insolvency | |
D or SD | Insolvent! | Vallourec, Lebanon |
Rating services also add an outlook to the rating they give – stable, positive or negative – which indicates the likely trend of the rating over the two to three years ahead.
Short- and medium-term ratings may be modified by a + or − or a numerical modifier, which indicates the position of the company within its generic rating category. This is referred to as a notch, such as between AA– and A+. The watchlist alerts investors that an event such as an acquisition, disposal or merger, once it has been weighed into the analysis, is likely to lead to a change in the rating. A company on the watchlist is likely to be upgraded when the expected outcome is positive, downgraded when the expected outcome is negative and, when the agency is unable to determine the outcome, it indicates an unknown change.
The term split rating is used when several rating agencies evaluate the same company and do not give equivalent ratings (Ba+ and BBB– for example).
Ratings between AAA and BBB− are referred to as investment grade, and those between BB+ and D as speculative grade (or non-investment grade). The distinction between these two types of risk is important to investors, especially institutional investors, who often are not permitted to buy the risky speculative grade bonds!
Bonds at the edge of the investment grade frontier, rated BB+/BB are called crossover bonds. This is an intermediate category that links the investment grade and non-investment grade categories. Depending on the state of the market, the definition of cross-over can vary and even include companies rated BB– in well-oriented markets.
In Europe, rating agencies generally rate companies at their request, which enables them to access privileged information (medium-term plans, contacts with management). Rating agencies very rarely rate companies without management cooperation. When they do, the accuracy of the rating depends on the quality of the information about the company available on the market. If the company does not require a public rating immediately (or if it does not like the rating allocated!), it may request that it be kept confidential, and it is then referred to as a shadow rating. The cost for a firm to get a first rating is quite high (over €500,000 on average, to which should be added an annual cost of over €100,000).
The rating process, which can take up to three months, differs from the scoring process as it is not only a quantitative analysis. The agency will also take into account:
- the size of the company
- the positioning of the company in its sector;
- the analysis of the financial data;
- the current capital structure but also the financing strategy.
Most rating agencies have developed teams capable of assessing the ESG aspects of an issuer or bond, or even acquired specialised agencies such as Vigeo Eiris acquired by Moody’s.
SUMMARY
QUESTIONS
EXERCISES
ANSWERS
BIBLIOGRAPHY
NOTES
Chapter 21. OTHER DEBT PRODUCTS
What a choice!
In the previous chapter, we first presented the bond as a debt product and we illustrated the key features of a debt product through this simple security. The reader will now discover that there are actually a very large number of products that follow the same logic as that of a bond: remuneration independent from the financial performance of the firm, a commitment to reimburse, and in the event of insolvency: priority over equity in the reimbursement of the money owed.
Whether short, medium or long term, market or bank, these instruments increasingly have an ESG dimension either through the use of proceeds or through an interest rate whose level depends on the achievement of environmental, social or governance objectives, such as the sustainable bonds presented in the previous chapter. These are known as green loans and impact loans.
Section 21.1 MARKETABLE DEBT SECURITIES
1/ SHORT-TERM MARKETABLE SECURITIES
The term bond (see previous chapter) is used to refer to marketable securities with maturity of over one year, but firms can also issue shorter-term instruments. Commercial paper refers to negotiable debt securities issued on the money market by large (and now medium-sized) companies for periods ranging from one day to one year. In practice, the average maturity of commercial paper is very short, between one and three months. Issuers can also launch paper denominated in foreign currency.
Short-term European paper (STEP) has homogenised the documentation for the issue of short-term paper in Europe.
Obtaining at least a short-term credit rating for a commercial paper issue is optional but implicitly recommended, since companies are required to indicate whether they have called on a specialised rating agency and, if so, must disclose the rating given. Moreover, any issuer can ask a bank for a commitment to provide financing should the market situation make it impossible to issue new notes once the current notes reach maturity. These backup lines came into their own in March 2020 when the Covid-19 crisis struck, as the commercial paper market virtually closed for a few weeks (before ECB provided liquidity by subscribing directly corporate commercial paper). Companies have to have such lines if they want their commercial paper issues to get an investment grade rating. Certain credit rating agencies, for example, will only keep their short-term rating of outstanding commercial paper at A1+ if 70% of the paper is covered by a backup line.
In addition to costing less than an overdraft, commercial paper gives the company some autonomy vis-à-vis its bankers. It is very flexible in terms of maturity and rates, but less so in terms of issue amounts.
Regardless of their country of origin, companies can issue US commercial paper. Such issues are governed by Regulation 144A defining the terms and conditions of securities issues by foreign companies in the US (see Chapter 25).
2/ LONG-TERM MARKETABLE SECURITIES
These include two types. The first is bonds, which we have seen in the previous chapter; they are listed and potentially subscribed to by international investors. The second usually takes the form of bonds (listed or not) that are subscribed to through a private placement1 by a limited number of institutional investors (insurers, asset managers, pension funds) of a specific country.
There is a market for such products in the US, where there is a specific regulation for such issues, but also in Germany (Schuldschein), France (Euro PP) and in Belgium (mostly to individual investors).
Private placements have become a real alternative for the financing of large (ArcelorMittal, BASF, Rolls-Royce) or mid-sized (Vilmorin, Copenhagen Airport) or even smaller (Touax) groups. The transaction usually consists in the issue of a bond (sometimes a loan) in dollars or euros with a fixed rate. These financings generally have a long maturity (7 to 15 years, with the bulk of the issue with a 6- to 7-year maturity). Most investors keep their investment until maturity (buy and hold). As there is no liquidity constraint, the issues (or each tranche within an issue) can therefore be of reduced size (compared to a standard bond issue).
Private placements are appealing for groups that are willing to diversify their financing sources and have access to long-term financing without the need for a rating. The documentation can include some stringent covenants, and investors in such products may show much less flexibility than banks when it comes to renegotiation.
The increasing constraints on bank solvency have led to reduced loan offerings, in particular outside the domestic market. Financings outside the banking circuit have therefore developed (shadow banking), and the increasing success of private placements is just an illustration thereof.
Section 21.2 BANK DEBT PRODUCTS
Banks have developed a number of credit products that, contrary to market financing, are tailored to meet the specific needs of their clients.
Business loans (i.e. loans not linked to a specific asset, which we will see in the next section) have two key characteristics: they are based on interest rates and take into account the overall risk of the company.
The credit line will either be negotiated with a single bank, in which case the term bilateral loan is used, or with a number of banks (usually for larger amounts) and the firm will then put in place a club deal or a syndicated loan.
For companies, these loans are often a backup mechanism to meet any kind of cash payment.
Business loans are based on interest rates – in other words, cost, and the cheapest loan on offer usually wins the company’s business. They rarely come with ancillary services such as debt recovery, and are determined according to the maturity schedule and margin on the market rate.
These loans take into account corporate risk. The bank lending the funds agrees to take on the company’s overall risk as reflected in its financial health. A profitable company will always obtain financing as long as it adopts a sufficiently prudent capital structure. In fact, the financial loan is guaranteed by the corporate manager’s explicit compliance with a certain number of criteria, such as ratios, etc. If the loan is accompanied by a pricing or rating grid, the interest rate margin charged changes during the course of the credit in line with changes in the economic and financial situation of the company as measured by ratios or its rating. If it improves, the credit margin will fall; if it deteriorates, it will rise.
Financial brokers have started to develop their activities between SMEs and commercial banks by acting as intermediaries.
1/ TYPES OF BUSINESS LOANS
Overdrafts on current accounts are the corporate treasurer’s means of adjusting to temporary cash shortages but, given their high interest charges, they should not be used too frequently or for too long. Small enterprises can only obtain overdrafts against collateral, making the overdraft more of a secured loan.
Commercial loans are short-term loans that are easy to set up and therefore very popular.
The bank provides the funds for the period specified by the two parties. The interest rate is the bank’s refinancing rate plus a margin negotiated between the two parties. It generally ranges from 0.10% to 1.50% per year depending on the borrower’s creditworthiness, since there are no other guarantees.
Commercial loans can be made in foreign currencies either because the company needs foreign currencies or because the lending rates are more attractive.
Bridge loans are loans set up in anticipation of future revenues that will ensure their repayment: capital increase, bond issue, sale of a subsidiary, etc. Necessarily short-term, and often used for large amounts, it has evolved in parallel with financial transactions, particularly mergers and acquisitions. Its margin increases sharply over time (step ups) to encourage the borrower to refinance or dispose of planned assets.
Alternatively, the firm can put in place a revolving credit facility (RCF), which is a confirmed short-term or mid-term credit line. When the line is put in place, the firm will not have debt on its balance sheet, but it will have the capacity to draw on the credit line when it needs it. On the undrawn amount, the corporate will only pay a commitment fee. In addition to the spread, a utilisation fee will be added depending on the percentage of credit drawn.
If the firm has to finance a specific investment, it will put in place a term loan that will be less flexible than the RCF. Usually the borrower has the capacity to reimburse by anticipation, but will not be allowed to re-borrow any of the repaid amounts.
Note that loans can be extended to subsidiaries which can then borrow under the terms of the contract.
Syndicated loans are typically set up for facilities exceeding €50m which a single bank does not want to take on alone. The lead bank (or banks, depending on the amounts involved), known as the mandated lead arranger, will arrange the line and commit to undertake the full amount of the credit. It will then syndicate part of the loan to 5–20 banks, which will each lend part of the amount. The mandated lead arranger (known as the documentation agent) will receive an arrangement (or coordination) and underwriting fee and the other banks a lower participation fee (or flat fee).
Firm underwriting by one firm will allow the company to maintain maximum confidentiality with regard to the transaction, which could be crucial, for example in the case of the acquisition of a listed company. This can be achieved by having only one arranging bank that will bear the whole credit risk until the transaction becomes public (it can then syndicate the loan).
When the loan is put in place with the house banks of the firm with no further syndication of the loan, we use the term club deal.
Much like the bond market, products promoting the environmental or societal virtues of the underlying company are emerging on the bank debt market. These are called impact loans. Certain large companies (Danone, Bel, Philips, etc.) have set up green RCFs (green loans) whose margin depends (marginally) on compliance with environmental objectives or criteria. Whilst the current financial impact for the company is marginal, this could change in an economic context of low liquidity markets, leading lenders to favour virtuous behaviour. In the short term, the corporate impact internally is predominantly psychological, but not necessarily negligible. Whereas €40bn had been lent in 2018, it was over €100bn in 2020.
2/ FEATURES OF THE LOAN DOCUMENTATION
The loan documentation sets out:
- the amount, maturity and purpose of the loan (i.e. the use of funds);
- the way the amount will be cashed in by the firm (one single payment, upon request by the firm, etc.), and minimum drawdown amounts;
- the interest rate, fixed or more often floating, periodicity of interest payments, rules for the computation of interest, fees to be paid;
- the reimbursement or amortisation profile;
- the potential early repayment options;
- the early termination events (change of control, …)
- the potential guarantees (by other group companies), pledges;
Banks include a certain number of covenants in the loan agreements, chiefly regarding accounting ratios, financial decisions and share ownership, which we will look at in detail in Section 39.2.
Two clauses are generally unavoidable:
- Pari passu clauses are covenants whereby the borrower agrees that the lender will benefit from any additional guarantees it may give on future credits.
- Cross default clauses specify that if the company defaults on another loan, the loan which has a cross default clause will become payable even if there is no breach of covenant or default of payment on this loan.
The agreement can also include a clause allowing banks to cancel the contract in the event of a material adverse change (MAC). The execution of such clauses (as well as “market disruption” clauses) is very complex from a legal point of view, but also from a commercial point of view.
Standardised legal documentation for syndicated loans has developed in Europe, led by the Loan Market Association (LMA) in London.
There exists a clear cyclicality on the loan market. After a period of high liquidity (2004–2007) marked by very favourable borrowing terms (both in terms of legal documentation and spreads), banks drastically tightened the terms and conditions of their loans after 2008 due to the weakening of their loan portfolios and the reduced market liquidity. Since 2013, lending conditions have become increasingly borrower-friendly and quite light.
Section 21.3 ASSET-BASED FINANCING
Unlike the previous financing tools which expose the lender to the company, the following financing tools only expose the lender to one of the company’s assets.
1/ FACTORING
Factoring is a credit transaction whereby a company holding an outstanding trade bill sells it to its bank or a specialised financial institution in exchange for the payment of the bill, less interest and commissions. Factoring companies or factors specialise in buying a given portion of a company’s trade receivables at a discount to the face value. The factoring company then collects the invoice payment directly from the debtors.
Factoring actually may include one or several of the following services to the firm:
- financing at an attractive interest rate;
- externalisation of receivables recovery;
- insurance against unpaid bills;
- off-balance-sheet financing.
Factoring is like discounting with additional services!
Banks increasingly offer non-recourse discounting services, which consist of an outright purchase of the trade receivables without recourse in the event of default. This technique removes contingent liabilities from the bank’s on- and off-balance-sheet accounts.
A factoring contract mentions:
- The scope of the contract (nature of the product, geography, type of debtors).
- The share of invoices available for financing (typically the bank will retain 8% to 15% of the invoices to cover the risk of unpaid invoices or litigation).
- The cap on financing and its features.
- The financing fee charged for the early availability of funds and that evolves in line with a money market index (EONIA, €ster of 3-month Euribor in Europe) plus a spread of up to 2.5%.
- The factoring fee that pays for the services and guarantee provided by the factor; this is computed as a percentage of invoices sold (between 0.2% and 2%). Its level depends on certain factors such as the nature and risk of clients, the statistics of unpaid invoices, the geographical spread of invoices, the average DSO (days sales outstanding), the number of customers and invoices and the average amount of invoices.
- Whether the contract allows for possible recourse to the company or not (if so, the firm will have a debt towards the factor after a pre-agreed period).
Large groups sometimes suggest that their suppliers put in place a reverse factoring line, whereby the supplier will get early payment of the invoice through a bank. The logic is the same as factoring, except that it is provided by the client. It is often used by clients in order to force lengthier payment terms (to the extent permitted by the applicable jurisdictions).
2/ DISCOUNTING
There are several short-term financing techniques that bridge the cash flow gap between invoicing and collection and are backed by the corresponding trade receivable. They are the counterpart to trade credit (inter-company credit), which is widely used in some countries (Continental Europe).
Discounting is a financing transaction whereby a company remits an unexpired commercial bill of exchange to the bank in return for an advance of the amount of the bill, less interest and fees.
The discounting bank becomes the owner of the bill and, ordinarily, is repaid when it presents the bill to its customer’s customer for payment. If, at maturity, the bill remains unpaid, then the bank turns to the company and asks them to pay. The company assumes the bankruptcy risk of its customer (such discounting is called discounting with recourse).
In principle, a company uses discounting to obtain financing based on the credit it extends to its own customers, which may be better known to the banking system than the company is. In this way, the company may be able to obtain better financing rates.
In discounting, the bank does not finance the company itself, but only certain receivables in its portfolio, i.e. the bills of exchange. For the bank, the risk is bound by a double guarantee: the credit quality of its customer backed by that of the issuer of the bill of exchange.
Under most accounting principles (including IFRS and US GAAP), discounted bills are reintegrated into accounts receivable and the bank advances are reported as debt.
For this reason, banks now also offer non-recourse discounting, which is a straight sale of customer receivables, under which the bank has no recourse to its customer if the bill remains unpaid at maturity. This technique allows the company to remove the receivables from its balance sheet and from its off-balance-sheet commitments and contingencies.
3/ INVENTORY FINANCING
Inventory financing is a form of pawn financing in which the firm retains ownership of inventory in which the lender has rights only in the event of the firm’s default.
All inventories are potentially concerned, except for those subject to retention of title and perishable inventories. The lender may request that the inventories securing its loan be physically transferred to the warehouses of a third party pledgor or isolated in a dedicated area (retention-of-title financing). Otherwise, they remain in the company. The financing is generally half of the net book value of the inventories concerned, bearing in mind that part of the company’s inventory is not concerned so as not to hinder its daily operations and logistics.
It is a preferred method of financing for financially weak companies to whom lenders would refuse to lend without this security.
Very old in certain sectors (agri-food, where it takes the form of a promissory note authorised by the company), inventory financing has a lower cost than an overdraft because it is well collaterised. However, it is cumbersome in terms of administrative procedures (contracts covering the financing, the pledges with a specialist collateral taker, audits, control and monitoring of the stock). The financing expires with the sale of the inventory and its exit is often through a discounting or factoring of the receivables from the buyers of the inventory. It is therefore a form of short-term financing with some exceptions (wine sector).
4/ FINANCIAL LEASES
While banks rarely offer long-term loans (more than five years) on the basis of a company’s intrinsic qualities alone, this is not the case for loans backed by a separate guarantee of the company’s assets through a suitable legal structure. Such an asset considerably limits the risk of insolvency and makes it possible to fix the price of the credit for a long period. Financial leasing enhances the value of the collateral provided by the borrower and is structured around this collateral.
Leasing is a contract for the lease of an asset over a fixed period of time between a company (industrial or commercial) and a bank or specialised institution that owns the asset, with a promise to sell (option to buy) the asset to the lessee at the end of the contract.
The interest of leasing for the “lender” is to have a loan secured by an asset legally distinct from the company’s assets. This technique can also be used in complex arrangements to play on the tax variable.
A company can thus use part of its operating fixed assets (land, buildings and other fixed assets) in a leasing system enabling it, if necessary, to buy back the asset at maturity for a contractually fixed value.
Two main types of leasing can be distinguished:
- equipment leasing concerns capital goods, machinery and tools. The company generally chooses its equipment from the supplier. It then goes to a leasing company which buys the goods from the supplier instead of the firm and leases them to the latter under an irrevocable commitment over a specified period. At the end of this period, the company has the option of renouncing the lease, renewing the contract, or acquiring the equipment for a price that takes into account the payments made during the lease period;
- real estate leasing concerns operations whereby a company leases real estate for professional use (offices, factories, hangars, etc.) owned by a leasing company with the possibility of becoming the owner of all or part of the leased property, at the latest at the end of the lease. Linked to the depreciation period of the leased asset, the duration of the real estate leasing contract is generally between 10 and 20 years.
The lessor and the lessee are bound by an agreement that sets out the conditions under which one of the parties may terminate its commitment.
While in the company’s financial statements leasing is often off-balance sheet since the company is not the legal owner of the asset, in the consolidated financial statements the economic reality prevails over the legal analysis. In the vast majority of cases, the asset is on the balance sheet and a corresponding debt is shown as a financial liability.
Finally, let us mention the long-term financial lease without purchase option (operating lease), which is widely used in certain sectors (IT, transport, etc.). This is a real lease of the property without the company having the option to acquire it after a certain period of use.2 This has nothing to do with leasing, where the initial intention of the borrower is ultimately to be able to acquire the asset financed in this way.
5/ SALE AND LEASE BACK
Sale and lease back is a procedure by which a company that owns a factory, an office block, a machine, etc. sells it to a leasing company or an investor, which immediately places it at the company’s disposal through an ordinary rental agreement or an equipment or real-estate leasing agreement, depending on the nature of the asset sold.
These transactions are described further in Chapter 52.
6/ SECURITISATION
Trade receivables or inventories are acquired by an SPV (special purpose vehicle) so as to pool risks and take advantage of the law of large numbers. The SPV finances itself by issuing securities to outside investors: equity, mezzanine debt, subordinated debt, senior debt, commercial paper, etc., so as to offer different risk–return profiles to investors. The SPV, such as a debt securitisation fund, receives principal payments emanating from the receivables it bought from the companies and uses the proceeds to cover its obligations on the securities it has issued.
To boost the rating of the securities, the SPV buys more receivables or inventories than the volume of securities to be issued, the excess serving as enhancement. Alternatively, the SPV can take out an insurance policy with an insurance company. The SPV might also obtain a short-term line of credit to ensure the payment of interest in the event of a temporary interruption in the flow of interest and principal payments.
Once isolated, certain assets are of higher quality than the balance sheet as a whole, thus allowing the company to finance them at preferential rates. That said, the cost of these arrangements is higher than that of straight debt, especially for a high-quality borrower with an attractive cost of debt. Hence, they are hard to put in place for less than €50m, except if the platform is syndicated between several firms.
For example, ArcelorMittal securitises its account receivables and Avis its rental fleet, while Glencore does the same thing with its lead, nickel, zinc, copper and aluminium inventories.
The introduction before 2008 of subprime loans in some securitisation conduits to boost performance brought many of the securitisation vehicles and, in turn, the technique into disrepute. In Europe and in the USA, securitisation arrangers now have to retain 5% of the credit risk of securitised assets for their own account. This provides an incentive for them to take a close look at the quality of the assets and not to “wash their hands” of them once the deal is set up and distributed, to the detriment of the final investors and the credibility of the securitisation itself.
7/ BONDS AND GUARANTEES AND EXPORT CREDIT
Bonds and guarantees are not credit lines as the bank does not provide the funds unless the firm defaults (in which case the bank will pay instead of the firm). They are off-balance-sheet commitments.
For the firm, a bank guarantee generally allows it to defer payment or not to provide a down payment (rents, customer advance payment).
Bid bonds are issued by the bank of a company that responds to a call for tenders to ensure that it will honour its business commitments if it is selected. Performance bonds are issued by a bank to guarantee the proper performance of a contract (construction, etc.) within a certain timeframe. Finally, warranty bonds are issued from the commissioning of an installation to cover any defects found after delivery. They are used in the real-estate sector or for capital goods (construction of factories or power plants).
A corporate can ask a bank to issue a financial guarantee or letter of credit to secure a payment (representation and warranties, litigation). They also make it possible to obtain loans from another bank or other body more easily or on better terms, or to conclude a contract which, without the guarantee provided by the guarantor, could not have been envisaged.
The documentary credit ensures the successful completion and settlement of a commercial contract, most often between an exporter and an importer of different nationalities. The banks of the two trading partners guarantee their respective customers, which limits the risk of unpaid delivery or goods paid for but not delivered.
After signing the commercial contract between an importing buyer and an exporting seller, it is up to the buyer to initiate the issuance of the documentary credit by contacting its bank (issuing bank), which passes on to a correspondent bank the opening of a documentary credit payable on its coffers against the presentation of a list of documents predefined by the buyer. The seller will have the assurance of being paid when the bank has received and recognised the required documents as being in conformity.
There are several types of payment procedures (at sight, by deferred payment, by negotiation or discount or by acceptance of a draft), but their basis remains the same: to establish a relationship of trust between business partners who do not know each other.
The documentary credit is a method of payment, of guaranteeing payment, but also often facilitates financing (because it allows discounting), the precise terms of which are defined by the “Rules and Practices” of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC).
The stand-by letter of credit (SBLC) is subject to the same operating rules as the documentary credit, defined by the “Rules and Practices” issued by the ICC. It is used to cover a current flow of transactions between a client and its supplier for an outstanding amount up to the limits predefined in the letter of credit.
Buyer’s credit or export credit is used to finance export contracts of goods and/or services between an exporter and the buyer importing the goods/services. The banks granting the buyer’s credit undertake to provide the borrower with the funds needed to pay the supplier directly according to the terms specified by the contract.
The borrower, in turn, gives the bank an irrevocable mandate to pay the funds only to the supplier. The agreement stipulates the interest rates, duration and repayment conditions of the loan, and any bank fees or penalties that may arise if the borrower fails to meet its obligations.
The credit agreement also specifies that the transaction is purely financial, since the borrower must repay the funds notwithstanding any disputes that may arise in the course of its business with the exporter. The advantages to the supplier are:
- insurance against payment default;
- the cost of the credit is not deducted from the contract while the risk level remains acceptable to the bank;
- the portion of the contract that must be paid upon maturity is not on the balance sheet.
The credit risk taken by the bank setting up a buyer credit is partially covered by export credit agency under certain conditions of duration, rates, etc., which have been accepted by the signatory states of the “consensus” agreements (OECD countries). These agreements specify the rules for financing export contracts for capital goods and/or services benefiting from official support in order to neutralise the financing criterion in the evaluation of commercial offers. In addition to the guarantee of an export credit agency, official support applies to the terms of export financing, in particular the duration and rate of credit, which makes it very attractive compared to market financing.
Certain types of buyer’s credit can also be used to finance major projects and thus resemble project financing, which we will discuss now.
8/ PROJECT FINANCING
Bankers’ imaginations know no bounds when creating specialised bank financing packages that combine funding with accounting, tax, legal or financial advantages. Sometimes lenders take the global risk of the group in the form of subordinated debts (see Chapter 24). In other cases they may only be taking the risk of one project of the group, which, most of the time, is isolated into a separate entity.
(a) Principle and techniques
Project financing is used to raise funds for large-scale projects with costs running into the hundreds of millions of euros, such as oil extraction, mining, oil refineries, the purchase of methane tankers, the construction of power plants or bridges, etc.
Lenders base their decision to extend such financing on an assessment of the project itself rather than the borrower, and on the projected cash flows generated by the project that will repay the credit. They rely on the project’s assets as collateral for the debt.
This type of financing was first used in the early 1930s by American banks to extend financing to oil prospectors who could not offer the guarantees required for standard loans. The banks drew up loan contracts in which a fraction of the oil still in the ground was given as collateral and part of the future sales were set aside to repay the loan.
With this financial innovation, bankers moved beyond their traditional sphere of financing to become more involved, albeit with a number of precautions, in the actual risk arising from the project.
But it is all too easy to become intoxicated by the sophistication and magnitude of such financial structures and their potential returns. Remember that the bank is taking on far more risk than with a conventional loan, and could well find itself at the head of a fleet of super oil tankers of uncertain market value. Lastly, the parent company cannot completely wash its hands of the financial risk inherent in the project, and banks will try to get the parent company’s financial guarantee, just in case.
When considering project financing, it is essential to look closely at the professional expertise and reputation of the contractor. The project’s returns, and thus its ability to repay the loan, often depend on the contractor’s ability to control a frequently long and complex construction process in which cost overruns and missed deadlines are far from rare. Project financing is not just a matter of applying a standard technique. Each individual project must be analysed in detail to determine the optimal financing structure so that the project can be completed under the best possible financial conditions.
The financiers, the future manager of the project and the contractor(s) are grouped in a pool taking the form of a company set up specifically for the project. This company is the vehicle for the bank financing.
Clearly, project financing cannot be applied to new technologies which have uncertain operating cash flows, since the loan repayment depends on these cash flows. Similarly, the operator must have acknowledged expertise in operating the project, and the project’s political environment must be stable to ensure that operations proceed smoothly. Only thus can investors and banks be assured that the loan will be repaid as planned.
In addition to investors and banks, two other players can take on an important role in project finance:
- international financial organisations such as the World Bank and regional development banks like the EBRD,3 especially if the project is located in a developing country. These institutions may lend funds directly or guarantee the loans extended by the other banks;
- export-facilitating organisations like Bpifrance in France, Hermès in Germany or SACE in Italy, which underwrite both the financial and the commercial risks arising on the project.
(b) Risks and how they are hedged
The risks on large projects arise during three quite distinct stages:
- when the project is being set up;
- during construction;
- during operations.
Risks arise as soon as the project is in the planning stage. Analysing a major project can take up to several years and requires considerable expertise and numerous technical and financial feasibility studies. All this can be quite costly. At this stage, no one is sure that the project will actually materialise. Moreover, when there is a call for tenders, the potential investors are not even sure that their bid will be retained.
But, of course, the greatest risk occurs during construction, since any loss can only be recouped once the facilities are up and running!
Some of the main risks incurred during the construction phase are:
- Cost overruns or delays. These are par for the course on large projects that are complex and lengthy. Such risks can be covered by specific insurance that can make up for the lack of income subject to the payment of additional premiums. Any claims benefits are paid directly to the lenders of the funds, or to both borrowers and lenders. Another method is for the contractor to undertake to cover all or part of any cost overruns and to pay an indemnity in the event of delayed delivery. In exchange, the contractor may be paid a premium for early completion.
- Non-completion of work, which is covered by performance bonds and contract guarantees, which unconditionally guarantee that the industrial unit will be built on schedule and with the required output capacity and production quality.
- “Economic upheavals” imposed by the government (e.g. car factories in Indonesia, dams in Nigeria, with initial strong support by local governments, which was withdrawn later on because of cash shortages or a change of government) and arbitrary acts of government, such as changes in regulations.
- Natural catastrophes that are not normally covered by conventional insurance policies.
As a result, the financing is released according to expert assessments of the progress made on the project.
Risk exposure culminates between the end of construction and the start of operations. At this point, all funds have been released but the activity that will generate the flows to repay them has not yet begun and its future is still uncertain. Moreover, a new risk emerges when the installations are delivered to the client, since they must be shown to comply with the contract and the client’s specifications. Because of the risk that the client may refuse to accept the installations, the contract usually provides for an independent arbitrator, generally a specialised international firm, to verify that the work delivered is in conformity with the contract.
Once the plant has come on stream, anticipated returns may be affected by:
- Operating risks per se: faulty design of the facilities, rising operating or procurement costs. When this occurs, the profit and loss account diverges from the business plan presented to creditors to convince them to extend financing. Lenders can hedge against this risk by requiring long-term sales contracts, such as:
- take or pay: these contracts link the owner of the facilities (typically for the extraction and/or transformation of energy products) and the future users whose need for it is more or less urgent. The users agree to pay a certain amount that will cover both interest and principal payments, irrespective of whether the product is delivered and of any cases of force majeure;
- take and pay: this clause is far less restrictive than take or pay, since clients simply agree to take delivery of the products or to use the installations if they have been delivered and are in perfect operating condition.
- Market risks. These risks may arise when the market proves smaller than expected, the product becomes obsolete or the conditions in which it is marketed change. They can be contained, although never completely eliminated, by careful study of the sales contracts, in particular the revision and cancellation clauses which are the linchpin of project financing, as well as detailed market research.
- Foreign exchange risks are usually eliminated by denominating the loan in the same currency as the flows arising on the project or through swap contracts (see Chapter 51).
- Abandonment risk arises when the interests of the industrial manager and the bankers diverge. For example, the former may want to bail out as soon as the return on capital employed appears insufficient, while the latter will only reach this conclusion when cash flow turns negative. Here again, the project financing contract must lay down clear rules on how decisions affecting the future of the project are to be taken.
- Political risks, for which no guarantees exist but which can be partly underwritten by state agencies.
Section 21.4 OTHER DEBT PRODUCTS
Since mid-2010, regulatory relaxations and new technologies have enabled the emergence of debt financing that involves neither banks nor markets.
Crowdlending allows companies, predominantly SMEs, to contract debt in the form of bonds from individuals on specialised Internet platforms such as October. Amounts per issuer range from a few tens of thousands of euros to €8m per 12-month period.
Some investment funds have specialised in granting loans directly to companies to finance them globally or some of their assets.
SUMMARY
QUESTIONS
ANSWERS
BIBLIOGRAPHY
NOTES
- 1 See Section 25.6.
- 2 See Section 7.12 for the accounting and financial treatments of operating leases.
- 3 European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
Chapter 22. SHARES
One of a kind, or one of many?
As we saw in Chapter 4, the capital that is injected or left in the business by investors, which is exposed to the various risks of commercial or industrial ventures, and for which in return they receive the profits of, is called equity.
A share or a stock is a security that is not redeemed – the investment can only be realised through a disposal – and whose revenue flows are uncertain. It is in compensation for these two disadvantages that shareholders have a say in managing the company via the voting rights attached to their shares.
The purpose of this chapter is to present the key parameters used in analysing stocks and show how the stock market operates. For a discussion of stock as a claim option on operating assets, refer to Chapter 34, and to find out more about stock as a claim on assets and commitments, see Chapter 31 on company valuation.
Section 22.1 BASIC CONCEPTS
This section presents the basic concepts for analysing the value of stocks, whether or not they are listed. Remember that past or future financial transactions could artificially skew the market value of a stock with no change in total equity value. When this happens, technical adjustments are necessary, as explained in Section 22.5 of this chapter. We will then assume that they have been done.
1/ VOTING RIGHTS
Shares are normally issued with one voting right each. For our purposes, this is more of a compensation for the risk assumed by the shareholder than a basic characteristic of stock.
A company can issue shares with either limited or no voting rights. These are known under different names, such as preference shares, savings shares or simply non-voting shares.
At the other extreme, companies in some countries, such as the US and Sweden, issue several types of shares (“A” shares, “B” shares, etc.) having different numbers of voting rights. Some shareholders use this to strengthen their hold on a company, as we will see in Chapter 41.
2/ EARNINGS PER SHARE (EPS)
EPS is equal to net attributable profit divided by the total number of shares issued. EPS reflects the theoretical value creation during a given year, as net profit belongs to shareholders.
There is no absolute rule for presenting EPS. However, financial analysts generally base it on earnings restated from non-recurring items, as shown below:
ArcelorMittal’s 2021 EPS was estimated in mid-2021 to be $4.99 (it was −$0.64 in 2020).
Some companies have outstanding equity-linked securities, such as convertible bonds, warrants and stock options. In this case, in addition to standard EPS, analysts calculate fully diluted EPS. We will show how they do this in Section 22.5.
3/ DIVIDEND PER SHARE (DPS)
Dividends are generally paid out from the net earnings for a given year, but can be paid out of earnings that have been retained from previous years. Companies sometimes pay out a quarterly (in the USA) or half-year (in the UK) dividend.
In 2021 ArcelorMittal paid a $0.30 dividend on 2020 results (it did not pay a dividend in 2020 on its 2019 results).
Some shares – like preference shares – pay out higher dividends than other shares or have priority in dividend payments over those other shares. They are generally non-voting shares.
4/ DIVIDEND YIELD
Dividend yield per share is the ratio of the last dividend paid out to the current share price:
The dividend yield on ArcelorMittal is 1% (dividend of $0.30 on a share with a price of $26.4).
The average yield on stocks listed on European stock markets is currently about 3%.
DIVIDEND YIELD – PAN-EUROPEAN SECTORS (AS OF 1 JANUARY)
Years | Automotive | Biotechnology | Chemistry | Defence | Financial Institutions | Food | Oil & Gas | Real Estate | Telecom | Utilities |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1990 | 2.4% | 1.1% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.7% |
1995 | 0.8% | 0.4% | 3.1% | 0.3% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.3% |
2000 | 2.4% | 0.1% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 2.8% |
2005 | 2.5% | 0.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 3.1% |
2010 | 1.1% | 0.5% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% |
2015 | 2.2% | 0.6% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 5.1% |
2016 | 2.2% | 0.5% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% |
2017 | 2.4% | 0.6% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% |
2018 | 2.5% | 0.5% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.4% |
2019 | 3.6% | 0.6% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 5.0% | 4.3% |
2020 | 3.3% | 0.4% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 5.1% | 3.7% |
2021 | 2.3% | 0.5% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 6.7% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 3.2% |
Source: Factset, Datastream
5/ PAYOUT RATIO
The payout ratio is the percentage of earnings from a given year that is distributed to shareholders in the form of dividends. It is calculated by dividing dividends by earnings for the given year:
When the payout ratio is above 100%, a company is distributing more than its earnings; it is tapping its reserves. Conversely, a payout close to 0% indicates that the company is reinvesting almost all its earnings into the business. In 2018, European companies paid out an average of about 45% of their earnings.
It will be clear that the higher the payout ratio, the weaker future earnings growth will be. The reason for this is that the company will then have less funds to invest. As a result, fast-growing companies such as SolarWorld and Google pay out little or none of their earnings, while a mature company would pay out a higher percentage of its earnings. Mature companies are said to have moved from the status of a growth stock to that of an income stock (also called a yield stock), i.e. a company that pays out in dividends a large part of its net income, such as a utility.
The dividend is legally drawn on parent company profits. However, it should be assessed on the basis of consolidated net attributable profit – the only meaningful figure, as in most cases the parent company is merely a holding company.
2021 ArcelorMittal’s payout ratio is not relevant as the company will pay a dividend whereas it was loss making (EPS of –$1.20) in 2020.
6/ BOOK VALUE OF EQUITY (OR NET ASSET VALUE) PER SHARE
Book value of equity per share is the accounting estimate of the value of a share. While book value may appear to be directly comparable to equity value, it is determined on an entirely different basis – it is the result of strategies undertaken up to the date of the analysis and corresponds to the amount invested by the shareholders in the company (i.e. new shares issued and retained earnings).
Book value may or may not be restated. This is generally done only for financial institutions and holding companies.
7/ COST OF EQUITY (EXPECTED RATE OF RETURN)
According to the CAPM (see Chapter 19), the cost of equity is equal to the risk-free rate plus a risk premium that reflects the stock’s market (or systematic) risk.
8/ SHAREHOLDER RETURN (HISTORICAL RATE OF RETURN)
In a given year, shareholders receive a return in the form of dividends (dividend yield) and the increase in price or market value (capital gain):
Total shareholder return (TSR) is calculated in the same way, but over a longer period. It reflects the IRR of the investment in the stock.
9/ LIQUIDITY
A listed security is said to be liquid when it is possible to buy or sell a large number of shares on the market without it having too great an influence on the price. Liquidity is a typical measure of the relevance of a share price. It would not make much sense to analyse the price of a stock that is traded only once a week, for example.
A share’s liquidity is measured mainly in terms of free float, trade volumes and analyst coverage (number of analysts following the stock, quality and frequency of brokers’ notes).
(a) Free float
The free float is the proportion of shares available to purely financial investors, to buy when the price looks low and sell when it looks high. Free float does not include shares that are kept for other reasons, i.e. control, sentimental attachment or “buy and hold” strategies.
Loyalty is (unfortunately) not a financial concept and a skyrocketing share price could make sellers out of loyal shareholders, thus widening the free float.
Free float can be measured either in millions of euros or in percentage of total shares.
(b) Volumes
Liquidity is also measured in terms of volumes traded daily. Here again, absolute value is the measure of liquidity, as a major institutional investor will first try to determine how long it will take to buy (or sell) the amount it has targeted. But volumes must also be expressed in terms of percentage of the total number of shares and even as a percentage of free float. Liquidity is generally considered good when more than 0.2% of the free float is traded each day.
10/ MARKET CAPITALISATION
Market capitalisation is the market value of company equity. It is obtained by multiplying the total number of shares outstanding (number of shares issued less the number of treasury shares1, see Section 7.19) by the share price.
However, rarely can the majority of shares be bought at this price at the same time, for example, in an attempt to take control and appoint new management. Most often, a premium must be paid (see Chapters 31 and 45).
It is a mistake to take only the shares in free float in determining market capitalisation. All shares must be included, as market cap is the market value of company equity and not of the free float.
By way of illustration, you will find in the appendix to this book the top twenty market capitalisations of the world’s major economies.
On 6 May 2021, ArcelorMittal had a market cap of $34,920m.
Section 22.2 MULTIPLES
In order to understand the level of stock prices, investors must make some comparisons with comparable investments (similar stocks). By doing so, they can arbitrage between stocks, taking into account their belief about the companies’ qualities and the level of their prices. To achieve this objective, investors normally relate the stock price to a financial item.
There are two basic categories of multiples:
- those which allow for a direct estimate of the market capitalisation. In this section, we will refer specifically to the price to earnings ratio (P/E);
- those which are independent of the capital structure of the company. These multiples allow for the estimate of the value of the entire firm (firm or enterprise value) or, similarly, the market value of the capital employed. The EBIT multiple (EV/EBIT) and the EBITDA multiple (EV/EBITDA) will be presented in this section. Since capital employed is financed by equity and net debt, the enterprise value must then be allocated between creditors (first) and shareholders. The following formula shows how to derive the value of equity from the enterprise value:
1/ EBITDA AND EBIT MULTIPLES
(a) The principle
Investors interested in estimating the enterprise value of a company frequently find that the stock market believes that a fair value for similar companies could be, for example, eight times their EBIT (or operating profit). With a pinch of salt, the investor can then decide to apply the same multiple to the EBIT of the company they are considering.
Investors name this ratio the EBIT multiple:
If the operating profit remains unchanged, and disregarding corporate income taxes and discounting, these figures imply that investors must wait eight years before they can recover their investment. Conversely, if the operating profit increases, they will not have to wait so long.
In practice, when applying the multiple, financial analysts prefer using the operating profit of the current period or of the next period.
Where the comparison is made using companies with significant different corporate income tax rates (because they belong to different countries, for example), it is more appropriate to consider an operating profit net of taxes (net operating profit after tax, or NOPAT). This result can easily be obtained by multiplying the operating profit by (1 – the observed corporate tax rate). This is rarely done.
Similarly, EBITDA multiple can be computed as:
(b) The multiple drivers
Although the EBITDA/EBIT multiples are ratios that summarise a lot of information, their value is basically determined by three factors: the growth rate of the operating profit, the risk of capital employed and the level of interest rates.
- The growth rate of the operating profit. There is a certain degree of correlation between the multiple and the expected growth of the operating profit. This is no surprise. Investors will be more willing to pay a higher price if the operating profit is expected to grow at a high rate (as long as the firm creates value, i.e. the investments generate a sufficient return). They are now buying with a high EBITDA/EBIT multiple based on current EBITDA or operating profit but with a more reasonable EBITDA/EBIT multiple based on future EBITDA or operating profit that is expected to be much higher.
The reverse is also true: investors will not be ready to pay a high EBITDA/EBIT multiple for a company, the EBITDA or operating profit of which is expected to remain stable or increase slowly. Hence the low multiples for companies with low growth prospects.
The reader should also not forget that behind the growth of the EBITDA/operating profit is the growth of both revenues and EBITDA/operating margins.
The following graph shows the relation between the medium-term growth rate of the operating profit of some European companies and their multiples.
- The risk of the capital employed. The link between growth rate and multiples is not always verified in the market. Sometimes some companies show a low multiple and a high growth rate, and vice versa.
This apparent anomaly can often be explained by considering the risk profile of the company. Analysts and investors in fact do not take the expected growth rate for granted. Thus, they tend to counterweight the effects of the growth rate with the robustness of these estimates.
- The level of interest rates. There is a strong inverse correlation between the level of interest rates and the EBITDA and EBIT multiples. This link is rather intuitive: our reader is, in fact, perfectly aware that high interest rates increase the returns expected by investors (think, for example, about the CAPM equation!), thus reducing the value of any asset.
Generally speaking, we can say that the level of the multiple can be frequently explained – at a specific moment – by the current level of interest rates in the economy.
The EBITDA and EBIT multiples allow us to assess the company valuation compared to the overall market.
2/ PRICE TO EARNINGS (P/E)
(a) The principle
Even if the EBITDA and EBIT multiples have become very popular in the investor and analyst community, a ratio simpler to compute has been used for a while to determine share prices. The P/E (price/earnings ratio), which, when multiplied by the earnings per share (EPS), provides an estimate for the value of the share.
P/E is equal to:
Another way to put this is to consider the aggregate values:
EPS reflects theoretical value creation over a period of one year. Unlike a dividend, EPS is not a revenue stream.
As an illustration, the following table shows the P/E ratios of the main markets since 1990. We can see the impact of the 2000 bubble on P/Es for technology, media, and telecommunications groups but also the impact of shifts in the automobile industry (electric, autonomous cars) in 2019.
While there is no obligation to do so, P/E is based on estimated earnings for the current year. However, forward earnings are also considered; for example, P/EN +1 expresses the current market value of the stock divided by the estimated earnings for the following year. For fast-growing companies or companies that are currently losing money, P/EN +1 or P/EN +2 are sometimes used, either to give a more representative figure (and thus avoid scaring the investor!) or because, in the case of loss-making companies, it is impossible to calculate P/E for year N.
The widespread use of P/E (which is implicitly assumed to be constant over time) to determine equity value has given rise to the myth of EPS as a financial criterion to assess a company’s financial strategy. Such a decision might or might not be taken on the basis of its positive or negative impact on EPS. This is why P/E is so important, but it also has its limits, as we will demonstrate in Chapters 26, 27 and in Section IV.
HISTORICAL P/E RATIOS – PAN-EUROPEAN SECTORS (AS OF 1 JANUARY)
Years | Automotive | Biotechnology | Chemistry | Defence | Financial Institutions | Food | Oil & Gas | Real Estate | Telecom | Utilities |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1990 | 6.7 | 21.7 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 16.1 | 14.1 | 11.2 | 24.8 | 12.8 | 11.1 |
1995 | 13.4 | 30.4 | 13.5 | 14.3 | 14.1 | 12.9 | 17.3 | 20.4 | 12.7 | 13.4 |
2000 | 13.2 | 180.5 | 18.4 | 19.0 | 19.3 | 17.1 | 38.5 | 21.2 | 51.7 | 17.3 |
2005 | 12.6 | 25.6 | 24.9 | 32.6 | 15.8 | 17.8 | 15.4 | 19.6 | 20.5 | 13.9 |
2010 | 52.5 | 19.0 | 20.4 | 10.4 | 13.8 | 11.8 | 18.4 | 13.0 | 12.3 | 11.2 |
2015 | 8.6 | 25.0 | 14.9 | 17.2 | 13.4 | 22.3 | 11.0 | 17.1 | 17.0 | 13.6 |
2016 | 9.7 | 40.3 | 13.4 | 17.1 | 11.9 | 16.3 | 16.8 | 17.8 | 20.2 | 14.0 |
2017 | 9.3 | 31.5 | 19.0 | 19.7 | 12.5 | 24.2 | 25.1 | 17.1 | 13.5 | 13.7 |
2018 | 9.0 | 42.5 | 17.9 | 27.3 | 12.8 | 25.5 | 21.7 | 18.2 | 15.5 | 13.4 |
2019 | 6.2 | 22.8 | 10.0 | 21.5 | 10.1 | 18.9 | 11.8 | 13.9 | 15.3 | 13.8 |
2020 | 8.9 | 37.4 | 8.1 | 21.4 | 11.6 | 27.2 | 15.9 | 19.6 | 17.5 | 13.2 |
2021 | 22.8 | 42.4 | 22.5 | 24.1 | 11.8 | 19.8 | 85.4 | 21.0 | 15.0 | 20.5 |
Source: Data from Factset, Datastream
P/E is conceptually similar to the EBIT multiple, and even more so to the NOPAT multiple. The latter is a division of enterprise value by after-tax operating profit, while P/E is a division of market value of equity by net profit.
Hence, many of the things we have said about the EBIT multiple also apply to P/E:
- Another way of understanding P/E is to note that it expresses market value on the basis of the number of years of earnings that are being bought. Thus, an equity value of 100 and earnings of 12.5 means the P/E is 8. This means that if EPS remains constant, the investor will have to wait eight years to recover their investment, while omitting corporate income taxes and discounting. If the EPS rises (falls), the investor will have to wait less (more) than eight years.
- In an efficient market, the greater the EPS growth, the higher the P/E and vice versa (on condition that the firm creates value, i.e. has a higher ROE than the rate of return required by shareholders).
- The greater the perceived risk, the lower the P/E and vice versa.
- P/E is inversely proportional to interest rates: all other factors being equal, the higher the interest rates, the lower the P/Es and vice versa, again assuming efficient markets.
P/E is used in the same way as the EBITDA or EBIT multiple. To value a company, it is useful to set it alongside other companies that are as comparable as possible in terms of activity, growth prospects and risk, and then apply their P/E to it.
P/E reflects a risk that the EBIT multiple does not – financial structure – which comes on top of the risk presented by the operating assets.
(b) P/E and investors’ required rate of return
Inverse P/E, also called earnings yield, is sometimes mistakenly used in approximating investors’ required rate of return. This should only be done in those very rare cases where earnings growth is nil and the company pays out 100% of its earnings. Here is our reasoning:
Then:
and thus:
The P/E of a company with an EPS of 12 that is trading at 240 would then be:
The inverse P/E is just 5%, whereas the required return nowadays is probably about 8%.
All in all, the inverse P/E reflects only an immediate accounting return for a new shareholder who has bought the share for V and who has a claim on EPS:
- A very low return means that shareholders expect EPS growth to be strong enough to ultimately obtain a return commensurate with their required rate of return.
- A very high rate means that immediate return is uncertain and shareholders expect negative EPS growth to ultimately bring accounting return closer to their required rate of return.
- A normal rate, i.e. in line with the required rate of return, means that EPS growth is expected to be nil, and the investment is considered a perpetual annuity.
3/ OTHER MULTIPLES
Apart from the EBIT multiple and the P/E, investors and analysts sometimes use the following multiples.
(a) Sales multiple
Sometimes the value of the firm is assessed in proportion to its sales, and the ratio enterprise value/sales is then computed. This ratio is often used to derive the value of shops or very small companies. For example, a rule of thumb holds that within the food industry, businesses are worth twice the amount of their sales, whereas a telecoms company is worth three times its sales.
Using such multiples implies that the compared firms have the same type of margin. It implies somehow a normative return over sales for firms in a certain sector.
We believe that sales multiples should not be used for mid-sized or large companies as they completely disregard profitability. They have often been used in the past, in times of bull markets, to value emerging technology, for example, as such companies did not show a positive EBIT!
The same type of criticism can be levelled against multiples of numbers of subscribers, numbers of clicks, etc., or other multiples of volume of activity. These multiples not only assume a comparable return over sales but also the same revenue per unit.
(b) Free cash flow multiple
The ratio of enterprise value to free cash flow, or EV/FCF, is a concept similar to the multiple of operating income mutatis mutandis. It represents the number of times free cash flow is capitalised by the enterprise value.
This ratio should be a much better indicator than the EBIT multiple, whose accounting nature of the denominator makes it susceptible to manipulation. Indeed, free cash flow is the cash flow that the firm can redistribute to its fund providers, shareholders and lenders, after financing its investments. However, it is of little significance for companies with weak or negative cash flows because they are in a strong growth phase or at the bottom of the cycle.
In other words, this ratio only makes sense for mature groups whose investments are stable, making free cash flow very significant. The inverse of this ratio is called free cash flow yield.
(c) Price to book ratio (PBR)
The PBR (price to book ratio) measures the ratio between market value and book value:
The PBR can be calculated either on a per share basis or for an entire company. Either way, the result is the same.
It may seem surprising to compare book value to market value, which, as we have seen, results from a company’s future cash flow. Even in the event of liquidation, equity value can be below book value (due, for example, to restructuring costs, accounting issues, etc.).
However, there is an economic link between book value and market value, as long as book value correctly reflects the market value of assets and liabilities.
It is not hard to show that a stock’s PBR will be above 1 if its market value is above book value, when the ROE is above the required rate of return (kE). The reason for this is that if a company consistently achieves 15% ROE, and the shareholders require only 10%, then a book value of 100 would mean an equity value of 150, and the shareholders will have achieved their required rate of return:
However, the PBR will be below 1 if the ROE is below the required rate of return (kE).
Theoretically, a sector cannot show equity value below book value for long, as sector consolidation will soon intervene and re-establish a balance, assuming that markets are efficient. Nor can a sector have equity value higher than book value for long, as new entrants will be attracted to the sector and bring down the abnormally high returns. Market equilibrium will sooner or later have been re-established.
As an illustration, here are the PBRs seen on the main European markets since 1990:
PBR – PAN-EUROPEAN SECTORS (AS OF 1 JANUARY)
Years | Automotive | Biotechnology | Chemistry | Defence | Financial Institutions | Food | Oil & Gas | Real Estate | Telecom | Utilities |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1990 | 1.2 | nm* | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
1995 | 1.2 | nm* | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
2000 | 1.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 4.2 | 2.2 |
2005 | 1.1 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 2.2 |
2010 | 0.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 1.6 |
2015 | 1.2 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
2016 | 1.2 | 6.7 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
2017 | 1.1 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
2018 | 1.2 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 |
2019 | 0.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 1.5 |
2020 | 0.9 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 1.8 |
2021 | 1.1 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 5.6 | 0.9 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 2.2 |
* nm = not meaningful
Source: Data from Factset, Datastream
Section 22.3 KEY MARKET DATA
We are now able to fill in the blanks of the chart below, but it will only make sense if you have first assessed the company’s strategy and finances.
We have filled in the data for ArcelorMittal, whose free float is significant (c. $18bn) and is covered by 20 analysts.
ArcelorMittal’s share price is highly dependent on changes in raw material prices, in particular steel and iron ore, the price of which has decreased significantly between 2014 and 2016, and again between 2018 and 2019 as a result of trade tensions between China and the United States. As a result, ArcelorMittal’s share price was halved between end 2014 and end 2015, before being multiplied by 3.5 since its low of February 2016, following which it then crashed by 50% from its highs of early 2018 and was again multiplied by 3 from a low point in May 2020. This is a cyclical investment!
In 2018, the payment of a symbolic dividend started again, after having stopped in 2016, given its negative free cash flows. Payment of dividend was again suspended in 2020 and resumed in 2021.
As we noticed earlier, ArcelorMittal does not create value, its ROE (9.4% in 2018) being negative below the return required by shareholders (c. 12% given the risk). Its market capitalisation is therefore below the book value of equity (even if lowered in 2015 by exceptional impairment).
Liquidity is very high, with over 1% of capital exchanged on average every day.
KEY MARKET DATA ON ARCELORMITTAL
Past | Current | Future | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
In $ | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
Adjusted share price | |||||
High | 24.24 | 19.25 | 26.37 | ||
Low | 12.53 | 6.46 | 17.58 | ||
Average or last | 17.54 | 19.16 | 26.37 | ||
Absolute data | |||||
Number of fully diluted shares (m) | 1,021 | 1,080 | 1,080 | ||
Market capitalisation (m) | 17,908 | 20,693 | 28,480 | ||
Equity, group share (m) | 38,521 | 38,280 | 43,885 | 46,054 | 48,165 |
Value of net debt (m) | 19,997 | 14,000 | 11,437 | ||
Enterprise value (m) | 39,999 | 40,690 | 42,480 | ||
Multiples | |||||
Fully diluted EPS | –2.40 | –0.68 | 5.10 | 3.51 | 3.07 |
EPS growth | n.s. | n.s. | n.s. | –31% | –13% |
P/E | n.s. | n.s. | 5.2 | 7.5 | 8.6 |
Operating profit (m) | 1,202 | 451 | 8,334 | 5,664 | 4,872 |
EBIT multiple | 35.3 | n.s. | 5.1 | 7.5 | 8.7 |
Price/book ratio (PBV) | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | ||
Dividend | |||||
Dividend per share (DPS) | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.43 | 0.47 |
DPS growth | n.s. | n.s. | n.s. | 43% | 9% |
Net yield | 1.7% | 0.0% | 1.1% | ||
Payout | –12% | n.s. | 6% | 12% | 15% |
Return | |||||
Beta (β) | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.1 | ||
Risk premium: rM – rF | 6.8% | 10.3% | 8% | ||
Risk-free rate: rF | –0.4% | –0.5% | –0.5% | ||
Required rate of return: kE | 12.5% | 24.2% | 16.3% | ||
Return on equity: rE | –6.4% | –1.9% | 12.6% | ||
Actual return (capital gains and dividends) | –15% | 9% | 39% | ||
Liquidity | |||||
Free float | 62.4% | 64.4% | 64.4% | ||
Share of capital traded daily | 0.55% | 0.54% | 0.62% | ||
Number of analysts covering the stock | 24 | 21 | 20 |
Section 22.4 HOW TO PERFORM A STOCK MARKET ANALYSIS
In order to perform a stock market analysis, we advise readers to follow the following battle plan tailored by Marc Vermeulen:
Readers who are not new to corporate finance are advised to follow on from this chapter by reading Chapter 31, which is the logical continuation of this chapter.
Section 22.5 ADJUSTING PER SHARE DATA FOR TECHNICAL FACTORS
1/ REWRITE HISTORY, IF NECESSARY
“Let’s not mix apples with oranges.” This old saying applies to the adjustment of per share data after the detachment of rights and for free share awards and rights issues which, from a technical point of view, can modify the value of a stock.
(a) Free share awards
Suppose a company decides to double its equity by incorporating its reserves, and issues one new share for each existing share. Each shareholder is then the owner of twice as many shares without having paid additional funds and with no change to the company’s financial structure. The unit value of the shares has simply been divided into two.
Naturally, the company’s equity value will not change, as two shares will be equal to one previously existing share. However, the share price before and after the operation will have to be adjusted to obtain a comparable series.
In this case, simply divide the shares existing after the free share award by two. The adjustment coefficient is 1/2.
More generally, if new shares are issued for N already existing shares, then the adjustment coefficient is as follows:
(b) A rights issue with an exercise price below the current share price
This is the second reason we might have to adjust past per share data. We will go further into detail in Chapter 25, which deals with share offerings.
To subscribe to the new shares, investors must first buy one or more preemptive subscription rights detached from previously existing shares, whose price is theoretically such that it doesn’t matter whether they buy previous existing shares or use the rights to buy new ones. The detachment of the right from the existing shares makes an adjustment necessary.
For a rights issue, the adjustment coefficient is:
If P is the price of the already existing share, E the issue price of the new shares, the number of new shares and N the number of already existing shares, then the adjustment coefficient will be equal to:
To make the adjustment, simply multiply all the share data (e.g. price, EPS, DPS, BV/S) before the detachment by this coefficient.
As you have seen, the adjustment consists in rewriting past stock performance to make it comparable to today and tomorrow, and not the reverse.
2/ THE IMPACT OF FUTURE TRANSACTIONS
When equity-linked securities (convertible bonds, mandatory convertibles, bonds with warrants attached, stock options, etc.) have been issued, financial managers must factor these potential new shares into their per share data. Here again, we must adjust in order to obtain an average number of outstanding shares.
As there is at least potential dilution, we have to assume full conversion in calculating the per share data (EPS, BV/S, etc.) on a fully diluted basis. This is easy to do for convertible bonds (CBs). Simply assume that the CBs have been converted. This increases the number of shares but lowers financing costs, as interest is no longer paid on the CBs.
For warrants (or stock options), two methods can be used. The first method, called the treasury method, is commonly used: it assumes investors will exercise their in-the-money2 warrants and the company will buy back its own shares with the proceeds. The company thus offsets some of the dilution caused by the exercise of the warrants. This is the method recommended by the IASB.
The following example will illustrate the method: on 1 September 2016, Loch Lomond Corporation decided to issue 100,000 equity warrants exercisable from 1 January 2019 to 1 January 2023 at one share at €240 per warrant.
In 2021, EPS is €10m (net income 2021) divided by 1,000,000 (number of shares), i.e. €10.
As of 31 December 2021, Loch Lomond’s share price is €300, all the warrants are in the money and thus are assumed exercised: 100,000 new shares are issued. The exercise of the warrants raises the following sum for the company: 100,000 × €240 = €24,000,000.
The company could use this money to buy back 80,000 of its own shares trading at €300. Fully diluted EPS can be computed as follows:
Note that only in-the-money diluting securities are restated; out-of-the-money securities are not taken into account.
The second method, called the investment of funds method, assumes that all investors will exercise their warrants and that the company will place the proceeds in a financial investment. Let’s go back to that last example and use this method.
In this method, we assume all warrants are exercised by investors and the proceeds are invested at 0.2% after taxes pending use in the company’s industrial projects. Fully diluted EPS would be as follows:
As can be seen, the two methods produce different results as a direct consequence of the different uses of the cash proceeding from the exercise of warrants.
The treasury method can be considered to be the closest to the financial markets, as the main figure it uses is the company’s share price. However, the treasury method assumes that the best investment for a company is to buy back its own shares.